Relaxation of restrictions Part II

JRant wrote: »

The government are though, that's the problem for many.

There will be no real "easing" of restrictions until mid July at the earliest according to their own road map. You might be allowed see your family by then, sure you might even be lucky enough to get a haircut but that's about the size of it. Even phase 5 is a complete cod.

We have no defined metrics on when we move to the next phase of back for that matter. Well apart the CMO and his vague "the numbers are not where we want them to do". He should bloody well tell us what the numbers should be not giving us vague wishy-washy BS.

I agree. We need clearly defined metrics - that's a communication failure on the part of the authorities.

JRant wrote: »

Let's take that to it's logical conclusion though. We have 1,000's walking around with it now. Many unwittingly going to work, shops, supermarkets with it. Where's this dreaded surge that we should be seeing now?

No sane person is looking for a complete lifting of all restrictions, that would be daft. What we can do is give the population face masks to wear if they so choose, reinforce the message around hand hygiene / social distancing and get back to the business of living.

We do have undiagnosed/ asymptomatic people in the community, but I would say up until 7-10 days ago, people, generally, were still keeping to the guidelines, which will still bring down the chances of increasing the rates of infection. But, since the weekend, a lot of people are back moving about, milling around with people again.

I work in a retail store and I see with my own eyes every single day that I am there that people are getting more and more relaxed over time and not heeding the message re hand hygiene, cough etiquette and especially social distancing. I have zero faith that enough people will follow the guidelines to actually make them effective. I see it. People don't. Three or four weeks ago there was an effort being made by the public, but that started to decline about a fortnight ago and things were noticably back to normal this weekend.

easypazz

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1257723650469441536

Good man Andrew.

Politician telling voters what they want to hear.

Kermit.de.frog

https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1257723650469441536

Good man Andrew.

keynes

tobefrank321 wrote: »

There's still a large number of people with their head in the sand.

There's actually people who believe if we lockdown for another 2 months we'll avoid a surge.

This seems to include our medical experts who subconsciously are trying to make amends for all their initial mistakes by being ultra conservative now. A lockdown for another two months or beyond arguably makes matters worse since it pushes the inevitable into the autumn/winter

stephenjmcd

JRant wrote: »

And how many in that figure are elderly / special needs who can't be released back to their nursing or residential home?

There wont be a breakdown of that sort of information, it's a high level overview of the health systems capacity.

One would assume though that long term care residents do make up a proportion of those in hospital, albeit an unknown amount.

In saying that the step down facilities in city west for example would be available.

JRant wrote: »

And how many in that figure are elderly / special needs who can't be released back to their nursing or residential home?

If they are negative it shouldn't be a problem. If they are released back while positive it would be criminally negligent especially to nursing homes.

ShineOn7

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Source?

And also what proportion of all deaths?

"Why does Covid-19 kill some young, healthy people—and spare others?"

https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2020/04/13/covid-young-people

I'm sure you'll post some nonsense to justify young, healthy people dying of it though

Arghus wrote: »

You're putting words in people's mouths now.

No one is saying to continue lockdown for another two months - which simply isn't possible. I think the absolute max that people might sustain would be another three weeks.

And that could make a huge difference in terms of reducing the R0 number. It's not impossible to eradicate community transmission within that time frame if you consider how much we've reduced the R0 rate in just over a month.

Of course it makes a difference how long you lock down for. There's a reason we locked down for several weeks instead of just a day or two.

The government are though, that's the problem for many.

There will be no real "easing" of restrictions until mid July at the earliest according to their own road map. You might be allowed see your family by then, sure you might even be lucky enough to get a haircut but that's about the size of it. Even phase 5 is a complete cod.

We have no defined metrics on when we move to the next phase of back for that matter. Well apart the CMO and his vague "the numbers are not where we want them to do". He should bloody well tell us what the numbers should be not giving us vague wishy-washy BS.

ShineOn7

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Some of his posts would be laughable if the subject wasn't so serious.

Brazil has 9 times fewer deaths per capita than us.

Depends on:

How they're reporting their Covid mortalities
How much they're lying

_Kaiser_

AdamD wrote: »

Some people in here really long for authoritarian ****

I don't think it's just that to be honest. There's several types of people here :

- those who are genuinely deeply afraid of this virus and assume the worst case scenarios as a starting point. To those, anything less seems reckless

- those who naturally submit to authority without question or analysis. The same types who think someone doing 10 km/h over on the motorway is a dangerous maniac

- those who are only concerned about the impact on them. Their ability to go to the pub and such and will justify their stance accordingly

- those who have a more balanced approach, and who recognise that while the medical risk is serious and real, it cannot be the only factor used in determining the approach for the majority. A majority who are low risk, and where those who aren't can be supported (in fact better) through other means

The reality is that the medical experts will never be "happy" with taking any chances so long as the virus exists. That's fine. That's their job after all - heal the sick and do no harm. No issue with that

But there's more to consider here. There's the wellbeing of those who aren't at significant risk, the disastrous effects on employment and the economy, the erosion of public support and buy in for continued lockdown measures being foremost.

For those we have a Government who we trust to balance the medical advice against those equally important other considerations. Unfortunately the Government is an outgoing one and one which was particularly weak anyway.
As such they are extremely reluctant to take any decision that they may be held to account for later. The Government may be on the way out, but most of the TD's plan to stick around a long while yet.

But as I said weeks ago, we've now hit a point where it's critical we move from outright containment to risk management and acceptance if we're to prevent the total collapse of the economy and the very real social and personal effects it'll have on EVERYONE - young, old, sick, healthy alike.

stephenjmcd wrote: »

So on this day last week 29th April, the confirmed cases in hospital were, 8am - 760 , 2pm 751 and 8pm - 743

Today that was 8am- 657 , 2pm - 655 & 8pm 618

And how many in that figure are elderly / special needs who can't be released back to their nursing or residential home?

tobefrank321 wrote: »

There's still a large number of people with their head in the sand.

There's actually people who believe if we lockdown for another 2 months we'll avoid a surge.

Of course we won't avoid a surge. It doesnt matter how long you lock down for as soon as you lift restrictions a surge comes.

Thats why you dont lift restrictions on vulnerable categories.

You're putting words in people's mouths now.

No one is saying to continue lockdown for another two months - which simply isn't possible. I think the absolute max that people might sustain would be another three weeks.

And that could make a huge difference in terms of reducing the R0 number. It's not impossible to eradicate community transmission within that time frame if you consider how much we've reduced the R0 rate in just over a month.

Of course it makes a difference how long you lock down for. There's a reason we locked down for several weeks instead of just a day or two.

Arghus wrote: »

If we break the chains of community transmission, it is possible that we can avoid a second surge. At least we are giving ourselves the best possible chance.

At the moment, if we lift restrictions where we are - in terms of active cases in the community - we have no chance of not going right back to square one.

Some form of restrictions might make sense longer term. It may make sense to limit travel from Dublin or other hotspots to the rest of the country until we have a vaccine. But within local communities I'm not sure there's much value to limiting economic activity or keeping places closed.

Alternatively we can all pull on the green jersey and say we are all in this together.

There's no easy answers.

stateofflux

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Yes I'll get on a plane as soon as borders are open and flights start running properly again. Each to their own but I fully intend on travelling again. Cant put life on hold and hide away awaiting a vaccine that may not come

This. when things calm down a bit i'm straight to Portugal.

When i am there i will contemplate the end of the world with the sound of the waves lapping, sunsets and large brandy's

Arghus wrote: »

One of the posters on here last night was banging on about what Prof Michael O' Keefe was saying last night on The Tonight Show, spouting opinions completely at odds with the rest of the medical experts in the country

I wonder were they watching Dr. Thomas Ryan - whose specialty is immunology, not ophthalmology, as in the case with Prof. O' Keefe. - had to say on the same show tonight. Probably not, I'd imagine: because they'll only listen to opinions that agree with what they want to hear.

He spelled it out pretty clearly.

We have thousands of active cases still walking around and people are beginning to think it's mission accomplished and making noises about the economy. Even though going back to easing restrictions right now will inevitably lead to a second surge, second lockdown and even more damage to the economy in the long term.

Let's take that to it's logical conclusion though. We have 1,000's walking around with it now. Many unwittingly going to work, shops, supermarkets with it. Where's this dreaded surge that we should be seeing now?

No sane person is looking for a complete lifting of all restrictions, that would be daft. What we can do is give the population face masks to wear if they so choose, reenforce the message around hand hygiene / social distancing and get back to the business of living.

Its starting to sink in with most experts that longterm lockdowns are not sustainable for a number of reasons and we have to learn to live with and adapt to covid 19. Already a number are suggesting it will circulate like the annual flu.

A nice gift from China to mankind but there's not much we can do about it.

easypazz

Arghus wrote: »

People give out about the failure to protect nursing homes - and then say we should just get on with it and lift restrictions, because it only really effects people in nursing homes or with underlying conditions.

That's some quare cognitive dissonance.

Nobody is suggesting that though, it would be silly.

stephenjmcd

giveitholly wrote: »

Correct me if I am wrong but was the confirmed cases being treated in hospital over 800 only a couple of days ago?

So on this day last week 29th April, the confirmed cases in hospital were, 8am - 760 , 2pm 751 and 8pm - 743

Today that was 8am- 657 , 2pm - 655 & 8pm 618

There's still a large number of people with their head in the sand.

There's actually people who believe if we lockdown for another 2 months we'll avoid a surge.

Of course we won't avoid a surge. It doesnt matter how long you lock down for as soon as you lift restrictions a surge comes.

Thats why you dont lift restrictions on vulnerable categories.

[Deleted User]

easypazz wrote: »

It costs lives with missed cancer screening etc.

Suggest you watch last nights prime time.

Yes,and i know a few who have had cancer treatments put back over this too (most have started now afaik)

We are severly lucky a pure cathasphoric event hasnt happened here,people seem completly willing to ignore the effect this has had on countries with better healthcare than us

They were digging mass graves in NY,english have relied to all sorts of accounting tricks to keep their numbers low (so have several other countries tbf).....italy one of best healthcares in world complelty collasped under strain,spain & france havnt fared much better...fcuk knows how bad its gotten in iran,but reports certainly are horriffic

Its not inconceivable we would be well north of 4K deaths by now (total for 30 years of troubles was 3.5K for context)......we are after escaping by skin of teeth here from a complete diaster,

tobefrank321 wrote: »

So you think there will be no surge when we eventually lift restrictions?

What do you think will happen?

If we break the chains of community transmission, it is possible that we can avoid a second surge. At least we are giving ourselves the best possible chance.

At the moment, if we lift restrictions where we are - in terms of active cases in the community - we have no chance of not going right back to square one.

easypazz

gozunda wrote: »

So it's all a big con? I get you.

So you have taken reality and replaced it with one of your own imagination?

Thats lovely. Hope it works out for you ...

Ok gloomer

[Deleted User]

Given the statistics available and the fact that there is no vaccine , it’s unbelievable that we are not cocooning the elders. They are the ones making up over 90% of the deaths.

It’s also unbelievable that we lockdown people at very little risk while the lockdown destroys our country. Over 1m on the dole.

Complete mismanagement.

And then we have Tony telling us that the numbers are not good enough. The same Tony that wanted to cover up the cervical scandal and the same Tony that wanted the visiting ban lifted in nursing homes less than 2 months ago.

If we lockdown again without even entering phase 1, which is still practically lockdown anyways, we’ll be an absolute laughing stock.

na1

alwald wrote: »

I think that you should stop looking at any invalid excuse, like unsued penney's stock, to justify lifting the restrictions...those decisions are left to the professionals

Was the decision to bail out private banks in 2009 made by professionals?

tobefrank321 wrote: »

You're just scaremongering for the sake of it now.

Any chance you post something to balance it? Eg potential deaths from untreated cancers? Mass unemployment as the result of lockdowns?

I won't hold my breath.

Here's some balance from the RTE website

https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2020/0505/1136496-death-notices-ireland-coronavirus/

Overall trend is slightly up, many counties are down. Dublin has a 20% increase at around 1200 deaths. Cork's trend is down compared to it's peak year. Strangely some of the border counties have seen double, up to 80 deaths.

Considering most deaths are in the high 70's and low 80's years of age it will be interesting to see what the year on year trend is.

gozunda

tobefrank321 wrote: »

You're just scaremongering for the sake of it now.

Any chance you post something to balance it? Eg potential deaths from untreated cancers? Mass unemployment as the result of lockdowns?

I won't hold my breath.

Well to be fair Kermit didnt write the article and most likley is not one of the experts who made that prediction.

So you think we should all just moan about other things generally for a bit of balance like?

Interesting viewpoint.

[Deleted User]

mandrake04 wrote: »

People with similar attitude is why the numbers are going down so slow.

There’s a simple way around it, lots of hotels in Dublin will be empty as tourism for this year is buried.

Anyone who ‘chooses’ to go on holiday against advice has to be forced into 14 days isolation in hotel paid by the government. The government can recoup the costs through adding this cost to the individuals tax.

We already have the same mandatory quarantine for arrivals as many other countries. You have to state where you will be self quarantining and you will be checked by the Gardaí to ensure you are there over the next 14 days

Kermit.de.frog

SusieBlue wrote: »

2/10, try harder. Please quote where I said that restrictions should be lifted because of unused Penney’s summer stock. I’ll wait.

If you shop in Penny's, you shop in Penny's.

It's nothing to be ashamed of.