New Government Report spells disaster for on-shore Wind Energy

Dermot McDonnell · 07-10-2014 1:06pm #1

New Government Report spells disaster for on-shore Wind Energy

The new Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland Wind Atlas predicts 50% less available energy from on-shore wind.

From the contractors report – Part1, Part2. Maps showing mean wind speed 100m a.g. (above ground) from the existing (left), and new (right), wind atlases.

SEAI have not published the new wind atlas on their website, however, it has been available on request to the cognoscenti. We can calculate the mean power loss for two locations for which there is specific public information.

Mean Wind Speeds from New Wind Atlas.

Mean Wind Speeds for Oweninny from Existing Wind Atlas.

For Oweninny, the new atlas gives 7.7m/s mean wind speed at 100m a.g. The existing atlas gives a range, 9.5m/s to 9.75m/s, when you click on the existing Bellacorick wind farm icon at the heart of the site. As power is proportional to the cube of the wind speed, we can calculate the mean power ratios:

(7.7 x 7.7 x 7.7)/(9.5 x 9.5 x 9.5) and (7.7 x 7.7 x 7.7)/(9.75 x 9.75 x 9.75) equals 0.53 and 0.49.

The fall in the mean available power at 100m a.g. is 47% to 51%. The Cluddaun figures are similar. From the maps you can see the vast bulk of the country, with few exceptions, has experienced a massive fall in available wind power. Indeed, there are areas where the decline in available wind power appears to be even greater than at Oweninny/Cluddaun in North Mayo. Unfortunately, data for specific locations is very sparse.

For all but a couple of wind farm developers, the new SEAI Wind Atlas in an unmitigated disaster as banks and investors will look very hard once again at prospective projects.

BoJack Horseman · 07-10-2014 1:28pm

Forgive the ignorance....

Would this not be temporary?
Climate change is making stormy/windy weather more frequent I thought?

Dermot McDonnell · 07-10-2014 2:46pm

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

Forgive the ignorance....

Would this not be temporary?
Climate change is making stormy/windy weather more frequent I thought?

My thoughts exactly, after all increased air temperature means more energy, not less, in the athmosphere. I wrote to SEAI and this is what they had to say

"The updated 2013 atlas derives its data mostly from the decade commencing 2000, whereas the previous version of the atlas derived mostly from the decade commencing 1990. It is a recognised meteorological phenomenon that wind speeds were generally lower in the more recent decade and thus it is to be expected that specific figures would be lower in the updated atlas than the equivalent in the previous version."

Godge · 07-10-2014 3:09pm

Dermot McDonnell wrote: »

My thoughts exactly, after all increased air temperature means more energy, not less, in the athmosphere. I wrote to SEAI and this is what they had to say

"The updated 2013 atlas derives its data mostly from the decade commencing 2000, whereas the previous version of the atlas derived mostly from the decade commencing 1990. It is a recognised meteorological phenomenon that wind speeds were generally lower in the more recent decade and thus it is to be expected that specific figures would be lower in the updated atlas than the equivalent in the previous version."

Does that mean that climate change is not happening or that scientists misunderstood the effects of climate change?

BoJack Horseman · 07-10-2014 3:50pm

Godge wrote: »

Does that mean that climate change is not happening or that scientists misunderstood the effects of climate change?

Or my understanding is all wrong.

Perhaps we will see a period of lower average wind skewed by more frequent extreme weather events?
Which is probably useless for wind farms.

Already there is a "PR-ish" skew on government announcements on installed power vs real power generated.

That gap will grow if average wind drops.

Dermot McDonnell · 07-10-2014 10:54pm

BoJack Horseman wrote: »

...Already there is a "PR-ish" skew on government announcements..

Hold that thought!

A vanishing resource is vanishing wealth. How much I wonder?

We can figure that out for the two locations, Oweninny and Cluddaun, as we have the necessary data. These are adjacent sites and so, for simplicity and to err on the side of caution, we will treat them as one big wind farm and use the, lower, Oweninny wind speeds to make the calculations.

In total, their grid connection contract is for 521MW. They want 160 turbines at between 90m and 120m a.g. Again for simplicity we will assume all production takes place at 100m a.g.

521MW/160 turbines = 3.25MW per turbine. Of the turbines considered in their planning application, the largest is the Vestas V112 - 3.075MW - 112m blade diameter, and the smallest is the Vestas V90 - 3MW - 90m blade diameter.

The Swiss Government simplify the calculation process considerably on their website and provide a capacity factor, a term scientists use to quantify wind farm production, past or future. A capacity factor of 1, or 100%, is the theoretical maximum.

Wind Speed:|_| 7.7m/s |_| 9.5m/s |_| 9.75m/s
Vestas V90 |_| 0.348 |_| 0.480 |_| 0.495
Vestas V112|_| 0.445 |_| 0.575 |_| 0.589

Which brings us to the money. We will use the State REFIT rate for large wind €69.581/MWh, the minimum price. There is also a capacity payment but we will ignore it.

Production value - 521MW for one year for both new, and existing, wind atlases:

Wind Speed:|_| 7.7m/s |_| 9.5m/s |_| 9.75m/s
160 x Vestas V90 at 100m a.g. |_| €102m |_| €140m |_| €145m
160 x Vestas V112 at 100m a.g.|_| €134m |_| €173m |_| €177m

The new wind altas estimates the minimum value of production at Oweninny/Cluddaun at between €102m to €134m.

The existing wind altas estimates the minimum value of production at Oweninny/Cluddaun at between €140m - €177m.

That's €38m - €43m per year, absolute minimum, in gross profit lost in the new wind atlas scenario, index linked to the price of energy for the 30+ year lifetime of these wiind farms. It runs to several €billion over the lifetime.

chromazone · 08-10-2014 12:08am

Dermot,

If what you say is true, why hasn't this been in the news? A drop in windspeed like this means that around one third of the potential for sustainable energy from windfarms is gone!

Is this the case across Europe?

Paul Thomas Rowland · 08-10-2014 1:02am

chromazone wrote: »

Dermot,

If what you say is true, why hasn't this been in the news? A drop in windspeed like this means that around one third of the potential for sustainable energy from windfarms is gone!

Is this the case across Europe?

This huge loss in wind power in Ireland has not been in the news, or scientific journals, because it has not happened. I don't believe a word of what's in the SEAI new wind atlas. The wind resource has not gone anywhere. I see in the engineers report llinked by the OP that in this new wind atlas they thank people from ESB and Board na Mona for their mast observations. One of the thanked has the same name as the project manager for Oweninny Wind Farm. How very kind of SEAI to make sure their stable mates get to have a nice sit down, cup of tea and a chat with the contractor to make sure this new wind atlas tells their story.

ESB and Board na Mona are giving us the poor mouth so they don't have to give the peasants anything. What a piece of cheap low down government cr*p. Have they got planning yet? Will they go ahead?

Dermot McDonnell · 08-10-2014 3:20pm

Paul Thomas Rowland wrote: »

...ESB and Board na Mona are giving us the poor mouth ... Will they go ahead?

You might imagine that the prospect of losing €30m per year for 33 years would be bad news for the ESB and BnM, but the new wind atlas is a godsend for them.

They claim a capacity factor of 0.33 for Oweninny and it's pretty clear if you look at the numbers above, that the existing wind atlas forecasts much greater production and a vastly more profitable wind farm business. Their 0.33 figure appears 4 times in 3 different documents in their planning application. I guess it comes as no surprise to you that the new wind atlas rather precisely predicts a capacity factor of around 0.33 for the smallest turbine, V90, at the lowest hub height, 90m a.g. The calculation above for the new wind atlas gives 0.348 at 100m a.g.

I am fairly sure that the new, unpublished, SEAI wind atlas will find its way to An Bord Pleanála, who may then rely on it as "independent" verification of the Oweninny production figures. A decision is due soon.

In granting a planning permission, the Bord verifies the scientific data in the Environmental Impact Statement, including the production figures. In doing so, the Bord places a value on Oweninny Power Ltd., the ESB/BnM joint vehicle. That value will, of course, be far less than the existing wind atlas, and other data, would imply.

My money is on the sale of OPL, or even BnM, following any grant of planning permission for Oweninny. The lucky new owners will discover a vastly richer cash flow when Oweninny wind farm comes on-line. Who knows, we might even see a management buyout of these state assets.

If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, waddles like a duck, then maybe they will float it, like a duck, and become very rich indeed

Paul Thomas Rowland · 08-10-2014 4:20pm

Dermot McDonnell wrote: »

That value will, of course, be far less than the existing wind atlas, and other data, would imply.

What other data?

Dermot McDonnell · 08-10-2014 5:05pm

Paul Thomas Rowland wrote: »

What other data?

First this:

UK Dept of Trade & Industry: UK onshore wind capacity factors 1998-2004

This rigerous study looked at metered production at 8 wind farms north of the border for 7 full years. In 6 of the 7 years the capacity factor was higher than the 0.33 ESB and BnM claim for Oweninny wind farm. The mean capactity factor is almost 10% higher.

The turbines in the DTI study are tiny by comparison with the huge turbines proposed for Oweninny, yet we are to believe that Oweninny will produce less on a unit basis over the next 38 years. I don't buy that.

Then this:

Published by BnM, these data are based on wind measurements made at 3 x 50m masts at Oweninny since 2002. The smallest turbine, the V90, would have a greater capacity factor at 50m a.g. than the ESB n BnM claim at 90m a.g. The larger turbine, the V112, would not produce anything at 50m a.g., it blades are too long.

And then there's the Irish Energy Center study, done in co-operation with BnM, of Ireland's oldest wind farm, Bellacorick, in operation since 1992 at Oweninny. Again it looks at metered production and provides a mean wind speed at 30m a.g. of 7.27m/s. The tiny turbines achieved a 31% capacity factor over the four year period of the study. We are being asked to believe that hugh turbines proposed will produce a less than 10% more on a unit basis? I don't think so.

Is that enough other data?

Paul Thomas Rowland · 08-10-2014 5:56pm

Dermot McDonnell wrote: »

Is that enough other data?

I hope that An Board Planala will rise to the opportunity.
It reminds me of the track How to Steal €10 Billion in Natural Resources by Institutionalised Crime, do you know it? It's on their album You live in a Kleptocracy.
You should report it to the guards.

Paul Thomas Rowland · 09-10-2014 11:08am

You kicked the hornets nest. The old SEAI wind atlas has vanished from their website this morning. It has been replaced by the new one. Talk about disposing of evidence.

I notice no one from the many thousands of people in ESB, Board na Mona, SEAI, Dept of Energy or political spin doctors have shown up here to challenge your figures, that tells it's own story.

flutered · 09-10-2014 11:19am

has not the uk giving up on wind farms, was this one of the reasons they were trying to import wind eenery from here, thr germans have found out that it is more than expensive, its the same across europe one is letd to believe.

Dermot McDonnell · 09-10-2014 2:53pm

flutered wrote: »

has not the uk giving up on wind farms, was this one of the reasons they were trying to import wind eenery from here, thr germans have found out that it is more than expensive, its the same across europe one is letd to believe.

A quick look at the DTI study will show you that the 8 wind farms up north produced 39% more electricity on a unit basis over the seven years considered than English wind farms. From the UK, and broader EU perspective, wind turbines here are "gushers".

Consider for a moment the wind business, if the breakeven capacity factor for a wind farm is, say 0.28, and the farm achieves 0.33, the gross margin is 0.05. If the farm achieves 0.59, the gross margin is 0.31 over six times greater. That goes directly to the bottom line, the rate of return on the investment is much much better and the business vastly more valuable as a consequence.

The New Wind Atlas is a result of the Dept of Energy making sure all its minions are singing from the same hymn sheet in respect of Oweninny. Making half our national wind resource disappear is just a consequence of their Orwellian scheme.

The total value of the discrepancy amounts to a sizable chunk of our national debt.

Why were ESB and BnM invited to engage in a "verification exercise" with the new wind atlas contractors? Why not Met Eireann, Coillte, Bord Gais, the Marine Institute, etc all of whom have relevant wind data?

The Law requires developers to provide an environmental impact statement (EIS) and to conduct public consultation in respect of any development. Telling the public lies in respect of the value, and profitability, of the resource is not a consultation exercise, it is propaganda exercise - a disinformation campaign.

Clearly enough the legislator wished to eliminate the possibility of a superficial, subjective or non-informative environmental impact statement and any statement meeting that description would not comply with the provisions of the Act, with the result that any final decision would be a nullity. - Cripps J in Prineas v Forestry Commission of New South Wales (1983) 49 LGRA 402

The real issue is what An Bord Pleanála will do? Do they have the stomach to take on the Dept of Energy and its powerful, extremely greedy, minions, ESB and BnM. Are developers free to include any old rubbish in a planning application, pay the fee, subject communities to fear and apprehension, so they can steal our natural resources?

chromazone · 12-10-2014 8:49pm

Had a chance to look at this in some depth this weekend. I agree the Oweninny production figures look extremely suspicious but I have some questions.

What did Coillte say about production in their planning application?

I did look but the application is thousands of pages long and I did not find anything relevant.
Any information on production from other west coast wind farms?

Dont the semistate companies need the permission of the Minister to sell Oweninny Power Limited?

It's not as if the wealth could just vanish into that company and never be seen again. After all, we do own these semistate companies, right?

Dermot McDonnell · 16-10-2014 12:46pm

chromazone wrote: »

..
What did Coillte say about production in their planning application?

Coillte quoted an expected mean wind speed range of 8.75m/s to 9.75m/s having had an 80m met mast, with anemometers every 10m, onsite for 18months prior to making their planning application. Coillte are in the remit of Dept of Agriculture, not Energy. Their mean wind figures are in full agreement with the old SEAI wind atlas and the scientific data published for the Oweninny site next door. Their figures utterly contradict the new SEAI wind atlas and the 0.33 capacity factor described as "expected" in the Oweninny planning application.

There is no obligation on developers to include production figures in a planning application. I have never heard of a case where a developer has done so. All of which begs the question:

Why did ESB and BnM include a capacity factor figure, it appears four times in their application, and why is it so far from the true figure?

As the discrepancy runs to several thousand million euro, I suggest their motive is natural resource fraud on an epic scale. They are relying on An Bord Pleanála to "validate" their 33% figure so that the project can be sold for what appears to be fair value, but is a fraction of the true value. As I said, perhaps via a management buyout or via sale to their nominee in Liechtenstein.

chromazone wrote: »

..
Any information on production from other west coast wind farms?

The Irish Energy Center Study of Cronalaght wind farm, Co. Donegal, quotes a capacity factor of 42.4% in its first year of operation based on metered production.

A Danish University Study of metered production at the same wind farm over the first 30months of operation show a capacity factor of over 46% for that period.

The hub height at Cronalaght is 40m and blade diameter 39m, very small by comparison of the turbines proposed for Oweninny and Cluddaun, 90m - 120m hub heights and 90m to 112m blade diameter.

chromazone wrote: »

..
Dont the semistate companies need the permission of the Minister to sell Oweninny Power Limited?

No. Semi-state companies are free to make commercial decisions free from interference or any real oversight.

chromazone wrote: »

..It's not as if the wealth could just vanish into that company and never be seen again. After all, we do own these semistate companies, right?

Oweninny Power Limited can be sold the day planning permission is granted. It owns the rights to develop the wind farm. Once gone, the wealth, I predict, will prove well nigh impossible to retrieve. It would be more prudent to prevent the disappearance of this wealth, after all that costs nothing by comparison.

I think it rather sad that the State, via Dept of Energy, is attempting a natural resources fraud a few kilometers from the Corrib Refinery, the Dept of Energys last great energy project in Mayo, now 14 years late and €3billion over budget without having delivered a single watt second of energy to our economy. Sustainable development, Irish style. Is there any reason to believe they will be more successful with their latest project, Oweninny?

Paul Thomas Rowland · 28-10-2014 2:40pm

I spoke to a friend this weekend. He is chief engineer with a large industrial concern and has a PhD in mechanical engineering from UMIST. He had a couple of questions.

1. Did you check your production numbers for Oweninny independently of the Swiss government website?
2. Did the ESB and Bord na Mona provide their many years of wind speed measurements to the new SEAI Wind Atlas contractor?
3. Where did you get the Long Term Predicted Wind Speeds at 50m above ground for Oweninny and the associated wind roses?
4. What do you do if permission for Oweninny/Cluddaun is granted by An Bord Pleanala in the next couple of weeks?
5. Where do the local political establishment stand in relation to this bizarre situation?

Dermot McDonnell · 20-11-2014 4:34pm

Paul Thomas Rowland wrote: »

... questions.

1. Did you check your production numbers for Oweninny independently of the Swiss government website?

I take due diligence very seriously. Wind speeds for Oweninny/Cluddaun at 90m to 120m were calculated by one of our leading scientists, holder of a chair in Physics in this country.

I paid a Danish University to independently develop a computer model for the turbines considered in the applicants noise analysis.

That model was independently checked by a US based expert in the modelling software used.

2. Did the ESB and Bord na Mona provide their many years of wind speed measurements to the new SEAI Wind Atlas contractor?

BnM have over 30 years wind data for Oweninny. Their outgoing CEO had this to say “the longest line of clean wind data of any company in the British Isles going back to 1990.”

The data supplied by ESB/BnM to the Wind Atlas contractor included wind logger data for some masts and other, unspecified, data for other masts. The data has been anonymised, it is not possible to tie any of the data to specific locations. However, there is a wealth of information in the data contained in the contractors report. I have subject it to my own analysis and I am now having independent analysis done.

3. Where did you get the Long Term Predicted Wind Speeds at 50m above ground for Oweninny and the associated wind roses?

From my local TD, Deputy Kenny. I saw him and requested those specific data. He wrote to BnM and they emailed the document to him. His office forward it to me. BnM accepted the figures are theirs.

4. What do you do if permission for Oweninny/Cluddaun is granted by An Bord Pleanala in the next couple of weeks?

Apply for judicial review of the decision. This is Ireland, not Russia, the state cannot lie to the public, local representatives and planners in a strategic infrastructure development and get away with it. The Cabinet does not have the authority to authorize crime.

5. Where do the local political establishment stand in relation to this bizarre situation?

All Mayo TDs are fully aware that the ESB/BnM have lied in their planning application for Oweninny. One Govt Deputy suggested to me that the semi-state rational was to avoid making benefit contributions to local communities rather than a multi-billion euro natural resources fraud. It may be the case that the intention is to defraud thousands of people living in proximity to their wind farms, I do not know nor do I care to contemplate the sordid rational of the criminal mind. Crime is crime and the motive remains the same: greed.

flutered · 20-11-2014 8:14pm

have you seen the iw fiasco, you are up against similar, i wish you well in your endevors, as big buisness never give up a chance of making massive profits at the publics expense, again good luck.

Paul Thomas Rowland · 22-11-2014 1:23pm

flutered wrote: »

have you seen the iw fiasco, you are up against similar, i wish you well in your endevors, as big buisness never give up a chance of making massive profits at the publics expense, again good luck.

+1

23-11-2014 2:40pm

Paul Thomas Rowland wrote: »

This huge loss in wind power in Ireland has not been in the news, or scientific journals, because it has not happened. I don't believe a word of what's in the SEAI new wind atlas. The wind resource has not gone anywhere. I see in the engineers report llinked by the OP that in this new wind atlas they thank people from ESB and Board na Mona for their mast observations. One of the thanked has the same name as the project manager for Oweninny Wind Farm. How very kind of SEAI to make sure their stable mates get to have a nice sit down, cup of tea and a chat with the contractor to make sure this new wind atlas tells their story.

ESB and Board na Mona are giving us the poor mouth so they don't have to give the peasants anything. What a piece of cheap low down government cr*p. Have they got planning yet? Will they go ahead?

+1

Also suspicious of this. From SEAI (Quango), actually thanking ESB & Board na Mona for their data. Both being such big supporters of renewable energy:mad:.

Dermot McDonnell · 23-11-2014 5:53pm

@flutered & @323 Thank you for your support. Watch this space, An Bord Pleanála are due to issue a decision in respect of Oweninny and Cluddaun on Friday, Dec 5th.

You might note the national media silence on this huge €850m state windfarm. At 521MW, Oweninny/Cluddaun would have 6 times the capacity of our largest windfarm today. It's not surprising, I suppose, that RTE, yet another tentacle of the Dept of Comms Enery & Natural Resources, has had virtually nothing to say about this project. The national print media have pretty much ignored it too. Perhaps they do not wish to irritate ESB & BnM, both of which have large media budgets.

I don't expect too much from An Bord Pleanála. Shooting down strategic infrastructure projects proposed by the state is probably not a good career move for a civil servant in this country. My experience in dealing with the planning authorities in respect of these projects has been negative. You may wish to listen to our County Secretary explain why the Council reported a community benefit contribution recommendation of €2,500 per MW of capacity, rather than the €10,000 decided unanimously by the elected members, for Cluddaun windfarm to An Bord Pleánala. The decision took less time that the explanation. Both audio clips of the Council meetings are from MP3 files supplied by MCC under the FoI Acts.

I must say that I do look forward to the state explaining the disappearance of one half of our wind resource to the High Court

Voltex · 06-12-2014 8:13pm

Wind and solar energy looks like its gonna be even more popular over the coming years:
http://www.economist.com/news/technology-quarterly/21635331-matching-output-demand-hard-wind-and-solar-power-answer-store

Dermot McDonnell · 15-01-2015 12:15pm

An Bord Pleanála say a decision in respect of the proposed Oweninny and Cluddaun wind farms will be published on Friday, 30th January, 2015.

I am very grateful to Boards Moderator, Declan, for reinstating the images and scientific data in posts #1 and #11 of this thread.

If you have not had an opportunity to consider the excellent scientific data, you may wish to do so now. They clearly indicate the State is lying to the public in respect of value, and profitability, of this massive natural resources project, 12 km from the Corrib Gas Refinery.

Some €10billion in profit has been carefully concealed - erased from reality - by the ESB and BnM, with the help of the new SEAI wind atlas, as a prelude to their theft of that natural resource wealth. It remains to be seen whether An Bord Pleanála will assist, or thwart, this criminal scheme.

robp · 15-01-2015 4:56pm

Voltex wrote: »

Wind and solar energy looks like its gonna be even more popular over the coming years:
http://www.economist.com/news/technology-quarterly/21635331-matching-output-demand-hard-wind-and-solar-power-answer-store

The price of oil and gas has collapsed so that will impact. That is going to make subsidised renewables far less attractive for some time.

Dermot McDonnell · 15-01-2015 6:04pm

robp wrote: »

The price of oil and gas has collapsed so that will impact. That is going to make subsidised renewables far less attractive for some time.

Wind is largely insulated from fluctuations in gas/oil prices.

The State, through REFIT offers a guaranteed minimum price, index linked, for electricity generated from wind for the first 15 years of these projects. This mininum figure is what I have used in calculations in earlier posts. Projects are also entitled to a capacity payment, not index linked, simply for being available to generate. I have ignored this payment entirely in order to take a very conservative view in valuation calculations.

windnoiseinfo · 16-01-2015 4:06am

For those interested in wind farms take a look at

www windnoise info (I a newbie so cannot post links)

Paul Thomas Rowland · 16-01-2015 2:24pm

windnoiseinfo wrote: »

For those interested in wind farms take a look at

www windnoise info (I a newbie so cannot post links)

Very interesting site. Can you calculate the noise expected at Oweninny at 100m above ground as predicted by the both wind atlases? Mean wind speed of 7.7m/s in the new atlas and 9.75m/s in the older wind atlas. I suspect the new atlas predicts much lower noise, how convenient that would be for SEAI, ESB, Coillte and BnM.

windnoiseinfo · 16-01-2015 2:39pm

Paul Thomas Rowland wrote: »

Very interesting site. Can you calculate the noise expected at Oweninny at 100m above ground as predicted by the both wind atlases? Mean wind speed of 7.7m/s in the new atlas and 9.75m/s in the older wind atlas. I suspect the new atlas predicts much lower noise, how convenient that would be for SEAI, ESB, Coillte and BnM.

For compliance it does not work quiet like that

Take a read of www ioa org uk/publications/good-practice-guide

Noise is calculated as a function of wind speed and distance. So say a house is 1Km from the wind farm what you do is plot the predicted noise level for a range of wind speeds typically 3m/s (cut in speed) to 12 m/s

The fact that the mean wind speed at Oweninny is now lower than predicted will make no difference to the overall noise prediction. It just means that you will get less electricity

If the wind blows at 10 m/s then you will get the noise level predicted on the wind noise map

Hope that helps

Paul Thomas Rowland · 16-01-2015 2:54pm

windnoiseinfo wrote: »

...
If the wind blows at 10 m/s then you will get the noise level predicted on the wind noise map

Hope that helps

Very helpful, thank you for the wind noise map. So although the new wind atlas predicts electricity procuction is half that predicted by the old atlas, noise behaves differently.

windnoiseinfo · 16-01-2015 3:26pm

Correct -

electricity is a function of wind speed
noise generated is a function of wind speed

more wind = more noise & more electricity

Dermot McDonnell · 03-02-2015 4:25pm

An Bord Pleanála have further postponed a decision on the massive Oweninny, and Cluddaun, wind farm applications. The first decision date, announced following the oral hearings, was end of Sept, then end of Dec, then end of Jan and now 27th February.

Perhaps they are suffering from indigestion?

The judgement of Peart J. in the High Court, a few weeks ago, will likely have an impact. The Judge ruled that the grant of planning permission by An Bord Pleanála for the relatively tiny Framore Wind Farm was flawed:

"..I have already concluded that in reality the wind farm and its connection in due course to the national grid is one project, neither being independent of the other as was the case on R (Littlewood) v. Bassetlaw District Council [supra] for example. The Board’s submissions are very much predicated on the contrary argument, and on the fact as submitted also by Framore that at this point in time there have been no proposals formulated by ESB Networks for the design and route of the connection to the national grid. That argument does not, it seems to me, justify treating phase 1 as a stand-alone project when in truth it is not. Rather, it points to a prematurity in the seeking of permission for the construction of the wind farm ahead of the detailed proposals for its connection to the national grid from ESB Networks..." Peart, J. [2014] IEHC 632

I am not an expert but I believe the implications of the judgement are that planning permissions granted for wind turbines where there is neither existing, or permissioned, grid capacity amount to a nullity. Cluddaun is entirely dependent on Eirgrids GridWest project, as yet unpermissioned, and approximately 200MW of the 371MW total capacity of Oweninny is similarly constrained. Existing grid at Bellacorick has capacity for 171MW.

windnoiseinfo · 03-02-2015 6:43pm

Basically you will see no movement for about a year

if an EIS has to consider the whole project and the connection is not available then the whole project cannot be considered

Until GridWest is unlocked then its stuck - when GridWest submits its planning it will have to include in its assessment as per the directive

direct and indirect effects of a project on the following factors:
(a) human beings, fauna and flora;
(b) soil, water, air, climate and the landscape;
(c) material assets and the cultural heritage;
(d) the interaction between the factors referred to in points (a), (b) and (c)

an indirect effect will be a wind farm connected to it - so it will have to assess every wind farm which is already built or is going to be built and connected to the grid as well as the pylons/cables etc itself

talk about being tied up in knots !!

Dermot McDonnell · 05-02-2015 5:44pm

windnoiseinfo wrote: »

Basically you will see no movement for about a year ...
talk about being tied up in knots !!

The ESB and BnM were very careful to structure their planning application for Oweninny in three phases. Phases 1 & 2 can be granted permission on the basis of existing grid capacity at Bellacorick.

An Bord Pleanála must decide the planning applications based on current law in a timely manner. The Framore judgement has changed the law and it will most likely kill off Cluddaun and Phase 3 of Oweninny, but not Phases 1 & 2.

Expect a decision soon.

I have not mentioned the mean wind speed evidence given by the chief scientist for the ESB at the oral hearings, suffice it to say at this point, that his evidence conflicts sharply with the energy production figures supplied in the planning application. I shall post a transcript of the evidence of the chief scientist when it is released by ABP.

fclauson · 09-02-2015 1:34pm

Dermot McDonnell wrote: »

T I shall post a transcript of the evidence of the chief scientist when it is released by ABP.

Any idea when ?

oppenheimer1 · 09-02-2015 9:29pm

Dermot McDonnell wrote: »

You might imagine that the prospect of losing €30m per year for 33 years would be bad news for the ESB and BnM, but the new wind atlas is a godsend for them.

They claim a capacity factor of 0.33 for Oweninny and it's pretty clear if you look at the numbers above, that the existing wind atlas forecasts much greater production and a vastly more profitable wind farm business. Their 0.33 figure appears 4 times in 3 different documents in their planning application. I guess it comes as no surprise to you that the new wind atlas rather precisely predicts a capacity factor of around 0.33 for the smallest turbine, V90, at the lowest hub height, 90m a.g. The calculation above for the new wind atlas gives 0.348 at 100m a.g.

I am fairly sure that the new, unpublished, SEAI wind atlas will find its way to An Bord Pleanála, who may then rely on it as "independent" verification of the Oweninny production figures. A decision is due soon.

In granting a planning permission, the Bord verifies the scientific data in the Environmental Impact Statement, including the production figures. In doing so, the Bord places a value on Oweninny Power Ltd., the ESB/BnM joint vehicle. That value will, of course, be far less than the existing wind atlas, and other data, would imply.

My money is on the sale of OPL, or even BnM, following any grant of planning permission for Oweninny. The lucky new owners will discover a vastly richer cash flow when Oweninny wind farm comes on-line. Who knows, we might even see a management buyout of these state assets.

If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, waddles like a duck, then maybe they will float it, like a duck, and become very rich indeed

Thats all a bit conspiracy theory - grounded entirely in conjecture and not fact.

Dermot McDonnell · 10-02-2015 10:50am

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

Thats all a bit conspiracy theory - grounded entirely in conjecture and not fact.

Really?

The summary wind data for Oweninny, measured over 10 years, and published by BnM is a fact.
The UK DTI study of 8 wind farms north of the border over 7 years is a fact.
The evidence given to the Oral Hearings by the Chief Scientist for the ESB is a fact.
The Irish Wind Energy Study of Oweninny is a fact.
The new wind altas, which predicts half the energy yield at Oweninny compared to the old Wind Atlas, is a fact.

All of these facts clearly indicate that the ESB and Bord na Móna are lying to the public about their expected energy yield at Oweninny in the amount of several thousand millions euro. I dont need to speculate, the evidence very very clear. The question is what is An Bord Pleanála going to do about it. The State is unlikely to take on the State.

Now, perhaps you would you care to point out the conjecture, please?

oppenheimer1 · 10-02-2015 12:56pm

Dermot McDonnell wrote: »

Really?

The summary wind data for Oweninny, measured over 10 years, and published by BnM is a fact.
The UK DTI study of 8 wind farms north of the border over 7 years is a fact.
The evidence given to the Oral Hearings by the Chief Scientist for the ESB is a fact.
The Irish Wind Energy Study of Oweninny is a fact.
The new wind altas, which predicts half the energy yield at Oweninny compared to the old Wind Atlas, is a fact.

All of these facts clearly indicate that the ESB and Bord na Móna are lying to the public about their expected energy yield at Oweninny in the amount of several thousand millions euro. I dont need to speculate, the evidence very very clear. The question is what is An Bord Pleanála going to do about it. The State is unlikely to take on the State.

Now, perhaps you would you care to point out the conjecture, please?

The conjecture and conspiracy as you see it is straight forward. You're saying that the ESB, BnM and the SEAI are in cahoots together to deliberately downplay the national wind resource in order to build a larger wind farm that they will then sell at an undervalued price in a management buyout. You have no evidence for any of this, your only "fact" is that the new map has lower wind speeds than the old. This is to be expected given the changing meteorological conditions, and likely higher resolution of the new map.

I get that you're against the new turbine project, but please if you're going to object, do so on genuine grounds like loss of visual amenity, not a spurious pseudo scientific, borderline libelous one.

Paul Thomas Rowland · 11-02-2015 4:15pm

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

...I get that you're against the new turbine project, but please if you're going to object, do so on genuine grounds like loss of visual amenity, not a spurious pseudo scientific, borderline libelous one.

Lol, you could not be further from the truth. Dermot Mcdonnell is from Moygownagh, right next Cluddaun, and he is perhaps the best known supporter of developing the wind resource in Mayo having campaigned in favour of doing that in the 2011 election. He did not get much support. We find ourselves unlikely allies as my family and I, as well as most people in our community, are completely opposed to the destruction of our environment by wind turbines and we support Peter Sweetman in his efforts to protect it.

I think it fair to say that many of us were suspicious of Mr Mcdonnells motives until he publicly destroyed the ESB and Bord na Móna energy production claims and their scientific team at the oral hearings, minced meat. Their senior counsel nearly had a heart attack. Following that session, Coillte refused to disclose their wind speed measurements, information would have created even greater difficulties for the ESB and Bord na Móna.

Mr Mcdonnell is no lightweight. He has a degree in mathematical physics and a 20 year career in London investment banking. He is fully qualified to put a value on these projects and ask why the state valuation is so much lower than the independent scientific evidence suggests. Most people here agree with him when he says we should have a full accounting of our natural resources to avoid economic disasters like Shell - that refinery is 10 miles away. It is widely believe here that corruption on the part of the state led to that disaster, the Department responsible was Energy Communitcaion and Resources, the very people with political responsibility for ESB, Bord na Móna and SEAI today.

The independent scientific reports predate the planning application and predict excellent production around here. Along come ESB and Bord na Móna with miserable production estimates in a planning application where no such estimates are required. They run into difficulties at the oral hearing and, lol and behold, the new wind atlas is secretly released by the SEAI sometime last summer after the hearings. SEAI did not publish it but made it available to those who might ask for it. It, and it alone, provides backing for the ESB and Bord na Móna production figures. What a surprise then that of the many state institutions with wind data, only ESB and Bord na Móna were invited to contribute to the new atlas. What a surprise also that the Oweninny Project Manager is thanked for his confidential "mast observations".

Institutionalised crime imo. I did suggest at the start of this thread that Mr Mcdonnell report the matter to the Gardaí.

fclauson · 11-02-2015 5:21pm

Paul Thomas Rowland wrote: »

... Following that session, Coillte refused to disclose their wind speed measurements, information would have created even greater difficulties for the ESB and Bord na Móna.

Submit an AIE request - they are a public authority and this cannot be withheld as it information which "relates to the environment"

Paul Thomas Rowland · 11-02-2015 6:24pm

fclauson wrote: »

Submit an AIE request - they are a public authority and this cannot be withheld as it information which "relates to the environment"

Great idea. Thank you very much.

oppenheimer1 · 11-02-2015 6:58pm

Paul Thomas Rowland wrote: »

The independent scientific reports predate the planning application and predict excellent production around here. Along come ESB and Bord na Móna with miserable production estimates in a planning application where no such estimates are required. They run into difficulties at the oral hearing and, lol and behold, the new wind atlas is secretly released by the SEAI sometime last summer after the hearings. SEAI did not publish it but made it available to those who might ask for it. It, and it alone, provides backing for the ESB and Bord na Móna production figures. What a surprise then that of the many state institutions with wind data, only ESB and Bord na Móna were invited to contribute to the new atlas. What a surprise also that the Oweninny Project Manager is thanked for his confidential "mast observations".

Institutionalised crime imo. I did suggest at the start of this thread that Mr Mcdonnell report the matter to the Gardaí.

It is hardly surprising that the atlas and BnM figures are in agreement since they both are derived from the same source. So perhaps yes, you cannot rely on the atlas for compete independent verification of the project estimates. However, they are not the only source for the maps and if logs were doctored to give a required result the figures would be obvious. In fact the oweninny figures follow the general trend of falling wind speeds, if they remained static, I would be along questioning it.

Values for wind for northern Ireland are also presented in this thread, but they are out of date, by 10 years! I just don't buy the argument that a national body like the seai would knowingly produce a map that understated the national wind resource so that others profit from it (in a management buy out). No evidence has been supplied to support this

Dermot McDonnell · 12-02-2015 3:47pm

fclauson wrote: »

Submit an AIE request - they are a public authority and this cannot be withheld as it information which "relates to the environment"

@fclauson, Greatly appreciated. I have written to Coillte as you suggested. I shall also ask ESB, BnM and Met Eireann for the wind data for the relevant areas. I will revert when they respond.

Dermot McDonnell · 12-02-2015 3:58pm

@oppenheimer1, I greatly appreciate your contribution here, if I cannot convince a skeptic that something is amiss I am likely wasting my time. I shall attempt to address the issues you raise in turn.

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

It is hardly surprising that the atlas and BnM figures are in agreement since they both are derived from the same source.

No, the Minister tells us the ESB and Bord na Móna mast data "was used by the contractor in the validation of the remodelled wind atlas datasets." That is to say, the remodelled data sets were compiled independently by the contractor and afterwards they met with ESB/BnM to see how the numbers looked. As the contractor was the UK Met Office, the new atlas appears to provide very powerful verification of the ESB/BnM production figures as it very precisely predicts that number for the smallest turbine geometry at the lowest hub height proposed, 90m a.g (above ground).

The fall in the mean power density at Oweninny in the New Wind Atlas, versus the Old, is ~50% at 100m above ground. From the maps, it would appear that there is a similar sharp fall in wind power across the Republic.

If the fall is 50% at 100m, what do you think the effect is at ground level. Don't you think we might have noticed? For example, a wind surfer would need a much larger sail, for the same body mass. Our legendary wind resource is now mediocre, forgive me if I missed that news story.

The large fall in the mean power density, in the absence of any significant change in mean air temperature/pressure, indicates a big drop in the mean kinetic energy of the atmospheric fluid over Ireland from 2000-2009. Thus the new wind atlas is the clearest evidence to date for Global Cooling.

The new wind atlas conflicts with the existing scientific data in exactly the same way the ESB/BnM production data does. The mean wind speeds, measured by BnM 50 a.g. at Oweninny over 2002 - 2010, for the 3 masts are 7.6m/s, 7.7m/s and 7.8m/s. The new atlas predicts 7.7m/s at 100m a.g. Real wind speed measurements at Oweninny show no fall at all in mean power density compared to earlier studies.

.... the oweninny figures follow the general trend of falling wind speeds..

What general trend of falling wind speeds? You are already fully invested in what SEAI have said:

"The updated 2013 atlas derives its data mostly from the decade commencing 2000, whereas the previous version of the atlas derived mostly from the decade commencing 1990. It is a recognised meteorological phenomenon that wind speeds were generally lower in the more recent decade and thus it is to be expected that specific figures would be lower in the updated atlas than the equivalent in the previous version."

Recognised by whom? Is there any scientific evidence, other than the new wind atlas, that shows the mean power density of the wind has changed significantly in the past 25 or indeed 50 years?

Values for wind for northern Ireland are also presented in this thread, but they are out of date, by 10 years!

5 of the 7 years considered are in the 2000s, the period considered by the new wind atlas. I can only use the scientific studies that are available, I don't make them up.

I just don't buy the argument that a national body like the seai would knowingly produce a map that understated the national wind resource so that others profit from it (in a management buy out). No evidence has been supplied to support this

The Minister tells us:

"The wind atlas was primarily intended as an information tool for Local Authorities in identifying areas suitable for renewable energy development within County Development Plans. Local Authorities have subsequently utilised the SEAI wind atlas as a basis for developing county wind energy strategies."

Local authorities are also including Community Benefit Contributions in their County Development Plans. Those contributions should be related to the value and profitability of developing a natural resource. Under the new wind atlas scenario, wind farms are less productive and vastly less profitable than they were in the 90s and as a consequence all wind farms will, in fairness to these "struggling" businesses, pay little or nothing to the small rural communities that host these projects.

Dept of CENR has no interest in inflicting serious community benefit contributions on it's own business interests, that would mean less bolly for them and their pals. The new wind atlas takes care of that problem across the county at a stroke.

..
but please if you're going to object, do so on genuine grounds like loss of visual amenity, not a spurious pseudo scientific, borderline libelous one.

Forgive me for suggesting that great institutions of state may be rotten to the core, that's not something that has ever happened in Ireland before. Sadly, it is difficult for a nerd like me to ignore the data that strongly suggests they are lying their heads off, utterly corrupt, that we live in the Kenny Kleptocracy and not in a normal western democracy. I cannot escape the numbers. Statistics don't lie, people do.

The Oweninny Planning Application was submitted July 4th, 2013. I made no posts anywhere and took my case to An Bord Pleanála and the oral hearings. When I discovered that SEAI has secretly placed the new wind atlas in the public domain, I decided that this represented an unacceptable level of risk that ABP would grant permission based on it, in doing so certify the production figures, and open up the possibility of disposal of this extremely valuable asset without any democratic control possibly leading to another Shell on my doorstep. Oweninny is wrapped up and ready to go, the special purpose vehicle and legals are all in place. All they need is certification of their numbers to execute a truly epic fraud. The equivalent of a Northern Bank raid each year for 30+ years, index linked. Way too much risk for a conservative nerdy old ex-banker like me.

So, I'll take my chances in the libel courts. You will note however, that in the four months existence of this thread, none of the usual paid naysayers have shown up and no scientific evidence has been presented to suggest that what I say is inaccurate or false.

Fabo · 12-02-2015 9:31pm

The capacity factor for 2014 was 28.7% so it doesnt matter how big of a wind turbine you have - when there are low wind speeds you will end up with a low CF.

So its not possible to certify the production figures of a wind farm. Get a bad year like last year or 2010 which was much worse and your golden egg turns into a bronze one.

I locked horns with a couple of BnM wind engineers, I dont think these windfarms will be sold on, the idea for these guys is to build big careers out of it.

If you want to object to a windfarm, then the best reason is the energy bubble (aswell as the lack of legal compliance) :

http://irishenergyblog.blogspot.ie/2015/01/energy-bub.html

Dermot McDonnell · 13-02-2015 4:50pm

Fabo wrote: »

...So its not possible to certify the production figures of a wind farm. Get a bad year like last year or 2010 which was much worse and your golden egg turns into a bronze one...

Thank you for this. It is perfectly possible to predict accurately the yield of a wind farm from data measurements, despite the stochastic nature of the resource. Let me illustrate with a graphic from the Met Eireann Annual Report 2004. Belmullet is the closest synoptic station to Oweninny.

The first and final annual mean wind speed vary by less than 2%.
If you predict the total yield, or capacity factor, over the entire period on the basis of the first two years measurements, you will be spot on.
There is no evidence for huge variations in power density.

The more data you have the more accurate your predictions. BnM are on record as having an excellent data for Oweninny - “the longest line of clean wind data of any company in the British Isles going back to 1990.”

oppenheimer1 · 14-02-2015 3:34am

Dermot McDonnell wrote: »

Thank you for this. It is perfectly possible to predict accurately the yield of a wind farm from data measurements, despite the stochastic nature of the resource. Let me illustrate with a graphic from the Met Eireann Annual Report 2004. Belmullet is the closest synoptic station to Oweninny.

The first and final annual mean wind speed vary by less than 2%.
If you predict the total yield, or capacity factor, over the entire period on the basis of the first two years measurements, you will be spot on.
There is no evidence for huge variations in power density.

The more data you have the more accurate your predictions. BnM are on record as having an excellent data for Oweninny - “the longest line of clean wind data of any company in the British Isles going back to 1990.”

Again Dermot, the chart you've provided does nothing to back up your argument really, since it doesn't include the 2000-2010 dataset.

Because I've got very little better to be at, from the most current met eireann dataset for Belmullet (obtainable from the website), a very basic analysis shows fall in the average windspeed in the period 2000-2010 compared to 1990-2000, somewhere between 15 and 20%. It is not inconceivable that a more pronounced effect is observed at a greater height. I'm sorry but your conspiracy doesn't stack up I'm afraid.

Dermot McDonnell · 14-02-2015 11:43am

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

Again Dermot, the chart you've provided does nothing to back up your argument really, since it doesn't include the 2000-2010 dataset.

Here is the Met Eireann graphic for Dublin Airport 1944 - 2010. Do you see any sign of any large variations over that period? Any sign of half of the wind power disappearing in the 2000's?

Because I've got very little better to be at, from the most current met eireann dataset for Belmullet (obtainable from the website), a very basic analysis shows fall in the average windspeed in the period 2000-2010 compared to 1990-2000, somewhere between 15 and 20%.

Would you be so kind as to publish your figures, please?

It is not inconceivable that a more pronounced effect is observed at a greater height.....

It is inconceivable actually, as friction effects are more pronounced closer to ground. The topology of an area does not change significantly in a human lifetime, the friction effect locally is more or less a constant. The disappearance of 50% of the power density at 100m a.g. is nothing to do with friction, it is a top down effect. A fall of 50% at 100m a.g., predicts a greater fall at 10m a.g. The Met Eireann figures are measured at 10m a.g.

I look forward to your calculations.

Paul Thomas Rowland · 14-02-2015 2:40pm

oppenheimer1 wrote: »

..I'm sorry but your conspiracy doesn't stack up I'm afraid.

Excuse me, but you ignore the published BnM wind data for the period 2002 - 2010 at Oweninny entirely. Do you accept that their published wind speeds conflict sharply with their production figures and the new wind atlas speeds for the site?

I see no evidence at Dublin Airport or Belmullet for decade long periods of low wind power. From the Dublin Airport graphics you can see that the period 2000 - 2009 is the windiest decade over the 66 years. So the new wind atlas is completely wrong about that location also. Can you accept that from the independent scientific Met Eireann data?

If you have any scientific evidence to support the disappearance of the wind resource anywhere in Ireland but at Oweninny in particular, please publish the data. So far, all of the evidence points in the opposite direction - that the wind resource is just as good today as it was in the 1990s or any other decade for which we have measurements.

Is there any independent scientific evidence, anything at all, that supports the new wind atlas view of future electricity production from wind across Ireland? That is my key issue.

oppenheimer1 · 15-02-2015 2:28am

Dermot McDonnell wrote: »

Here is the Met Eireann graphic for Dublin Airport 1944 - 2010. Do you see any sign of any large variations over that period? Any sign of half of the wind power disappearing in the 2000's?

Would you be so kind as to publish your figures, please?

No. I do not have a license to publish Met Eireann data. It is available to registered users to download from the website.

Dermot McDonnell wrote: »

It is inconceivable actually, as friction effects are more pronounced closer to ground. The topology of an area does not change significantly in a human lifetime, the friction effect locally is more or less a constant. The disappearance of 50% of the power density at 100m a.g. is nothing to do with friction, it is a top down effect. A fall of 50% at 100m a.g., predicts a greater fall at 10m a.g. The Met Eireann figures are measured at 10m a.g.

I look forward to your calculations.

Wind interaction with the ground is a complicated matter and unfortunately I do not have a qualification in fluid dynamics. Given the complexity of the process and the number of factors involved it is almost certainly a non linear process. If the process is non linear (in a similar manner to wind resistance) then you would see a damping effect at ground level - that is higher wind speeds would experience proportionally more reduction than a lower one thus pushing the the two averages closer together at ground level.

I don't think its fair to include values from Dublin airport. That met station is at a low level and sits in a sheltered position behind the Dublin mountains. Ground level observations for wind speed would not be much representative at levels 50-100m AGL without significant processing

New Government Report spells disaster for on-shore Wind Energy

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