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Relaxation of restrictions Part II

Tokyo

Continuation of the "Relaxation of restrictions" from here.

Please note that all mod warnings and threadbans carry through from the previous thread.

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facehugger99

average_runner wrote: »

Doesn't matter where, the fact we need to be able to manage the ICU numbers. By managing the ICU numbers we can decrease the pressure on the hospitals and start getting other treatments going again

It does matter where.

The restrictions are not having any effect on nursing home infections and ICU admissions.

Extending restrictions will make no difference to these numbers.

The only thing it will achieve is exacerbating the devastating economic effects of the lockdown.

The whole thing is shameful.

Hearty80

Any updates on when announcement is being made? Doesn't look like anyone is going back to work. Oh works in construction and has heard nothing from anyone. Things would need to.be in place tomorrow to begin work on Tuesday.

GazzaL

Discodog wrote: »

We should know by now where all the new cases are originating from. According to a German study supermarket workers aren't getting infected in any numbers. My anecdotal experience via friends who work in supermarkets backs this up yet they should be most likely to get it.

Unfortunately the critical job of contact tracing & testing is in the hands of a hopeless organisation. Might be better to put the Army in overall control.

There are SMEs including retailers that can put in place better social distancing than supermarkets, yet they aren't being allowed to open.

Huge permanent job losses to follow.

Thanks Leo. Thanks Tony.

average_runner

Pitch n Putt wrote: »

Some had restrictions on visitors in place in early March and the good doctors recommendation was that those self imposed restrictions should be removed.

Not to mention the smart move of sending confirmed cases to the nursing homes.

There is no covering up the bad recommendations and decisions that were taken.

Sending the cases back was crazy.

pjohnson

JRant wrote: »

Absolutely not, managed does not mean made up or fake news or false. Take, for instance, the fact they have stopped giving the median age of those that have died. Why suddenly stop? Well, if you want to manage the numbers it takes the focus off the fact that the majority of deaths are very old people. It's doesn't mean anyone is peddling fake news or lies but more so changing the narrative.

Doesn't seem like it's the thread for you, yet here you are.

It is. Its good to have something to cheer you up.

Diarmuid

gozunda wrote: »

So yes this disease is affecting both young and old.

That's only true in a literal sense. If 100,000 people over 70 had the disease and 1 person under 70 had it, then you can say "this disease is affecting both young and old"
However on a practical level, it's only affecting over 70s and really the over 80s.

To put it in context, if you are in your 40s and you contract the virus, your risk of dying is 0.4% That's pretty much the exact same risk of dying from any cause in the next year for that age!! So on Jan 1 if you woke up as a 48 year old, your risk of dying in the next year is 0.4%, regardless of Covid-19

gozunda wrote: »

Without restrictions those figures would be a lot higher.

It's really not that difficult to understand tbh ...

It's actually is, otherwise there wouldn't be whole countries with different and successful approaches to containing it.

Pitch n Putt

average_runner wrote: »

Nursing homes need to take accountability also. They are still allowing people in to visit their love ones that have Corona. Shocking behaviour

Some had restrictions on visitors in place in early March and the good doctors recommendation was that those self imposed restrictions should be removed.

Not to mention the smart move of sending confirmed cases to the nursing homes.

There is no covering up the bad recommendations and decisions that were taken.

[Deleted User]

JRant wrote: »

It's not my assertion, so no.

Well in the absence of a quote, or a link or some data, all I can assume is you pulled it out of your arse

average_runner

Pitch n Putt wrote: »

Dr Tony has to try and jumble up the numbers between “the bold community”and the actual hotspots of the nursing homes to cover up the HSE tracks from the major mismanagement of the nursing homes in the first place.

We’re all going to have to feel the pain for at least two more weeks because of this.

Sad but true. As ever there is no accountability for anything in this country.

Nursing homes need to take accountability also. They are still allowing people in to visit their love ones that have Corona. Shocking behaviour

Pitch n Putt

facehugger99 wrote: »

You should really think more, ICU numbers are high because it's rampant in nursing homes - absolutely nothing to do with restrictions.

Dr Tony has to try and jumble up the numbers between “the bold community”and the actual hotspots of the nursing homes to cover up the HSE tracks from the major mismanagement of the nursing homes in the first place.

We’re all going to have to feel the pain for at least two more weeks because of this.

Sad but true. As ever there is no accountability for anything in this country.

average_runner

drunkmonkey wrote: »

I used to be able to follow them but not yesterday, way too much information too quickly. There's no way the Journalists could keep up.

Journalists were asking stupid questions. One was focusing on the American football match in sept. The last question from a journalist was very good, all about the breakdown of the numbers.

average_runner

facehugger99 wrote: »

You should really think more, ICU numbers are high because it's rampant in nursing homes - absolutely nothing to do with restrictions.

Doesn't matter where, the fact we need to be able to manage the ICU numbers. By managing the ICU numbers we can decrease the pressure on the hospitals and start getting other treatments going again

drunkmonkey

NegativeCreep wrote: »

I’ve noticed that he speeds through the numbers. Very hard to keep up

I used to be able to follow them but not yesterday, way too much information too quickly. There's no way the Journalists could keep up.

average_runner

appledrop wrote: »

Irish Times reporting that opposition told that the number of cases would have to be on a continuous downward trend before restrictions lifted.

That's never going to happen. We cant get rid of this virus we have to learn to live with it.

Again look at other countries and it is on a constant spiral

PatrickSmithUS

I hope they say that an antibody test and constantly decreasing deaths will lead to a quicker easing of restrictions.

Pinning everything on confirmed cases seems pointless when it's dependent on the number of tests that are actually carried out.

facehugger99

average_runner wrote: »

You should really listen more. They said cant relax the restrictions because the numbers in ICU is too high

And Austria are only relaxing now when their cases are below 10

You should really think more, ICU numbers are high because it's rampant in nursing homes - absolutely nothing to do with restrictions.

NegativeCreep

drunkmonkey wrote: »

The way the numbers were announced yesterday would have taken a matamaticisn not a journalist to disipher them quick enough to ask critical questions. Tony trotted out a lot of numbers and percentages in a short space of time, the journalists are also asking dumb questions a lot would have been known answers from the previous day.

I’ve noticed that he speeds through the numbers. Very hard to keep up

stephenjmcd

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1255763072964313088?s=19

Big drop in ICU numbers yesterday

drunkmonkey

The way the numbers were announced yesterday would have taken a matamaticisn not a journalist to disipher them quick enough to ask critical questions. Tony trotted out a lot of numbers and percentages in a short space of time, the journalists are also asking dumb questions a lot would have been known answers from the previous day.

[Deleted User]

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

No figures exist for real time in hospital. 20k cases are since March. This is primarily affecting terminally ill and end of life. Seasonal influenza effects young people in fare greater numbers. We have no evidence lockdown works.
Your sign of statement is ironic tbh

Do you have any evidence lockdown (which is not what we are doing anyway) or restrictions do not work? You do realise that with an R0 of 2, which is lower than the R0 of this virus, given we were having 20 recorded cases a day, which is far lower than what now know there actually was, when we introduced our first restriction, there should now be 2,500 cases every day and doubling every week until we run out of people. That's called evidence. Where is yours?

appledrop

average_runner wrote: »

You should really listen more. They said cant relax the restrictions because the numbers in ICU is too high

And Austria are only relaxing now when their cases are below 10

Irish Times reporting that opposition told that the number of cases would have to be on a continuous downward trend before restrictions lifted.

That's never going to happen. We cant get rid of this virus we have to learn to live with it.

yosemitesam1

gozunda wrote: »

Hi Confused.

Still dont get if after so many posts - no? Short answer - no it's not just about "people over 70" dying

The current restrictions are there to prevent medical services been overrun by keeping the rate of infection below a certain level.

Looking at the data from 26th April for example* when there was 19,383 confirmed cases

- approx 72% of all cases of Covid-19 were under 65. With those aged over 65 making up the remainder

Of the confirmed cases for all those under 65 - approx 8.5 % (1217) were in Hospital

Of the confirmed cases for those over 65 for the same date approx 10% (1418) were in Hospital

So yes this disease is affecting both young and old. Both young and older people are contracting the disease and of these a fairly significant proportion are being admitted to hospital.

Without restrictions those figures would be a lot higher.

It's really not that difficult to understand tbh ...

*https://www.gov.ie/en/news/7e0924-latest-updates-on-covid-19-coronavirus/

If you allow for the virus travelling a minimum of 5 to 10 times further than originally thought, can those hospitalisation rates of 1-2% not be sustained if we have some opening up of the economy?
Flu hospitalisation rates average over 1% of cases and we have much more capacity than a standard flu season.
Even allowing for a potentially greater percentage of the population getting infected (which is by no means guaranteed) we can still cope with much more infections than are currently happening, unless the HSE hasn't actually increased the capacity of beds to the level they said they would.

JRant

pjohnson wrote: »

Thanks but managed = altered/made up/false/the truth is out there/fake news. Its all conspiratorial rubbish.

This isnt really the thread for constructive thoughts as any thought/plan is met by shrieks of "the people" wont take it.

Absolutely not, managed does not mean made up or fake news or false. Take, for instance, the fact they have stopped giving the median age of those that have died. Why suddenly stop? Well, if you want to manage the numbers it takes the focus off the fact that the majority of deaths are very old people. It's doesn't mean anyone is peddling fake news or lies but more so changing the narrative.

Doesn't seem like it's the thread for you, yet here you are.

average_runner

appledrop wrote: »

Of 377 new cases yesterday half where in nursing homes.

It's getting a joke now. Coming out + saying no no cant relax restrictions until numbers come down. The nursing home situation is scandalous. The whole country cant continue to be held on lockdown because they have messed that up.

The numbers in community are way down. They need to cop on + easy up on restrictions + stop bull****ing us.

You should really listen more. They said cant relax the restrictions because the numbers in ICU is too high

And Austria are only relaxing now when their cases are below 10

JRant

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Any data or evidence to back up that assertion?

It's not my assertion, so no.

drunkmonkey

JRant wrote: »

And that's why the numbers are "still not where we want". They've shifted testing to residential and nursing homes. We will see high rates here because they've been ignored up to this week. They also still have a lot of these places left to test.

There so far behind isn't there an argument to say it's been and gone in a lot of cases.

JRant

Discodog wrote: »

We should know by now where all the new cases are originating from. According to a German study supermarket workers aren't getting infected in any numbers. My anecdotal experience via friends who work in supermarkets backs this up yet they should be most likely to get it.

Unfortunately the critical job of contact tracing & testing is in the hands of a hopeless organisation. Might be better to put the Army in overall control.

And that's why the numbers are "still not where we want". They've shifted testing to residential and nursing homes. We will see high rates here because they've been ignored up to this week. They also still have a lot of these places left to test.

lawrencesummers

Its pretty clear that restrictions can be lifted around the country with the exception of the Dublin Metropolitan area.

The Gardai should focus their attention on Dublin, staff all the access and exit routes, main roads south, east and north, police the on and off ramps of the M50 with major 24 hour check points for the next week actively turn people around who don't have a valid reason for travel and then that can then be reviewed in 5-7 days

There are large areas of the country that are rural with no cases and if travel is restricted from the most infected areas then these areas which are long forgotten about then they can be left forgotten about.

The HSE should then publish all the information in relation to positive tests, and the locations of these tests, along with the date of the positive test allowing places where no positive tests, or patients that are no longer contagious have occurred to move into the first stage of opening up.

There is no reason a golf course / cafe / school / pub in Connemara cant open for the immediate community ONLY and a big reason why a golf course / cafe / school / pub in Dublin cant. Its obvious that as it stands a local soccer / Gaa club in rural areas can return to training without physical contact where it would be foolish to do so in the greater infected Dublin Area.

The idea that these rural uninfected areas and Urban infected areas need to be treated the same with regards lifting restrictions is ridiculous

pjohnson

JRant wrote: »

Another stellar contribution. Some day you might even have an original thought and post something constructive.

Nobody on this thread is claiming the numbers are made up. Some have asked are they being "managed" ie. Releasing numbers as it suits them rather than just the plain facts.

Thanks but managed = altered/made up/false/the truth is out there/fake news. Its all conspiratorial rubbish.

This isnt really the thread for constructive thoughts as any thought/plan is met by shrieks of "the people" wont take it.

[Deleted User]

NegativeCreep wrote: »

What is our current ICU capacity? Think Holohan said yesterday there were 130-odd people in ICU and that was too many but I thought we massively increased our capacity?

We increased our capacity, but at the expense of wide sections of the public and private healthcare system. One of things we need is the ability to return our healthcare system to a semi normal footing