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Relaxation of restrictions Part II

Tokyo

Continuation of the "Relaxation of restrictions" from here.

Please note that all mod warnings and threadbans carry through from the previous thread.

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begbysback

Supercell wrote: »

Anecdotal I know, when the lockdown started i could go out for a jog in my local park without having too many detours due to social distancing. Last week I decided to avoid it altogether as the place is full of people picnicing, kids on bikes everywhere etc so I changed to using the paths around the local area, was ok, very few people encountered and with a careful glance I could run on the road to get around them.

This week that's gone too, the roads are far more busy, there are far more people on the paths walking around, its not safe or practical to run out on the road every 100 meters or so anymore no matter how cautious.

I've taken to early morning runs, but the way things are headed those are going to have to get earlier and earlier. Not anywhere near normal volumes of people out and about but definitely to my mind far more than last week, which had more than the week before and so on.
I don't see how social distancing is going to work for everyone in urban areas (not just the joggers!) once the restrictions are lifted.
My wife tells me that in China that face masks are obligatory everywhere in public but there is no social distancing for this reason, they seem to have it under control now.

Hang in there till I call Leo and ask can he have the guards start arresting people, hoping that gives you a clearer run in the mornings.

And China can be ignored for the foreseeable future.

[Deleted User]

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

It would seem that quite a few posters here are choosing to bury their heads in the sand and still believe this nonsense.

You essentially have some folk that think they are the sh1t as they earn a few quid but in reality they are so loaded up with loans etc that they are living paycheck to paycheck. That obviously won't be the message they come out with, it's all for the public good w@nk with the odd mention of depression will get worse etc. They won't say that they are struggling like fook to keep the show on the road.

Initially they weren't bothered as it was hospitality & retail staff etc who were effected so they were all in for the public health measures but now as they are realising that perhaps the lining of their own pockets might be effected they are fairly sh1tting themselves and bleating on about the economy and their kids not getting the benefit of the spelling tests and 12 times tables at school.

You then have lots of so called lockdown merchants who want no restrictions to ease on May 05th, this cohurt are as bad if not worse. Many of them are as well off on €350/week as they were before the lockdown so for them life is good. Sitting at home eating frozen pizza and wedges playing the PS and watching IP TV all day is actually lovely for them. there are fook all complaints from the wasters in society, we are usually deafened from listening to their woes.

Most folk, 95% are in between those two extremes that I've quite narrow mindedly caricatured :pac:

Restrictions will ease on 05th May. No one knows what will ease etc as yet but it's quite likely the plan will actually be for the public good. God forbid anyone actually thinks that the folk in government could actually do anything remotely positive. We should has a nation be happy enough that we don't have 150,000 cases of this thing and 7000 deaths with an over ran health service, and I think as a nation we probably are.

Mic 1972

timmy_mallet wrote: »

So is demanding a lockdown, like many have done here, but dressed up as concern for other people, when it's really themsleves they're worried about.

Lockdown is for the benefit of everyone's health, Ireland is very much still at the peak as shown by the daily increase of new cases

timmy_mallet

road_high wrote: »

It’s like an Orwellian nightmare even discussing things with some people.
You’d imagine if the state legislated them to jump off a cliff they’d be first over the edge

Don't know about that... But they'd definitely let the WHO and Gardai come and take their neighbours children out of the house and quarantine them.

Mic 1972

road_high wrote: »

When it’s obvious the “law” is stupid then it should be dropped.
Bad law leads to this kind of nonsense we are stuck in now.
We have a very poor record in nursing homes- the majority of our problem. This makes damn all difference to that.

it is not up to you to decide the law, what you are proposing is the definition of antisocial behaviour

timmy_mallet

Mic 1972 wrote: »

People who follow the restrictions are decent citizens, those who dont are violating the rules. Nothing decent about it, just selfishness

So is demanding a lockdown, like many have done here, but dressed up as concern for other people, when it's really themsleves they're worried about.

Mic 1972

road_high wrote: »

It’s like an Orwellian nightmare even discussing things with some people.
You’d imagine if the state legislated them to jump off a cliff they’d be first over the edge

another stupid comment, you are doing great today

road_high

Mic 1972 wrote: »

People who follow the restrictions are decent citizens, those who dont are violating the rules. Nothing decent about it, just selfishness

It’s like an Orwellian nightmare even discussing things with some people.
You’d imagine if the state legislated them to jump off a cliff they’d be first over the edge

seamus

Breezin wrote: »

but the piece makes reasonable arguments and asks important questions that no one seems prepared to answer.

No it doesn't. It makes wild invalid comparisons and asks questions that can only be answered with a crystal ball.

road_high

Mic 1972 wrote: »

What a stupid comment, the law should be respected

Other countries set an example of how to handle restrictions and their numbers are definitely looking better than ours

When it’s obvious the “law” is stupid then it should be dropped.
Bad law leads to this kind of nonsense we are stuck in now.
We have a very poor record in nursing homes- the majority of our problem. This makes damn all difference to that.

Mic 1972

road_high wrote: »

And I would agree. But this isn’t anti social behavior. It’s decent citizens trying to earn a living and live their lives. Ditch the non sensical restrictions and let people live

People who follow the restrictions are decent citizens, those who dont are violating the rules. Nothing decent about it, just selfishness

Mic 1972

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Unless all these people are essential workers or are on essential journeys they are violating the current restrictions and could and should be prosecuted. Simple as that.

They are indeed, sad how Irish people didn't give a damn about the restrictions, they were put in place for our health. We look like idiots compared to the rest of the world ...except Sweden of course

timmy_mallet

Ulysses Gaze wrote: »

And economists would have no dog in this fight either? No biases at all?

Their job doesn't rely on economic growth.

Unlike the public health officials who are performance reviewed on public health resource management.

road_high

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Interesting suggestion from you. Many who have been on the receiving end of anti social behaviour would be of the opinion that this would be a very good idea.

And I would agree. But this isn’t anti social behavior. It’s decent citizens trying to earn a living and live their lives. Ditch the non sensical restrictions and let people live

Nermal

Epidemic models are a failure:
https://issuesinsights.com/2020/04/18/after-repeated-failures-its-time-to-permanently-dump-epidemic-models/

Mic 1972

road_high wrote: »

Lol . They probabaly are. When are you Lockdowners going to let it go?
Maybe bring back public floggings and stocks for these "violations" too. I can picture someone like you first in line.

What a stupid comment, the law should be respected

Other countries set an example of how to handle restrictions and their numbers are definitely looking better than ours

Breezin

Augeo wrote: »

"The World Health Organisation initially suggested that the case-fatality rate – the proportion of people diagnosed with the disease who die – would be 3.4 per cent. This is a very high number which would have caused a huge number of deaths. But as we have had gradually more and more data coming in, those percentages have been falling"

As of 22 April, the Department of Health has confirmed 16,671 cases and 769 deaths, 4.6%.

Are people actually reading this?

In the absence of mass testing in the community, that percentage is meaningless.

trapp

Pitch n Putt wrote: »

Yes the lockdown is effectively over lots more people on the move and businesses opening up.

This will be accelerated now after yesterday’s boo boo by Minister Harris.

Who’s going to continue to take advice from the government when they don’t even have their facts right after two months of this.?

NPHET are running the country in reality and that’s a bad sign as conservatism on any lifting of restrictions is their approach

How can NPHET have the power to effectively implement a policy to pay frontline workers partners to stay at home with full pay to mind their children??

The tail is wagging the dog now. Yes the government needs advice on the situation and probably someone to blame when there’s questions to be answered but at the end of the day governments should govern

Fully agree with this.

They are I'm certain excellent in their own field and by and large doing their job as well as they can in the middle of such an unprecedented crisis.

However Tony Holohan, Cillian de Gascun, Prof Nolan etc are not elected leaders, they are medical professionals and academics who should be advising the government not running it.

I don't think these press conferences every day should be happening either without any political input.

Supercell

Anecdotal I know, when the lockdown started i could go out for a jog in my local park without having too many detours due to social distancing. Last week I decided to avoid it altogether as the place is full of people picnicing, kids on bikes everywhere etc so I changed to using the paths around the local area, was ok, very few people encountered and with a careful glance I could run on the road to get around them.

This week that's gone too, the roads are far more busy, there are far more people on the paths walking around, its not safe or practical to run out on the road every 100 meters or so anymore no matter how cautious.

I've taken to early morning runs, but the way things are headed those are going to have to get earlier and earlier. Not anywhere near normal volumes of people out and about but definitely to my mind far more than last week, which had more than the week before and so on.
I don't see how social distancing is going to work for everyone in urban areas (not just the joggers!) once the restrictions are lifted.
My wife tells me that in China that face masks are obligatory everywhere in public but there is no social distancing for this reason, they seem to have it under control now.

[Deleted User]

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Everyone needs to read that.

"The World Health Organisation initially suggested that the case-fatality rate – the proportion of people diagnosed with the disease who die – would be 3.4 per cent. This is a very high number which would have caused a huge number of deaths. But as we have had gradually more and more data coming in, those percentages have been falling"

As of 22 April, the Department of Health has confirmed 16,671 cases and 769 deaths, 4.6%.

Are people actually reading this?

Cork Boy 53

road_high wrote: »

Lol . They probabaly are. When are you Lockdowners going to let it go?
Maybe bring back public floggings and stocks for these "violations" too. I can picture someone like you first in line.

Interesting suggestion from you. Many who have been on the receiving end of anti social behaviour would be of the opinion that this would be a very good idea.

growleaves

Merry Prankster wrote: »

The posters did not 'pick them from the air.' They based them on medical calculations based upon current understanding and data. It's a novel pathogen and a quickly evolving story. However, you seem to have pulled your own prediction from the air. Is yours based upon medical predictions, or is it shaped more by ideology?

The medical experts who made the original predictions which justified the lockdown - the Fauci-Birx team in the US and the Ferguson-Imperial team - have revised their estimates downward by many multiples.

They have walked back their predictions to the range of tens of thousands.

The boards commenters who gave out death rates which felt right to them - the highest I saw was 21% of the human race perishing, that's 1.6 billion people - were told by many others that initial death rates coming out of Lombardy were not normative for the whole world (or even for Italy). I posted links to epidemiologists who explained this in detail (which is all I can do, having no medical background myself) and received personal abuse.

Dr. Bre

road_high wrote: »

Lol . They probabaly are. When are you Lockdowners going to let it go?
Maybe bring back public floggings and stocks for these "violations" too. I can picture someone like you first in line.

Bring back the guillotine

facehugger99

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Unless all these people are essential workers or are on essential journeys they are violating the current restrictions and could and should be prosecuted. Simple as that.

Smart employers can fit their business into the 'essential' definition with a bit of creativity.

Employers should be providing their staff with a simple letter. Any checkpoint I've come across, the Guards have never looked at my letter, just waved me through when I mentioned I had one.

road_high

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

Unless all these people are essential workers or are on essential journeys they are violating the current regulations and could and should be prosecuted. Simple as that.

Lol

. They probabaly are. When are you Lockdowners going to let it go?
Maybe bring back public floggings and stocks for these "violations" too. I can picture someone like you first in line.

Cork Boy 53

road_high wrote: »

Of course. Vast majority don’t want to be sitting at home doing nothing. Great to hear people are getting back to normal and using common sense. It’s a shame our state and authorities wouldn’t get onto the same page

Unless all these people are essential workers or are on essential journeys they are violating the current restrictions and could and should be prosecuted. Simple as that.

facehugger99

Ulysses Gaze wrote: »

And economists would have no dog in this fight either? No biases at all?

Of course they have.

The Govt should be asking multiple experts for advice and plotting the best course of action.

The problem now is we're asking one particular group for advice

Ask a medical person what we need to do to eliminate the spread of the virus and they'll tell you to lockdown indefinitely.

They aren't being asked what the economy and society will look like as a result of this - that's not the question they have been asked or are qualified to answer.

The question has be be broader than 'how do we stop it?'

The question should be 'what measures will give us the least-worst outcome for the most people?'

We need more than medical professionals to answer that question.

road_high

GazzaL wrote: »

The daily increase of cars and vans on the road continues.

Of course. Vast majority don’t want to be sitting at home doing nothing. Great to hear people are getting back to normal and using common sense. It’s a shame our state and authorities wouldn’t get onto the same page

Ulysses Gaze

facehugger99 wrote: »

We are asking the wrong people the wrong questions.

It's like asking a legal person if there is a potential legal issue - the answer is always 'yes'.

These 'experts' are inherently biased in their approach, everything is being viewed through a prism of reducing infection - who cares if society collapses due to measures implemented.

And economists would have no dog in this fight either? No biases at all?

ongarite

My place of work is a lot busier this week than last 3 weeks.
Car park is nearly full last few days with the trades back on site supporting and working as required.