Relaxation of restrictions Part II

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

I don't know if I'll have work myself, but it's out of my control. I just don't see the point in complaining about it all day, it wont achieve anything. The Gov are hardly making these decisions lightly, for me what we're doing now are the least bad options.

You must be in a better economic position than me and a lot of people if you can have that cavalier an attitude towards your employment status so.

Nermal wrote: »

Olympic-level mental gymnastics.

Those of us who want this economic hara-kiri to end are 'soft'.

People who want us all to stay indoors, because of a virus with the same chance of killing under-65s as a nine-mile car journey, are 'brave'.

End this madness now. Waiting till May 5th is just compounding our error.

I don't know about you but I haven't been staying inside, I've been out more than ever the last few weeks with the nice weather. No one is asking you to stay inside.

LiquidZeb wrote: »

You must be in a better economic position than me and a lot of people if you can have that cavalier an attitude towards your employment status so.

I have a few grand in savings, that's all. Cavalier or not, what are my options here? There's no point in panicking.

polesheep

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

As someone who had a mother who experienced life throughout the WW2 Blitz in the London area let me assure you that society being closed down is not what is happening in Ireland now at all.

As someone who had a mother who was a great baker, let me assure you that her cakes were the best in the world.

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

I have a few grand in savings, that's all. Cavalier or not, what are my options here? There's no point in panicking.

Well people who have mortgages or other financial commitments are definitely panicking. The covid payment, which is likely to be reduced in the coming month won't meet the mortgage and other living expenses. How long do you reckon the banks and building societies will give people?

Cork Boy 53

growleaves wrote: »

There was no shutdown during the London Blitz. Schools and universities, examinations, arts (theatre, opera, music, dance), museums, book shops, scientific research, live sports etc. were all kept going.

Londoners could have shut these things down and hid in air-raid shelters for the duration but choose not to for reasons of morale mainly.

That was true to some extent but there were frequent disruptions for the duration of the Blitz after air raid warnings were given when they did have to take shelter.

tobefrank321

Breezin wrote: »

Anyone who considers the current regulations as not strict must have lived a very constrained existence to start with. Our whole society has been effectively closed down.

If that is the case, then why are we seeing new cases effectively at an all time high?

Something doesn't add up.

With an extreme lockdown, you'd expect at this stage, to see numbers going down.

And before someone says we were going down, its obvious that was because of testing limitations. Once they sorted out the testing logistics and ramp up testing, they got and will get a true measure of the spread, which appears to be very high.

But if the numbers are high and hospitalisations low, then this may be more manageable than we first thought.

Its important to get an accurate picture of how many people are really infected.

Nermal

growleaves wrote: »

There was no shutdown during the London Blitz. Schools and universities, examinations, arts (theatre, opera, music, dance), museums, book shops, scientific research, live sports etc. were all kept going.

Londoners could have shut these things down and hid in air-raid shelters for the duration but choose not to for reasons of morale mainly.

Indeed. 43,000 Londoners died in the Blitz, a fatality rate of 0.54%. Higher than current best estimates of that of the virus!

polesheep

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

I have a few grand in savings, that's all. Cavalier or not, what are my options here? There's no point in panicking.

Panic is precisely what we've had for the past six weeks. Time now for some reasoned thinking in order to save society from further damage.

LiquidZeb wrote: »

Well people who have mortgages or other financial commitments are definitely panicking. The covid payment, which is likely to be reduced in the coming month won't meet the mortgage and other living expenses. How long do you reckon the banks and building societies will give people?

I have a mortgage, but I really don't think anyone is going to get evicted over this, it's rare anyone gets evicted by banks anyway in Ireland and they wont stand a chance in the post covid environment, that's my take on it anyway.

tobefrank321 wrote: »

If that is the case, then why are we seeing new cases effectively at an all time high?

Something doesn't add up.

With an extreme lockdown, you'd expect at this stage, to see numbers going down.

And before someone says we were going down, its obvious that was because of testing limitations. Once they sorted out the testing logistics and ramp up testing, they got and will get a true measure of the spread, which appears to be very high.

But if the numbers are high and hospitalisations low, then this may be more manageable than we first thought.

Its important to get an accurate picture of how many people are really infected.

I'd say a lot of the increase is down to the ravaging of the nursing homes by the virus. Whatever else holohan and the government have bollocksed that side of things.

polesheep

tobefrank321 wrote: »

If that is the case, then why are we seeing new cases effectively at an all time high?

Something doesn't add up.

With an extreme lockdown, you'd expect at this stage, to see numbers going down.

And before someone says we were going down, its obvious that was because of testing limitations. Once they sorted out the testing logistics and ramp up testing, they got and will get a true measure of the spread, which appears to be very high.

But if the numbers are high and hospitalisations low, then this may be more manageable than we first thought.

Its important to get an accurate picture of how many people are really infected.

It always was. Full societal lockdown was a knee-jerk reaction. We should have calmly locked down the nursing homes and taken measures to protect the vulnerable while keeping the economy moving as best as possible.

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

I have a mortgage, but I really don't think anyone is going to get evicted over this, it's rare anyone gets evicted by banks anyway in Ireland and they wont stand a chance in the post covid environment, that's my take on it anyway.

I know evictions happen rarely in ireland compared to other EU countries but Id say in the event tens of thousands are defaulting they might become a bit more ruthless.

normanoffside

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

That was true to some extent but there were frequent disruptions for the duration of the Blitz after air raid warnings were given when they did have to take shelter.

Therefore you posted a false equivalence in your previous post.

BanditLuke wrote: »

Decisions are always going to be taken on medical advice and yesterday seen the highest number of recorded new cases nationwide so at the minute no chance of a relaxation of anything. People have had the chance to be responsible but they've ruined it for everyone by not being.

Varadkar will now be asking for another 2 weeks imo and will plead with people to actually stay home. He may well ask the army to help with the measues as it's become clear the Gardai aren't capable enough or haven't got the respect of the general public to enforce the measures.

Sad times.

100%. All people were asked to do was tone down their lives and movements. Not ideal but the prize was lives saved and a great opportunity for the country to come together and succeed by staying away from each other, by sitting in front of the tv, by staying close to home, by walking in your local park and that happens it’s lives saved and back to normality sooner..

Even with the prize of helping to save lives large swathes of Irish can’t manage it. If saving lives isn’t a motivator we’ll, you won’t find another one, ohhh wait, maybe getting back to earning shït loads of cash might be.... but hey.

seamus

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

To think we managed to get through the emergency during WW2 where electricity and food were scarce.

I think comparisons with World Wars and rationing are very limited.

In lockdown we are deprived of a primary pillar of survival; society. This is the one thing that sets it apart from other crises. Sure in some areas there were curfews or rules about lighting, but this was regional. A countrywide lockdown was never done. Social contact was available, community support was available, while food and other resources may have been scarce.

In this regard, we're in an oppostite issue; food and other resources are plentiful, but social contact and community supports are being rationed.

Many people would pretty gladly go through six weeks of food rationing and power cuts if it meant they could spend the time in the company of family and friends.

Yes, people will get through this, but I wouldn't minimise it by claiming that rationing was "worse". It's fundamentally different.

LiquidZeb wrote: »

I know evictions happen rarely in ireland compared to other EU countries but Id say in the event tens of thousands are defaulting they might become a bit more ruthless.

Quite the opposite. Eviction from the family home is a long and complicated process in Ireland, that frequently ends up with the person staying in their home paying rent to the bank.
Even coming into this year we've had a massive arrears backlog - people who cannot catch up on their mortgage and banks who didn't have the appetite to attempt to repossess it legally; because it would cost a lot of money and gain very little.

In the event that this gets even worse again, there is zero legal capacity to deal with it. If the banks started proceedings against lots of people, each case would take the guts of a decade to come to completion.

There is both safety and power in numbers in this regard. If tens of thousands of people end up in arrears or default, a new NAMA-like process will be required to take on these mortgages because the banks will be paralysed.

Mic 1972

polesheep wrote: »

Panic is precisely what we've had for the past six weeks. Time now for some reasoned thinking in order to save society from further damage.

Panic is what you have, at lease going by your daily posts

Strumms wrote: »

100%. All people were asked to do was tone down their lives and movements. Not ideal but the prize was lives saved and a great opportunity for the country to come together and succeed by staying away from each other, by sitting in front of the tv, by staying close to home, by walking in your local park and that happens it’s lives saved and back to normality sooner..

Even with the prize of helping to save lives large swathes of Irish can’t manage it. If saving lives isn’t a motivator we’ll, you won’t find another one, ohhh wait, maybe getting back to earning shït loads of cash might be.... but hey.

Yes if only all those stupid selfish Irish people could be just like you.

Cork Boy 53

polesheep wrote: »

As someone who had a mother who was a great baker, let me assure you that her cakes were the best in the world.

I have no doubt you consider they were.

Is it that different ? What we have no is access to our loved ones ok but entertainment in the most technological advanced time ever. WhatsApp, Skype, hundreds of tv channels, Netflix...we can still be in contact.

Mic 1972

tobefrank321 wrote: »

If that is the case, then why are we seeing new cases effectively at an all time high?

Something doesn't add up.

With an extreme lockdown, you'd expect at this stage, to see numbers going down.

And before someone says we were going down, its obvious that was because of testing limitations. Once they sorted out the testing logistics and ramp up testing, they got and will get a true measure of the spread, which appears to be very high.

But if the numbers are high and hospitalisations low, then this may be more manageable than we first thought.

Its important to get an accurate picture of how many people are really infected.

Correct, we are seeing new cases everyday because people are still going around spreading it

hopalongcass

Genuine issue i'd appreciate if someone could explain to me about this whole thing,we are getting infection rates and death rates on a per daily basis but as was proved in the case of Mary Lou it takes a while to get results back,so are the rates of deaths and infections from previous days averaged out?

How are they proving so many are infected/dying per day?when they haven't got tests that come back that fast.

donaghs

Strumms wrote: »

Even with the prize of helping to save lives large swathes of Irish can’t manage it. If saving lives isn’t a motivator we’ll, you won’t find another one, ohhh wait, maybe getting back to earning shït loads of cash might be.... but hey.

Sensible people are asking at what point do the restrictions do more long-term damage to human life than death from the virus, and what can be done to chart a new course, e.g. phased opening up, going back to work and maintaining some social distancing, continuing to protect the elderly. Its actually the most humane way of looking at the bigger picture.

Takes slightly deeper thinking than posting a "#StayHome" pic on Facebook.

seamus

hopalongcass wrote: »

Genuine issue i'd appreciate if someone could explain to me about this whole thing,we are getting infection rates and death rates on a per daily basis but as was proved in the case of Mary Lou it takes a while to get results back,so are the rates of deaths and infections from previous days averaged out?

How are they proving so many are infected/dying per day?when they haven't got tests that come back that fast.

The short answer is that lots of the numbers up to this week have been historical; that is the x00 cases revealed may have been from swabs collected in the past 7-10 days.
It means that realistically we don't know how we're doing today, we can only see where we were a few days past and extrapolate based on that.

It's also why we've only been able to say things are flattening or have peaked, when a few days have passed since flattening started.

This is the same everywhere, not just an Irish thing.

The government have been publishing normalised figures - that is, graphs showing case numbers and death numbers based on the day they occurred, not on the day the result came back.

The statistical analyses and planning done by the NPHET have been based on these normalised charts, not on the day-to-day new case figures. But for the rest of us the day-to-day numbers are a decent rough guideline as they still balance out on average.

donaghs wrote: »

Sensible people are asking at what point do the restrictions do more long-term damage to human life than death from the virus, and what can be done to chart a new course, e.g. phased opening up, going back to work and maintaining some social distancing, continuing to protect the elderly. Its actually the most humane way of looking at the bigger picture.

Takes slightly deeper thinking than posting a "#StayHome" pic on Facebook.

The ultimate damage to human life is death. Sensible people are ascertaining how to minimize casualties while plotting a return to some degree of a safe normality, in time.

My thinking is in fact deeper than having my face buried in Facebook,

Spencer Brown

Strumms wrote: »

Is it that different ? What we have no is access to our loved ones ok but entertainment in the most technological advanced time ever. WhatsApp, Skype, hundreds of tv channels, Netflix...we can still be in contact.

Honestly who gives a **** about having Netflix etc. People enjoy socialising, face to face human contact, playing sports with their friends, informal chats with colleagues in the canteen.

We're genetically programmed to derive pleasure from these things and technology will never replace them.

I presume you are in tip top condition physically and mentally as you are so vociferous about following the advice of experts? Or like everyone else on the planet do you only follow advice when it suits you?

Spencer Brown wrote: »

Honestly who gives a **** about having Netflix etc. People enjoy socialising, face to face human contact, playing sports with their friends, informal chats with colleagues in the canteen.

Right, but we can't have those things for a while! You just have to deal with it for now. It wont be forever.

gauchesnell

Padraig Mor wrote: »

Through work as well have also seen plans for certain public sector workplaces (currently working from home) to be back in on the dot of May 5th at 50% capacity - i.e. people working alternate days etc. They'll all be classified as essential workers (which they're not) if necessary.

ohhh exciting. no progress yet on us returning but its possible

Spencer Brown

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

Right, but we can't have those things for a while! You just have to deal with it for now. It wont be forever.

No it won't be forever but it's completely acceptable that people are not comfortable with the idea that it will be for months more. Anyone who suggests they aren't is being lambasted for it.