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Relaxation of restrictions Part II

Tokyo

Continuation of the "Relaxation of restrictions" from here.

Please note that all mod warnings and threadbans carry through from the previous thread.

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sideswipe

is_that_so wrote: »

Suggestion that the plan may not have dates but will have a map of how each of the phases will work.

I'd be very surprised if there are dates. There'll be 'middle of summer', 'start of autumn' ambiguous vibe similar to the '5 cases in the east, 2 cases in the west' type of detail.

growleaves

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

You learn the importance of citation very early in any science degree.

If that alleged doctor couldn't get that simple fact into his head, I'd be fairly skeptical of his take on anything else.

Its not a journal article, its akin to a magazine piece or a blog post.

'Alleged' doctor - his details are available on the internet in physician directories. Do you think there's been an instance of identity theft?

KrustyUCC

sideswipe wrote: »

I'd be very surprised if there are dates. There'll be 'middle of summer', 'start of autumn' ambiguous vibe similar to the '5 cases in the east, 2 cases in the west' type of detail.

If its that vague then they have no plan and more and more people will ignore what they say

I think you will be right though

Indo had something similar earlier in the week that restrictions would be lifted 'at an appropriate time'

growleaves

Deleted User wrote: »

It gives me the ability to apply critical thinking to what i read and assess based on content and source what holds water and what is horse****.

Er okay so apply critical thinking.

Say what points you disagreed with if you want to discuss.

I literally have no way of knowing which points you found objectionable or why. You went off on a rant about Tulane Medical School and mentioned the CDC.

Nermal

ek motor wrote: »

Would have very serious doubts as to whether the author 'David Williams' is an actual 'MD', I suspect not.

The last refuge of lockdowners is always credentialism.

ek motor

Nermal wrote: »

The last refuge of lockdowners is always credentialism.

Absolute nonsense

lawrencesummers

Deleted User wrote: »

Well there is a David Williams MA practising in Dale Alabama, graduated in Medicine from Tulane Medical School Louisiana, which is ranked 200-250 out of US medical schools. Obviously knows more than CDC, Fauci et al.

It’s fine when he gives his Medical interpretation of facts, but the reliance on the US media Reporting which is completely politically driven by one side or the other of the political divide and his interjection of personal opinions makes it difficult to digest.

He also makes out that the piece has multiple contributors but no back up of that.

If he just stuck to the facts then it would be easier to put more credence in, and some of the points he makes are good but washed out with conspiracy about the Chinese and the NBA and the Washington post and amazon.

growleaves

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Like an emergency doctor/whatever he claims he is writing a blog on epidemiology?

He has experience of treating patients.

Boards users who know a lot about statistics but nothing about medicine think they are qualified to interpret and explicate medical statistics. We've seen that over and over.

[Deleted User]

growleaves wrote: »

Er okay so apply critical thinking.

Say what points you disagreed with if you want to discuss.

I literally have no way of knowing which points you found objectionable or why. You went off on a rant about Tulane Medical School and mentioned the CDC.

Its a political diatribe with no scientific thinking displayed throughout. Apart from that its bang on.

Tell me what you believe is the motivation for governments, corporations and experts all over the world to hype this pandemic?

ixoy

Deleted User wrote: »

Tell me what you believe is the motivation for governments, corporations and experts all over the world to hype this pandemic?

They're getting orders from Bill Gates.

growleaves

Deleted User wrote: »

Tell me what you believe is the motivation for governments, corporations and experts all over the world to hype this pandemic?

I'm not going to take guesses about the motivations of strangers. They may have any mixture of good/bad motivation and good/bad judgement, varying from person to person. They may be excessively cautious or feel under pressure from media or the public and wish to avoid blame.

As I've said before, every person has an interest in questioning everything about this lockdown from top to bottom all the live long day unless they personally enjoy being confined to their house and dis-employed.

I would like to see compelling proof, in either direction, and I'm not going to shut up about it.

lawrencesummers

What he is essentially saying is a big contradiction of itself,
Firstly we don’t know everything about this disease, and secondly we know enough that we should never have locked down.

I’m not looking forward to the “I told you so” brigade that will assemble en masse once this is over and the facts and figures are accurately published.

Maybe the lockdown is a bit much, maybe we could have gone about business as usual, but precautions are precautions and as it stands the correct decisions have been made so far. In time they might not have been the correct ones, but that’s only when more info come out.

[Deleted User]

growleaves wrote: »

He has experience of treating patients.

Boards users who know a lot about statistics but nothing about medicine think they are qualified to interpret and explicate medical statistics. We've seen that over and over.

Epidemiological modelling is far more of a statistical endeavour than medical and you don't need to be a qualified medical doctor to be an epidemiologist and they often come from the MSc / PhD route rather than MD. Top experts may tend to have both, but would unlikely still be practising physicians

yosemitesam1

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Like an emergency doctor/whatever he claims he is writing a blog on epidemiology?

Studied epidemiology from a plant disease/pest perspective.
I think the public health experts approach to understanding this virus and how it's behaving with regards to growth rates, spread etc has left an awful lot to be desired. They are treating this as if they can chase down a large amount of the total spread and thus create meaningful results.
There is far too much faith in these numbers that test results are generating. Nobody really knows what they mean or represent apart from maybe in enclosed areas like nursing homes.
But at a population level, they've been pretty meaningless from the start and will continue to be meaningless unless the structure of how samples are taken is drastically changed.

[Deleted User]

ixoy wrote: »

They're getting orders from Bill Gates.

Of course, it all makes sense now

tobefrank321

The summer season is vital for the hospitality industry, far more so than winter.

If we can isolate enough of the vulnerable groups and we know a lot more now than we did 6 weeks ago who these groups are, then it would be far better to deal with a second wave of infections over the summer and autumn than next winter.

We should continue to isolate over 80s. We should identify patients who are in high risk categories and these people should be asked to remain at home. Everyone else should be obliged to wear masks as much as possible particularly on public transport.

The idea that Holohan and others are entertaining that we can somehow get infections down to a manageable or low level is completely laughable. We are not NZ or Taiwan. It is far too endemic here to even dream of getting infections to a low level. We just have to accept that fact and live around it.

Had they enforced stricter measures at the start we'd be in a far better place. But with an open economy and open borders, the idea that you can get infections low is just not a runner.

JoeExotic81

So Our Great Unelected Leader Dr Tony (OGULDT) is struggling to find measures or number targets we haven't already met and is now hanging on to an invisible magic ICU number to keep the country in shutdown? Did journalists really accept his "as low as possible" target?

These clowns need to start sharing specifics pronto. It's starting to get farcical fast. Tomorrow will be fascinating, the whole country is waiting for this announcement.

If it's as unclear and unspecific as their recent sound bites, I'd say public confidence in them will fall off a cliff if it hasn't done so already.

growleaves

Deleted User wrote: »

Epidemiological modelling is far more of a statistical endeavour than medical

Any statisical endeavour has to be done by somebody who understands the subject.

drunkmonkey

Just chatting to one of the lads about the **** show in the local meat factory he hadn't heard about it, told me X works there roll on a few minutes and who rocks on only X, I said I'm out of here but asked him what was the story with the factory when I was far enough away, said there is 84 confirmed and 200 staff out with it suspected out of a workforce of about 320, he only got the test Friday and is awaiting results, this was all outside the shop he'd just been in.
This hasn't a hope of stopping until your forced to isolate. We can't trust people to do it. It needs to be forced.

GazzaL

JoeExotic81 wrote: »

So Our Great Unelected Leader Dr Tony (OGULDT) is struggling to find measures or number targets we haven't already met and is now hanging on to an invisible magic ICU number to keep the country in shutdown? Did journalists really accept his "as low as possible" target?

These clowns need to start sharing specifics pronto. It's starting to get farcical fast. Tomorrow will be fascinating, the whole country is waiting for this announcement.

If it's as unclear and unspecific as their recent sound bites, I'd say public confidence in them will fall off a cliff if it hasn't done so already.

He was asked for a number and avoided giving it. We're way below ICU capacity at the moment.

Nermal

lawrencesummers wrote: »

I’m not looking forward to the “I told you so” brigade that will assemble en masse once this is over and the facts and figures are accurately published.

Maybe the lockdown is a bit much, maybe we could have gone about business as usual, but precautions are precautions and as it stands the correct decisions have been made so far. In time they might not have been the correct ones, but that’s only when more info come out.

Nope. Don't try to rewrite history.

We had the data.

But our media sensationalised it with exaggerated fatality rates based on confirmed cases. Our populace was driven to panic. Our leaders responded with unnecessary, ineffective and ruinously expensive lockdowns.

https://twitter.com/MarkChangizi/status/1254796958964858882

But what's worse than making a mistake, is refusing to admit it.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/do-lockdowns-save-many-lives-is-most-places-the-data-say-no-11587930911

Princess Consuela Bananahammock

iamwhoiam wrote: »

Tony Holohan said our numbers are not low enough .He was asked specifically how low must they be for a lifting of restrictions .His answer was " As low as possible "
That was the very moment I lost faith in him .He will manipulate numbers now to deflect and distract and use them in any way it suits the agenda

"As low as possible" would be zero which means you're not getting out before
Christmas!

Hope you organised the turkey...

[Deleted User]

growleaves wrote: »

Any statisical endeavour has to be done by somebody who understands the subject.

and a random emergency room doctor is statistically unlikely to have received any decent background training in epidemiology. A medical degree is an intense undertaking, and having the scope to complete the level of work required to come to level of understanding in epidemiology beyond the undergraduate level while qualifying as a medical doctor is just not possible. Maybe the author of your piece completed some post graduate study in the subject, but it does not show in his writing which is almost entirely political in nature

seamus

sideswipe wrote: »

I'd be very surprised if there are dates. There'll be 'middle of summer', 'start of autumn' ambiguous vibe similar to the '5 cases in the east, 2 cases in the west' type of detail.

There won't be dates at all, as the plan will be goal-driven, not date-driven.

It'll be more like, "When number X has been at or below value Y for two consecutive weeks, then we will move to phase 2. Phase 2 will last for at least four weeks. At the end of these four weeks if <...> criteria are met, we will move to phase 3. If not, we remain in phase 2 for two more weeks. If the figures regress, we will step back to phase 1".

And so on.

The people agonising here over tiny statements is a bit bizarre. Journalists are attempting to draw the CMO on exact figures so that they have a story to write. So that they have a stick to beat him with later on.

This is like asking an army general when he thinks his troops should withdraw, knowing full well that the final decision does not rest with him.

It would be very irresponsible for him to give specifics to the press, before the government have presented a plan. He is not the one making the decisions, he is providing advice. If he says one thing, and the government presents something slightly different, then the media will hammer a wedge into that gap and undermine public confidence in the lockdown.

There is a concerted effort within our media, to undermine the state's effort and controlling this outbreak. I have no idea where it's coming from, but it's there. DOB's media are bad for it, but there are worse ones.

Penfailed

GazzaL wrote: »

He was asked for a number and avoided giving it. We're way below ICU capacity at the moment.

Would you rather we were running at or just below capacity? If that's what you are saying, it leaves no room for things to get worse.

RugbyLad11

It's nice to see people like Elon Musk on board and speaking out on how ridiculous it is.

When it's just a nutcase like Gemma ODotery it's much easier for the government and media to dismiss it

KrustyUCC

GazzaL wrote: »

He was asked for a number and avoided giving it. We're way below ICU capacity at the moment.

stephenjmcd wrote: »

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1255763072964313088?s=19

So 103 cases

Our capacity was at 312 beds on 8th April

So we're a third full or two thirds empty

That's also based on 312 figure which I'm sure has been added to by this stage

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/coronavirus-patients-could-be-moved-out-of-dublin-if-hospital-capacity-exceeded-993035.html

GazzaL

Penfailed wrote: »

Would you rather we were running at or just below capacity? If that's what you are saying, it leaves no room for things to get worse.

No I'm happy that we are currently way below capacity, so that there is room to deal with more patients.

SAMTALK

pjohnson wrote: »

Thanks but managed = altered/made up/false/the truth is out there/fake news. Its all conspiratorial rubbish.

This isnt really the thread for constructive thoughts as any thought/plan is met by shrieks of "the people" wont take it.

ixoy wrote: »

Do people actually think that? I see very little of that here. Most are calling for a gradual phased re-opening and are happy to see added security measures that weren't there before. Very very few asking, or expecting, for an immediate rollback. I imagine the general public is of the same opinion.

I think you missed my point.

It takes time to set things in place for reopening of business. Things have to change and it wont happen over night . People and hospital beds took priority at the start of this and now we need to concentrate on how to get people back to work in a safe environment.

coastwatch

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Just chatting to one of the lads about the **** show in the local meat factory he hadn't heard about it, told me X works there roll on a few minutes and who rocks on only X, I said I'm out of here but asked him what was the story with the factory when I was far enough away, said there is 84 confirmed and 200 staff out with it suspected out of a workforce of about 320, he only got the test Friday and is awaiting results, this was all outside the shop he'd just been in.
This hasn't a hope of stopping until your forced to isolate. We can't trust people to do it. It needs to be forced.

Border County?