Any exit polls?

is_that_so · 12-06-2008 10:42pm

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

Yesterday I was sure of a No win. I would have thought a low turnout would be a No turnout because of the sexiness of the No campaign. I thought there wouldn't be as many yes people coming out because there isn't so much of an incentive for them but pundits seem to think it's the opposite so I dunno.

RTE are suggesting a 40% turnout which is fairly typical but imo deeply embarrassing. Passed or not it is hardly resounding when only 20.04% (assuming 50.1% of 40%) of the eligible vote end up making a decision on it.
As pointed out somewhere else, probably by Scofflaw, the No vote that comes out in these types of referenda is hard core and tends to be fairly fixed. Nice 1 was defeated with a 35% turnout and Nice passed with 50% or so turnout. Generally speaking the higher the turnout goes above 40% the more likely a non abortion/divorce referendum will be passed. What will decide it is the proportion of those who were "deeply unhappy" with it in polls, who actually bothered to vote.

Rb · 12-06-2008 10:47pm

IRLConor wrote: »

RTE said that the turnout was 40ish% at 2210.

Quite disappointing considering how important the issue is. 67% turned out for the last General Election, yet don't bother for something I'd consider a lot more important.

StickyMcGinty · 13-06-2008 12:14am

Rb wrote: »

Quite disappointing considering how important the issue is. 67% turned out for the last General Election, yet don't bother for something I'd consider a lot more important.

hardly.

theres plenty of reasons why referenda usually have a lower turnout.

AtomicHorror · 13-06-2008 1:28am

StickyMcGinty wrote: »

hardly.

theres plenty of reasons why referenda usually have a lower turnout.

I wonder how many people find it vaguely ludicrous that we are expected to respond to a 200 page question with Yes or No. This is what lawyers and politicians are for- to negotiate the details so we don't have to turn off the PS3 and read about politics.

FrankGrimes · 13-06-2008 2:04am

Rb wrote: »

Quite disappointing considering how important the issue is. 67% turned out for the last General Election, yet don't bother for something I'd consider a lot more important.

+1 on that. Imo there's not all that much difference between the main political parties likely to be in power after a general election (I'm almost equally unimpressed with all of them but I still vote though of course), so I rarely seel local or general elections of being likely to lead to major changes.

I really do feel that a No vote here will do significant damage to our relationship with Europe and as this comes at a time of global economic uncertainty, a significant downturn in our construction and property markets, and reduction in attractivenss of Ireland as base for foreign multi-nationals due to high costs, I fear we would look back on a No vote in 20 years time with much regret.

The COIR group were right in stating 'It'll cost you' on their posters, I just feel they got it wrong in believing it is a Yes that will cost us.

I hoped for a Yes but I now fear it will be a No, or at best a Yes by a tiny margin of a pathetic turnout.

Crash · 13-06-2008 2:14am

Thought folks might find this interesting:

ireland.com wrote:

One of the country's leading bookmakers, Paddy Power, decided within minutes of the polls closing to pay out early to those who had bet that the Yes campaign would win.

http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/frontpage/2008/0613/1213305635509.html

While thats pretty unique, do I remember PP not getting stung on something like this before?

edit: Oh, and click through the link and open up the front page photo large. Its great

sink · 13-06-2008 2:19am

crash_000 wrote: »

Thought folks might find this interesting:

http://www.ireland.com/newspaper/frontpage/2008/0613/1213305635509.html

While thats pretty unique, do I remember PP not getting stung on something like this before?

edit: Oh, and click through the link and open up the front page photo large. Its great

Now that's gone and gotten me all excited. If a no vote happens now I will be very upset.

grenache · 13-06-2008 2:35am

Given that its a 50% turnout, i will be surprised if the Yes camp do not win.

Hitman Actual · 13-06-2008 7:34am

Just home from a night out... turn-out only in the low 40% range, which has the Yes side sweating.

Pal · 13-06-2008 7:45am

I am very disappointed that so many people could rationally convince themselves to vote no. I despair for my country. Too many have such short memories and are so easily mislead by neo socialist scaremongerers purporting to offer a better way. My bollix. The younger set seem to think that a certain nameless party actually offers a better alternative (nameless because of all the grief you get here when you mention them in any disparaging way). More and more frequently wonder why I choose to live in Ireland other than the fact that I was born here. Its hardly worth having pride in anymore with so many far left loonies and dressed up thugs getting so much say. Here's hoping common sense prevails and YES wins.

mikemac · 13-06-2008 7:53am

Pretty significant that Paddy Power paid out early.
They have traders and mathematicans working out liability and risk and they have managers all over the country too.
I think that's a boost for the Yes camp if they want reassuring.

Of course, sometimes go wrong like Fred Done bookmakers who paid out early on the 1998 Premier League

Hitman Actual · 13-06-2008 8:10am

micmclo wrote: »

Pretty significant that Paddy Power paid out early.
They have traders and mathematicans working out liability and risk and they have managers all over the country too.
I think that's a boost for the Yes camp if they want reassuring.

I really, really hope so. But I also heard a snippet on the news this morning where the statisticians on the Yes side reckoned they needed 45% turn-out to be 'safe'. And as the Poker forum is my normal home on boards, I'm a big believer in stats and maths. I reckon it's still going down to the wire.

Pal · 13-06-2008 8:14am

must take a look at the poker forum. never could quite get the hang of Texas Holdem

Hitman Actual · 13-06-2008 8:21am

Pal wrote: »

must take a look at the poker forum. never could quite get the hang of Texas Holdem

You're very welcome, but a quick word of warning: it's not always as civil as this forum! There are a few guys here, both on the Yes and No side, who could show the rest of boards how to post proper constructive arguments. It's been an enlightening few weeks here, personally speaking.

Khannie · 13-06-2008 10:42am

micmclo wrote: »

Pretty significant that Paddy Power paid out early.
They have traders and mathematicans working out liability and risk and they have managers all over the country too.

Don't forget....part of it is marketing. They get their name out on every radio station and internet board by paying out early.

DeVore · 13-06-2008 10:46am

Khannie wrote: »

Don't forget....part of it is marketing. They get their name out on every radio station and internet board by paying out early.

Exactly. Its a deliberate ploy by them. Clever though!

DeV.

Any exit polls?

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