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Relaxation of restrictions Part II

Tokyo

Continuation of the "Relaxation of restrictions" from here.

Please note that all mod warnings and threadbans carry through from the previous thread.

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Stormyteacup

Deleted User wrote: »

Presume the consultant was McConkey. Heard him talk about this idea - take an additional 4-6 weeks of even tougher lockdown, but come out the other side to a widescale re-opening internally as we would be at the elimination phase. Would have to align with NI and have much more stringent Quarantine on entry in place once the lockdown is complete. Has merits, but I don't think its workable

Yes, likely McConkey.

Cillian De Gascun said in IT "It's not because of testing that we can't lift the restrictions". He wants to ensure an R0 value less than 1 for "a long period of time"

The goalposts have definitely moved - question is why? Do they see now see elimination as a possibility.

Nermal

Deleted User wrote: »

Laudable achievements do not make him right

It takes iconoclasts to challenge institutional consensus and inertia.

It won't come from within the institutions themselves.

KrustyUCC

Changes will be made every two to four weeks but the Government will intervene if things are going off track and some elements would be reintroduced.

Mr Varadkar said he hopes to put the plan before Cabinet tomorrow to be signed off on.

He said there were five key priorities to be considered in lifting the restrictions:

Progress of the disease
Healthcare capacity and resilience
Testing and contact tracing capacity
Ability to shield and care for at-risk groups
Risk of secondary morbidity due to the restrictions themselves

seamus

SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »

two to four weeks more Leo says

That's not what he said. He said in the easing of restrictions, measures will be reviewed and changed if necessary every two to four weeks.

SEPT 23 1989

two to four weeks more Leo says

Gael23

When does the legislation allowing these measures expire?

easypazz

I see Leo has confirmed to the Dail today that we are in lockdown.

Yet there are still people on here trying to pretend its not a lockdown.

"People want to know when things are going to go back to the new normal, and I can assure them that a plan is being developed to ease the lockdown, a roadmap to reopen Ireland, a roadmap to what will be a new normal,"

nj27

I'm not holding out much hope for the announcement tomorrow as that seems to lead to inevitable disappointment, but at the back of the mind I am wondering if they've been saying that the numbers aren't at the level required for relaxing the restrictions in order bolster compliance after reports of a slip in standards. Probably just wishful thinking.

lawrencesummers

GazzaL wrote: »

LOL @ the people trying to denigrate Elon Musk. He's probably achieved more this morning than most people have in a month.

Doubtful.

He lives in bel air, it’s 5am there he’s either asleep or just getting up and I’ve already eaten a large toblerone for breakfast, watched two episodes of the wire, drank 3 cups of tea and an espresso, took some chicken out of the freezer for dinner and had a nap. And I haven’t called anyone a paedophile

He won’t catch Me till at least tea time.

easypazz

GazzaL wrote: »

If there's no dates, it's not a plan.

Ah now that's harsh, it is a plan.

Its called the "kick the can down the road for another few weeks and see what happens next" plan.

[Deleted User]

GazzaL wrote: »

LOL @ the people trying to denigrate Elon Musk. He's probably achieved more this morning than most people have in a month.

Laudable achievements do not make him right

GazzaL

seamus wrote: »

There won't be dates at all, as the plan will be goal-driven, not date-driven.

It'll be more like, "When number X has been at or below value Y for two consecutive weeks, then we will move to phase 2. Phase 2 will last for at least four weeks. At the end of these four weeks if <...> criteria are met, we will move to phase 3. If not, we remain in phase 2 for two more weeks. If the figures regress, we will step back to phase 1".

And so on.

The people agonising here over tiny statements is a bit bizarre. Journalists are attempting to draw the CMO on exact figures so that they have a story to write. So that they have a stick to beat him with later on.

This is like asking an army general when he thinks his troops should withdraw, knowing full well that the final decision does not rest with him.

It would be very irresponsible for him to give specifics to the press, before the government have presented a plan. He is not the one making the decisions, he is providing advice. If he says one thing, and the government presents something slightly different, then the media will hammer a wedge into that gap and undermine public confidence in the lockdown.

There is a concerted effort within our media, to undermine the state's effort and controlling this outbreak. I have no idea where it's coming from, but it's there. DOB's media are bad for it, but there are worse ones.

If there's no dates, it's not a plan.

easypazz

Penfailed wrote: »

Have a read back. I posted it earlier. Someone else did too.

Cop out. Never saw anything about it and I have been following this thread quite closely.

drunkmonkey

GazzaL wrote: »

LOL @ the people trying to denigrate Elon Musk. He's probably achieved more this morning than most people have in a month.

He's probably got high in fairness.

GazzaL

road_high wrote: »

What happens after that? When the mortgage holders have no job to return to? And they can’t meet the repayments?

Mortgage breaks are nonsense, much like business rate defferals. The money still has to be paid. If your income is destroyed, you haven't a hope of being able to meet the new payments in a few months down the road.

GazzaL

Deleted User wrote: »

What about the regular workload in ICU?

We're operating at around 50% of our original ICU capacity. That seems reasonable to me.

MOH

seamus wrote: »

There won't be dates at all, as the plan will be goal-driven, not date-driven.

It'll be more like, "When number X has been at or below value Y for two consecutive weeks, then we will move to phase 2. Phase 2 will last for at least four weeks. At the end of these four weeks if <...> criteria are met, we will move to phase 3. If not, we remain in phase 2 for two more weeks. If the figures regress, we will step back to phase 1".

You mean the same way they said 4 weeks ago they wanted to get the R0 number below 1? And now that it's around the 0.6 mark that's not low enough?

There is a concerted effort within our media, to undermine the state's effort and controlling this outbreak. I have no idea where it's coming from, but it's there. DOB's media are bad for it, but there are worse ones.

You must be joking! One thing that had concerned me a bit is that I hadn't been a single article with even the vaguest critical analysis of any government statements or figures for the last 6 weeks or so. It very much smacked of an agreement not to run negative stories and support the government while trying to deal with the situation. Which is understandable, on one level.
That's finally broken this ween and there's been a couple of articles pointing out that the government have come out with a raft of excuses over the last week for extending lockdown, covering up their complete failure to procure the necessary testing levels.

Calling that a concerted effort to undermine the state is bizarre.

I still haven't seen one article pointing out that the figures published every day are totally worthless. the number of "new" cases is totally meaningless without a breakdown of what dates the tests were taken. Which is still over a week's lag on average, after being 2-3 weeks before.
The "new" figures being published last time the lockdown was extended largely related to people who had contracted Covid-19 before the lockdown had evenstarted, but I didn't see any undermining media articles pointing that out.

The increase in "new" figures a week ago is largely due to clearing the backlog of 2 and 3 week old tests. The fact the figures haven't spiked massively as a result is actually an indication of a significant decrease. Again, no undermining media analysis or even basic discussion of this.

There's been a combination of goalpost moving along with a massive, tragic failure to protect the people most at risk. The government should rightly be facing questions over this. That's part of the job of a responsible media. They were given leeway at the start, but over the last two weeks I've totally lost confidence in their entire handling of the crisis. It's perfectly reasonable that questions should start being asked at this point.

GazzaL

LOL @ the people trying to denigrate Elon Musk. He's probably achieved more this morning than most people have in a month.

Penfailed

easypazz wrote: »

Still waiting for your evidence to support your claim that the virus struck Spain before it struck Ireland.

Have a read back. I posted it earlier. Someone else did too.

easypazz

Penfailed wrote: »

No. We aren't in prison.

Still waiting for your evidence to support your claim that the virus struck Spain before it struck Ireland.

[Deleted User]

drunkmonkey wrote: »

They've all got the vaccine, just want to buy up your house cheap.
Like seriously, where's the distancing...Cillian in the back row is a virologist, why isn't he concerned enough to wear a mask.

Impossible to judge distance in that photo, but Cillian and the 2 in the background are likely well outside two meters. While Varadkar and Harris may well be inside 2 meters, it looks like they are leaning in to catch a look at something before returning to original position which would be fine per social distancing.

Multipass

uli84 wrote: »

Mortgage break or whatever getting extended to 6 months...assuming then the restrictions are not getting eased and that the same will happen to covid-19 350€ a week payment haha

good luck everyone and remember we’re all in this together

Well that rankles- unlucky to have been made unemployed just before all of this, my household is 2 adults living on 240 total.. Doesn’t feel a damn like we’re all in this together. I can already predict in the coming recession being told how we all partied on 350 each.

lawrencesummers

Nermal wrote: »

Nope. Don't try to rewrite history.

We had the data.

But our media sensationalised it with exaggerated fatality rates based on confirmed cases. Our populace was driven to panic. Our leaders responded with unnecessary, ineffective and ruinously expensive lockdowns.

https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1254796958964858882

But what's worse than making a mistake, is refusing to admit it.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/do-lockdowns-save-many-lives-is-most-places-the-data-say-no-11587930911

That’s for backing up my point by linking information from the 26th and 27th of APRIL.

seamus

Penfailed wrote: »

No. We aren't in prison.

Lots of people here with a very rose-tinted idea of what prison is

I hope they don't ever get a custodial sentence, the shock might kill them.

Penfailed

growleaves wrote: »

Yeah we're all cellmates together in one giant prison.

No. We aren't in prison.

[Deleted User]

Stormyteacup wrote: »

From the minutes of NPHET meeting 14th April published on gov.ie - two things stand out

1: DOH presents draft for easing of restrictions on 10th April

"Review of Current Public Health Measures - Phasing A draft paper outlining considerations for any future phased reduction of the social distancing measures currently in place was previously presented to the NPHET at the meeting on 10th April 2020 and DOH is continuing to work on this paper; which is being developed in line with the advice of the EU Commission, ECDC, WHO and approaches of other countries. A further version of the paper is to be considered by the NPHET at the next meeting on 17th April 2020."

2: Bit concerning this, may explain the CMO's 'as low as possible' for target numbers in ICU - have NPHET decided to change tack from suppression to eradication?

"(b) AOB (i) The Chair brought correspondence from a Consultant of Infectious Diseases to the attention of the NPHET for its consideration in terms of an eradication approach and indicated that input from the NPHET would be welcomed in replying. (Permission to share to NPHET was granted by the author). It was noted that the component parts of the approach outlined are aligned with priorities already identified by NPHET."

Presume the consultant was McConkey. Heard him talk about this idea - take an additional 4-6 weeks of even tougher lockdown, but come out the other side to a widescale re-opening internally as we would be at the elimination phase. Would have to align with NI and have much more stringent Quarantine on entry in place once the lockdown is complete. Has merits, but I don't think its workable

brick tamland

lawrencesummers wrote: »

Yea, because Elon is sound. Dead sound

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jul/15/elon-musk-british-diver-thai-cave-rescue-pedo-twitter?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

He's also just looking after himself. He loses more money the longer this goes on and people don't buy his cars.

He may ultimately be proved right, nobody knows, but he's just coming at it from self interest at the moment.

* He's still a massive dickhead though

easypazz

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Link?

Its widely reported today in the media.

KrustyUCC wrote: »

The €350 payment for another 3 months will cost a fortune

The hope is they get some people back to work with this phased reopening to take the pressure off.

Problem is @ €350 a week and no travel expenses etc. a lot of people won't be in any rush back to work.

drunkmonkey

RugbyLad11 wrote: »

One thing I don't understand.

We have Tony who want's to keep us locked inside for months and months because the virus is so destructive but yet he still doesn't recommend we cover our mouth/nose to help reduce the spread.

They've all got the vaccine, just want to buy up your house cheap.
Like seriously, where's the distancing...Cillian in the back row is a virologist, why isn't he concerned enough to wear a mask.

lawrencesummers

RugbyLad11 wrote: »

It's nice to see people like Elon Musk on board and speaking out on how ridiculous it is.

When it's just a nutcase like Gemma ODotery it's much easier for the government and media to dismiss it

Yea, because Elon is sound. Dead sound

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jul/15/elon-musk-british-diver-thai-cave-rescue-pedo-twitter?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other