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Relaxation of restrictions Part II

Tokyo

Continuation of the "Relaxation of restrictions" from here.

Please note that all mod warnings and threadbans carry through from the previous thread.

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tobefrank321

Arghus wrote: »

If we break the chains of community transmission, it is possible that we can avoid a second surge. At least we are giving ourselves the best possible chance.

At the moment, if we lift restrictions where we are - in terms of active cases in the community - we have no chance of not going right back to square one.

Some form of restrictions might make sense longer term. It may make sense to limit travel from Dublin or other hotspots to the rest of the country until we have a vaccine. But within local communities I'm not sure there's much value to limiting economic activity or keeping places closed.

Alternatively we can all pull on the green jersey and say we are all in this together.

There's no easy answers.

Arghus

tobefrank321 wrote: »

There's still a large number of people with their head in the sand.

There's actually people who believe if we lockdown for another 2 months we'll avoid a surge.

Of course we won't avoid a surge. It doesnt matter how long you lock down for as soon as you lift restrictions a surge comes.

Thats why you dont lift restrictions on vulnerable categories.

You're putting words in people's mouths now.

No one is saying to continue lockdown for another two months - which simply isn't possible. I think the absolute max that people might sustain would be another three weeks.

And that could make a huge difference in terms of reducing the R0 number. It's not impossible to eradicate community transmission within that time frame if you consider how much we've reduced the R0 rate in just over a month.

Of course it makes a difference how long you lock down for. There's a reason we locked down for several weeks instead of just a day or two.

JRant

stephenjmcd wrote: »

So on this day last week 29th April, the confirmed cases in hospital were, 8am - 760 , 2pm 751 and 8pm - 743

Today that was 8am- 657 , 2pm - 655 & 8pm 618

And how many in that figure are elderly / special needs who can't be released back to their nursing or residential home?

_Kaiser_

AdamD wrote: »

Some people in here really long for authoritarian ****

I don't think it's just that to be honest. There's several types of people here :

- those who are genuinely deeply afraid of this virus and assume the worst case scenarios as a starting point. To those, anything less seems reckless

- those who naturally submit to authority without question or analysis. The same types who think someone doing 10 km/h over on the motorway is a dangerous maniac

- those who are only concerned about the impact on them. Their ability to go to the pub and such and will justify their stance accordingly

- those who have a more balanced approach, and who recognise that while the medical risk is serious and real, it cannot be the only factor used in determining the approach for the majority. A majority who are low risk, and where those who aren't can be supported (in fact better) through other means

The reality is that the medical experts will never be "happy" with taking any chances so long as the virus exists. That's fine. That's their job after all - heal the sick and do no harm. No issue with that

But there's more to consider here. There's the wellbeing of those who aren't at significant risk, the disastrous effects on employment and the economy, the erosion of public support and buy in for continued lockdown measures being foremost.

For those we have a Government who we trust to balance the medical advice against those equally important other considerations. Unfortunately the Government is an outgoing one and one which was particularly weak anyway.
As such they are extremely reluctant to take any decision that they may be held to account for later. The Government may be on the way out, but most of the TD's plan to stick around a long while yet.

But as I said weeks ago, we've now hit a point where it's critical we move from outright containment to risk management and acceptance if we're to prevent the total collapse of the economy and the very real social and personal effects it'll have on EVERYONE - young, old, sick, healthy alike.

ShineOn7

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Some of his posts would be laughable if the subject wasn't so serious.

Brazil has 9 times fewer deaths per capita than us.

Depends on:

How they're reporting their Covid mortalities
How much they're lying

JRant

Arghus wrote: »

You're putting words in people's mouths now.

No one is saying to continue lockdown for another two months - which simply isn't possible. I think the absolute max that people might sustain would be another three weeks.

And that could make a huge difference in terms of reducing the R0 number. It's not impossible to eradicate community transmission within that time frame if you consider how much we've reduced the R0 rate in just over a month.

Of course it makes a difference how long you lock down for. There's a reason we locked down for several weeks instead of just a day or two.

The government are though, that's the problem for many.

There will be no real "easing" of restrictions until mid July at the earliest according to their own road map. You might be allowed see your family by then, sure you might even be lucky enough to get a haircut but that's about the size of it. Even phase 5 is a complete cod.

We have no defined metrics on when we move to the next phase of back for that matter. Well apart the CMO and his vague "the numbers are not where we want them to do". He should bloody well tell us what the numbers should be not giving us vague wishy-washy BS.

ShineOn7

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Source?

And also what proportion of all deaths?

"Why does Covid-19 kill some young, healthy people—and spare others?"

https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2020/04/13/covid-young-people

I'm sure you'll post some nonsense to justify young, healthy people dying of it though

tobefrank321

JRant wrote: »

And how many in that figure are elderly / special needs who can't be released back to their nursing or residential home?

If they are negative it shouldn't be a problem. If they are released back while positive it would be criminally negligent especially to nursing homes.

stephenjmcd

JRant wrote: »

And how many in that figure are elderly / special needs who can't be released back to their nursing or residential home?

There wont be a breakdown of that sort of information, it's a high level overview of the health systems capacity.

One would assume though that long term care residents do make up a proportion of those in hospital, albeit an unknown amount.

In saying that the step down facilities in city west for example would be available.

keynes

tobefrank321 wrote: »

There's still a large number of people with their head in the sand.

There's actually people who believe if we lockdown for another 2 months we'll avoid a surge.

This seems to include our medical experts who subconsciously are trying to make amends for all their initial mistakes by being ultra conservative now. A lockdown for another two months or beyond arguably makes matters worse since it pushes the inevitable into the autumn/winter

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1257723650469441536

Good man Andrew.

easypazz

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1257723650469441536

Good man Andrew.

Politician telling voters what they want to hear.

Arghus

JRant wrote: »

Let's take that to it's logical conclusion though. We have 1,000's walking around with it now. Many unwittingly going to work, shops, supermarkets with it. Where's this dreaded surge that we should be seeing now?

No sane person is looking for a complete lifting of all restrictions, that would be daft. What we can do is give the population face masks to wear if they so choose, reinforce the message around hand hygiene / social distancing and get back to the business of living.

We do have undiagnosed/ asymptomatic people in the community, but I would say up until 7-10 days ago, people, generally, were still keeping to the guidelines, which will still bring down the chances of increasing the rates of infection. But, since the weekend, a lot of people are back moving about, milling around with people again.

I work in a retail store and I see with my own eyes every single day that I am there that people are getting more and more relaxed over time and not heeding the message re hand hygiene, cough etiquette and especially social distancing. I have zero faith that enough people will follow the guidelines to actually make them effective. I see it. People don't. Three or four weeks ago there was an effort being made by the public, but that started to decline about a fortnight ago and things were noticably back to normal this weekend.

Arghus

JRant wrote: »

The government are though, that's the problem for many.

There will be no real "easing" of restrictions until mid July at the earliest according to their own road map. You might be allowed see your family by then, sure you might even be lucky enough to get a haircut but that's about the size of it. Even phase 5 is a complete cod.

We have no defined metrics on when we move to the next phase of back for that matter. Well apart the CMO and his vague "the numbers are not where we want them to do". He should bloody well tell us what the numbers should be not giving us vague wishy-washy BS.

I agree. We need clearly defined metrics - that's a communication failure on the part of the authorities.

tobefrank321

ShineOn7 wrote: »

"Why does Covid-19 kill some young, healthy people—and spare others?"

https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2020/04/13/covid-young-people

I'm sure you'll post some nonsense to justify young, healthy people dying of it though

Still no proportion of the total deaths or even the fatality rate among the young healthy.

The fatality rate of covid 19 is estimated at about 0.5%. Sone studies say slightly higher or lower but the average appears to be 0.5%.

That includes a huge proportion of elderly and those with underlyi g conditions. Remove them and the fatality rate is much lower for the ylunf and healthy.

In Ireland for example of 6300 health workers only 5 have died. And its possible some had underlying conditions.

Thats a fatality rate of about 0.08% in a large sample of 6300.

Steve F

Arghus wrote: »

We do have undiagnosed/ asymptomatic people in the community, but I would say up until 7-10 days ago, people, generally, were still keeping to the guidelines, which will still bring down the chances of increasing the rates of infection. But, since the weekend, a lot of people are back moving about, milling around with people again.

I work in a retail store and I see with my own eyes every single day that I am there that people are getting more and more relaxed over time and not heeding the message re hand hygiene, cough etiquette and especially social distancing. I have zero faith that enough people will follow the guidelines to actually make them effective. I see it. People don't. Three or four weeks ago there was an effort being made by the public, but that started to decline about a fortnight ago and things were noticably back to normal this weekend.

Some people are in for a big shock I think ☹️

JRant

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1257723650469441536

Good man Andrew.

Perhaps he should have thought about that mantra while he was slashing funding to hospitals in New York since he became governor.

keynes

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

As such they are extremely reluctant to take any decision that they may be held to account for later. The Government may be on the way out, but most of the TD's plan to stick around a long while yet.

Assuming Michael Martin and FF will be the face of the next gov, FG have every incentive to run up debt and paralyze them fiscally. A good deal of politics involved as well in prolonging the lockdown.

ShineOn7

Arghus wrote: »

I work in a retail store and I see with my own eyes every single day that I am there that people are getting more and more relaxed over time and not heeding the message re hand hygiene, cough etiquette and especially social distancing. I have zero faith that enough people will follow the guidelines to actually make them effective. I see it. People don't. Three or four weeks ago there was an effort being made by the public, but that started to decline about a fortnight ago and things were noticably back to normal this weekend.

I wonder, if other country's people are slacking already (obviously parts of America are now completely rebelling against authority)

Or are we just a nation of gobshítes when it comes to not following the rules?

keynes

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Still no proportion of the total deaths or even the fatality rate among the young healthy.

The fatality rate of covid 19 is estimated at about 0.5%. Sone studies say slightly higher or lower but the average appears to be 0.5%.

If there was such a metric, the quality-adjusted fatality rate (in terms of quality of lost life) would be considerably less.

_Kaiser_

keynes wrote: »

Assuming Michael Martin and FF will be the face of the next gov, FG have every incentive to run up debt and paralyze them fiscally. A good deal of politics involved as well in prolonging the lockdown.

If SF were taking over I'd agree with that analysis, but FG/FF aren't so blind as to not realise that most people see this current dance for what it is - a marriage of convenience to keep the others out.

"Luckily" for them, most voters fear SF and the alphabet soup left in Government more than they do what's perceived as more of the same - especially now.

However, if they don't change their tack on the core issues when we've gotten a handle on the impact of Covid 19 (which will be years at the earliest), SF will sweep the board next time out.

That last point may be the saving grace for the rest of us as the political survival of FF and FG is far more important to them than anything else.

Cork Boy 53

keynes wrote: »

Assuming Michael Martin and FF will be the face of the next gov, FG have every incentive to run up debt and paralyze them fiscally. A good deal of politics involved as well in prolonging the lockdown.

Eh hello. FF can not go into government without the support of FG be that in a full coalition or a reverse confidence and supply agreement and even then need the Greens or another combination of smaller parties. What political incentive would there be for FG to do what you are suggesting?

Arghus

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I wonder, if other country's people are slacking already (obviously parts of America are now completely rebelling against authority)

Or are we just a nation of gobshítes when it comes to not following the rules?

I don't know if we're a nation of gob****es, but I think culturally we're not disposed to following rules to the letter if they inconvenience us and we have an easy going, ah it'll be grand, attitude.

Which can have it's advantages in normal circumstances - I like that we have a relaxed enough approach to life. It's great to be back in Ireland after a period away, because everyone is nicely laid back.

But it's not the greatest attitude in these circumstances.

mandrake04

Deleted User wrote: »

We already have the same mandatory quarantine for arrivals as many other countries. You have to state where you will be self quarantining and you will be checked by the Gardaí to ensure you are there over the next 14 days

I don’t think that’s good enough, putting people in a hotel guarantees protecting every else and charge the individual for it ensures the are reminded of the seriousness of the situation.

I know you won’t agree or want to believe this could happen because of your personal situation but at some stage the government will get jack of extending the lockdown and they will do this.

They done it in other countries that have been successful at reducing numbers, it comes to the point governments don’t trust minority of citizens anymore than minority of citizens trust government. But they will push for the greater good and the majority will support them.

ShineOn7

Arghus wrote: »

I don't know if we're a nation of gob****es, but I think culturally we're not disposed to following rules to the letter if they inconvenience us and we have an easy going, ah it'll be grand, attitude.

Yes I think I meant more this

"Ah it'll be grand" + the Irish being social animals + us having a history of rebelling = a total and utter fúcking disaster waiting to happen

gozunda

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Given the statistics available and the fact that there is no vaccine , it’s unbelievable that we are not cocooning the elders. They are the ones making up over 90% of the deaths. It’s also unbelievable that we lockdown people at very little risk while the lockdown destroys our country. Over 1m on the dole. Complete mismanagement. And then we have Tony telling us that the numbers are not good enough. The same Tony that wanted to cover up the cervical scandal and the same Tony that wanted the visiting ban lifted in nursing homes less than 2 months ago. If we lockdown again without even entering phase 1, which is still practically lockdown anyways, we’ll be an absolute laughing stock.

Jac

A couple of small points there

1. The elderly and those with LTI who live independently are being advised to cocoon. Most I know are observing this to be fair

2. Those residents in care homes (elderly and others) cannot effectively cocoon or fully socially isolate due to the nature of such settings Ie they are effectivrly living in large groups which are almost impossible to keep completely apart for operational reasons.

3. Such care homes are not isolated from the wider community because of staff etc who travel to and from such places and also necessary provisioning. It only takes one single asymptomatic or pre symptomatic person coming in to these settings to cause the infection to spread like wildfire.

4. Everyone can get the disease. Not just the elderly. A significant proportion of those hospitalised are under 65

5. The issue of care homes is prevalent in many countries worldwide - primarily I believe because of point 2 above

6. You don't like 'Tony' - grand. But no matter who it is telling us the numbers are not good enough - the CMO or whoever It remains - they're not. The UK has made the same statement regarding it's current situation.

7. There is no 'laughing stock' when the real risk is to our health services being potentially overwhelmed and to the numbers in the wider community continuing to increase.

8. No there is no current vaccine - however we continue to attempt to control the numbers infected both in the wider community and elsewhere .

9. The current restrictions are not soley about 'deaths' see no. 7.

10. We are not the only country with restrictions - however the direction here to 'stay at home was implemented approx 2 weeks after most other EU countries. Yes restrictions will be rolled back as elsewhere as things hopefully improve. That needs time. Impatience and panic will not help however

growleaves

"Ah it'll be grand" + the Irish being social animals + us having a history of rebelling = a total and utter fúcking disaster waiting to happen

Its our ancestors who were rebels. I don't think the average Irish person of today is particularly rebellious.

Cork Boy 53

growleaves wrote: »

Its our ancestors who were rebels. I don't think the average Irish person of today is particularly rebellious.

Really? Tell that to the anti water charges "no way we won`t pay" brigade just to take one recent example.

Tell me how

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Unless you are over 80 and/or are clinically obese or have a number of serious underlying conditions there's probably more chance of you dying in a plane crash than from covid 19.

Healthy people need to get over the fear of covid 19. If you have a healthy immune system you will be fine.

Be concerned for the seriously ill who you should be distancing from in any case.

Its very likely many Irish people already had covid 19 and didn't even know it.

Can you explain to me how it is you feel people should listen to this view when it seems to be one that virtually none of the medical professionals in the country hold?

Thanks.

Arghus

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Really? Tell that to the anti water charges "no way we won`t pay" brigade just to take one recent example.

We are getting off topic at bit here but -

One of the reasons anti water charges became such a hot topic was because we'd, generally, not rebelled during years of austerity and eventually anti-water charges became a catch all issue for people to vent their years worth of pent up frustration at the government.

We're kinda rebellious in this country. We talk a lot about it. But rebellion usually means maybe following a rule maybe 70% of the time - but we don't do mass civil disobedience like other countries.