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Relaxation of restrictions Part II

Tokyo

Continuation of the "Relaxation of restrictions" from here.

Please note that all mod warnings and threadbans carry through from the previous thread.

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Theboinkmaster

Deleted User wrote: »

Look what happened in Lombardy with a slow reaction to the virus, 13,500 dead in an area with a population of 10 million in just over two months. Analysis of mortality rates indicate it could be as much as 40% higher, but even at the 13,500 figure it translates to the potential for over 6,000 dead in Ireland in just two month if we had delayed our reaction by even a couple of weeks. And that's with a delayed lockdown not no lockdown. No measure of the restrictions can ignore the deaths that have been prevented already.

I 100% agree with the lockdown - buys time for health service to flatten curve and prepare for managing the virus for next 2 years.

7 weeks now it's over, time to re-open slowly over the coming months.

They've had enough time - we've done our part.

is_that_so

easypazz wrote: »

And Holohan / HSE / Government don't want to admit this.

Not sure this is true at all, they've been perfectly upfront about the testing on that front.

gozunda

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

COVID-19 has only killed about 1,200 in Ireland - over half of which were people in nursing homes on borrowed time anyway.

Compared to lockdown impact:

- people not going to ER/doctors
- people not being let into hospitals for required treatments e.g. cancer
- childline call volume +20%
- violence against women call volume +25%
- suicides due to social isolation and economic recession
- people dropping healthcare due to economic recession
- cuts in health service budgets next year and year after due to economic recession

Think it's pretty obvious.

Covid-19 has "only killed" (your words) 1200 precisely because of restrictions.

Older people and those needing care are not simply on "borrowed time" than you are (as you disgustingly put it.)

A couple of points.

People have been staying away from GPs and AE depts themselves for fear of being infected with Covid-19.

Hospitals were resources and staff were maximised towards tackling Covid-19 admissions.

Vulnerable people ie cancer patients (who are at serious risk from Covid-19) are currently cocooning. Day patients appointments etc cancelled for msny of the same reasons.

Yes children maybe be deeply unhappy with loss of social / school activities and may need a listening ear eg Childline

There is no current evidence that there is any observable increase in self harm or suicide despite this been pathetically used as a stick to malign the current requirement for restictions

Will there be an economic downturn globally next year? Yes there will. Restrictions or no restrictions - that's going happen. Will things get better - yes they will.

Using any of that as a party me-fein type propaganda to claim that we would all be better just carrying on as if nothing had happened is bullcrap. That much is pretty obvious.

is_that_so

growleaves wrote: »

You are another person who hasn't so much as glanced at a summary of the models you are defending.

The numbers of deaths were not revised downwards because of "the success of the lockdowns".

The original models included predictions about the number of deaths with "optimal mitigation policies" of isolation, quarantining, cocooning etc. (Imperial)

The main defense of the lockdown to date is that the polite Swedish people avoided 100,000s of inevitable deaths by behaving themselves, and that other Northern Europeans are incapable of same.

It really just draws attention to the fact that for their approach to work, we all need to be Swedish.

KrustyUCC

easypazz wrote: »

And Holohan / HSE / Government don't want to admit this.

We needed to test the crap out of nursing homes etc

That means an increase in cases

But don't use that as a stick to beat the general public with

SNNUS

Rodin wrote: »

Common sense isn't very common.

My point is that people don't actually know how to disinfect their hands properly.
They put their hands on a dirty item but don't know how to disinfect.
Better not to touch the dirty item in the first place.

I agree but those who do not care about disinfecting their hands properly are the same types that ignore the lockdown restrictions, it could go on forever but they will do what the feck they want. A virus will not put manners on some people..

[Deleted User]

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

COVID-19 has only killed about 1,200 in Ireland - over half of which were people in nursing homes on borrowed time anyway.

Compared to lockdown impact:

- people not going to ER/doctors
- people not being let into hospitals for required treatments e.g. cancer
- childline call volume +20%
- violence against women call volume +25%
- suicides due to social isolation and economic recession
- people dropping healthcare due to economic recession
- cuts in health service budgets next year and year after due to economic recession

Think it's pretty obvious.

Look what happened in Lombardy with a slow reaction to the virus, 13,500 dead in an area with a population of 10 million in just over two months. Analysis of mortality rates indicate it could be as much as 40% higher, but even at the 13,500 figure it translates to the potential for over 6,000 dead in Ireland in just two month if we had delayed our reaction by even a couple of weeks. And that's with a delayed lockdown not no lockdown. No measure of the restrictions can ignore the deaths that have been prevented already.

easypazz

KrustyUCC wrote: »

The majority of new cases are in nursing homes etc

Nothing to do with the general public

And Holohan / HSE / Government don't want to admit this.

easypazz

alwald wrote: »

Let me get this straight, when you blame Holohan/government you like to compare Ireland to other countries for which you can't explain what's happening.

I am not having a go at you I just want to understand the credibility of your posts here

No, somebody else keeps comparing nursing homes in other countries, you will need to speak to them.:rolleyes:

KrustyUCC

Infini wrote: »

Honestly I'm not expecting any changes bar maybe some construction sites coming back online this weekend the new case numbers are still triple digits, until they fall into the low 20's or single digits I can only see this lasting another 2 weeks at least, it sucks for people I know it's that feeling of "cabin fever" getting some they want some normalacy again or at least some progress but it would be better to keep going 2 more weeks to choke the life outta this thing than reopen too soon and see a repeat of the whole thing. Better to do it right the first time and endure it.

The majority of new cases are in nursing homes etc

Nothing to do with the general public

road_high

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

Gyms will surely be one of the last things to open. Don't worry about it, everyone else is terribly out of shape too.

I’ve been doing online classes if anyone else is desperate- there’s lots available online

Rodin

SNNUS wrote: »

Bring your own then, this is very basic stuff, you will never get past the baby steps without common sense.

Common sense isn't very common.

My point is that people don't actually know how to disinfect their hands properly.
They put their hands on a dirty item but don't know how to disinfect.
Better not to touch the dirty item in the first place.

is_that_so

Deleted User wrote: »

They can, by agreeing to elect a new Taoiseach

They've already had a bit of stab at it and failed miserably. Not going to happen except with the putative government partners. We should finally see some movement over the next week or so on government formation seeing as we/they have feck all else to do but wait!

growleaves

Deleted User wrote: »

The evidence being the success of the lockdowns

You are another person who hasn't so much as glanced at a summary of the models you are defending.

The numbers of deaths were not revised downwards because of "the success of the lockdowns".

The original models included predictions about the number of deaths with "optimal mitigation policies" of isolation, quarantining, cocooning etc. (Imperial)

However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems…being overwhelmed many times over. (Imperial)

The main defense of the lockdown to date is that the polite Swedish people avoided 100,000s of inevitable deaths by behaving themselves, and that other Northern Europeans are incapable of same.

road_high

Penfailed wrote: »

Did you visit them all yourself and do an audit?

How do you know plenty of places were fine?

I don't really want an answer to those questions by the way. I know you didn't do an audit as you also know that I didn't. We're going around in circles and will have to agree to disagree. Anecdotally, places were jammed. You can also say that anecdotally, they weren't. It wasn't just social media hysteria though. It was on the news and in the papers.

With a “#stayatthefcukathome” on their social media. Usually classy educated birds

Long_Wave

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

Gyms will surely be one of the last things to open. Don't worry about it, everyone else is terribly out of shape too.

Gyms are being opened up in America

easypazz

Penfailed wrote: »

Did you visit them all yourself and do an audit?

How do you know plenty of places were fine?

I don't really want an answer to those questions by the way. I know you didn't do an audit as you also know that I didn't. We're going around in circles and will have to agree to disagree. Anecdotally, places were jammed. You can also say that anecdotally, they weren't. It wasn't just social media hysteria though. It was on the news and in the papers.

You made a sweeping statement everywhere was jammed.

Not true.

alwald

easypazz wrote: »

Why are you asking me to explain what happened in foreign countries?

How on earth would I know?

Let me get this straight, when you blame Holohan/government you like to compare Ireland to other countries for which you can't explain what's happening.

I am not having a go at you I just want to understand the credibility of your posts here

SNNUS

Rodin wrote: »

I don't believe in a communal hand sanitiser that needs to be touched by fingers.

I don't even think it's the right concentration of alcohol.

Bring your own then, this is very basic stuff, you will never get past the baby steps without common sense.

Breezin

thegetawaycar wrote: »

I just want to question 2 points 1. What do you believe "Let the rest of us get on with out lives responsibly, and free of this childish naughty step politics." means to you?

It means that our authorities take more trouble than simply applying a hammer to the entire population, accompanied by patronising rhetoric about it being our own fault. Right now it's not about fault, but if it is, we should be looking at what they are trying to compensate for in the extreme measures currently in place. We will be looking back at this in years to come and the extremity of the government's actions will be at issue.

The old "normal" is gone and we aren't going back to it for a long time, the travel abroad we are used to is unlikely to reappear in the near future, attending sporting events too, pubs and restaurants (unless they can adhere to social distancing (including the number of staff in the kitchen preparing it) will remain closed for a long time.

Most people know and understand that a return to complete normality in the short term is not an option. It doesn't mean we shouldn't question every measure in the context of its social and economic cost. Very few here are arguing for a total lifting of restrictions, something largely overlooked by lockdowners looking to debate at the extremes. We should look to the Swedish response, which has its own thread, and which addresses the issue of personal and public responsibility.

2. "Police the hot spots, and those blatantly flouting the key restrictions." What are the Key restrictions and if the lockdown laws aren't in place as we are letting people "get on with" our lives, then what exactly are they enforcing?

This also addresses the notion that we all are culpable when in fact there have been a relatively modest number of incidents in predictable places. The key restrictions are those concerned with physical distancing. Instead of focusing on the offenders, we are treated to collective punishment, in line with the official rhetoric, with blanket restrictions on reasonable movement outside 2km, on who people can meet, and on who can work and trade.

Everyone suffers hugely because a few groups can't bring themselves to comply with simple precautions and even seem determined to flout them.

Infini

Honestly I'm not expecting any changes bar maybe some construction sites coming back online this weekend the new case numbers are still triple digits, until they fall into the low 20's or single digits I can only see this lasting another 2 weeks at least, it sucks for people I know it's that feeling of "cabin fever" getting some they want some normalacy again or at least some progress but it would be better to keep going 2 more weeks to choke the life outta this thing than reopen too soon and see a repeat of the whole thing. Better to do it right the first time and endure it.

Also doesn't help we've been getting the good weather we deserve at the worst possible time, I really wish it had been pissing rain most days it would've helped alot to discourage people going out.

easypazz

the kelt wrote: »

As someone who works in an area that would have control over a lot of these car parks everywhere certainly wasnt jammed.

Glendalough was an issue along with a few others but the biggest issue was a bit of education for people to look past google and picking out area number 1,2 and 3 and going with those.

It seemed like people had just discovered wow theres areas you can go for nice walks in, i know lets just pick the most popular. What was offered at the time was that the most popular places could be locked up and that communicated which wasnt seen as necessary.

But for the most part no not jammed everywhere

Its the same when there is a belting sunny Sunday in summer. The people who go to the sea once or twice a year, all head to the same places, and they are rammed.

Plenty of other places where there is never overcrowding, the plebs just don't know where to go.

After over running Glendalough they were the same type that all jammed McDonalds drive thru when they heard it was closing, panic bought all around them in supermarkets etc.

Penfailed

easypazz wrote: »

"Everywhere" was jammed

Not so, plenty of places were fine.

Don't be making claims if they are not true.

Did you visit them all yourself and do an audit?

How do you know plenty of places were fine?

I don't really want an answer to those questions by the way. I know you didn't do an audit as you also know that I didn't. We're going around in circles and will have to agree to disagree. Anecdotally, places were jammed. You can also say that anecdotally, they weren't. It wasn't just social media hysteria though. It was on the news and in the papers.

kwestfan08

SusieBlue wrote: »

I see a few TD’s are pleading with Leo & Simon to allow animal grooming facilities open on the 5th.

My own dog has a coat that requires grooming every 6 weeks, he was booked in for mid March but the appointment was cancelled because animal groomers were not considered to be an essential service & they had to close.
My poor fella is so overdue a grooming at this stage that he’s absolutely miserable, I can’t even take him for long walks on warm days any more because he’s overheating from the weight of his fur.
He can barely see, his eyes are so overgrown in long hair. I already tried to get at him with a razor but he wouldn’t let me near him. We have taken to tying the fur on top of his head into a ponytail to keep it out of his eyes and face.
He’s very uncomfortable and needs to be seen to asap.

Very little human contact is needed to operate these kinds of facilities so there is no reason why they should not be allowed reopen on Tuesday. They absolutely are an essential service and they should never have had to close in the first place.

Ahhh jaysus. Dog groomers an essential service? Would ya stop.

Rodin

JRant wrote: »

Who cares, the trick is to sanitize your hands after you touch it. Basic stuff really.

I don't believe in a communal hand sanitiser that needs to be touched by fingers.

I don't even think it's the right concentration of alcohol.

Thelonious Monk

showpony1 wrote: »

Will we get an update on gyms and barbers this weekend?

Gyms will surely be one of the last things to open. Don't worry about it, everyone else is terribly out of shape too.

road_high

showpony1 wrote: »

Will we get an update on gyms and barbers this weekend?

The update will be no but lots of generic uplifting soundbites to cover over the inaction. A pat on the head from the Taoiseach for those that want one.

SNNUS

Rodin wrote: »

My local Aldi has hand sanitiser at the front door.
How many hands that have touched it before me is acceptable ?

It does not matter how many hands touch it, you touch it and sanitize your hands! Unless you stick your finger up your nose after touching it before sanitizing your hands you should be safe..

showpony1

Will we get an update on gyms and barbers this weekend?

thegetawaycar

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

COVID-19 has only killed about 1,200 in Ireland - over half of which were people in nursing homes on borrowed time anyway.

Compared to lockdown impact:

- people not going to ER/doctors
- people not being let into hospitals for required treatments e.g. cancer
- childline call volume +20%
- violence against women call volume +25%
- suicides due to social isolation and economic recession
- people dropping healthcare due to economic recession
- cuts in health service budgets next year and year after due to economic recession

Think it's pretty obvious.

Holy ****, whatever about the rest of your post, the part in bold is striking.

Also, just to counteract, how much down are traffic accidents, assaults (a huge portion happen after nights out), shoplifting etc...
I also believe (and know of more than one) people are still attending cancer treatments.
Doctors are still open, I was at one recently. People are making a choice not to go, due to fear of the virus as opposed to due to lockdown.
The call volumes are shocking and is a harrowing result of the lockdown agreed.
The last 3 are future issues that remain to be seen and can't be quantified yet.