Gameweek 14 Transfer Thread.

Current team is

Schmeichel (Myhill)
Williams Kolorov Dann (Subs Cédric/Francis)
Barkley Sanchez Ozil KDB Mahrez
Vardy Lukaku (Wilson)

Tempted to take hit to bring in Augero. Is it worth it, with his favourable home fixture.

Or do i just to Wilson to Kane and offload KDB.

I need to offload some of my defenders too. Kolorov and Williams and tempted to take out under performing KDB for Cayabe.

Head fried.

Took a big gamble on Sat Night, time will tell if if was a stupid one or not.


de Gea McCarthy
Bertrand Dawson Francis Coleman Bellerín
Drinkwater Özil Mahrez Barkley Coutinho
Kane Agüero Lukaku

Made the following transfers for -8:

Vardy --> Agüero
Sanchez --> Coutinho
KDB --> Barkley

Current ITB: 2.5m

I've had Sanchez and KDB from the start and had a lot of value built up in them. They were getting to the point where I wouldn't be able to drop them due to injury etc. from a financial point of view.

When I saw an opportunity where both were falling in value and under performing I took it.(I know how good Arsenals upcoming are, hopefully Özil will be enough of an insurance policy)

Hopefully Barkley and Coutinho will continue to rise in price and close the gap for me financially.

If things go well it will set me up to afford a team of serious heavy hitters.
If things go badly, this will probably be a pivotal point where I threw the season away.

Fingers and toes crossed :pac:

SlickRic wrote: »

You still have Wilson? Ouch.

Yep, thankfully my strong midfield has eased the pain of my 14man squad

iroced wrote: »

Here's my full team.

Myhill Hennessey
Smalling Bellerin Kolarov Bertrand Souaré
Sanchez KDB Mahrez Payet Wanyama
Kane Vardy Pellè

What do you guys think? Isn't it one of the "best" way to kill 2 birds with 1 single stone? Getting Agüero back before it makes things more complicated cash-wise and sorting out my over-expensive premium defense ? In addition, I keep both Sanchez & KDB who I still believe have an explosive FPL potential and it gives me back a bit of flexibility.

Now, of course, the huge con is CL football is to come. But with Pellè dropping tonight and Agüero's rising before his game in Torino (and maybe even Payet dropping in the meantime) I'd lose the flexibility this triple move would give me back.

Alot of similarities between your team and mine. On Sat I made the following changes for a -4.

Pelle----> Aguero
Smalling ---> Rojo
Kompany ----> Simpson

---

Gomez

---

Bellerin -- Rojo-- Souare

KDB -- Mahrez -- Sanchez -- Cabaye

---

Kane -- Aguero -- Lukaku

Happy enough for now. KDB will be get the road once Silva is fit

Benimar wrote: »

In GW8 Player A scored 16 points at home to a 'Top 4' team, since then he has one goal and no assists.

In GW8 Player B scored 14 points away to a 'Top 4' team, since then he has one goal and no assists.

Player A is Alexis Sanchez and Player B is BUIB!! I can't understand the 'love' for keeping Sanchez.

In the last 5 GWs Sanchez has been outscored by Ozil by 24 points.

Sanchez to Ozil is a logical move and not just to free up Aguero cash.

Very true. I think the big difference in this case though is fear.

I have let Sanchez go (have Ozil) and I feel fear. He is an explosive player and this is what sets him apart from the likes of BUIB et al.

Ozil is a solid choice and will continue to chip in with assists and perhaps an occasional goal. Sanchez on any given week is capable of a hat trick though.

I have my fingers crossed that he doesn't explode anytime soon.

FHFC wrote: »

"Regression to the mean"

BUIB had a hot run up to GW8, but his poor returns since are closer to his 'mean' over the last two seasons. Also he had his blank run over his 'gift' run of fixtures.

As Busts said, Sanchez record shows that his recent returns are well below his 'mean' despite promising performances. Could have had a goal and an assist on Sat. About to enter a great 3 fixture run.

Regression to the mean is my favourite Fantasy Footie principle this season.

Same reason Vardy simply cannot keep scoring every game. Same reason Aguero had to explode like he did v Newcastle.

Yaya Toure....

Done KDB and Bertrand -> Barkley and Woolscheid for a -4.
Current forward line is Lukaku, Vardy, Ighalo.

Is it worth a -8 to get Aguero in for Ighalo or should I wait til next week? I know Aguero could score well against Southampton but Ighalo could easily pick up points against Villa.

In fact, Ighalo has Villa, Norwich and Sunderland coming up whereas Vardy has United, Swansea, Chelsea...oh decisions

FHFC wrote: »

Yeah but his conversion rate must be up surely? Regression to the mean is about more than underlying stats as i understand/apply it. Its about whether the level of (good or bad) performance is likely to continue in comparison to the players 'normal' output, assuming no major variables have changed. Vardy has been very good for the past year or so, and has thrived under Ranieri so its not that uncharacteristic a level if performance granted, but the goal per game output is Suarez/Ronaldo/Messi rates and he's just not going to get 35 or 40 league goals. Surely!?!

Yup, up from 10.4% last season to 24.1% so far this. Pfft, Vardy for the European Golden boot :pac:

OneColdHand wrote: »

I'm considering using the AOA chip this week. Have a strong front 8, and if I go for Aguero I'll be switching one of my mids for cheapie, so may not have a strong front 8 for long.

Only thing is my defenders have decent fixtures:
Moreno - Swa (H)
Sagna - Sou (a)
Bellerin - Nor (a)

I could see Sagna benched for Zabaleta after his showing against Liverpool and I may be benching Bellerin now that Coq is out

Swiper the fox wrote: »

Indeed, but I don't see that continuing, he has been getting the assists for an awful lot of their goals but rarely threatens to score himself.
If he continues to pick up a lot of assists then I think Sanchez will be the one scoring many of the goals.
Sure we'll see how it goes, I'm firmly in the Sanchez camp, even for the extra layout, and like I said I think it's a backwards sideways transfer, how can you transfer Sanchez out for those fixtures when the manager can't afford to give him a rest.

It's a gamble. What we do know is that a jaded Sanchez has blanked in the last 4. His next 3 are very tasty, however there's a reasonable chance that Ox and Walcott are back for those.

So is Wenger (and he's a hard person to anticipate) going to ease them in and ease Sanchez out ? Or will he rest Sanchez to have him firing on all cylinders over the xmas flurry ? I'll leave it to better people than me to guess his mind.

Personally I transferred him and I fully intend getting him back later on. I'm gambling on him not making me regret it too much. If it doesn't pay off then so be it. If it does great.

These coin edge decisions are what makes this so interesting.

Lemlin wrote: »

We tend to be fairly similar in playing style. I haven't had a bad few weeks though because, after bringing Pelle in, I quickly admitted my mistake and dumped him. I also went for De Gea as my United defensive coverage.,

I went Payet to Coutinho this GW. Despite being Aguero's biggest fan on here I'd say, I am holding off on him for now. Could be a huge mistake and the game next week will be tough to watch but I can't justify dropping any of my three performing strikers. City play away midweek and Southampton won't be easy, partucularly coming off a loss in a game they would have expected to win.

You have four expensive defenders. I'd be getting rid of at least one if not two. Kolarov would be one for me. There's great value to be had in Woolscheid from Stoke or Danny Simpson for example.

It's easy for me to say it I'd probably go -12.

Kol to Wolly
Smalling to Simpson or cheap defender(you could bring in De Gea later then)
Payet to Ozil or Coutinho if fit
Pelle to Aguero

Yeah sticking with Pellè, getting rid of and back in Kolarov and getting Smalling over DDG cost me my ~80k downfall... Time to move on now and go back to my traditional 3-4-3.

Your 12 pts hits is tasty but I'm £0.3m short for it. My team value has gotten rubbish and I waited way too long on Ozil (£0.5m swing :eek:).

Simpson can be interesting as a 5th def though. I don't think I'll use him much since Leicester have been poison at the back (only 2 CS - Simpson got very lucky to be "awarded" a third one from an early substitution or injury and well his assist this week-end was his first one) but you can't refuse a playing £4.0m def in an in-form team. I'll just have to see if I need the extra £0.1m from Ryan Bennett or not...

To get Ozil this week I need to sell KDB...

What I can do for -8 this week is Pellè+Payet+Smalling -> Agüero+Deulofeu+Wollscheid. £0.3m left ITB.

Later I can do Myhill+KDB -> DDG+Özil.

Only concern is Stoke fixtures. Tough enough. And can they maintain their current CS rate? Sounds even more irrational than Vardy's form... Or did I miss something? Pulis moved to Stoke )?

Suarezistheman wrote: »

Alot of similarities between your team and mine. On Sat I made the following changes for a -4.

Pelle----> Aguero
Smalling ---> Rojo
Kompany ----> Simpson

---

Gomez

---

Bellerin -- Rojo-- Souare

KDB -- Mahrez -- Sanchez -- Cabaye

---

Kane -- Aguero -- Lukaku

Happy enough for now. KDB will be get the road once Silva is fit

Simpson is becoming a popular "enabler" .
I'm not sure about Rojo. Maybe DDG+Nyom is better than Gomes+Rojo? That said I'm not sure about anything lately :pac: and haven't been much right so you may be on for a glorious move .