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Relaxation of restrictions Part II

Tokyo

Continuation of the "Relaxation of restrictions" from here.

Please note that all mod warnings and threadbans carry through from the previous thread.

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alwald

tobefrank321 wrote: »

If we got numbers down to Austrian levels or even 50 cases a day, something which would take 2 months to do and wreck our economy, as soon as a lockdown is lifted the R0 would go up and you'd be at 400 cases a day again in a month. You'd then need another 3 month lockdown to get us to 50 cases a day. And so on. By which stage we'll be far far beyond the point of saving our economy.

Have you done any modelling to get to these figures and predictions or are you just pulling random figures to suit your argumentation?

tobefrank321

gozunda wrote: »

Unfortunately some people just don't seem to give a **** tbh

As has been repeated many times unless you are over 80 and or have chronic underlying conditions you are likely to be fine.

Are you in these categories?

easypazz

gozunda wrote: »

Unfortunately some people just don't seem to give a **** tbh

I'd say more "a lot" than "some" at this stage.

Stheno

tobefrank321 wrote: »

As has been repeated many times unless you are over 80 and or have chronic underlying conditions you are likely to be fine.

Are you in these categories?

Obesity in the biggest risk factor for those under 60 though

tobefrank321

alwald wrote: »

Have you done any modelling to get to these figures and predictions or are you just pulling random figures to suit your argumentation?

Nope. Nolan and co have. R0 is currently 0.5 according to them, not me. Prior to restrictions it was as high as 4. You do the maths.

timmy_mallet

SusieBlue wrote: »

I saw the other day that each Penney’s store has on average 2.5 million euro worth of unsold spring/summer stock sitting in their warehouses.
When you think of how many stores they have that must be a staggering amount of money down the drain.

It’s not only a massive waste of money spent on stock they couldn’t sell, from an environmental point of view by the time things reopen that stock will be out of season so most of it is going to end up in a landfill.
It’s such a waste.

Save it for SS23, Holohan might give us the nod by then, sure nobody is buying clothes or being seen, so they can wheel it out then and nobody the wiser *taps nose*

Kermit.de.frog

tobefrank321 wrote: »

At some stage you have to accept the game is up for general containment and its better to let it run its course among the healthy while isolating the very high risk categories.

Yes, let's be like Brazil, because it's working out so well for them, isn't it?

alwald

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Nope. Nolan and co have. R0 is currently 0.5 according to them, not me. Prior to restrictions it was as high as 4. You do the maths.

I am talking about the rest of your waffle predicting 400 cases and whatnot...stop pulling figures from your head to suit your argumentation.

JRant

Watching the tonight show on TV3. A doctor and a scientist on the panel. Both of the opinion that restrictions / social distancing will be in place for 18 months minimum. Schools, sports etc to be seriously curtailed until and vaccine or treatment is found.
That is exactly why we need more than just medical personnel in the decision making of how and when we get back to a functioning society.

I completely understand where they are coming from and they are obviously completely risk adverse but it is pure madness to let them be the only ones making these decisions.

LiquidZeb

normanoffside wrote: »

Nice to have engaged you again, still waiting for your reply as to why none of your friends gave any sympathy to the poster with the surgery cancelled last night.

How do you feel about that?

Probably trying to think of a way to shoehorn pubs into the conversation.

tobefrank321

ShineOn7 wrote: »

What jaysus planet are you on?!

One where scaremongering isn't the norm.

alwald

SusieBlue wrote: »

I saw the other day that each Penney’s store has on average 2.5 million euro worth of unsold spring/summer stock sitting in their warehouses.
When you think of how many stores they have that must be a staggering amount of money down the drain.

It’s not only a massive waste of money spent on stock they couldn’t sell, from an environmental point of view by the time things reopen that stock will be out of season so most of it is going to end up in a landfill.
It’s such a waste.

The world is dealing with a pandemic and you are focused on penney's summer stock

Cork Boy 53

alwald wrote: »

This is proof that you should never listen to someone's advice on internet/boards...how can you be certain that anyone with a healthy immune system won't die from it?

No one can be and many supposedly previously healthy individuals are now lying in graves or have been cremated as a result of being infected with the virus.

tobefrank321

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Yes, let's be like Brazil, because it's working out so well for them, isn't it?

They didn't cocoon their vulnerable I'm guessing.

I'm also guessing their deaths per million is far lower than ours?

In fact I just checked now. Despite having a population 45 times ours, they have 6 times our deaths.

ShineOn7

tobefrank321 wrote: »

One where scaremongering isn't the norm.

People under 50 with healthy immune systems have died of this. So there goes your "logic"

SusieBlue

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

So what are you suggesting now? That social distancing should be done away with because it doesn`t suit some stores` business model? Jesus!

I think he was suggesting that businesses were not designed and buildings weren’t planned with social distancing in mind.
Which will mean that implementing these measures, now that they’re needed, will be a death sentence for many of them. Because they were never designed to operate with a lesser capacity and they won’t be able to remain liquid with the new restrictions in place.

timmy_mallet

alwald wrote: »

The world is dealing with a pandemic and you are focused on penney's summer stock

Yes, we are all 'focussed' on that. Cant think of anything else to be honest.

LiquidZeb

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Yes, let's be like Brazil, because it's working out so well for them, isn't it?

Yeah because Brazil with nearly 200 million people and two of the largest cities on Earth with Rio and sao paolo is just like Ireland. And you're the crowd mocking people for comparing Ireland to Sweden?

Kermit.de.frog

Health experts express growing dread over second wave of coronavirus deaths

Health experts are expressing growing dread over what they say is an all-but-certain second wave of deaths and infections that could force governments around the world to clamp back down, just as lockdowns loosen.

“We’re risking a backslide that will be intolerable,” said Dr Ian Lipkin of Columbia University’s Centre for Infection and Immunity.

Around the world, German authorities began drawing up plans in case of a resurgence of the virus.

Experts in Italy urged intensified efforts to identify new victims and trace their contacts.

And France, which has not yet eased its lockdown, has already worked up a “reconfinement plan” in the event of a new wave.

“There will be a second wave, but the problem is to which extent. Is it a small wave or a big wave? It’s too early to say,” said Olivier Schwartz, head of the virus unit at France’s Pasteur Institute.

...

From the Examiner https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/world/health-experts-express-growing-dread-over-second-wave-of-coronavirus-deaths-998085.html

Meanwhile Merkel reins in German states trying to open up too fast

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/06/angela-merkel-germany-states-rules-on-easing-coronavirus-lockdown

the German leader said relaxing physical distancing rules would only be possible if the country adhered to a new “emergency mechanism”, whereby hospitals, care homes or entire municipalities would be put under lockdown if they accumulatively registered more than 50 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants within seven days.

timmy_mallet

SusieBlue wrote: »

I think he was suggesting that businesses were not designed and buildings weren’t planned with social distancing in mind.
Which will mean that implementing these measures, now that they’re needed, will be a death sentence for many of them. Because they were never designed to operate with a lesser capacity and they won’t be able to remain liquid with the new restrictions in place.

You've more patience than me.

SusieBlue

alwald wrote: »

The world is dealing with a pandemic and you are focused on penney's summer stock

Stop being so deliberately obtuse there, good lad now.

[Deleted User]

tobefrank321 wrote: »

One where scaremongering isn't the norm.

Ìts a highly contagious virus,which has killed 1800 on the island?

We likely be looking at near on that figure,every 2 weeks with no lockdown,plus more when our health service would likely have collasped like italys??

If the reopening takes a wee while longer,what harm??
This virus hasnt got any safer and every precaution is saving lives,we lost enough people to this

gozunda

tobefrank321 wrote: »

As has been repeated many times unless you are over 80 and or have chronic underlying conditions you are likely to be fine.

Are you in these categories?

I'll take it that you are not a medical professional. Afaik boards TOU precludes anyone giving medical advice for that very reason. So excuse me if I take your opinions on Covid-19 and put them where they belong.

And just so we get this straight - so let's say you become infected whilst flying off on your holidays to Costa-del-wherever. And you infect the chamber maid at the hotel who unfortunately passes it on to her elderly mother or a child who has asthma? Oh and you also get locked up in two weeks quarantine for your efforts. Would everything be 'just fine' then it would you be one of the above?

growleaves

If this first series of lockdowns are immediately followed by another series of lockdowns into the winter then European societies will begin to collapse.

At this point I'm not sure how to feel about it since it seems it isn't an intellectual mistake but something more akin to mass suicide. Civillisations don't last forever anyway but this will be quite a rapid end.

tobefrank321

ShineOn7 wrote: »

People under 50 with healthy immune systems have died of this. So there goes your "logic"

Source?

And also what proportion of all deaths?

mandrake04

gozunda wrote: »

Unfortunately some people just don't seem to give a **** tbh

People with similar attitude is why the numbers are going down so slow.

There’s a simple way around it, lots of hotels in Dublin will be empty as tourism for this year is buried.

Anyone who ‘chooses’ to go on holiday against advice has to be forced into 14 days isolation in hotel paid by the government. The government can recoup the costs through adding this cost to the individuals tax.

gozunda

easypazz wrote: »

I'd say more "a lot" than "some" at this stage.

Truely? You surprise me.

easypazz

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

No one can be and many supposedly previously healthy individuals are now lying in graves or have been cremated as a result of being infected with the virus.

Very few though.

alwald

SusieBlue wrote: »

Stop being so deliberately obtuse there, good lad now.

I think that you should stop looking at any invalid excuse, like unsued penney's stock, to justify lifting the restrictions...those decisions are left to the professionals who are qualified to make decisions on C-19 instead of waffling about clothing stock

tobefrank321

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Health experts express growing dread over second wave of coronavirus deaths

From the Examiner https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/world/health-experts-express-growing-dread-over-second-wave-of-coronavirus-deaths-998085.html

Meanwhile Merkel reins in German states trying to open up too fast

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/06/angela-merkel-germany-states-rules-on-easing-coronavirus-lockdown

You're just scaremongering for the sake of it now.

Any chance you post something to balance it? Eg potential deaths from untreated cancers? Mass unemployment as the result of lockdowns?

I won't hold my breath.