sweet dreams are made of these who are we to disagree travel the world and the seven

Supercell · 21-01-2006 6:38pm #1

Hmm, I really hope the gfs is borked!!

21-01-2006 6:39pm

A wet and windy start to february while we watch the snow in Eastern England on Sky news?

ninebeanrows · 21-01-2006 6:52pm

An good UKMETin my opinion keeping things blocked with a sever cold pool
pushing our way.

ukmtc2.cgi?time=2006012112&field=850mb+Virtual+Temperature&hour=144hr

ukmtc2.cgi?time=2006012112&field=850mb+Virtual+Temperature&hour=144hr

21-01-2006 6:59pm

I'm not bothering with the models untill next week so carry on folks.
I'll comment further on Tuesday.

Somethings coming and I know its coming but I dont know at this stage will it deliver here-I dont have enough information other than a trend.

All I know is that if the air out East advects west properly then we are in business.

However, I keep seeing pressure too high in Ireland or Atlantic invasions undercutting the cold air.
Both are possible as is a prolonged cold spell

Lets see what the end of next week brings and the T+96 charts on february 1st could be fascinating

Or they mightnt, they might show the cold another week away :rolleyes:

Its up to mother nature and best of good luck to numerical models in second guessing her.

21-01-2006 7:02pm

Weathercheck wrote:

An good UKMETin my opinion keeping things blocked with a sever cold pool
pushing our way.

That chart is in Kelvin WC

You thats good at Maths do a conversion there will ya, good chap!

It seems we are the same shade as Wales... which wouldnt be bad but it will be different tomorrow-no doubt.

ninebeanrows · 21-01-2006 7:08pm

I'll be watching but i really urge people to not give up hope there is plenty
of time for major change good or bad

21-01-2006 7:10pm

Oh I've not.
Just tired of the various evolutions.
I'd rather just wait and see what roars in and then judge for how long
Just like in yesteryear.

I suspect I'll watch countryfile and the farming forecast and mondays models.

maquiladora · 21-01-2006 8:03pm

Like Earthman said, it's still far too early to tell whats going to happen, but its also not a time to give up either!

Sure, I'll admit that deep down I have the fear that it'll just be chilly here with maybe a few winty showers on high ground while eastern/northen england gets the snow of our dreams :rolleyes: ....BUT...still, theres something special about this one, I think we all feel it:)

Either way, nobody can admit that its not going to be a very interesting and exciting few days ahead watching to see how the models react and change as the beauty/beast approaches :cool:

Scubadevils · 21-01-2006 8:24pm

I think I have given up now, certainly not going to bother waiting for the various models to come out etc.

Before I discovered that you could even do that I relied on our RTE weather forecasts which I reckon I will return to for now at least. Its bad enough in the past watching parts of the UK getting plastered with snow while we have nothing but to be on the rollercoaster with them now in the hope of something here is a hell of a lot worse - getting caught up in what various people are saying on the other UK forums to find as we get nearer to the event that its going to do pretty much nothing for us! Don't think I can take that any more, well, might have a glance when the 18z is finished just in case

Supercell · 21-01-2006 8:29pm

LOL , I think Earthman needs a few days away from the models!! , seriously !!

What will be will be, just doesnt seem likely to be anything to do with snow in the next week or so..still a long way to go..while there is a massive cold block on the near continent -anythings possible!!

lucernarian · 21-01-2006 9:03pm

Longfield wrote:

LOL , I think Earthman needs a few days away from the models!! , seriously !!

What will be will be, just doesnt seem likely to be anything to do with snow in the next week or so..still a long way to go..while there is a massive cold block on the near continent -anythings possible!!

I think we all need a break from the models!! Damn charts always predict warm westerlies correctly but rarely cold weather. Murphy's law I say.

I've decided to throw out the idea of looking at the models aswell. I looked at the +6 hr GFS chart and from what I can read of it I would say that HP from Scananavia links with the HP over us but that Icelandic LP has to go somewhere and it is likely to split the ridge between us and Siberia. That LP will be squeezed a bit by HP from both directions so I'd expect it to stall around Belarus or Lithuania.

I think that what happens from there on depends on whether there is a HP near Iceland/Greenland to support the Scandi HP. If there is, there could be north-easterly winds with the possibility of snow. If the atlantic approaches with a LP however, I would imagine the HP will head towards France, especially with current limited anticyclonic activity there.

Now I know this is a very amateurish forecast and 2 problems with it are that I didn't/can't account for everything and I can't tell how quickly it might happen. Correct me where I'm wrong in my reading of the current situation:)

Point of this is that there is little fun in having a computer do all the work for me so I may as well give it a shot.

21-01-2006 10:35pm

Longfield wrote:

LOL , I think Earthman needs a few days away from the models!! , seriously !!

Not at all
I'd just not bother wasting my time wading through them over and over again this far out from an event.
I'll look again next week.

That said,I'm off to the pub now I expect a blow by blow account here of the 18z when I come back

darkman2 · 21-01-2006 11:43pm

Wont happen though.

maquiladora · 21-01-2006 11:48pm

These models are really teasing us.....

:v: :v:

SpitfireIV · 22-01-2006 12:00am

ARGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH stop this! Cant take it anymore!!

(only messing, I can...;) ) Still though, the 18z is looking a little better than the 12z, right? But even still, I cant figure out how when one run shows the cold slipping away that ye 'call off' winter, even though ye are basing your assumptions on those charts in the first place that ye know can and will change.

maquiladora · 22-01-2006 12:42am

Waiting for WC and Longfield's reaction after the 18z

Evil Knievel is revvin' his engine up for this ramp...

Oh, and, ensemble : http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png

darkman2 · 22-01-2006 1:03am

There is support shown by the average for -5 at least. Lets hope its the beginning of something useful and not the horror runs of earlier today:cool:

Scubadevils · 22-01-2006 1:42am

I refuse to get excited. I swore I would go to bed tonight without checking!!!

Gonzo · 22-01-2006 2:27am

those charts just mean nothing when predicting cold/snowy weather unless its less than 12 hours in advance... they could swing around to 16C for tomorrow and -10 for tuesday, they make no sense wotsoever its like winning the lottery the predictions are that odd . stick to whats most reliable - look out the window if its freezing and it starts snowing then i'll believe that we mite get snow...

22-01-2006 3:17am

I hate to be disappointing but basically those charts are as valueless as the ones a few days ago showing something similar for the 28th that went all mild in the last 3 runs all mild in that they have put it a week later.
It suggests to me that in a week, what has now been predicted for the 28th will be shown for the 3rd of february ie meaningless pushing foward of a spell that never quite makes it.

I am slightly drunk tho... so my judgement could be a tad impaired.

22-01-2006 3:49am

LoL

Cold outlier or not that was one fantastic run...

Just had a look at it all.

Mamma Mia if that happened, we may stock up and I'd have to grease up the generator...

I know a lot of it is FI, but for fecks sake like, loads of lows caught up in the easterly = Deep Deep powder,should that happen.

ninebeanrows · 22-01-2006 12:13pm

Looks like the games nearly up folks..

all models are agreeing pretty well that the high will just sit over
us and fail to link east. It will be cold and frosty for a few days but
with no snow and cold airmass.

Fupp fupp fupp

SpitfireIV · 22-01-2006 1:11pm

The 06z looks like a whole bunch of fun..........:(

22-01-2006 1:25pm

Weathercheck wrote:

Looks like the games nearly up folks..

all models are agreeing pretty well that the high will just sit over
us and fail to link east. It will be cold and frosty for a few days but
with no snow and cold airmass.

Fupp fupp fupp

Exactly the same as last year then...
Thats why I generally dont get excited beyond the point of "wow thats a great run if it came off."

By the way I wouldnt give up the ghost yet...that high could do anything countryfile still had it to the north East of the UK on friday and theWMO discussion is talking about model disagreement so really its a situation that models on their own cant call.-It needs the human input of experienced forecasters to solve it.

lucernarian · 22-01-2006 2:19pm

Evelyn Cusack going for cold weather by next weekend on the farming forecast. The HP was shown to be basically parked over the british isles.

Does this seem the most likely scenario? I would think that with a weak jet, the atlantic will have a hard time breaking through, and the possible coldish weather could be a "prefreeze" to a more significant event in February. Fingers crossed.

22-01-2006 2:38pm

Well its all up in the air literally....

To tell you the truth,I didnt like that forecast because it showed a tendency for the high to slip south after it leaves Britain and that would bring us back to zonal.

It's not going to be much colder than average at the end of the week if thats the trend.
Theres a slight feed of Easterly but only really of modified British air...
Now we know what their weather is like currently so add 2 degrees to it and you'll get our temps ie pretty crappy from a snow point of view.

I dont like the way ECM has gone either
Remember thats the EUROPEAN model it should be better at solving European synoptics-though what we have now is more peculiar than usual.

22-01-2006 2:42pm

To_be_confirmed wrote:

I would think that with a weak jet, the atlantic will have a hard time breaking through, and the possible coldish weather could be a "prefreeze" to a more significant event in February. Fingers crossed.

I'm afraid to say thats wishfull thinking again and has no basis in fact obviously.
There were plenty of winters in the 80's where Europe froze and we got none of it as the Atlantic generally influence us and sometimes drifted in as far as Berlin before pushing back west agin to park over us.

We need the synoptics right and sitting in the Ocean as we do several hundred miles from the continent, its much more difficult for that continental climate to influence ours.

lucernarian · 22-01-2006 4:51pm

Earthman wrote:

I'm afraid to say thats wishfull thinking again and has no basis in fact obviously.

I certainly do wish it, and I'm only being optimistic when I say it. It seems like we're on track for a cooler end to the week. I think that's a better position to be in heading into February than in a LP based strong zonal flow.

As for the jet and the Atlantic;

http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn001.png
http://217.160.75.104/pics/Rtavn0014.png

The atlantic seems preety inactive at the moment to my untrained eye though in fairness that can change. To have the HP remain over the British Isles during the weekend can't be ruled out IMO.

maquiladora · 22-01-2006 5:08pm

Alan Repperts euro weather blog from accuweather :

Much Colder and Maybe Some Ocean Effect?

Sunday, January 22, 2006

Well, that cold air does look to be on the doorstep by the end of the week and into the weekend, and even though the models have backed down a bit on the cold in England, it still does look like it will be here. And as some people around the Great Lakes know, with colder temperatures and stronger winds, snow sometimes falls from the Lake Effect snow. And as strange as it sounds, Ocean Effect snow can occur and will likely occur next weekend. With the winds out of the east through much of the lower levels as the storm moves towards England, this provides some of the needed ingredients for the Ocean Effect. Along with that, a cold airmass will be over the warm ocean temperatures in the middle and upper 40s. And with some stronger winds off the ocean, this will help to bring some of this Ocean Effect snow.

Short term, it looks like temperatures will be dropping a bit. The warmth has been somewhat tempered as already, parts of this bitterly cold airmass over Russia are showing its strength. Temperatures have dropped to near freezing even over London for the first time in nearly a week and a half. But the true news over Western Europe will be with the much colder temperatures for the end of the week and into next weekend.

darkman2 · 22-01-2006 6:08pm

12z is MUCH better, alot of scope for something more significant. ECM at 168 should be interesting:)

SpitfireIV · 22-01-2006 6:26pm

Bit of a difference alright in the 12z, I wish it would stop changing all the time :rolleyes: , that aint gonna happen but it'd be nice if it stuck with something

sweet dreams are made of these who are we to disagree travel the world and the seven

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