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TS / Hurricane Kirk

tomcosgrave

Here's the next system.
At present this is predicted to become an extra-tropical hurricane and Ireland is on the map already. I wonder if this will turn out to be an issue?

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Sponge Bob

GFS does not quite seem to have a handle on this one yet. I'd say Tuesday...if ever.

Sunday

Monday

Tuesday ( skirts Donegal and Scotland Monday night)

gfs-0-150.png?6

Sponge Bob

Kirk has dropped around 10mb to 997mb since yesterday and strengthened.

It may be a Hurricane later tonight. It probably won't get a plane inspection though. Looks more like we will get a visit, Tuesday next. 3 GFS snapshots follow.

Sunday.

gfs-0-72.png?6

Monday

gfs-0-96.png?6

Tuesday ( sort of dissipates off Kerry and the rain band then crosses Ireland on Tuesday, hmmm

)

maquiladora

$al112012.png$

howlinwolf

i know its early days yet but do you think this system will stay on course for us and will the warmer settled weather were expecting for the next few days help keep the hurricane/ post tropical storm strong when it reaches us next week? hope it stays on course will make next week interesting:)

Sponge Bob

It'll be a soggy rather than a windy mess if it does come....just like yesterday

maquiladora

howlinwolf wrote: »

i know its early days yet but do you think this system will stay on course for us and will the warmer settled weather were expecting for the next few days help keep the hurricane/ post tropical storm strong when it reaches us next week? hope it stays on course will make next week interesting:)

Not likely Kirk will be anything too interesting by the time the remains get to these neck of the woods.

We will have another tropical depression in a few hours. Season has picked up.

Sponge Bob

Kirk is a compact little fella and he will be good for 2-3 hours of rain at the speed he'll be going at on Tuesday when he visits.

Hurricane Leslie looks like a Good Un and is already well up for a carribean tour.

See this pic of the trio Isaac Kirk and Leslie.

hatrickpatrick

I love the way we get kinda excited whenever a hurricane gets near us, and then when it actually arrives we all become rapidly depressed (pun very intended) at the rain it brings :P

torrentum

Well all I can say is thank God it's not going to be a big deal when it arrives, I HATE wind events. I suspect I'm in the extreme minority here though

Assassin saphir

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Kirk is a compact little fella and he will be good for 2-3 hours of rain at the speed he'll be going at on Tuesday when he visits.

Hurricane Leslie looks like a Good Un and is already well up for a carribean tour.

See this pic of the trio Isaac Kirk and Leslie.

When is Leslie due to hit?

Im heading to the carribean at the end of next week...

maquiladora

Assassin saphir wrote: »

When is Leslie due to hit?

Im heading to the carribean at the end of next week...

Leslie is forecast to turn northwest and recurve out to sea at the moment. That can change, but thats how it looks now.

TheMilkyPirate

For anyone with android I'd recommend hurricane software, good app for tracking ts/hurricanes

Sponge Bob

The really good news is

1. Kirk IS A HURRICANE now. ( It won't be by tuesday but heck!)
2. We don't have to share Kirk with the Yanks and Cubans...we get him all to ourselves.
3. We might even get Leslie and all. Bit of a long shot right now.

$al112012.png$
$al122012.png$

M.T. Cranium

Kirk is a relatively small feature despite an intense core, and it may not survive very long after extra-tropical phase on Monday. It may in fact just become totally absorbed into a frontal band. Leslie is expected to be a larger and more powerful storm but the earliest it might arrive anywhere near Ireland is probably 10-12 days away. It may not come very close as there are some signs of a track towards Iceland.

Sponge Bob

Latest Advisory.

...HURRICANE KIRK WITH 105-MPH WINDS MOVES OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...30.1N 50.9W
ABOUT 835 MI...1345 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1470 MI...2360 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KIRK WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.9 WEST. KIRK IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TO THE
NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY. THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS KIRK OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KIRK IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TODAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ON
SATURDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

Mr Cumulonimbus

From the left, Ileana, Isaac, Kirk and Leslie at 10am.

M.T. Cranium

Latest GFS (12z) continues the theme of rapid disintegration of Kirk beyond the 20W longitude on Monday, resulting in just a glancing blow to Donegal where winds could briefly gust to 40 mph or so Monday night. High pressure builds back in rapidly once that frontal wave passes.

Leslie appears to be a much more powerful storm long-term and is now on a slow course towards Bermuda (day 7-8) and then eastern Canada (days 10-12 approx) after which model scenarios are probably of little reliability but climatology would suggest a strong recurving hurricane in that region would end up somewhere near Ireland around two weeks from today (14 Sep). Thus Leslie is probably the one to watch. Models are also suggesting a regular Atlantic trough around 10-11 Sep that could contain some of the leftover energy from Isaac although by no means the remnant of Isaac, out ahead of this window of opportunity for Leslie. Too early to say, but watch model developments for an interaction between Leslie and this earlier feature as a possible alternative to the bland looking outcomes on days 14-16 of current GFS.

I'm speculating that Leslie could become a cat-4 storm south of Bermuda in about 4-5 days as it moves slowly across a very warm area where SST values are near 31 C (from buoy data).

Sponge Bob

I can't resist it.

Kirk Out!

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KIRK ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
500 PM AST SUN SEP 02 2012

...KIRK BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...49.7N 32.6W
ABOUT 965 MI...1550 KM ENE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
ABOUT 855 MI...1375 KM NNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 47 MPH...76 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

maquiladora

You missed a rare joke from the National Hurricane Center in the second last discussion.

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112012
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 02 2012

KIRK IS NOT EXPECTED TO LIVE LONG AND PROSPER. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGES AND A 1214 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS
A CLOSED CIRCULATION BUT IT IS BECOMING ELONGATED. MAXIMUM
RELIABLE WINDS IN THE ASCAT PASS WERE AROUND 45 KT SO THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS HELD AT THAT VALUE. KIRK WILL LIKELY BECOME
POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY OR DISSIPATE JUST BEFORE IT MERGES WITH A
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 200 N MI TO ITS WEST.

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT KIRK HAS
BEEN MOVING A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH THE
LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BEING A VERY FAST 035/32. AN EVEN
FASTER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST UNTIL THE CYCLONE BECOMES
ABSORBED BY THE FRONT TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.

THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE MODIFIED BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT
PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 46.2N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 51.1N 30.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

NNNN

M.T. Cranium

Beam me up, Scotland.

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