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Relaxation of restrictions Part II

Tokyo

Continuation of the "Relaxation of restrictions" from here.

Please note that all mod warnings and threadbans carry through from the previous thread.

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hopalongcass

seamus wrote: »

The short answer is that lots of the numbers up to this week have been historical; that is the x00 cases revealed may have been from swabs collected in the past 7-10 days.
It means that realistically we don't know how we're doing today, we can only see where we were a few days past and extrapolate based on that.

It's also why we've only been able to say things are flattening or have peaked, when a few days have passed since flattening started.

This is the same everywhere, not just an Irish thing.

The government have been publishing normalised figures - that is, graphs showing case numbers and death numbers based on the day they occurred, not on the day the result came back.

The statistical analyses and planning done by the NPHET have been based on these normalised charts, not on the day-to-day new case figures. But for the rest of us the day-to-day numbers are a decent rough guideline as they still balance out on average.

But does it not point to how alarmist the Media is being running saying x amount just died yesterday when in reality maybe unlikely but it could be different because nobody has test results back from yesterday yet.

News is meant to be factual not telling people x amount just died today when in reality they died a few days ago and they are averaging it out with graphs,i mean how many posters here have posted alarmist comments saying x amount have just died yesterday if its actually impossible to know how many died or were infected yesterday.

Strumms

Spencer Brown wrote: »

No it won't be forever but it's completely acceptable that people are not comfortable with the idea that it will be for months more. Anyone who suggests they aren't is being lambasted for it.

The only people being lambasted are those not adhering to social distancing and those breaking social distancing. I doubt there is anyone who is happy about it.

hmmm

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Correct, we are seeing new cases everyday because people are still going around spreading it

No evidence of that, and at the press conference they said there were seeing no growth in community spread.

The virus will spread inside families if one has it.

Most people are doing the right thing. We don't need 100% compliance to slow this thing down, we need most people doing the right thing.

the kelt

tobefrank321 wrote: »

If that is the case, then why are we seeing new cases effectively at an all time high?

Something doesn't add up.

With an extreme lockdown, you'd expect at this stage, to see numbers going down.

And before someone says we were going down, its obvious that was because of testing limitations. Once they sorted out the testing logistics and ramp up testing, they got and will get a true measure of the spread, which appears to be very high.

But if the numbers are high and hospitalisations low, then this may be more manageable than we first thought.

Its important to get an accurate picture of how many people are really infected.

This is one of the problems.

One thing that struck me yesterday listening to updates was it seems to be getting a little all over the place.

We get numbers flashed at us, for example its x number of new cases in the last 24 hours, but then get told actually most of those new cases probably werent within the last 24 hours and could have been days before. Then we are told actually its a big increase because of more nursing home tests and community transimission is really really low.

We are told great news that the R0 has fallen even further and community tranmission effectively supressed and we apparently reached a plateau a week ago but wouldnt be easing restrictions if this was may 5th even though an R0 below 1 and coming down from the plateau were 2 criteria.

Then we have people obsessed with tables as if its some competition where the rules are completely arbitrary. Its seems completely pointless comparing ourselves to other countries when they count their numbers differently everywhere for example.

People are talking out of both sides of their mouths at the moment and its getting a little bit all over the place now in all honesty.

If i want to find stats, find opinion pieces and adapt tables etc to prove we are all doomed if we ease restrictions i can do so easily.

Likewise if i want to go the other way, find opinion pieces, stats and adapt tables to show we are grand now, easing of restrictions will be fine, again i can do so easily.

Personally speaking the longer its left without clarification and a bit of guidance the worse its going to get, i mean we had Leo Varadkar talking about May 5th being the big day and then on the other hand no one seems to have a clue what the "big day" means.

Theres an add on the telly for the lotto where a man wins the euromillions and buys an island for the nation, when asked hows that going to work he replies "ah sure we'll figure it out" and every time i see updates, press conferences and interviews thats all i can think of as a comparison.

Whatever is happening, easing of some restrictions, easing of very little, no easing at all etc i do think we need some sort of plan, we are just over a week out from Leos "big day" as he put it himself and no matter what happens the people will still need to be brought along to buy into whatever measures there are because there are still going to be restrictions of some sort.

Lets have a plan!

The Mulk

gauchesnell wrote: »

ohhh exciting. no progress yet on us returning but its possible

PS too,we've been told 25% staff allowed into the building initially and to determine within each team where staff will sit and on what days to attend the office to maintain social distancing.
Although this depends on the Govt. anouncement

Cork Boy 53

Nermal wrote: »

Olympic-level mental gymnastics.

Those of us who want this economic hara-kiri to end are 'soft'.

People who want us all to stay indoors, because of a virus with the same chance of killing under-65s as a nine-mile car journey, are 'brave'.

End this madness now. Waiting till May 5th is just compounding our error.

You`re still peddling this nonsense I see. What`s madness is your head in the sand attitude and is an example of the mindset of those who will be responsible for the restrictions staying in place longer than could otherwise have been the case.

newcavanman

The biggest problem in this crisis, is that we have a generation of politicians in power who have only one objective, which is to stay in power as long as possible, and an inability to take serious decisions regarding the economy. Its very easy to say ," we need to shut things down ", its a hell of a lot harder to restart it. T he casualty list is going to be horrendous and people will be stunned at some of the companies that go to the wall.
The easy way out is to defer everything to the Medical Experts, whodont appear to understand how the economy needs to work. Its very simple, no working economy, no money for health. Lets see how they all explain that

hmmm

The Mulk wrote: »

PS too,we've been told 25% staff allowed into the building initially and to determine within each team where staff will sit and on what days to attend the office to maintain social distancing.
Although this depends on the Govt. anouncement

We had a discussion also. No-one wants to travel on public transport. I think the office will be open only for the employees who really want to get out of their house.

The Mulk

hmmm wrote: »

We had a discussion also. No-one wants to travel on public transport. I think the office will be open only for the employees who really want to get out of their house.

True, we've enough car parking to manage 25% returning to work, i'm not sure how people who depend on public transport would feel

Tacitus Kilgore

hmmm wrote: »

We had a discussion also. No-one wants to travel on public transport. I think the office will be open only for the employees who really want to get out of their house.

My office is planning on forcing everyone back ,regardless of whether they can work at home or not.

It's ok though, they're putting a perspex screen between the desks...

Whiplash85

Tacitus Kilgore wrote: »

My office is planning on forcing everyone back ,regardless of whether they can work at home or not.

It's ok though, they're putting a perspex screen between the desks...

What line of work are you in?

niallo27

BanditLuke wrote: »

I've said a few times now but a lot will genuinely be cracking up having to spend time with their families and i feel genuinely sorry for them, i mean that guys who are reading this and are finding that difficult.

We've found it fantastic tbh and we are all very relaxed about the situation doing our bit for the country and supporting the health service.

I'd advice the ones "suffering" under the current soft lockdown to get out early in the morning for a walk 7am or so. Listen to the birds sing, breath in the lack of pollution and be thankful to be alive. This to will pass.

Support the frontline.

Listening to the birds wont pay your mortgage in 6 months though.

bazermc

I live in Dublin City Center and my road only has on street parking no driveways.

Two weeks ago there wasn’t a free spot on the road to be got, however today you could park a couple of buses up, it’s like a regular work day.

BanditLuke

niallo27 wrote: »

Listening to the birds wont pay your mortgage in 6 months though.

Or you could be just well dead, you won't hear them then at all.

normanoffside

niallo27 wrote: »

Listening to the birds wont pay your mortgage in 6 months though.

It will when you are in comfy social housing like Luke

Tacitus Kilgore

Whiplash85 wrote: »

What line of work are you in?

Construction

[Deleted User]

niallo27 wrote: »

Listening to the birds wont pay your mortgage in 6 months though.

This. Those supporting the extension of this lockdown through the next few months are likely pretty well set up at home, in terms of their job and the nature of their living space. And don’t care a jot about those that are not

facehugger99

newcavanman wrote: »

The biggest problem in this crisis, is that we have a generation of politicians in power who have only one objective, which is to stay in power as long as possible, and an inability to take serious decisions regarding the economy. Its very easy to say ," we need to shut things down ", its a hell of a lot harder to restart it. T he casualty list is going to be horrendous and people will be stunned at some of the companies that go to the wall.
The easy way out is to defer everything to the Medical Experts, whodont appear to understand how the economy needs to work. Its very simple, no working economy, no money for health. Lets see how they all explain that

It will actually be fascinating to watch the penny slowly start to drop with the lockdown brigade.

Social-welfare cuts, pension cuts, infrastructure spending slashed, tax hikes - all coming over the next few months.

There's a load of lads drawing €350 a week, watching Netflix thinking life is great - they're in for a rude awakening.

The political landscape is likely to see significant upheavals. The bill, as usual, will be presented to the hard-pressed, private sector taxpayers. The forever-home brigade will still have their hands out and pensioners are used to being pandered to by all the main political parties. It'll be interesting to see how that's managed with a collapse of revenues.

nacho libre

hmmm wrote: »

No evidence of that, and at the press conference they said there were seeing no growth in community spread.
.

What about the 549 cases outside of nursing homes. Is this due to more testing or is it the case that there is in fact community spread, albeit at a slow rate. Are we sure all these cases can be attributed to frontline worker infecting family members they come into contact with?

rusty the athlete

I find it alarming that Ireland still has, by and large, its borders open. A look at the Dublin airport arrivals and departures today confirms this. More revealing is the site:

https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm

which reveals that Ireland is the most open airport in the world just now. Compare the sole requirement for "Passengers arriving in Ireland (Rep.) are required to self-quarantine for 14 days" with nearly every other airport on the planet and you will see what I mean. Seems rather pointless to "cocoon" or limit oneself to a 2km walk when the floodgates are open elsewhere.

[Deleted User]

rusty the athlete wrote: »

I find it alarming that Ireland still has, by and large, its borders open. A look at the Dublin airport arrivals and departures today confirms this. More revealing is the site:

https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm

which reveals that Ireland is the most open airport in the world just now. Compare the sole requirement for "Passengers arriving in Ireland (Rep.) are required to self-quarantine for 14 days" with nearly every other airport on the planet and you will see what I mean. Seems rather pointless to "cocoon" or limit oneself to a 2km walk when the floodgates are open elsewhere.

Reported in the Irish Times this morning that self isolation will be enforced now for all arrivals. Details taken upon arrival, and then you’d be checked on by AGS to ensure you are home. With, presumably, sizeable fines and possible imprisonments if you are not (Australia has the same system with a $11k fine or 6 months in prison)

Strumms

rusty the athlete wrote: »

I find it alarming that Ireland still has, by and large, its borders open. A look at the Dublin airport arrivals and departures today confirms this. More revealing is the site:

https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm

which reveals that Ireland is the most open airport in the world just now. Compare the sole requirement for "Passengers arriving in Ireland (Rep.) are required to self-quarantine for 14 days" with nearly every other airport on the planet and you will see what I mean. Seems rather pointless to "cocoon" or limit oneself to a 2km walk when the floodgates are open elsewhere.

IRELAND (REP.) - published 20.04.2020
Passengers arriving in Ireland (Rep.) are required to self-quarantine for 14 days.
- This does not apply when arriving from Northern Ireland.
- This does not apply to essential supply chain workers, for example, a pilot or a haulier.

Spencer Brown

rusty the athlete wrote: »

I find it alarming that Ireland still has, by and large, its borders open. A look at the Dublin airport arrivals and departures today confirms this. More revealing is the site:

https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm

which reveals that Ireland is the most open airport in the world just now. Compare the sole requirement for "Passengers arriving in Ireland (Rep.) are required to self-quarantine for 14 days" with nearly every other airport on the planet and you will see what I mean. Seems rather pointless to "cocoon" or limit oneself to a 2km walk when the floodgates are open elsewhere.

It's irrelevant, nobody is travelling here unless they absolutely have to anyway.

It's amazing how many people fall for the measures governments have put in place purely for optics. It's why Trump is so popular, it's not difficult to fool a lot of people.

LiquidZeb

BanditLuke wrote: »

Or you could be just well dead, you won't hear them then at all.

That's not really addressing his point, is it? At some point the banks and building societies will be looking for the money they're owed. If people are unemployed and their only source of income is a social welfare payment that's likely to be deducted into the ground what are people supposed to do.

The virus is a great threat to people but so is economic ruination. We need to avoid developing tunnel vision and ignoring all problems outside the virus. It won't end well.

Cork Boy 53

rusty the athlete wrote: »

I find it alarming that Ireland still has, by and large, its borders open. A look at the Dublin airport arrivals and departures today confirms this. More revealing is the site:

https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm

which reveals that Ireland is the most open airport in the world just now. Compare the sole requirement for "Passengers arriving in Ireland (Rep.) are required to self-quarantine for 14 days" with nearly every other airport on the planet and you will see what I mean. Seems rather pointless to "cocoon" or limit oneself to a 2km walk when the floodgates are open elsewhere.

This point has been raised several times. The time when airports and seaports should have been closed was around mid February when cases started to take off in Italy and when it would have been a significant factor in delaying the spread of the virus in this country. However at this point in time the virus is rampant throughout Ireland and in any case the number of people who are still travelling on these flights is minimal.

mandrake04

Deleted User wrote: »

Reported in the Irish Times this morning that self isolation will be enforced now for all arrivals. Details taken upon arrival, and then you’d be checked on by AGS to ensure you are home. With, presumably, sizeable fines and possible imprisonments if you are not (Australia has the same system with a $11k fine or 6 months in prison)

In Australia you are put in a hotel room for 14 days with no key, guarded by armed Navy/Army.

There no going home.

www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/australia/coronavirus-quarantine-hotel-rules-for-returning-travellers-to-australia/news-story/0e13698bd804b2505bc6205de8dc04ba

Whiplash85

Deleted User wrote: »

This. Those supporting the extension of this lockdown through the next few months are likely pretty well set up at home, in terms of their job and the nature of their living space. And don’t care a jot about those that are not

I think they are most likely curtain twitchers and probably did not have a job to begin with. The restrictions did not change life too much or hit them hard so they are happy with the status quo. Its a kind of leveller for them. From a cursory glance at some of the volume of posts I would say this could be a distinct possibility. Either that or their employers are paying them to be on boards.ie.

[Deleted User]

mandrake04 wrote: »

In Australia you are put in a hotel room for 14 days with no key, guarded by armed Navy/Army.

There no going home.

www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/australia/coronavirus-quarantine-hotel-rules-for-returning-travellers-to-australia/news-story/0e13698bd804b2505bc6205de8dc04ba

Okay, is like that in some states. Not all

Edit: what you have quoted is only if you do not have your own place to self isolate

trapp

I'm just wondering has it home what exactly is happening here and worldwide.

We're hearing stay at home, clap the frontline, watch netflix, enjoy family life and so forth but it seems fake or forced positivity.

In Ireland alone this is what's happening.

Thousands of people are now going to unemployed and all the effects of that

Many, many shops and businesses will never reopen

Very few pubs, restaurants will survive

The major sports of this country gaelic games, soccer and rugby are banned indefinitely both for large events and at local level. No more all irelands.

Our children can't mix with each other or go to school

Our young people can't go to college (online studying is not the same)

Our children can no longer play sport. Let that sink in for a second.

Funerals, weddings and so on are no more.

18ths, 21sts, 40ths, are no more.

Socialising in groups is no more. How do our young people meet a partner? Genuine question.

Concerts, festivals, parades, community days are no more.

We're heading into a depression, never mind a recession and emigration for a better life is off the table.

Many, many people in this country will be dependent on the state.

Most people I talk to still think we'll get back to some type of normal soon or that we'll have a vaccine to save the day. That could be years away.

Is life as outlined above sustainable or will the **** hit the fan over the summer and into the autumn.

I don't think the way we're going is just making a sacrifice for the frontline as it's being portrayed by politicians and in the media.

From what I can see it's complete destruction of our lives.

showpony1

So what can we expect on May 5th?