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Relaxation of restrictions Part II

Tokyo

Continuation of the "Relaxation of restrictions" from here.

Please note that all mod warnings and threadbans carry through from the previous thread.

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Arghus

SusieBlue wrote: »

So we just stay in lockdown forever, is it? Or until 2021 when we may or may not have a vaccine?
We can’t hide in our houses indefinitely, with no cure or vaccine on the horizon life must go on or there won’t be anything to go back to.
The virus is going nowhere and we need to learn to live alongside it.

No we can't stay in lockdown forever, and the plan isn't to stay in lockdown forever.

But we can't lift restrictions while the numbers in hospital, ICU and active cases are all still higher than when restrictions were introduced in the first place.

gozunda

SusieBlue wrote: »

Common sense, perhaps? We don’t have a cure, any immunity or a vaccine.
All it takes is one asymptomatic person to restart the spread again when things reopen. Remember, we now have over 21k confirmed cases and we started with just 1 person.
There’s no reason why that won’t happen again.
What makes you think there WON’T be a spike in cases when we ease restrictions?
As per the government directive, which you can view yourself online, we are currently in the delay phase. Note the use of the word ‘delay’. It doesn’t say anything about eradicating the virus, or killing off the virus, or curing the virus. It simply says delay.

Yes the current policy is to 'delay' the spread of the disease - for two important and related reasons. To keep a lid on the total number of infections so our health services do not get overwhelmed. Throw away this tool in managing the Pandemic and we risk having a massive spike in the rate of infection. Italians had to bring in fairly draconian measures to get a hold on the outbreak after things got out of control there. Their health services were simply overwhelmed. And it was not just the elderly - hospitals there reported a huge spike of infection of people in their forties and fifties and younger.

I dont believe anyone would like to see similar happening here. The 'inevitable' as you call it can be managed. And it's a fact many countries are working on a vaccine. And yes rates of infection can be controlled and restrictions can be rolled back as the numbers become stable. It's not perfect but its a damn sight better than opening the floodgates and doing absolutely nothing.

Penfailed

SusieBlue wrote: »

Remember, we now have over 21k confirmed cases and we started with just 1 person.

For clarity, those 21,000 confirmed cases didn't all come from the spread from one person.

Benimar

Charlie19 wrote: »

With the new phase of openings, is hardware stores opening up today?

There are no new openings today. The restrictions stay in place for 12 more days, with the exception that the distance you can go to exercise increases to 5k and the over 70s can go out of their houses.

Nothing that hasn’t been open for the last 5 weeks can open till May 18th.

Fann Linn

According to data presented to Govt there is no clamour from the public for the lifting of restrictions and its just a vocal minority making that demand an ESRI report states in today's Times.

Drifter50

road_high wrote: »

Many people have greater commitments in terms of mortgage, loans, cars etc- both in secure well paid employment until now. As another poster had said the €350 can not last much longer, I just can’t see that happening.
As for mortgage breaks- how long do you think they will go on for without movement from the banks and people’s credit ratings being destroyed?
The banks have commitments on their side too. This is extremely serious, I’m actually taken aback at the amount of people who think this can go on much longer without mega shocks.

Some posters on here don`t really know the rules here. The mortgage breaks are not automatic

The Central Bank had agreed to the banks allowing payment breaks on the basis that any mortgages in arrears were not eligible for a payment break. Approx 58,000 mortgages. Hence the customer that probably needs the payment breaks most cannot avail of this

NIMAN

It will be interesting to see what will happen when we see the inevitable spike in numbers once society is opened up again.

There is no doubt once we are all allowed to get back to work, shopping etc that the numbers infected will rise. Hopefully it won't happen in big numbers but it'll likely happen.

And if this does, good luck trying to tell the people we have to go back a phase towards locking stuff down again. I get the feeling once people get used to being in a phase of relaxation, they won't be the least bit interested in returning, especially if their lives seem to be back on track and no-one they know is infected.

kippy

SusieBlue wrote: »

Did it ever occur to you that people might have had other motivations for wanting to return to work other than having a gossip with their work mates?

Lockdown is not a cure for coronavirus. Lockdown is simply suppressing the inevitable spike in cases we will see as soon as we reopen services and industries.
It isn’t working, it’s just delaying. Indefinite lockdown will not make the virus go away.

8 weeks into this and you still don't get the reason for the restrictions.
No wonder we need to be told what to do.

[Deleted User]

SusieBlue wrote: »

Simon, Leo, and Tony H said several times over that the purpose of restricting freedom and movement was to delay the spread. We have been in this phase (phase 2) since March 12th.
They never at any point have stated that lockdown will kill off the virus so it’s quite astonishing to see people still advocating to continue with these restrictions, knowing that even if we got the daily cases down to 0, they will inevitably rise again as soon as any industry is opened up.
We are suppressing the inevitable.

Plus there is an increasing amount of evidence that different types of lockdowns have not had a meaningful impact on the the trajectory of the virus through different European countries, whether Spain, Sweden or Ireland. Both epidemiologists on Newstalk this morning talking about hygiene, social distancing, testing and tracing being the mechanisms through which spread is managed - not lockdowns

Naos

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Good for them. You'll be in for a shock on the 10th so when offices will be open. Not everyone in every office can work from home indefinitely. Projects to be finished and deadlines to be kept.

Why are you arguing with Alwald?

He is stating people who can work from home will be expected to continue to do so. If you need to go into the office because you cannot access hardware or need to physically be there for whatever reason, then you are not one of these people who can continue to work from home.

ChelseaRentBoy

As sure as night follows day but disappointing none the less

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0505/1136472-coronavirus-covid19-ireland/

This isn't surprising given the lack of care displayed by many the last couple of weeks.

stephenjmcd

Naos wrote: »

Why are you arguing with Alwald?

He is stating people who can work from home will be expected to continue to do so. If you need to go into the office because you cannot access hardware or need to physically be there for whatever reason, then you are not one of these people who can continue to work from home.

His point was WFH will be mandatory, I said it wont and gave him 2 examples of large offices in Dublin giving their employees the choice after 10th August. Which is essentially what they always had and the majority were in the office.

I'm well aware of who can and cant WFH, I've been dealing with it for the last 3 months in my own office.

snowcat

SusieBlue wrote: »

Simon, Leo, and Tony H said several times over that the purpose of restricting freedom and movement was to delay the spread. We have been in this phase (phase 2) since March 12th.
They never at any point have stated that lockdown will kill off the virus so it’s quite astonishing to see people still advocating to continue with these restrictions, knowing that even if we got the daily cases down to 0, they will inevitably rise again as soon as any industry is opened up.
We are suppressing the inevitable.

This is true. NZ and other countries with very low rates are now hugely susceptable to a second wave as they have no herd tolerence at all.

https://sway.office.com/PwTN7GCvJWDgn9yd

JRant

ChelseaRentBoy wrote: »

As sure as night follows day but disappointing none the less

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0505/1136472-coronavirus-covid19-ireland/

This isn't surprising given the lack of care displayed by many the last couple of weeks.

A very slight increase in admissions but ICU numbers are still heading downwards. Very good news IMO.

132 ICU beds available with 90+ already in ICU. Me thinks Leo & Co were telling porkie pies about having upwards of 500 ICU beds available for the tsunami before the surge.

[Deleted User]

Deleted User wrote: »

I think the vintners plan for reopening is reasonable.

Can see no justification why restaurant's can open but pubs can't.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/no-live-music-no-standing-at-the-bar-publicans-lay-out-plans-for-opening-up-before-august-1.4244523?mode=amp

On paper yes makes sense and if we were in say France or Italy where this is normal practice then yes. In Ireland do you see people complying with this sitting at their tables all civilized ? Will happen for couple of nights then people will assume all is ok then back to normal. Groups of lads out on the lash will sit patiently for the next set of shots ? I doubt it. We have a different mentality around drink and the pubs would turn into a breeding ground for the virus

Nermal

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/sweden-tames-its-r-number-without-lockdown

"(Imperial) modelling envisaged Sweden paying a heavy price for its rejection of lockdown, with 40,000 Covid deaths by 1 May and almost 100,000 by June.

The latest figure for Sweden is 2,680 deaths, with daily deaths peaking a fortnight ago."

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20078717v1

"Full lockdown policies in Western Europe countries have no evident impacts on the COVID-19 epidemic."

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/bethbaumann/2020/05/02/theyre-unconstitutional-sheriffs-are-refusing-to-enforce-stayathome-orders-n2568073

“My conscience will not allow me to arrest someone who is trying to make a living,” he said. “I don’t believe it is a crime to try and make a living.”

[Deleted User]

JoeA3 wrote: »

Same here. We've decided amongst ourselves that enough's enough, we've done our bit and with this weather, we saw no reason not to do likewise.

You haven’t done your bit obviously you have gone against medical advice and just because your a bit bored at home and won’t do what 99percent of the country are doing. Ah bit of sun no reason not to mix with different groups all is fine

NIMAN

ChelseaRentBoy wrote: »

As sure as night follows day but disappointing none the less

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0505/1136472-coronavirus-covid19-ireland/

This isn't surprising given the lack of care displayed by many the last couple of weeks.

Did I not read we have <100 in ICU?

We are doing well.

EDit

ChelseaRentBoy wrote: »

As sure as night follows day but disappointing none the less

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0505/1136472-coronavirus-covid19-ireland/

This isn't surprising given the lack of care displayed by many the last couple of weeks.

Random variation... to be expected TBH

Naos

Benimar wrote: »

There are no new openings today. The restrictions stay in place for 12 more days, with the exception that the distance you can go to exercise increases to 5k and the over 70s can go out of their houses.

The over 70's were never not allowed to leave their house.

ZX7R

ChelseaRentBoy wrote: »

As sure as night follows day but disappointing none the less

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0505/1136472-coronavirus-covid19-ireland/

This isn't surprising given the lack of care displayed by many the last couple of weeks.

You're only making an assumption that the rise of people in hospitals are from the general public,they could have come from nursing homes or any state residential care or even from a know cluster.
There is little point of releasing this information if they they don't provide the information as to where the hospitalised patience came from.

uli84

After 7 years of wfh myself good luck to anyone who wants to do it permanently and thinks it is a positive..

uli84

NIMAN wrote: »

It will be interesting to see what will happen when we see the inevitable spike in numbers once society is opened up again.

There is no doubt once we are all allowed to get back to work, shopping etc that the numbers infected will rise. Hopefully it won't happen in big numbers but it'll likely happen.

And if this does, good luck trying to tell the people we have to go back a phase towards locking stuff down again. I get the feeling once people get used to being in a phase of relaxation, they won't be the least bit interested in returning, especially if their lives seem to be back on track and no-one they know is infected.

Well
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/30/danes-and-czechs-say-easing-lockdowns-has-produced-no-covid-19-surge

Naos

stephenjmcd wrote: »

His point was WFH will be mandatory, I said it wont and gave him 2 examples of large offices in Dublin giving their employees the choice after 10th August. Which is essentially what they always had and the majority were in the office.

I'm well aware of who can and cant WFH, I've been dealing with it for the last 3 months in my own office.

Fair enough - his second response had a link stating 'if possible to do so', but I can see your point, he did say it was mandatory in the first instance.

Naos

uli84 wrote: »

After 7 years of wfh myself good luck to anyone who wants to do it permanently and thinks it is a positive..

What in your opinion are the negatives?

It really appears to depend on the person. Some people are really disliking it at the moment, some people are loving it and will want to change the way they work in the future. I do think people are not getting to experience it properly due to schools being closed etc which will negatively impact their experience of it.

I would like to think companies where WFH has been proven to be both successful & productive during this time will continue to allow it, bar an issue around trust I really fail to see why they would not give the option.

[Deleted User]

SusieBlue wrote: »

It isn’t working, it’s just delaying. Indefinite lockdown will not make the virus go away.

I guess it depends on what you mean by "working". The purpose was never to make the virus go away. So judging whether it is working on that standard would not be useful. The purpose is delay - and you said yourself above it is achieving that. So it is "working" in that sense.

To really judge whether it is "working" or not we need to look at the costs of maintaining that delay - what advantages we are garnering from that delay - and seeing if X>Y or Y>X in that equation. As soon as the costs do not justify the wins - a lockdown should of course be rolled back or abandoned.

uli84 wrote: »

After 7 years of wfh myself good luck to anyone who wants to do it permanently and thinks it is a positive..

For many it is - but like anything it is not for everyone. I have heard many positives about it from many sources over the years - even before this pandemic. The most oft cited to me anecdotally being getting out of the commute rat race - and the increase in both well being and free time that brings to many.

It sounds like some negatives have arisen for you over time? That can happen but it is not going to be a universal either. Whatever those negatives tend to be - many can be mediated well.

stephenjmcd

uli84 wrote: »

Well
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/30/danes-and-czechs-say-easing-lockdowns-has-produced-no-covid-19-surge

Likewise Germany reporting this morning R still at 0.71 no major change

robbiezero

ZX7R wrote: »

You're only making an assumption that the rise of people in hospitals are from the general public,they could have come from nursing homes or any state residential care or even from a know cluster.
There is little point of releasing this information if they they don't provide the information as to where the hospitalised patience came from.

If there is a pessimistic, gloomy interpretation to be taken, some people will always take it.

[Deleted User]

The Irish government and CMO are inflicting far more long drawn out restrictions than nearly any other country in the world! Why are garden centres not already open? Why is golf not starting for another 2 weeks, one of the most socially distanced sports on the planet? (I'm not a golfer), Why is there no mention of dentists anywhere?? This is a medical service, it is essential to the health of so many people. Why are we restricted to no further than 20km until 20th July? That's 2 months away - this is insanity! What exactly are we basing our never ending lockdown on? No other country is doing this!
How dare 2 "experts" talk to Pat Kenny this morning on Newstalk and say most people are very happy to continue with these restrictions (!) and some are even reluctant to return to work (has €350 a week anything to do with that?).

Jacinta Ardern NZ Prime Minister last night specifically mentioned Ireland (in disbelief) saying some countries like Ireland were going for VERY long restrictions and NZ's plan was getting their economy back up and running much sooner.
https://extra.ie/2020/05/04/news/world-news/new-zealand-prime-minister-jacinda-ardern-calls-out-irelands-five-phase-covid-19-strategy

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/newzealand-ireland-coronavirus-lockdown-lifting-21972612

_Kaiser_

NIMAN wrote: »

Did I not read we have <100 in ICU?

We are doing well.

We are. Despite articles like this which are written to suggest things are much worse - numbers are up slightly... from what?

It's like the IT reporting this morning that there was an increase in traffic over the weekend citing percentage increases of more than a third in some cases - "more than a third" of what?

I would pay very little heed to scaremongering articles like that or them being used as sticks to try and beat others with. What matters are the actual figures and those have been trending downwards for weeks now.

But, the Government have signed us up to a drawn-out programme of restriction easing, so of course they have to make it sound justified through the media.

Speaking of Government.. I'm far more interested in the negotiations going on between FF, FG, and the Greens at the moment than any meaningless RTE report like the above, as the outcome will be key to how we end up paying for the mess that'll be left in the wake of this.