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Relaxation of restrictions Part II

Tokyo

Continuation of the "Relaxation of restrictions" from here.

Please note that all mod warnings and threadbans carry through from the previous thread.

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FintanMcluskey

LuasSimon wrote: »

Bit much for government to be going on now about relaxation of public .
For the last few weeks Travellers have been going to funerals in large numbers , having 21STs in Longford , having fights , even set up a large campsite in the curragh and it’s allowed why should all non travellers stay at home ??

Civilised people are easier to control and many here will gladly report elderly neighbours for wandering past the 2km restrictions. Playing tennis is also forbidden. The same posters and law enforcement would struggle to be as brave confronting the ethnic minority groups.

coastwatch

There are still 1212 covid patients (confirmed and suspected) in hospital up to 8pm yesterday.
That total number of falling, but only slowly, by around 10 per day.

The total number of covid patients in ICU is also falling slowly, by around 2 to 3 per day, but there are still 118 Covid patients in ICU up to 8pm yesterday. Thats in addition to the 162 patients in ICU for all other medical reasons.

If those numbers continue to fall at the same rate, by May 5th, there would be be around 1100 covid patients still in hospital and around 90 of those in ICU.

It must require a huge effort by medical staff to treat and care for patients in ICU, and even more so patients needing intubation, which requires heavy sedation / induced coma. A huge credit is due to the frontline hospital staff, because the ICU survival rates here seem to be around 90%+, which is far higher than reported in other countries.

I think the decisions around relaxing some restrictions will be very finely balanced, because it will have to take into account, the continuing amount of hospital care required for covid patients, for many months to come. There's plenty of evidence to show how it can quickly get out of control.

Hopefully we can maintain the progress we have seen so far in suppressing the outbreak, getting it to a very low level and keeping it there..

iamwhoiam

titan18 wrote: »

None of us care if they die tbf

We care if they clutter up the ICU beds and need staff to care for them

Unelected CMO

BanditLuke wrote: »

I don't have a job because of the virus yes but I'm delivering food for the elderly and those with physical disabilities 3 days a week for 4 hrs a day, in my own car.

We live in a council house but no council houses have basements as far as I know so incorrect there. What's wrong with council houses BTW?

I've lost money on a small investment because of the virus also but that's life and I value life more than money unlike yourself I'd say.

Is that all you have of have you anything else to add.

Does your car insurance cover those food deliveries? Have you been inspected by an EHO as you are operating a food service?

titan18

normanoffside wrote: »

Here's a link to a study that shows going outside in the Sun means you won't be gasping on a hospital bed.

https://t.co/UkfYv8P8bS?amp=1

Where is your source for your nonsense statement?

There's load of studies going around. For the sun thing, why are there loads of cases in sunnier climates like Spain, Italy, Turkey, Brazil etc then

Thelonious Monk

LuasSimon wrote: »

Bit much for government to be going on now about relaxation of public .
For the last few weeks Travellers have been going to funerals in large numbers , having 21STs in Longford , having fights , even set up a large campsite in the curragh and it’s allowed why should all non travellers stay at home ??

I wouldn't be trying to ape the actions of those neanderthals if I were you

blackcard

So I am going to make a few assumptions.
Say 20,000 have the virus in this country including all those people who are asymptomatic or haven't been tested. Assume that the virus lasts for 2 weeks in an infected person. Assume that in the 2 weeks the average time it takes to pass on the virus is 1 week.
Scenario 1. R = 0.5. After 6 weeks, the number with the virus is 313.
Scenario 2. R = 2. After 6 weeks the number with the virus is 1.28 million.
So essentially it is up to all of us. If we follow procedures rigorously, we can beat this.
If we don't, it could be cataclysmic.

road_high

BanditLuke wrote: »

When you are in hospital lying on a bed gasping for breath because it feels like an elephant is sitting on your chest you won't give a sh1t about the weather outside.

Stay at home.

And I could have a car accident and end up with missing limbs lying in the same place. Should I never drive again? What exactly is your point?

Penfailed

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

What wasnt appropriate was being advised to stock pile food and causing panic among the population. And yes they were advised to stockpile food.

People absolutely were NOT advised to stockpile food for Y2K. If they were, there would have be massive food shortages. Didn't happen.

Unelected CMO

road_high wrote: »

And I could have a car accident and end up with missing limbs lying in the same place. Should I never drive again? What exactly is your point?

You also could get seriously ill from one of Bandit Luke’s food deliveries. I’m extremely concerned that he is most likely doing this without proper HAACP procedures in place or EHO oversight. Ecoli or the like could easily kill elderly/ vuenerable people.

FintanMcluskey

Penfailed wrote: »

People absolutely were NOT advised to stockpile food for Y2K. If they were, there would have be massive food shortages. Didn't happen.

They were by people in positions of public influence. Check out Richard and Judy. Its off topic so we will leave it now.

FintanMcluskey

blackcard wrote: »

So I am going to make a few assumptions.
Say 20,000 have the virus in this country including all those people who are asymptomatic or haven't been tested. Assume that the virus lasts for 2 weeis in an infected person. Assume that in the 2 weeks the average time it takes to pass on the virus is 1 week.
Scenario 1. R = 0.5. After 6 weeks, the number with the virus is 313.
Scenario 2. R = 2. After 6 weeks the number with the virus is 1.28 million.
So essentially it is up to all of us. If we follow procedures rigorously, we can beat this.
If we don't, it could be cataclysmic.

No most people are asymptomatic, about 3.5 million got it here. The peak is over.

[Deleted User]

road_high wrote: »

I’m sceptical of the so called lockdown having any real effect on numbers.

Based on what? The number of people that a person with Covid-19 infects has reduced from 4.7 to below 1. That's down to the lockdown. This has meant our health services haven't been overwhelmed and more people are now alive than otherwise would have been.

martingriff

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Your talking past tense here. What health benefits will exist as of today?

Well there was a councillor in trouble over a lock in in his pub with some associates. He said they were talking business observing distancing rules and the drink did not come from his pub.

Gael23

If they gave an assurance that if people comply then things will be relaxed on May 5th that might get compliance to

normanoffside

titan18 wrote: »

There's load of studies going around. For the sun thing, why are there loads of cases in sunnier climates like Spain, Italy, Turkey, Brazil etc then

You know it hit in the winter in Spain and Italy and they haven’t let people leave their houses since.

Time will tell if that was the correct response.

iamwhoiam

Gael23 wrote: »

If they gave an assurance that if people comply then things will be relaxed on May 5th that might get compliance to

The people who are breaking the rules now will actually continue breaking them if its extended . Nothing will stop them . The rest of us will continue lockdown while the same eejits carry on regardless

sterz

A few days ago I was of the mindset that there would be some sort of relaxation of restrictions but judging by the the articles and comments coming out over the past couple of days I'm fully expecting an extension. If it's another three weeks then that brings us up to just before the June bank holiday weekend, causing another headache for the government.

billyhead

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

No most people are asymptomatic, about 3.5 million got it here. The peak is over.

Where are you getting your 3.5 million figure from?

iamwhoiam

billyhead wrote: »

Where are you getting your 3.5 million figure from?

And where is “ here “

Unelected CMO

iamwhoiam wrote: »

The people who are breaking the rules now will actually continue breaking them if its extended . Nothing will stop them . The rest of us will continue lockdown while the same eejits carry on regardless

I am and have been following every rule and restriction and will continue to do so until May 5th. After that I’ll continue to socially distance but certainly won’t comply with many of the more ridiculous dictums coming from Cervical Check Tony and Lockdown Leo

road_high

iamwhoiam wrote: »

The people who are breaking the rules now will actually continue breaking them if its extended . Nothing will stop them . The rest of us will continue lockdown while the same eejits carry on regardless

Which shows what a waste of time a lockdown is and it's futile to continue it in its current form. It's run its course, enough damage has been done. The cuts coming down the track I'm not sure people have comprehended yet. My local Council is down €8 million already in rates- social housing and other services will be obliterated on those figures.
Replicate that across central government etc and you may get an idea of the challenge ahead.

Cork Boy 53

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

No most people are asymptomatic, about 3.5 million got it here. The peak is over.

What is this claim based on?

trapp

BanditLuke wrote: »

When you are in hospital lying on a bed gasping for breath because it feels like an elephant is sitting on your chest you won't give a sh1t about the weather outside.

Stay at home.

Dear oh dear you're still here my poor old chum.

Luke my man life cannot be lived without risk.

If we choose to stay at home for fear of everything that may happen we'd never open the bedroom door.

Life is short for everybody. Even if you stay at home forever you will still die.

Forgive people for wanting to live rather than sit inside watching the TV, we'll all be 6 foot under for long enough.

The measures in place are needed to slow the spread of the virus for a short while to allow us to prepare to live with the virus.

We need to start doing this now, slowly but surely, as there might never be a vaccine.

And I'm still waiting for your response my poor friend to my question.

Why do you think, despite all the evidence, that the virus has a greater impact on children and young people rather than our older population?

Reality is you're peddling negative nonsense my poor man.

[Deleted User]

titan18 wrote: »

There's load of studies going around. For the sun thing, why are there loads of cases in sunnier climates like Spain, Italy, Turkey, Brazil etc then

Ireland in winter is like the Tropics compared to Lombardy, where I was never so cold to the bone in my life. Turkey too. Much of Spain except parts of Andalusia can be down right chilly in winter. A lot of our better quality winter clothes are produced in these countries for local market and export. As for Brazil, well that’s pretty warm throughout, as far as I know. And indeed Singapore is a tropical lowland place located almost bang on the equator, so indeed the virus doesn’t appear to particularly fussy on climate.

On the other hand, first world hot places have majority of indoor places of socialisation which are very well air conditioned, sometimes almost to the point of being chilly.

ZX7R

Much less people out and about in my area compared to yesterday.
People seem to be listening again!

Gael23

trapp wrote: »

Dear oh dear you're still here my poor old chum.

Luke my man life cannot be lived without risk.

If we choose to stay at home for fear of everything that may happen we'd never open the bedroom door.

Life is short for everybody. Even if you stay at home forever you will still die.

Forgive people for wanting to live rather than sit inside watching the TV, we'll all be 6 foot under for long enough.

The measures in place are needed to slow the spread of the virus for a short while to allow us to prepare to live with the virus.

We need to start doing this now, slowly but surely, as there might never be a vaccine.

And I'm still waiting for your response my poor friend to my question.

Why do you think, despite all the evidence, that the virus has a greater impact on children and young people rather than our older population?

Reality is you're peddling negative nonsense my poor man.

Life is too short to be stuck indoors for weeks on end.

KrustyUCC

iamwhoiam wrote: »

The people who are breaking the rules now will actually continue breaking them if its extended . Nothing will stop them . The rest of us will continue lockdown while the same eejits carry on regardless

Yup compliance is very high amongst the general population

It's going to be very hard for the government to sell more of "You're doing so so well, flattening the curve, R0 below 1, saving lives, hospital cases falling, ICU cases falling but its not enough. Here's another 2,3,4 weeks extension before we can think of relaxing any restictions

Another 2,3,4 weeks of not seeing friends, family, those in relationships

Come 5th of May it will have been 53 days of restrictions

VonLuck

road_high wrote: »

Which shows what a waste of time a lockdown is and it's futile to continue it in its current form.

Where's the logic there? The majority of the population are following the restrictions, but because a minority are flaunting the guidelines it's a waste of time?

cherryghost

I'm probably not the only one but still in a minority here... but for my family our complete lockdown at our house started essentially March 12th due to close contact with my father who later tested positive. I've been out shopping 3 times, as there was issues with online orders. One of the times I spent 5 hours walking back and forth to get groceries as I was the only one able to do the shopping and couldn't carry it all.

Today I'm feeling truly the worst of it, after buildup this week, not from the virus itself, but from a mental health point of view. Working from home has benefits but 6 weeks of it has me in the edge. Combined with a screaming toddler in the terrible 2s, limited social interaction and pregnant wife I am really feeling down and out. I'm not going to suddenly ignore restrictions in place, but it absolutely infuriates me the lack of respect and complacency in our area. I fear another extension in the cards as some people haven't done enough.