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Relaxation of restrictions Part II

Tokyo

Continuation of the "Relaxation of restrictions" from here.

Please note that all mod warnings and threadbans carry through from the previous thread.

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Ginger n Lemon

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The statement that those countries have "opened up their economies" is not true either.

They have taken minimal initial steps in a graduated approach each to varying degrees. They are not functioning normally, far from it.

And they are on notice to increase the measures they lift over the next few months again should cases and transmission spike.

There is a lot of simplistic fake news going around (mostly by anti government illumunati cranks) that's being picked up by reasonably intelligent people who just have certain vulnerabilities to the impact (employment or whatever)...and that's fine, some are worried.

It does not change the reality of the situation though and ridiculous remedies like "how many people have died since April 21st" are not impressive either given the nature of the risks.

It's all ludicrous argument but you have to except that. It's a tiny minority and no matter what you say they don't listen anyway.

So just let them roll with it in my humble opinion.

It does not change anything.

Nature of the risks? is this Irish for "Lets stay at home and put young generation into poverty?"

Kermit, has any country on this planet experienced a second wave? If no, are you just scaring us and want us to be in Guinness world book of records for longest lockdown?

Class MayDresser

When will horse racing return to the picture anyone guess? It's the add on s that actually come with the sport holding it back I'd suppose.

What Username Guidelines

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Kermit could we work with facts please instead of science? Science predicted 65,000 dead from Swine flu in UK, 392 died. So, pass.

Ok so Denmark, Germany, Austria, Czech Republic, Norway, Finland have all opened up their economies, schools opened since 14th of April in Denmark, barbers 21st of April.

Where are those spikes? where is the 2nd wave?? Why are thousands of people not dying in those countries? Why is Bundesliga going to play its games on 16th of May, are they mad?

Ohhh the dreaded 2nd wave, must be applicable in Ireland only?

The governments roadmap is way too slow imo, they seem to think they can afford it and it will work, but if we have to roll back it will be even more of an economic nightmare. One thing to note on those other countries opening up, is that mask wearing seems to be common at least on public transport and in shops. Here, they're only gonna recommend it, if at all, and you can already see the attitude of "well, you better give them out free or I wont wear one" which I worry about. Same attitude of people who think they're beating the system as the restrictions cant be policed, when in reality they're just prolonging the whole thing which causes more economic damage.

JoeA3

Ivan Yeats is on fire! Newstalk right now...

Penfailed

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I dont think so. I actually think that German government are so confident this is not a deadly disease that they are allowing 22 guys get in close contact with each other for 90 minutes. On 1 corner you ll easily have 18 lads grappling with each other.

You are right, 10 players from 1734 tested did have covid19 and are now isolated. And its still going ahead. And thats wonderful. We need strong leaders like Germany have, who are not going to be flip flopping their strategy based on "models" or "estimates" or "dreaded 2nd wave might come, lets give it 3 more months stay at home to save lives and put people into poverty".

Nothing in this post has anything to do with Easypazz being disingenuous. You are making a separate point.

[Deleted User]

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Nature of the risks? is this Irish for "Lets stay at home and put young generation into poverty?"

Kermit, has any country on this planet experienced a second wave?

Yes, Japan’s northern region of Hokkaido. The reason? They lifted the restrictions too quickly.

lord quackinton

I am sure this link has been posted already but please I encourage everyone to read it very slowly and think about all the numbers involved
When the Covid 350 and the wage subsidy ends there will be mayhem
This jolly is going to cost us our children’s futures
I hope all the lockdown supporters on here can forgive themselves for the carnage that is coming

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0505/1136475-covid19-coronavirus-industry/

Breezin

Further research from Germany casting doubt on the higher claims for infection rates. If it's not opening here's the YouTube link.

[Deleted User]

lord quackinton wrote: »

I am sure this link has been posted already but please I encourage everyone to read it very slowly and think about all the numbers involved
When the Covid 350 and the wage subsidy ends there will be mayhem
This jolly is going to cost us our children’s futures
I hope all the lockdown supporters on here can forgive themselves for the carnage that is coming

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0505/1136475-covid19-coronavirus-industry/

Who is a lockdown supporter - the sooner this is under control, the sooner more people can get back to work, and the less likely they will have to close businesses again due to a second wave.

uli84

lord quackinton wrote: »

I am sure this link has been posted already but please I encourage everyone to read it very slowly and think about all the numbers involved
When the Covid 350 and the wage subsidy ends there will be mayhem
This jolly is going to cost us our children’s futures
I hope all the lockdown supporters on here can forgive themselves for the carnage that is coming

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0505/1136475-covid19-coronavirus-industry/

Workers aged under 35 account for over 43% of recipients of the payment.

well, hello, how many under 35 died to date? Not too many id say. That sums up why extending this is bad in so many ways

hmmm

lord quackinton wrote: »

I am sure this link has been posted already but please I encourage everyone to read it very slowly and think about all the numbers involved
When the Covid 350 and the wage subsidy ends there will be mayhem
This jolly is going to cost us our children’s futures
I hope all the lockdown supporters on here can forgive themselves for the carnage that is coming

Everyone realises there is an economic impact of the measures taken.

I'm hopeful the overall IFR is lower than thought, but there is no way to avoid this overloading our health system if we let it spread unchecked. What number of deaths from Covid would you consider to be an acceptable cost in return for removing some/all of the restrictions?

What Username Guidelines

uli84 wrote: »

Workers aged under 35 account for over 43% of recipients of the payment.

well, hello, how many under 35 died to date? Not too many id say. That sums up why extending this is bad in so many ways

While I see the logic here, I've wondered how this fact could be used practically? Everyone under 40 back to work and/or normal consumer spending and allow it to burn through.. Its a complex one.

stephenjmcd

JoeA3 wrote: »

Ivan Yeats is on fire! Newstalk right now...

What was he saying?

NIMAN

lord quackinton wrote: »

I am sure this link has been posted already but please I encourage everyone to read it very slowly and think about all the numbers involved
When the Covid 350 and the wage subsidy ends there will be mayhem
This jolly is going to cost us our children’s futures
I hope all the lockdown supporters on here can forgive themselves for the carnage that is coming

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0505/1136475-covid19-coronavirus-industry/

Those numbers are scary.

Eod100

lord quackinton wrote: »

I am sure this link has been posted already but please I encourage everyone to read it very slowly and think about all the numbers involved
When the Covid 350 and the wage subsidy ends there will be mayhem
This jolly is going to cost us our children’s futures
I hope all the lockdown supporters on here can forgive themselves for the carnage that is coming

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0505/1136475-covid19-coronavirus-industry/

Out of curiosity, what do you think the economy would look like if the virus wasn't mitigated against? There will likely be an inevitable global recession because most countries have taken similar measures. Think of how much worse it would be without them. Hopefully once people are back into work, cafes, pubs, restaurants start to reopen and economy picks up but yes there will likely be tough economic consequences which I think everyone is aware of.

Ginger n Lemon

Ahwell wrote: »

Yes, Japan’s northern region of Hokkaido. The reason? They lifted the restrictions too quickly.

If 1 of its islands experiences increase in cases and decides to shut down again, is this Japan experiencing a 2nd wave?

The island in question has 5m population. I am afraid its just not a great example of a country experiencing a second wave, given that Japan has 127 million people.

Total cases reported for this northern region are 874 (from first and second wave)

I dont think this is a valid example of a second wave. But I acknowledge the point.

ixoy

hmmm wrote: »

Everyone realises there is an economic impact of the measures taken.

I doubt many yet will understand the severity of that impact.

Breezin

German virologist: Covid-19 is less deadly than feared

a representative sample population within Germany was tested and examined in great detail to determine what percentage had already been infected with Covid-19.

The headline result is that 15% of that population was infected, which implies an Infection Fatality Rate of 0.36%. This would put him somewhat in the middle of the previous experts we have spoken to. Professor Streeck was keen to point out, however, that he still believes this is a conservative estimate, and thinks it may be closer to 0.24-0.26% and may come down further still as we know more. He published the higher number to err on the side of caution: “it is more important to have the most conservative estimate and see the virus as more dangerous than it is,” he said.

JoeA3

stephenjmcd wrote: »

What was he saying?

Worth a listen back... it was the intro to his show at 4pm, but I'm sure he'll be talking more about it through the show.

He was saying that he was relieved that the powers that be pushed back on NPHET and Tony H, that despite the conservative "road map", that at least there's now an air of what we can do, rather than what we can't do. He also had an amusing dig at civil servants, teachers, etc, who are probably only too happy to sit on their backsides and get paid for months on end...

What Username Guidelines

NIMAN wrote: »

Those numbers are scary.

Scarier part is that even if we speed up our roadmap and everything opens successfully - cafes/restaurants at 50% capacity need less staff and take less money, same as DIY, Garden Centres, etc. People who have less spend less, and those who have money dont have the consumer confidence. Many construction projects will probably be shelved too. Its a bastid of a situation

road_high

uli84 wrote: »

Workers aged under 35 account for over 43% of recipients of the payment.

well, hello, how many under 35 died to date? Not too many id say. That sums up why extending this is bad in so many ways

Indeed, so much wasted energy and potential all wasted for nothing.

SusieBlue

kippy wrote: »

8 weeks into this and you still don't get the reason for the restrictions.
No wonder we need to be told what to do.

Enlighten me then, please. If the purpose of lockdown wasn’t to delay the spread, to flatten the curve, to ensure our hospitals didn’t get overwhelmed and collapse like in Spain/Italy, then what was it for?
Because you must have been following a different government directive to me. We’ve been in phase 2 (the delay phase) since March 12th.
Note the use of the word ‘delay’ and the lack of promise of said delay curing or killing off the virus.

CruelSummer

A few things came to my attention yesterday that seem to be glossed over a little too quickly here..
1. A case has come to light in France dating all the way back to December 27th 2019..if this is the case - person in hospital wards, no PPE, isolation procedures, etc - it stands to reason it was all over France within weeks if it is as infectious as claimed...it also begs the question - how long has Covid 19 been around, and what is the true level of infection in populations and death rate? Was France's peak weeks ago?
France is an EU country, with many flights to Ireland...do the maths. All hospitals need to re-examine cases as far back as last October so we can all get a clear picture.
2. If Ireland's lockdown is so much more 'successful' than the U.K., why are they re-opening schools, etc. before us - on a phased basis. What exactly are NPHET playing at here, and who is their advice coming from? I think the New Zealand Prime Minister likes to praise herself a lot - but she makes a fair point re Ireland's lockdown being painfully slow to come out of.. Joe Duffy said earlier Spain are pushing FORWARD their re-opening as they've had no surge. Neither have Denmark...why is this data not being applied to Ireland?
3. The sooner we get a government the better - but if they don't act fast and start lifting this unnecessary lockdown, they'll have no money and no economy to manage. Paschal & co. better not start with the poor mouth worst recession, tax hikes, etc. talk - because I want to go back to work and earn a living and I am not willing to pay for this unnecessary catastrophe.
4. When did we as a population decide it is ok to treat children and young people the way we currently are. Children cannot leave a 2km zone for weeks, now a measly 5km. They cannot play and interact with friends - screen interactions are not a substitute for young children, teenagers and young people are being vilified for sitting in a park sunning themselves...while staying in groups 2 metres apart...has anyone thought of the consequences this lockdown is going to have on them long-term...nearly 6 months of formal education missed on top of it. Pensioners avoiding and acting strangely around children on walks, they will pick up on it and it's not right.
5. Over the course of history - where did any government implement a policy to save 80+ year olds, while putting the rest of their fit and healthy populations inside and out of work - destroying income, productivity, mental & physical well-being. Yes some people are at risk, they need to take pre-cautions. This is stating the obvious to me...
6. How can Ireland afford to donate millions to a Global Bill Gates Vaccine initiative - why were the public not consulted about this?

tobefrank321

Breezin wrote: »

German virologist: Covid-19 is less deadly than feared

The German study also pointed out that the real infection rate was likely 10 times the number of confirmed cases.

Almost all antibody studies have shown something similar, in Germany, NY, Italy and elsewhere.

An Oxford University professor has said he estimated the real rate of infection in the UK to be somewhere between 3 and 9 million.

Its very important to know what percentage of people will end up in hospital or ICU or dead before opening an economy and so far that appears to be a very small percentage of those infected.

If we targeted a billion or a couple of billion euro at the high risk areas such as nursing and care homes, expand ICU capacity even further, use other methods that had success aside from ventilators and also newer drugs, there would be no need to lock down our economy. Some social distancing would have to continue.

lord quackinton

hmmm wrote: »

Everyone realises there is an economic impact of the measures taken.

I'm hopeful the overall IFR is lower than thought, but there is no way to avoid this overloading our health system if we let it spread unchecked. What number of deaths from Covid would you consider to be an acceptable cost in return for removing some/all of the restrictions?

If we had not locked down we would have had 2500 deaths max
That is more then acceptable when you compare to the economic devastation coming
I have put my cards in the table let me turn it on you

How many people long term unemployed would you consider unacceptable before removing restrictions
500k 750k 1million

If I told you 5000 max would die this year from it but 750,000 would be left long term unemployed with thousands of children facing poverty, how would you respond?

boring accountant

hmmm wrote: »

Don't laugh now, but opening the pubs would be easier if they didn't serve alcohol, or limited customers in some way. Pissed people staggering into toilets and generally unable to be physically distant does not sound like a good place to start to relax restrictions.

It is possible to prevent people from being pissed in pubs. They do it quite successfully in Canada and the US due to the legal liability issues with serving drunk customers. There’s no reason they cant cut someone off after 4 drinks. This idea that pubs reopening = an automatic return to piss yung wans vomiting in the streets is ludicrous.

What Username Guidelines

lord quackinton wrote: »

If we had not locked down we would have had 2500 deaths max

Hows that? If they're correct that we have 10x more cases, so 200k cases, maybe more, doesnt that mean we'd have current deaths x~20, and that assumes we'd be able to treat all those that need treating.

Yakult

I say open up the world again and **** everyone. If you get it, then you get it. People need haircuts on the friday, pints on the Saturday. Wont someone please think of the adults.

Second wave? Some nonsense that science is making up. Won't happen. Build a wall or a bridge. Trump was right. It's the mexicans.

CruelSummer

JoeA3 wrote: »

Worth a listen back... it was the intro to his show at 4pm, but I'm sure he'll be talking more about it through the show.

He was saying that he was relieved that the powers that be pushed back on NPHET and Tony H, that despite the conservative "road map", that at least there's now an air of what we can do, rather than what we can't do. He also had an amusing dig at civil servants, teachers, etc, who are probably only too happy to sit on their backsides and get paid for months on end...

Everytime there's economic trouble, people in the private sector come for teachers. Pick up a form and apply for a job in Education. Easy peasy trying to organise daily activities and education remotely for classes, while minding and teaching ones own children. I'm working in Education and I'm dying to get back to work. I think this lockdown is madness and I cannot stand the way children and young people have been treated in this whole situation. It's turning out they're not even the 'super-spreaders' they were made out to be, just picking up infections off parents.
I'm sick of the dis-respect from people towards teachers, I personally find parents who post such remarks rude and obnoxious, and whose children have zero respect or life skills themselves. It doesn't do you or your child any favours and gives them a bad name...

JMNolan

Yakult wrote: »

I say open up the world again and **** everyone. If you get it, then you get it. People need haircuts on the friday, pints on the Saturday. Wont someone please think of the adults.

Second wave? Some nonsense that science is making up. Won't happen. Build a wall or a bridge. Trump was right. It's the mexicans.

Great contribution, great to see children getting online while out of school