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Relaxation of restrictions

Red Alert

Simon Harris curiously made a comment that there was a limit to how long people could put up with extreme level of restrictions as we currently have. Already we’re seeing in Italy that people are starting to get restless. So two big questions:

1) on Easter Sunday, do you think there will be further restrictions, no change with just an extension or some relaxation?

2) what will be the first thing rolled back?

My own guess would be: extension for at least 1 week. Then to allow some businesses like DIY shops to reopen, perhaps allow gatherings of 2/3 people, maybe a token increase on 2km.

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[Deleted User]

It was initially feared we could see 15,000 cases by end of March..... We've just gotten to that now.
Easing of restrictions will happen.... But it will be an easing. Loads of stuff won't he going on as normal in summer 2020 unfortunately.

A week or two of a significant proportion of the population not adhereing to guidelines when some restrictions are eased will likely see the health system beyond capacity.

Something like a third of cases are healthcare workers, that's reason enough why we need continued vigilance and the primary focus being on controlling the spread..... An economy won't function for long without a staffed healthservice...... I don't know what proportion of health workers have contracted the virus but it's likely to be a significant enough proportion. As that number rises and they are back at work the healthservvice itself is less vulnerable.

Some easing of restrictions can have huge positive effects on the economy coupled with a reduced transmit rate it's a good starting point for May 05th.

I've mentioned it before, essential workplaces are implementing controls successfully, there's plenty non essential ones that can also, but it will require planning, effort and buy in from staff & customers.

JoeA3

Thankfully the constant negativity on this forum from a select few isn’t reflective of real life out there, not in my experience in my community anyway.

From what I can see around me, people are generally in good spirits and are optimistic that this situation is for the very short term. They are getting out and about, getting on with life as best they can, particularly in the recent good weather, and good weather always helps. They’re exercising, having chats with neighbours - while generally standing well apart - i.e. using their own common bloody sense and not taking the measuring tapes out.

If there are those out there that are struck with fear over all this, that’s fine, lock yourself away. Just let the rest of us get on with it.

CtevenSrowder

KiKi III wrote: »

We wouldn't have to deal with them all at once, but even if they were spread over 5-10 years those numbers would overwhelm our health system.

Can you outline how you think it would be workable?

What is your 3,000,000 figure of? People that would get infected or those that would require hospitalisation or what?

~80% of people do not need hospitalisation.

JoeExotic81

CtevenSrowder wrote: »

His point is that you posted what you did in such a way that it gives the impression that a significant % of people will be left with damaged heart or lungs after recovering from Covid. There is no evidence this is the case. This is why he is saying you engaged in hyperbole.

Don't bother, seems a severe communication malfunction with that one.

KiKi III

JoeExotic81 wrote: »

Other posters have already directly quoted your linked articles as contracting your point.

"There is also evidence that if you get it and recover you can be left with long-term lung and heart damage."

You see no problem with your statement? You don't see how it could come across sensationalist?

I feel sorry for you Kiki. Must be tough living with such a fear laden anxiety.

Ah, so you're one of those posters that demands links and then refuses to read them when provided.

Cool.

As you said yourself, bye felicia.

lord quackinton

CtevenSrowder wrote: »

What do you mean "kept from us"? They only know the peak has happened after it's happened.

That is what you take from that link
Take your head out of the sand
People were freaking out as deaths raised everyday and now it turns out these deaths were past events
That is one big omission And makes the daily death rate announcements pointless now

easypazz

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

We're in agreement I think.

Lifting all restrictions overnight would be lunacy, but I think things like more retail opening with social distancing being in place, limiting mass gatherings (gigs and such still off) and in confined spaces (pubs staying closed) make sense.

But travel restrictions domestically anyway need to be lifted and workplaces need to assess the measures they can take to get people back and minimise risks.
Those who are at greater risk will need to take responsibility and continue to protect themselves.

The Government certainly cannot come out and extend again if that RTE report is accurate

No point keeping pubs closed if dart, buses, trains, creches, playgrounds, shopping centres etc. are packed every day.

Some time in June for pubs, if numbers keep falling.

KiKi III

JoeA3 wrote: »

Thankfully the constant negativity on this forum from a select few isn’t reflective of real life out there, not in my experience in my community anyway.

From what I can see around me, people are generally in good spirits and are optimistic that this situation is for the very short term. They are getting out and about, getting on with life as best they can, particularly in the recent good weather, and good weather always helps. They’re exercising, having chats with neighbours - while generally standing well apart - i.e. using their own common bloody sense and not taking the measuring tapes out.

If there are those out there that are struck with fear over all this, that’s fine, lock yourself away. Just let the rest of us get on with it.

This is it. I don't know where boardsies are hidden in real life because these threads don't reflect how people are getting on in the real world at all it seems.

Most people have adapted as best they can and are looking forward to May 5!

JoeExotic81

KiKi III wrote: »

Ah, so you're one of those posters that demands links and then refuses to read them when provided.

Cool.

As you said yourself, bye felicia.

I read them, didn't back up your point. It literally backed up mine. Long term issues only stem from ICU cases.

"There is also evidence that if you get it and recover you can be left with long-term lung and heart damage."

Now try and fit that into your nonsense hyperbolic misery. Doesn't seem so scary eh.

Stheno

KiKi III wrote: »

Yes, quick action to expand the number of ICU beds we have available combined with the lockdown have thankfully avoided that situation so far, and it looks like we are not going to find ourselves in the desperate situation Italy and Spain did.

Although this only happened because we were quick to implement the lockdown, some will continue to believe it's evidence that the lockdown was never needed to begin with.

Eh before this happened we had 250 ICU bed available

At no point have we needed that number for COVID

We can surge up to 800 if needed and currently have 2000 beds spare in our acute hospitals

Dr Tony and others have repeatedly said this week that adherence to restrictions has prevented the need for additional capacity to be used not that we hit capacity it's been repeatedly stressed we have not had to use the spare capacity

If they successfully expand the testing, that and the spare capacity are key criteria for.easing restrictions

reg114

I can see the gov trying to assuage peoples' concerns and ease their frustration by making some concessions regarding the lockdown, in sofaras they will remove the 2km limit This will give people more freedom to move around, I also think businesses will be given a choice to open based on their own preference. I dont see pubs, restaurants, cinemas or anywhere with the potential gatherings being allowed to open till June at the earliest. I also think the 2km limit will only apply at weekends to prevent a glenadough situation on a sunny Saturday for example.

If and its a big if, the rate of infection stays below 1 then you may see further removal of constraints but the gov needs to be super cautious were it wasnt at the end of February. The chances of a reimposition of a lockdown are quite high, so people still need to be cautious beyond the 5th of May.

CtevenSrowder

lord quackinton wrote: »

That is what you take from that link
Take your head out of the sand
People were freaking out as deaths raised everyday and now it turns out these deaths were past events
That is one big omission And makes the daily death rate announcements pointless now

He is releasing figures that more accurately show how many people died on a paticular day as:

the number of deaths notified to them on any particular day [is different] than the numbers who actually died on that day.

I don't see what exactly was held back from us. You seem to think there is some deliberate attempt to cover something up or some kind of conspiracy. There isn't.

_Kaiser_

easypazz wrote: »

No point keeping pubs closed if dart, buses, trains, creches, playgrounds, shopping centres etc. are packed every day.

Some time in June for pubs, if numbers keep falling.

Again I would hope that people will use common sense and public transport also adapts a bit to facilitate distancing. Working from home should continue to be a thing where its possible to do so. Social distancing should continue in supermarkets and be expanded as others reopen

I'm not saying we just go back to business as usual overnight

KiKi III

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

We're in agreement I think.

Lifting all restrictions overnight would be lunacy, but I think things like more retail opening with social distancing being in place, limiting mass gatherings (gigs and such still off) and in confined spaces (pubs staying closed) make sense.

But travel restrictions domestically anyway need to be lifted and workplaces need to assess the measures they can take to get people back and minimise risks.
Those who are at greater risk will need to take responsibility and continue to protect themselves.

The Government certainly cannot come out and extend again if that RTE report is accurate

Absolutely. Phased lifting of restrictions from May 5. Social distancing to stay in place as far as is practicable. Public transport with masks only, and hand sanitizer available at all times.

Possibly staggered hours for businesses where that's possible to reduce peak time rushes.

Pubs opening just isn't going to happen this summer and people need to accept that. A summer without the pub won't kill you.

[Deleted User]

easypazz wrote: »

No point keeping pubs closed if dart, buses, trains, creches, playgrounds, shopping centres etc. are packed every day.

Some time in June for pubs, if numbers keep falling.

It's this kind of attitude, if widespread will ruin the effort so far.

The numbers will foooking rise again fairly lively ..

khalessi

lord quackinton wrote: »

That is what you take from that link
Take your head out of the sand
People were freaking out as deaths raised everyday and now it turns out these deaths were past events
That is one big omission And makes the daily death rate announcements pointless now

They have said in the q&a that some of the deaths were historical and they were onto the funeral directors and med docs to speed up death certs so they can have a more accurae picture. It was also said that we would peak in April or May depending on the public cooperation. So it looks like it has peaked, fingers crossed. The R0 is below 1 which has come down so that would indicate to anyone following that the spread is decreasing and therefor deaths will come down.

The next hopeful step is that they manage the reopening carefully, as the second wave historically did more damage in Spanish Flu then the first wave, so they should act accordingly as the minute restrictions are relaxed people will go a bit crazy and it will create a surge.

How they manage it I don't know but hopefully in a gentle manner

Professor Moriarty

Augeo wrote: »

It's this kind of attitude, if widespread will ruin the effort so far.

The numbers will foooking rise again fairly lively ..

The gubbermint are ruining the People's lives. I'm off now to chop down a 5G mast.

KiKi III

Stheno wrote: »

Eh before this happened we had 250 ICU bed available

At no point have we needed that number for COVID

We can surge up to 800 if needed and currently have 2000 beds spare in our acute hospitals

Dr Tony and others have repeatedly said this week that adherence to restrictions has prevented the need for additional capacity to be used not that we hit capacity it's been repeatedly stressed we have not had to use the spare capacity

If they successfully expand the testing, that and the spare capacity are key criteria for.easing restrictions

Yeah, because we implemented the lockdown numbers needing ICU have been kept to manageable levels. That was my point.

The combination of both has meant that even if we were to experience a spike in ICU beds now (thankfully it's looking like we won't) we created the capacity to deal with it.

So we haven't had to triage in the same brutal ways Italy and Spain has. Despite having fewer ICU beds per capita at the beginning of the crisis.

niallo27

lord quackinton wrote: »

That is what you take from that link
Take your head out of the sand
People were freaking out as deaths raised everyday and now it turns out these deaths were past events
That is one big omission And makes the daily death rate announcements pointless now

It really was a what the **** are they doing moment for me, along with that bull**** model they use that has 16 million infected by next tuesday, I am starting to lose all trust in what they are doing.

Dodge

Dodge wrote: »

Pop in and out of this thread every couple of days.

Usually the same people arguing for opening things up versus the same people arguing for a continuation

Funny really seeing everyone so steadfast in their opinions and neither side has moved an inch from that position in the last two weeks

5 days later. Nearly 200 pages on here later. Same arguments. Mostly same people. Funny seeing some say ‘I’m starting to think’ when they posted the same thoughts a week ago.

Haven’t read them all obviously. Presume they’re some good stuff too...

I still maintain *everybody* wants things opened up ASAP but the argument is over that ‘as possible’ bit

And I think 90% of people are in the middle of the extremists on either side here. I’m just thankful no one who posts here is in a position of power

reg114

Schools and creches should not reopen until September, yes it will put a strain on families but the that inconvenience is totally outweighed by the multiplier effect of interactions that hundreds of thousands of students moving freely in society will cause. Asymptomatic transmission seems to be paramount to Covid19's contagion, children at the best of times as any parent will attest to are vectors for all sorts of infections so its crucial they dont mix in schools, on public transport in shops etc until we understand more about the trajectory of this disease in this country.

robbiezero

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Again I would hope that people will use common sense and public transport also adapts a bit to facilitate distancing. Working from home should continue to be a thing where its possible to do so. Social distancing should continue in supermarkets and be expanded as others reopen

I'm not saying we just go back to business as usual overnight

Id imagine the vast majorith of IT workers and some other sectors could continue working from home to some extent which would ease the pressure fairly significantly.

easypazz

Augeo wrote: »

It's this kind of attitude, if widespread will ruin the effort so far.

The numbers will foooking rise again fairly lively ..

It is inevitable that shopping centres will be packed every wet sunday once shops there reopen.

And a second lockdown will be a big ask.

Cork Boy 53

easypazz wrote: »

No point keeping pubs closed if dart, buses, trains, creches, playgrounds, shopping centres etc. are packed every day.

Some time in June for pubs, if numbers keep falling.

This article suggests otherwise.

http://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/coronavirus/building-sites-to-reopen-but-pubs-may-stay-shut-until-2021/ar-BB12Piap?li=BBr5KbJ

CtevenSrowder

niallo27 wrote: »

It really was a what the **** are they doing moment for me, along with that bull**** model they use that has 16 million infected by next tuesday, I am starting to lose all trust in what they are doing.

Why exactly? It's stated in the article that it's a reporting issue.

He said that it can take a few days or even longer before any particular death is actually notified to them.

I really fail to see what the big issue is.

easypazz

Dodge wrote: »

5 days later. Nearly 200 pages on here later. Same arguments. Mostly same people. Funny seeing some say ‘I’m starting to think’ when they posted the same thoughts a week ago.

Haven’t read them all obviously. Presume they’re some good stuff too...

I still maintain *everybody* wants things opened up ASAP but the argument is over that ‘as possible’ bit

And I think 90% of people are in the middle of the extremists on either side here. I’m just thankful no one who posts here is in a position of power

Why do you only talk to yourself?

KiKi III

robbiezero wrote: »

Id imagine the vast majorith of IT workers and some other sectors could continue working from home to some extent which would ease the pressure fairly significantly.

I've had bosses in the past that were very reluctant to allow working from home occasionally even though it was possible.

It will be harder for them to make their case now that it's not workable.

LiquidZeb

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

This article suggests otherwise.

http://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/coronavirus/building-sites-to-reopen-but-pubs-may-stay-shut-until-2021/ar-BB12Piap?li=BBr5KbJ

I think that's fair enough. How the feck would you maintain social distancing with a bunch of sloppy, handsy drunks in a small pub or club? Once the majority of people are back to work the owners of those establishments should receive a specialized form of relief.

lord quackinton

CtevenSrowder wrote: »

He is releasing figures that more accurately show how many people died on a paticular day as:

I don't see what exactly was held back from us. You seem to think there is some deliberate attempt to cover something up or some kind of conspiracy. There isn't.

There was
The government and the HSE continually stated
the peak was not here
Could be end of April
No distinction between historical and previous days
They knew the peak was gone but lied so people would not question this lockdown bull****

Game over, the lockdown is pointless
We are now ruining our economy and society for past events

Time to let the adults take charge now
Back to work and back to school Monday should be the rally call
I am sick of the public sector cabals running this country

To normal people on here I beg please email your local TDS and councillors
We need to stop this bull **** now

easypazz

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

This article suggests otherwise.

http://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/coronavirus/building-sites-to-reopen-but-pubs-may-stay-shut-until-2021/ar-BB12Piap?li=BBr5KbJ

You obviously missed the below paragraph

Some pubs will open for a few hours in the evening, with only those with outdoor seating areas allowed to open in the first wave of reopenings.