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Euro 2016 qualification

tolosenc

I know it's a ways away, given that WC2014 qualification only started the other day, but there have been some interesting developments that I'd like to hear other people's opinions on.

As we all know by now, there will be 24 teams at the next Euros (for better or worse), so 23 qualifiers plus hosts France. While qualification could have continued as is, it looks like Platini wants to change it up - at least according to my mate in Switzerland's account of this weekend's paper over there.

What's being discussed, apparently, is 4 pots rather than 6 for seeding. Pot 1 being 1-12, 2 being 13-24, 3 being 25-36, and then pot 4 containing the other 16 teams, divided as follows: Pot 4A - 37-40, Pot 4B - 41-44, Pot 4C - 45-48 and Pot 4D as 49-52.

Teams in Pot 4A will be safe, and teams from the other three will be drawn into 4 groups of 3, to be played out over 1 week (possibly in 1 host country per group), with the top 2 making the main draw.

From there, it'll be 12 groups of 4, the winners, and best 11 runners up qualifying directly for the finals.

However, Platini is apparantly also keen on the other teams playing a home and away friendly series against another team from their pot while the minnows battle it out, with the results of this initial stage being CARRIED INTO THE GROUP!!!.

It's a little bit daft in my opinion, especially the last bit. Current scenario is grand, but I do like the idea of the minnows playing off to give us even numbers in the groups. Playing teams of their own standard will give them realistic goals to acheive. I feel a team like Andorra is screwed by the current set up, as they are probably better than a handful of countries from the Carribean, Asia and Oceania, but as they only ever play teams in Europe that are streets ahead, they never pick up world ranking points. A prelim may allow them to do that. I don't think they'd get through, but who knows?

Given current rankings, Ireland would be pot 1. Worst draw would be: Ukraine, Armenia, Bulgaria. Best would be (assuming teams 49-52 are eliminated): Israel, Norn Iron and Luxembourg. We'd be hoping to play Greence in our double-header.

It's mind boggling...

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[Deleted User]

Platini is away with the fairies

Mr.Crinklewood

My brain hurts.

Not OP's, but Platini's fault.

kitakyushu

I'd be in favour of anything that keeps the likes of San Marino out of the qualifying groups (or more precisely anything that makes them earn a spot in the group).

BTW, I don't get the bit about

However, Platini is apparantly also keen on the other teams playing a home and away friendly series against another team from their pot while the minnows battle it out, with the results of this initial stage being CARRIED INTO THE GROUP!!!.

How is it a friendly series if the results are carried into the group?

adamski8

so the minnow league is actually only going to get rid of 3 teams???? pointless then!

citytillidie

So there is 52 teams, why not have the bottom 12 play off to make it down to 46, then an open draw with those 46 teams for a two legged tie for the 23 spots, would be far less international breaks which would be good.

adamski8

citytillidie wrote: »

So there is 52 teams, why not have the bottom 12 play off to make it down to 46, then an open draw with those 46 teams for a two legged tie for the 23 spots, would be far less international breaks which would be good.

1. barely any competitive matches then resulting in lots of friendlies
2. open draw would rob us of seeing some of the best teams in the euros, its already going to be a watered down comp.
3. whats wrong with international breaks?

ArmaniJeanss

tolosenc wrote: »

From there, it'll be 12 groups of 4, the winners, and best 11 runners up qualifying directly for the finals.

Would much prefer to see 12 winners, best 10 runners up, with the 11th and 12th playing off. Always seems wrong to me to have a system (as in the WC qualifying) that eliminates a team for being a slightly poorer runner-up than other runners up, without taking into account the difficulty/shape of the group. With only 6 gamedays per group, theres no problem slotting in a playoff.

tolosenc wrote: »

However, Platini is apparantly also keen on the other teams playing a home and away friendly series against another team from their pot while the minnows battle it out, with the results of this initial stage being CARRIED INTO THE GROUP!!!.

I'm not sure I understand this at all

They aren't friendlies if they 'count', if they are friendlies then you'll pick opposition outside your group.

wonderfullife

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Would much prefer to see 12 winners, best 10 runners up, with the 11th and 12th playing off. Always seems wrong to me to have a system (as in the WC qualifying) that eliminates a team for being a slightly poorer runner-up than other runners up, without taking into account the difficulty/shape of the group. With only 6 gamedays per group, theres no problem slotting in a playoff.

I'm not sure I understand this at all They aren't friendlies if they 'count', if they are friendlies then you'll pick opposition outside your group.

Home and Away friendly from POT not GROUP.....

So let's say our Group was:

Ireland, Ukraine, Armenia, Bulgaria

Our pot might have been Ireland, Switzerland, Bosnia, Slovenia.

So we'd play 1 of them home and away.

I think that's what it means.....still nuts though.

Eathrin

I expect Ireland will drop some significant amount in the rankings by the time the WC qualifiers are done.

[Deleted User]

wonderfullife wrote: »

Home and Away friendly from POT not GROUP.....

So let's say our Group was:

Ireland, Ukraine, Armenia, Bulgaria

Our pot might have been Ireland, Switzerland, Bosnia, Slovenia.

So we'd play 1 of them home and away.

I think that's what it means.....still nuts though.

Huh?

kitakyushu

Eathrin wrote: »

I expect Ireland will drop some significant amount in the rankings by the time the WC qualifiers are done.

Probably for the best anyway. We seem to blow it as first seeds (Euro 2004 comes to mind). By comparison iirc four of our five qualifications to date were as 3rd seed or lower.

Augmerson

No idea what's going on.

citytillidie

adamski8 wrote: »

1. barely any competitive matches then resulting in lots of friendlies
2. open draw would rob us of seeing some of the best teams in the euros, its already going to be a watered down comp.
3. whats wrong with international breaks?

Just going on the format that the African cup of nations is doing

wonderfullife

rarnes1 wrote: »

Huh?

However, Platini is apparantly also keen on the other teams playing a home and away friendly series against another team from their pot while the minnows battle it out, with the results of this initial stage being CARRIED INTO THE GROUP!!!.

Ha yeah i know, .... my interpretation of OP is that we end up in a group of 4. Play out that group. Then play a home and away match against someone in our original pot. So i guess if we were in a pot of 12 it would mean playing one of 11 other teams of a similar ability. I don't know if that what it means just my reading of the OP.

[Deleted User]

wonderfullife wrote: »

Ha yeah i know, .... my interpretation of OP is that we end up in a group of 4. Play out that group. Then play a home and away match against someone in our original pot. So i guess if we were in a pot of 12 it would mean playing one of 11 other teams of a similar ability. I don't know if that what it means just my reading of the OP.

I'm confused anyway!

kitakyushu

It almost sounds like they're trying to create a sort of "American" style system whereby you're in a clearly defined group and qualify based on position in that group, but your games are not limited just to teams in that group?

Is that what you mean by the two 'friendlies' against teams from the same pot?

ArmaniJeanss

citytillidie wrote: »

Just going on the format that the African cup of nations is doing

Africa have 3 qualifications in a 4 year cycle (with the ACN being every 2 years, and this time being on in both 2012 and 2013), so they have to reduce/merge the amount of games.

For UEFA to do a simple one-off tie for qualification for the Euros would be madness, not least from a financial viewpoint. Like you'd probably bankrupt about a dozen national FAs if they only had 1 competitive home game in 24 months.

Father Damo

I have had a few beers. And re read the OP three times- it might as well be written in Arabic

:pac:

Was looking it up on wikipedia the other night but could find no mention of seeding the teams who qualify, I would imagine UEFA will be taking some sort of action to prevent too many groups of death in the opening 24. Imagine

Group A
Germany
Holland
Spain
Portugal

Group B
England
France
Italy
Croatia

Group C
Ireland
Latvia
Belarus
Lithuania

Not sure the advertising money would be big for this sort of outcome.:pac: And given the luck Trap has had the above would be our group- and we would probably still barely stumble through to the 16.

The Radiator

I don't think even Platini himself could possibly understand that qualification process

noodler

I haven't looked at the data going back 20 years but it seems to me that the minnows who never have a chance of qualifying have actually improved in the last decade or so.

Obviously, I don't mean improved in terms of qualifying but the cricket scores seem to be less common than they used to be.

Wouldn't such 'no-hopers' get even worse if they aren't playing European teams on a regular basis (regardless of what the rankings say) or is that only a secondary concern?

gnfnrhead

My head hurts

52 teams, have the eight lowest ranked teams play off to cut that down to 48 (eliminating four). 12 groups of 4 with first and second qualifying. Simple. No need to make it so overly complicated.

wonderfullife

noodler wrote: »

I haven't looked at the data going back 20 years but it seems to me that the minnows who never have a chance of qualifying have actually improved in the last decade or so.

Obviously, I don't mean improved in terms of qualifying but the cricket scores seem to be less common than they used to be.

Wouldn't such 'no-hopers' get even worse if they aren't playing European teams on a regular basis (regardless of what the rankings say) or is that only a secondary concern?

Just a cursory look at Friday can help back up your point. Faroes were holding Germany for long periods, Luxembourg only lost 2-1 to portugal, Kazaks v us........then a lot of the whipping boys of the early to mid 90s, the likes of Albania, Latvia etc are much more competitive nowadays.

Top level competition are improving the minnows, the gaps are closing but those gaps will always remain, largely due to finances and population sizes, the likes of Albania, Latvia, Andorra, Moldova etc can never close the gap on France, Germany, England etc.

tolosenc

Yes! I've confused everyone!

It's so daft that I don't think I could have explained it any better.

SantryRed

Have you got a link?

Dont be at yourself

It's all explained here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4SuR8hTGMI

SantryRed

Dont be at yourself wrote: »

It's all explained here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k4SuR8hTGMI

I mean a link that they're actually talking about it.

adamski8

gnfnrhead wrote: »

My head hurts

52 teams, have the eight lowest ranked teams play off to cut that down to 48 (eliminating four). 12 groups of 4 with first and second qualifying. Simple. No need to make it so overly complicated.

you forgot france are already qualified as hosts, only 23 spots

gnfnrhead

adamski8 wrote: »

you forgot france are already qualified as hosts, only 23 spots

The two lowest runners up could have a play off.

Hosts + 12 group winners + 10 best runner ups + Play off winner.

kitakyushu

Sorry for bumping this but I was just thinking about it now. Tolosence, have you any source for the suggestion you described in your OP?

Also are you sure you took it up right about the extra games vs the team in your pot being just friendlies rather competitive?

I ask I was just checking NFL scheduling system and (besides being some of the most convoluted scheduling system you could imagine) they also do a thing whereby you play added games against teams who are considered your "equals". The reason for being you end up playing an equal number of games against 1st 2nd 3rd and 4th rated teams over a 16 game season.

Compare that to the standard football qualifying system whereby if you can maintain your 1st seeding you would theoretically never have to play a qualifier vs another first seed team ever. Somone like Italy or England for example have a much easier 10 game schedule than San Marino as a result.

token101

Jesus it's not all that bad the way it is. Home and away friendlies from the pot? Eh?

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