Hurling Rankings

Fireball07 · 07-03-2014 12:46am

A very well-articulated post that sums up most of the points, I think. I agree with it wholeheartedly.

Martin567 · 07-03-2014 12:52pm

BobSloane wrote: »

Hey, this will probably be my last post on this as I've little to add that I haven't said already. I think you have made a good contribution to this thread fwiw. I probably won't be able to convince you that a lower ranked team should get more points for beating a higher ranked team even though I think for this to work effectively that would have to be the case, so I'll try:). This seems to be the biggest stumbling block for you. I'm sure hanelei would agree that going back to 2005 for ranking purposes is a bit pointless in 2014 but he did say he just started there because thats where his concrete data started.

Now you want the teams to get the exact same reward for beating each other - and cite the league as good reason for this. In div 1 all the teams seem capable of beating each other and play an equal number of games. This is almost true but not quite as some will play knockout stages and some will play a relegation play off. But I wouldn't get too bogged down about this extra game or two. The real problem is the championship.

Most posters in this thread, yourself included feel that the championship games should have a stronger weighting. But unlike the league the teams can have very different roads to travel. I'll take two teams from last year. Limerick and Clare. Limerick could have won the all ireland by playing four matches, two of them were played at home. And if they made the final they would have played the same team they played earlier. Thats 4 games, 2 at home, against a total of 3 teams.

Now lets look at Clare who they met in the semi final. They beat Waterford, lost to Cork, then beat Laois, Wexford and Galway before beating Limerick in the semi and then cork in the final. That 7 games(really 8 as the final was replayed), none at home(some counties just wont get to play home championship games) against 6 different teams.

This is nowhere near the easily comparable league games where everyone plays each other with an equal number of home and away games. And don't forget everyone wants the championship games to be given a stronger weighting.

Think again of Limerick last year. Going into the Tipp game Lim were probably ranked 6-8 Tipp probably 2-3. Limerick need extra acknowlegment because if there is just a flat score even after winning munster + ai semi and final they will probably still only be ranked around 4th or 5th - and yet be unbeaten all ireland champions. Tipp could win 2 qualifers and go out in the quarter final and end the year almost as far ahead of Limerick as they started - despite losing to them(and someone else) and Limerick getting to the final or even winning it! Now that would be an anomaly!

One more thing is the number of years to be used in the ranking system. You suggest two but I think three would be better- for no particular reason tbh. Well probably down to data points. Maybe with a weighting of 50% for last year, 30% for two years ago, 20% for three years ago or something like that.

tldr; give the lower ranked teams more ranking points when they beat a higher ranked team imo

Lots of excellent points there and I would agree with almost all of them. In particular, the differing routes that teams can take through the championship certainly does complicate things. My own preference would be to have a greater weight attached to the All Ireland Final than the semi finals, for the semis than the quarters, etc, all the way down. Nevertheless, it would take a lot of tweaking and it would be hard to arrive at a system that would satisfy everyone.

My particular difficulty with the one proposed here originally is that a truly robust system, designed to give an accurate picture at any one point, should not have the potential to be affected so drastically by a relatively insignificant league game in March.

Expanding it out, I believe that the stronger teams will not get the appropriate credit for their performances under this system. If a team wins 7 or 8 matches in succession against the teams immediately below them by 10 points or more, the ranking points they gain will be almost entirely wiped out by a single 1 point defeat. This will bring them back far closer in the rankings to every team and not just the team they have lost against. The reduced points available to the top team(s) for winning (and increased penalty for losing) would indicate to me that they are being measured against their own previous excellence rather than against the standard of the other teams. This is similar to the golf handicap system whereby the winner of the weekend competition is not the person with the best score but rather the person with the best score relative to their own previously established standard. While this may be appropriate in the context of a fun competition, nobody should think that the competition result says anything about the actual standards of the players involved.

So while I can see that the shorter/easier routes some teams might get in the championship should be factored in somehow, care would still be needed.

I think this has been a very interesting discussion. Most people will probably be glad that I can't think of anything else to add!;)

Godge · 07-03-2014 12:59pm

Martin567 wrote: »

Lots of excellent points there and I would agree with almost all of them. In particular, the differing routes that teams can take through the championship certainly does complicate things. My own preference would be to have a greater weight attached to the All Ireland Final than the semi finals, for the semis than the quarters, etc, all the way down. Nevertheless, it would take a lot of tweaking and it would be hard to arrive at a system that would satisfy everyone.

My particular difficulty with the one proposed here originally is that a truly robust system, designed to give an accurate picture at any one point, should not have the potential to be affected so drastically by a relatively insignificant league game in March.

Expanding it out, I believe that the stronger teams will not get the appropriate credit for their performances under this system. If a team wins 7 or 8 matches in succession against the teams immediately below them by 10 points or more, the ranking points they gain will be almost entirely wiped out by a single 1 point defeat. This will bring them back far closer in the rankings to every team and not just the team they have lost against. The reduced points available to the top team(s) for winning would indicate to me that they are being measured against their own previous excellence rather than against the standard of the other teams. This is similar to the golf handicap system whereby the winner of the weekend competition is not the person with the best score but rather the person with the best score relative to their own previously established standard. While this may be appropriate in the context of a fun competition, nobody should think that the competition result says anything about the actual standards of the players involved.

So while I can see that the shorter/easier routes some teams might get in the championship should be factored in somehow, care would still be needed.

I think this has been a very interesting discussion. Most people will probably be glad that I can't think of anything else to add!;)

The real question is whether the rankings at significant times of the year accurately reflect the general consensus. we will have to wait and see

Fireball07 · 07-03-2014 1:04pm

Martin567 wrote: »

Lots of excellent points there and I would agree with almost all of them. In particular, the differing routes that teams can take through the championship certainly does complicate things. My own preference would be to have a greater weight attached to the All Ireland Final than the semi finals, for the semis than the quarters, etc, all the way down. Nevertheless, it would take a lot of tweaking and it would be hard to arrive at a system that would satisfy everyone.

My particular difficulty with the one proposed here originally is that a truly robust system, designed to give an accurate picture at any one point, should not have the potential to be affected so drastically by a relatively insignificant league game in March.

Expanding it out, I believe that the stronger teams will not get the appropriate credit for their performances under this system. If a team wins 7 or 8 matches in succession against the teams immediately below them by 10 points or more, the ranking points they gain will be almost entirely wiped out by a single 1 point defeat. This will bring them back far closer in the rankings to every team and not just the team they have lost against. The reduced points available to the top team(s) for winning would indicate to me that they are being measured against their own previous excellence rather than against the standard of the other teams. This is similar to the golf handicap system whereby the winner of the weekend competition is not the person with the best score but rather the person with the best score relative to their own previously established standard. While this may be appropriate in the context of a fun competition, nobody should think that the competition result says anything about the actual standards of the players involved.

So while I can see that the shorter/easier routes some teams might get in the championship should be factored in somehow, care would still be needed.

I think this has been a very interesting discussion. Most people will probably be glad that I can't think of anything else to add!;)

It has been an interesting discussion, with points well-argued from all quarters.

I do see where you are coming from, and I don't think anyone is claiming that this system is perfect. A bit of tweaking could make it an even more accurate reflection of where teams are at.

But, at the same time, it's not like the rankings have any real bearing- people always have opinions at where different teams stand at different times, this is just an opibion formed from statistics. But I do think that this system gives a more accurate reflection than most.

I just can't help but thinking that a system that doesn't weight weaker teams performance would give an inaccurate ranking for a team that shows a serious sign of improvement in a short space of time... perhaps like Galway in 2012 or Dublin last year. They would have been hindered by previous poor form, and would sit below where they truly lie.

Martin567 · 07-03-2014 1:18pm

Fireball07 wrote: »

I just can't help but thinking that a system that doesn't weight weaker teams performance would give an inaccurate ranking for a team that shows a serious sign of improvement in a short space of time... perhaps like Galway in 2012 or Dublin last year. They would have been hindered by previous poor form, and would sit below where they truly lie.

My preference would be for a running two year ranking system with the greatest weight being given to the most recent championship. Under such a system, Galway in 2012 and both Dublin & Clare would get due credit in the rankings for their performances fairly quickly.

Fireball07 · 07-03-2014 1:20pm

Martin567 wrote: »

My preference would be for a running two year ranking system with the greatest weight being given to the most recent championship. Under such a system, Galway in 2012 and both Dublin & Clare would get due credit in the rankings for their performances fairly quickly.

If you ever get time, I would be interested in seeing how your ranking system would work out, in comparison to Hanalei's.

Hanalei · 07-03-2014 1:25pm

Fireball07 wrote: »

I just can't help but thinking that a system that doesn't weight weaker teams performance would give an inaccurate ranking for a team that shows a serious sign of improvement in a short space of time... perhaps like Galway in 2012 or Dublin last year. They would have been hindered by previous poor form, and would sit below where they truly lie.

I'd definitely accept that as a valid potential weakness of the system I used, however the flip side to that is consistent actual improvement is the only way to make gains in this system.

Dublin are a good example, they started to emerge as a strong team around 2008/09, and had a good championship run in 2009. However they didn't break into the top 6 until 2011 when they won the league and a solid championship moved them to 4th.

In 2009/10 I think they reached no higher than 8th, and I'd imagine that there are plenty who would have argued that they were at least a top 6 team in that period

General unrelated point: One reason I felt this would be a good system to use on hurling is that there is a strong similarity between hurling counties and rugby countries in terms of there being a core top 9 or so teams followed by a second tier of another 10 or so teams and a third tier below. Kilkenny are effectively the New Zealand equivalent, Tipperary are the South Africa, Cork are the Australia, Waterford are like Ireland and so on

Martin567 · 07-03-2014 1:35pm

Fireball07 wrote: »

If you ever get time, I would be interested in seeing how your ranking system would work out, in comparison to Hanalei's.

Thanks but it's unlikely I ever will. I do genuinely want to apologise again to Hanelei for derailing this thread somewhat. I understand that a lot of detailed work went into it and I would probably have been equally offended if someone came in and questioned the whole basis of that work.

With all the detail presumably on a spreadsheet, a bit of tweaking in a few places might not take too long. In particular, I would look at the double whammy of deducting points from the loser of a game. The better a team has been, the more they have to lose in any one game, which seems unfair.

Hanalei · 07-03-2014 1:43pm

Martin567 wrote: »

Thanks but it's unlikely I ever will. I do genuinely want to apologise again to Hanelei for derailing this thread somewhat. I understand that a lot of detailed work went into it and I would probably have been equally offended if someone came in and questioned the whole basis of that work.

With all the detail presumably on a spreadsheet, a bit of tweaking in a few places might not take too long. In particular, I would look at the double whammy of deducting points from the loser of a game. The better a team has been, the more they have to lose in any one game, which seems unfair.

Stop it, no need to be apologising :P, I got a bit bent out of shape over the use of the word "nonsense" but you can't be blamed for my sensitivities, I know you didn't mean any offense.

And I'll just echo Fireball07's statement that I too would be very interested in seeing your proposed system, hopefully you might find the time. I'd suggest maybe just trialling it on McCarthy Cup counties only to start with.

BobSloane · 08-03-2014 11:30pm

Martin567 wrote: »

In particular, I would look at the double whammy of deducting points from the loser of a game. The better a team has been, the more they have to lose in any one game, which seems unfair.

Yeah for sure that looks a bit dodgy

Expanding it out, I believe that the stronger teams will not get the appropriate credit for their performances under this system. If a team wins 7 or 8 matches in succession against the teams immediately below them by 10 points or more, the ranking points they gain will be almost entirely wiped out by a single 1 point defeat. This will bring them back far closer in the rankings to every team and not just the team they have lost against. The reduced points available to the top team(s) for winning (and increased penalty for losing) would indicate to me that they are being measured against their own previous excellence rather than against the standard of the other teams

I agree with you here in principle - but the thing is 7 or 8 games in the hurling season is maybe the whole season for a lot of teams. There are teams every year that play 5 league games and 2 or 3 championship games. I expect a ranking system that has a chance of keeping with the times to be quite volatile! One game, especially a championship game should make a pretty big difference. Weighing the championship games(ie munster final worth more than first round qualifier) as you suggested is probably neccessary as well. Another tricky proposition though. Looking forward to following the ranking and seeing what adjustments are made and what affect they have. Well done on being a good devils advocate type for the thread. You've changed my mind a bit on a few things

Hanalei · 09-03-2014 3:48pm

BobSloane wrote: »

Yeah for sure that looks a bit dodgy

I agree with you here in principle - but the thing is 7 or 8 games in the hurling season is maybe the whole season for a lot of teams. There are teams every year that play 5 league games and 2 or 3 championship games. I expect a ranking system that has a chance of keeping with the times to be quite volatile! One game, especially a championship game should make a pretty big difference. Weighing the championship games(ie munster final worth more than first round qualifier) as you suggested is probably neccessary as well. Another tricky proposition though. Looking forward to following the ranking and seeing what adjustments are made and what affect they have. Well done on being a good devils advocate type for the thread. You've changed my mind a bit on a few things

Weighting championship games is far from straight forward.

For example, I think it could be argued that Provincial championship games have no weight at all, they're not knockout!

I would think you have 4 bands of games in terms of importance-
Band 1; All-Ireland series (quarters, semis and final)
Band 2; All-Ireland qualifiers
Band 3; Provincial finals
Band 4; All other provincial games

And even within those 4 bands you can argue there are more sub-bands!
All-Ireland final should have more weight than a semi and so on.

Other questions;
All Munster teams are (and have been for at least 10 years) top 8 sides; is a Munster semi final win worth more than a Leinster semi final win?

And so on! Plenty of questions can be asked no matter what criteria are used, the perfect system just doesn't exist.

I suppose on what's been called the "double whammy" effect on my system- I've found that one defeat won't hurt a team in the long run, a team will only really suffer if they lose a few games to teams ranked lower.

Hanalei · 09-03-2014 4:06pm

Good win for Clare today- if Galway win or draw in Nolan Park then Clare will move to the top ahead of Kilkenny for the first time. A home defeat for Tipperary is set to move them down to 5th (maybe even 6th)

Could be a lot of changes from 3rd to 7th, very tightly bunched in terms of points, it may draw criticism when I post the table later

However, lets not forget- the reality is that we actually do have a lot of closely matched teams in the top 8 at present!

Hanalei · 09-03-2014 5:28pm

Position|(last week)|Team|Rating Point
1st |(1)|KILKENNY|90.28
2nd |(2)|CLARE|89.29
3rd |(4)+|CORK|86.51
4th |(3)-|TIPPERARY|86.13
5th |(6)+|WATERFORD|86.00
6th |(5)-|DUBLIN|85.52
7th |(7)|GALWAY|84.83
8th |(8)|LIMERICK|84.55
9th |(9)|WEXFORD|77.74
10th |(10)|OFFALY|75.08
11th |(11)|LAOIS|74.10
12th |(12)|ANTRIM|70.27
13th |(13)|CARLOW|66.58
14th |(14)|KERRY|65.84
15th |(16)+|DOWN|62.12
16th |(15)-|WESTMEATH|61.57
17th |(17)|DERRY|60.80
18th |(18)|LONDON|59.70
19th |(20)+|MEATH|57.29
20th |(19)-|KILDARE|56.99
21st |(21)|WICKLOW|56.92
22nd |(22)|MAYO|50.97
23rd |(23)|ARMAGH|48.41
24th |(24)|FINGAL|48.26
25th |(25)|DONEGAL|45.12
26th |(26)|ROSCOMMON|44.73
27th |(27)|TYRONE|40.26
28th |(28)|LOUTH|39.16
29th |(29)|MONAGHAN|38.71
30th |(30)|FERMANAGH|37.9
31st |(32)+|WARWICKSHIRE|34.77
32nd |(31)-|LONGFORD|32.89
33rd |(33)|SLIGO|31.64
34th |(34)|LEITRIM|26.04

Clare's win in Thurles edges them a little bit closer to Kilkenny who's win over Galway keeps 1st place in their hands.
Tipperary's defeat on home soil sees them swap places with Cork despite Cork not actually making a points gain.
Waterford's victory over Dublin sees the two counties swap positions.
Westmeath's poor season continues with a home defeat to Kerry, having started 2014 in 13th they now find themselves in 16th having dropped almost 4.5 ranking points so far this year.
And a rare away win for Warwickshire sees them move above Longford.

Fireball07 · 10-03-2014 12:23am

Did you notice what kind of trend home games in the Championship had on the rankings? For example, Waterford never play home or away in the Championship afaik, all their games are at neutral venues.

While Limerick played 2 home games last year and probably won't have any this year... it could probably cause a bit of a discrepancy because the home games are counted as an advantage.

Hanalei · 10-03-2014 12:49am

Fireball07 wrote: »

Did you notice what kind of trend home games in the Championship had on the rankings? For example, Waterford never play home or away in the Championship afaik, all their games are at neutral venues.

While Limerick played 2 home games last year and probably won't have any this year... it could probably cause a bit of a discrepancy because the home games are counted as an advantage.

I'll look into that, going to be mad busy until Thursday so I won't have the time til then. I remember being disappointed that Limerick didn't gain as much as I would have liked them to for the two Munster championship victories last year. (But I put that down to me just being biased!)

I'll post here again on Thursday with 2013 post league/pre-championship rankings and I'll post the impact the final standings after championship results had home advantage not been handicapped. And while I'm at it, I'll post final standings with a weighted points exchange applied for championship. Will be interesting to compare I guess. (I'll be limiting it to McCarthy counties to save time!)

blue note · 10-03-2014 8:56am

Fireball07 wrote: »

Did you notice what kind of trend home games in the Championship had on the rankings? For example, Waterford never play home or away in the Championship afaik, all their games are at neutral venues.

While Limerick played 2 home games last year and probably won't have any this year... it could probably cause a bit of a discrepancy because the home games are counted as an advantage.

In fairness home games are a massive advantage. Of the 9 1A games played so far this year the home team has one 8. And I don't have any championship stats to hand, but didn't Tipp go something like 80 years without a win in Cork?

Home advantage is a big difference in all sports, sometimes in GAA we pretend it's not. Probably because of overly sensitive dubs.

bren2001 · 10-03-2014 10:05am

blue note wrote: »

In fairness home games are a massive advantage. Of the 9 1A games played so far this year the home team has one 8. And I don't have any championship stats to hand, but didn't Tipp go something like 80 years without a win in Cork?

Home advantage is a big difference in all sports, sometimes in GAA we pretend it's not. Probably because of overly sensitive dubs.

I know! Its a disgrace we never get to play at home, but sure, what are you going to do?

Godge · 10-03-2014 12:30pm

bren2001 wrote: »

I know! Its a disgrace we never get to play at home, but sure, what are you going to do?

We play at home in the hurling but the footballers rarely get to play at Parnell Park.

laoisman11 · 14-03-2014 2:45pm

Hanalei, good work on the hurling ranking system - I was thinking of doing the same for the football.

There does seem to be a lot of work involved in setting up a ranking system and I'm wondering if you used code or VB in Excel to make data processing easier. I was playing around a bit with Excel just to get a template but what I have is very messy and is going to take ages to enter 5 or 6 years worth of games to get the final rankings. I'm not happy with my data verification either.

Any pointers would be much appreciated,

Cheers.

Hanalei · 16-03-2014 6:04pm

Position|(last week)|Team|Rating Point
1st |(2)+|CLARE|89.85
2nd |(1)-|KILKENNY|89.1
3rd |(6)+|DUBLIN|86.7
4th |(3)-|CORK|86.51
5th |(7)+|GALWAY|85.66
6th |(5)-|WATERFORD|85.44
7th |(4)-|TIPPERARY|85.3
8th |(8)|LIMERICK|83.9
9th |(9)|WEXFORD|78.08
10th |(10)|OFFALY|75.73
11th |(11)|LAOIS|73.76
12th |(12)|ANTRIM|70.27
13th |(14)+|KERRY|66.61
14th |(13)-|CARLOW|65.81
15th |(16)+|WESTMEATH|62.41
16th |(15)-|DOWN|62.12
17th |(17)|DERRY|60.80
18th |(18)|LONDON|59.70
19th |(19)|MEATH|57.70
20th |(21)+|WICKLOW|57.63
21st |(20)-|KILDARE|56.15
22nd |(22)|MAYO|50.26
23rd |(24)+|FINGAL|48.26
24th |(23)-|ARMAGH|48.00
25th |(26)+|ROSCOMMON|45.66
26th |(25)-|DONEGAL|45.21
27th |(27)|TYRONE|40.26
28th |(28)|LOUTH|39.23
29th |(29)|MONAGHAN|38.62
30th |(30)|FERMANAGH|36.97
31st |(31)|WARWICKSHIRE|34.77
32nd |(32)|LONGFORD|32.82
33rd |(33)|SLIGO|30.38
34th |(34)|LEITRIM|27.3

Clare hit top spot for the first time. Dublin's win over Kilkenny had a big impact, moving them up three places to third, and seeing Kilkenny fall from the top spot for the first time since 2011.
All positions changed in the top 7.
Note; 3rd to 7th covered by just 1.4 points. Very tight, reflects the reality of how wide open hurling is right now.
Tipperary down to 7th, they haven't been out of the top 4 since 2008.

laoisman11 · 17-03-2014 3:37pm

laoisman11 wrote: »

Hanalei, good work on the hurling ranking system - I was thinking of doing the same for the football.

There does seem to be a lot of work involved in setting up a ranking system and I'm wondering if you used code or VB in Excel to make data processing easier. I was playing around a bit with Excel just to get a template but what I have is very messy and is going to take ages to enter 5 or 6 years worth of games to get the final rankings. I'm not happy with my data verification either.

Any pointers would be much appreciated,

Cheers.

Hanalei, not sure if you saw my message or not, but don't worry about it, I got it sorted.

Will post the table for the football when finished.

Hanalei · 17-03-2014 4:44pm

Sorry laoisman11, only noticed your posts today, PM sent.

Hanalei · 21-03-2014 10:35pm

CrabRevolution · 21-03-2014 11:26pm

Hanalei wrote: »

Position|2007|2008|2009|2010|2011|2012|2013
1st |Kilkenny|Kilkenny|Kilkenny|Tipperary|Kilkenny|Kilkenny|Kilkenny
2nd |Waterford|Waterford|Waterford|Kilkenny|Tipperary|Tipperary|Clare
3rd |Cork|Cork|Tipperary|Galway|Waterford|Galway|Tipperary
4th |Limerick|Tipperary|Galway|Waterford|Dublin|Cork|Cork
5th |Galway|Galway|Cork|Cork|Galway|Waterford|Dublin
6th |Wexford|Limerick|Limerick|Offaly|Cork|Dublin|Waterford
7th |Tipperary|Clare|Clare|Wexford|Limerick|Clare|Galway
8th |Clare|Wexford|Wexford|Dublin|Wexford|Limerick|Limerick
9th |Offaly|Offaly|Offaly|Clare|Offaly|Offaly|Offaly
10th |Dublin|Dublin|Dublin|Limerick|Clare|Wexford|Wexford
11th |Antrim|Antrim|Laois|Laois|Antrim|Antrim|Laois
12th |Laois|Laois|Antrim|Carlow|Laois|Laois|Antrim
13th |Westmeath|Westmeath|Carlow|Antrim|Carlow|Carlow|Westmeath

Interesting how Antrim's lowest ranking (2010) came in the only year I can recall them actually winning 2 matches. Admittedly one was against Carlow but they also beat Dublin and reached the AI quarter final.

Is there any change to the points earned if the result is after extra time?

Hanalei · 22-03-2014 12:55pm

CrabRevolution wrote: »

Interesting how Antrim's lowest ranking (2010) came in the only year I can recall them actually winning 2 matches. Admittedly one was against Carlow but they also beat Dublin and reached the AI quarter final.

Is there any change to the points earned if the result is after extra time?

Antrim had a pretty poor league campaign in 2010, their two league victories against lower ranked teams (Carlow and Kildare) only earned modest points gains, but defeats to Westmeath, Down and Laois did some severe damage to their points rating. (Their defeats to Clare and Wexford had no impact on their points total)

So Antrim entered the 2010 championship down in 14th, 4 or 5 points off the top 12, wins over Carlow and Dublin undid a lot of the damage the poor league campaign had on their points, and they were just 0.4 points behind Carlow at the end of the year.

No change to points earned in event of extra time. I toyed with that idea, but didn't go for it in the end. Could probably have reduced the weighting a little bit alright.

Utopia Parkway · 22-03-2014 1:43pm

Hanalei wrote: »

Position|2007|2008|2009|2010|2011|2012|2013
1st |Kilkenny|Kilkenny|Kilkenny|Tipperary|Kilkenny|Kilkenny|Kilkenny
2nd |Waterford|Waterford|Waterford|Kilkenny|Tipperary|Tipperary|Clare
3rd |Cork|Cork|Tipperary|Galway|Waterford|Galway|Tipperary
4th |Limerick|Tipperary|Galway|Waterford|Dublin|Cork|Cork
5th |Galway|Galway|Cork|Cork|Galway|Waterford|Dublin
6th |Wexford|Limerick|Limerick|Offaly|Cork|Dublin|Waterford
7th |Tipperary|Clare|Clare|Wexford|Limerick|Clare|Galway
8th |Clare|Wexford|Wexford|Dublin|Wexford|Limerick|Limerick
9th |Offaly|Offaly|Offaly|Clare|Offaly|Offaly|Offaly
10th |Dublin|Dublin|Dublin|Limerick|Clare|Wexford|Wexford
11th |Antrim|Antrim|Laois|Laois|Antrim|Antrim|Laois
12th |Laois|Laois|Antrim|Carlow|Laois|Laois|Antrim
13th |Westmeath|Westmeath|Carlow|Antrim|Carlow|Carlow|Westmeath

Forgive me as I haven't followed how these ranking are arrived at but how are Kilkenny ranked number 1 in 2013 when they were a long way from the best team in 2013? Or Galway ranked number 3 in 2012 when they almost won the All-Ireland that year?

I presume there is a lot of weighting on the previous years that carries forward or something ?

Hanalei · 22-03-2014 2:51pm

Utopia Parkway wrote: »

Forgive me as I haven't followed how these ranking are arrived at but how are Kilkenny ranked number 1 in 2013 when they were a long way from the best team in 2013? Or Galway ranked number 3 in 2012 when they almost won the All-Ireland that year?

I presume there is a lot of weighting on the previous years that carries forward or something ?

There is no weighting at all on previous years, a teams ranking is calculated on a match by match basis.

Why were Kilkenny ranked number 1? Because the ranking system reflects long term consistency. Why should one average championship suddenly mean Kilkenny are no longer the best team? Clare won an All-Ireland, but up to last years championship they hadn't achieved anything of note, while Kilkenny started last years championship having won the previous two championships AND league campaigns. If Clare start consistently winning things, they will consistently be top. In fact, they presently are on the back of their strong league campaign, and if they win the league they will definitely be top heading into the championship.

Why Galway no higher than third in 2012? They were the second best team in one championship. What else had they acheived? In the league they contested the relegation play-off, had an average performance in 2011, and their 2013 campaign would also support the notion that they weren't the second best team in the country.

It's points exchange, it's not meant to reflect who did best in the previous championship, a team will only take top spot on the back of consistent achievement. Generally a teams results over the previous two years will determine where they lie in the ranking system, and the rankings are generally a rating of where teams lie in terms of consistently beating (or losing to) the teams immediately below (or above them)

I think what you have in mind is "Who did best in each particular year's championship?", that's not what this is designed to reflect. I mean, in sport in general, the team or athlete that wins the championship isn't necessarily always the best team. Most deserving team wins, not always the best!

No matter what system is used there will be imperfections I'm afraid, I mean look at 2009, Waterford still finished ahead of Tipperary (only just- by 0.01 point to be precise!) and I don't think anyone would have argued that Waterford were number 2 at that time, Kilkenny and Tipperary were by far and away the best two teams at that time.

In fact; here's a massive flaw- Before the All-Ireland final of 2009, KK were 1 and Tipp were 2 with Waterford 3. But the points exchange between Kilkenny and Tipperary after Kilkenny's win actually made Tipperary drop below Waterford. For those who argue I should weight championship matches this is a strong case for not doing so- had weighting been applied,the points lost by Tipperary in the final would have pushed them back into a comfortable third place rather than just 0.01 points behind without weighting.

Weighting is very fair on the team that wins but very unfair on the team that loses from what I've seen.

Utopia Parkway · 22-03-2014 3:14pm

Hanalei wrote: »

There is no weighting at all on previous years, a teams ranking is calculated on a match by match basis.

Why were Kilkenny ranked number 1? Because the ranking system reflects long term consistency.

Not having a go or anything but isn't that a bit of a contradiction? In that previous years results are taken into account when arriving at the rankings for the present. So even though one side might clearly be the best team in the country in the present, they may not be when the previous couple of years are taken into account as well.

Hanalei · 22-03-2014 3:32pm

Utopia Parkway wrote: »

Not having a go or anything but isn't that a bit of a contradiction? In that previous years results are taken into account when arriving at the rankings for the present. So even though one side might clearly be the best team in the country in the present, they may not be when the previous couple of years are taken into account as well.

There is no contradiction, it's a fact that I didn't weight previous years, but a teams ranking from the end of a previous year has to carry into the next season. I'm hardly going to start each new year with a clean slate!

The point of a ranking system is never to judge how good a team is right now, that is something which is impossible to measure. Ranking systems measure how good and consistent teams have been. (Something which is not impossible to measure, but is impossible to measure in an exact way!)

Like I said, no weighting on previous years, but the fact that teams play a relatively small amount of games means that in general a teams last 15 or so games will largely determine their ranking points, and in hurling that will span about two years.

And I know your not having a go! I should e-mail the IRB and get them to have a look at this thread, there has been some great debate about the merits of their ranking system in this thread.

RoscommonTom · 22-03-2014 3:48pm

Id have limerick and galway ahead a Waterford, fair played to you for putting it together

adrian522 · 22-03-2014 7:01pm

RoscommonTom wrote: »

, fair played to you for putting it together

+1 to this, a lot of work as obviously gone into this!

Hanalei · 23-03-2014 5:10pm

Position|(last week)|Team|Rating Point
1st |(2)+|KILKENNY|89.6
2nd |(1)-|CLARE|89.13
3rd |(4)+|CORK|86.51
4th |(5)+|GALWAY|86.38
5th |(7)+|TIPPERARY|86.14
6th |(3)-|DUBLIN|85.86
7th |(6)-|WATERFORD|84.94
8th |(8)|LIMERICK|84.19
9th |(9)|WEXFORD|78.08
10th |(10)|OFFALY|75.96
11th |(11)|LAOIS|73.47
12th |(12)|ANTRIM|70.04
13th |(13)|KERRY|67.22
14th |(14)|CARLOW|66.35
15th |(16)+|DOWN|62.38
16th |(15)-|WESTMEATH|61.87
17th |(17)|DERRY|60.64
18th |(18)|LONDON|59.09
19th |(20)+|WICKLOW|57.63
20th |(19)-|MEATH|57.44
21st |(21)|KILDARE|56.31
22nd |(22)|MAYO|51.87
23rd |(23)|FINGAL|48.26
24th |(24)|ARMAGH|46.39
25th |(25)|ROSCOMMON|45.66
26th |(26)|DONEGAL|45.66
27th |(27)|TYRONE|40.73
28th |(28)|LOUTH|38.53
29th |(30)+|FERMANAGH|38.44
30th |(29)-|MONAGHAN|37.15
31st |(31)|WARWICKSHIRE|33.32
32nd |(32)|LONGFORD|32.82
33rd |(33)|SLIGO|29.91
34th |(34)|LEITRIM|28.75

Kilkenny's big win over Waterford combined with Clare's failure to defeat Galway at Cusack Park ensures that Kilkenny retake first spot which Clare only held for one week.
All positions changed in the top 7 for a second weekend in a row.

savannahkat · 23-03-2014 10:12pm

Well done to you for taking the time to do this in the first place. It would be nice to see Carlow or laois break into the top ten and maybe they will before to long. Both are making huge strides.

Fireball07 · 23-03-2014 10:15pm

What points did each team start off on, Hanalei?

Hanalei · 23-03-2014 10:17pm

Fireball07 wrote: »

What points did each team start off on, Hanalei?

This year? Or at the beginning?

Fireball07 · 23-03-2014 10:29pm

Hanalei wrote: »

This year? Or at the beginning?

At the very beginning, when you first started calculations.

Hanalei · 23-03-2014 10:47pm

Fireball07 wrote: »

At the very beginning, when you first started calculations.

Not 100% certain on exact details, I've only recorded 2008 onwards.

I ordered teams from 1 to 33 based on achievement over the 2003 and 2004 seasons in the championship and league. Team 1 (Cork at the time having won '04 All-Ireland) started on 93, next would have been Kilkenny on 91, Waterford were third on 89, and so on, a two point step between each position being propped up by Cavan in 33rd on 29.

Warwickshire were added in at 34th, 2 points back, on 27 points. I had no information on them, so they went in last.

So an ordered list; 93, 91, 89, 87, 85, 83,.........., 31, 29, 27.

So the initial points very much down to my interpretation, the reason I didn't record totals from 2005, 2006 and most of 2007 was I was treating those years as years to iron out my initial assigned points, I think 3 years of results was enough to enforce a natural order of sorts.

Kerrydude1981 · 24-03-2014 4:56pm

Our lads are having a good year so far,big test against a full strength Carlow in the final,hopefully we will mange to get the win and put us in a good position before a crack off the Christy Ring Cup.Slowly getting back to the level we were at in the mid 90s.

Great thread btw

Hanalei · 30-03-2014 5:25pm

Position|(last week)|Team|Rating Point
1st |(1)|KILKENNY|89.82
2nd |(2)|CLARE|89.13
3rd |(4)+|GALWAY|88.00
4th |(6)+|DUBLIN|87.07
5th |(5)|TIPPERARY|86.88
6th |(3)-|CORK|85.77
7th |(7)|WATERFORD|83.73
8th |(8)|LIMERICK|82.57
9th |(9)|WEXFORD|77.86
10th |(10)|OFFALY|74.67
11th |(11)|LAOIS|73.47
12th |(12)|ANTRIM|71.33
13th |(13)|KERRY|67.22
14th |(14)|CARLOW|66.35
15th |(15)|DOWN|62.38
16th |(16)|WESTMEATH|61.87
17th |(17)|DERRY|60.64
18th |(18)|LONDON|59.09
19th |(19)|WICKLOW|57.63
20th |(20)|MEATH|57.44
21st |(21)|KILDARE|56.31
22nd |(22)|MAYO|51.87
23rd |(24)+|ARMAGH|46.39
24th |(23)-|FINGAL|48.26
25th |(25)|ROSCOMMON|45.66
26th |(26)|DONEGAL|45.66
27th |(27)|TYRONE|40.73
28th |(28)|LOUTH|38.53
29th |(29)|FERMANAGH|38.44
30th |(30)|MONAGHAN|37.15
31st |(31)|WARWICKSHIRE|33.32
32nd |(32)|LONGFORD|32.82
33rd |(33)|SLIGO|29.91
34th |(34)|LEITRIM|28.75

Hanalei · 15-04-2014 11:17am

Position|(last week)|Team|Rating Point
1st |(1)|KILKENNY|89.82
2nd |(2)|CLARE|89.13
3rd |(3)|GALWAY|88.00
4th |(4)|DUBLIN|87.07
5th |(5)|TIPPERARY|86.88
6th |(6)|CORK|85.77
7th |(7)|WATERFORD|83.73
8th |(8)|LIMERICK|82.57
9th |(9)|WEXFORD|77.86
10th |(10)|OFFALY|74.67
11th |(11)|LAOIS|73.47
12th |(12)|ANTRIM|71.33
13th |(13)|KERRY|68.13
14th |(14)|CARLOW|65.44
15th |(16)+|WESTMEATH|61.87
16th |(15)-|DOWN|60.90
17th |(17)|DERRY|60.64
18th |(19)+|WICKLOW|59.11
19th |(18)-|LONDON|59.09
20th |(20)|MEATH|57.44
21st |(21)|KILDARE|56.31
22nd |(22)|MAYO|51.87
23rd |(23)|ARMAGH|47.72
24th |(24)|FINGAL|46.93
25th |(25)|DONEGAL|46.89
26th |(26)|ROSCOMMON|44.68
27th |(27)|TYRONE|40.73
28th |(28)|LOUTH|38.53
29th |(29)|FERMANAGH|38.44
30th |(30)|MONAGHAN|37.15
31st |(31)|WARWICKSHIRE|33.32
32nd |(32)|LONGFORD|32.82
33rd |(33)|SLIGO|29.91
34th |(34)|LEITRIM|28.75

Hanalei · 15-04-2014 11:26am

Position|(last week)|Team|Rating Point
1st |(1)|KILKENNY|89.82
2nd |(2)|CLARE|89.13
3rd |(3)|GALWAY|88.00
4th |(4)|DUBLIN|87.07
5th |(5)|TIPPERARY|86.88
6th |(6)|CORK|85.77
7th |(7)|WATERFORD|83.73
8th |(8)|LIMERICK|82.57
9th |(9)|WEXFORD|77.86
10th |(10)|OFFALY|75.19
11th |(11)|LAOIS|73.47
12th |(12)|ANTRIM|71.33
13th |(13)|KERRY|67.61
14th |(14)|CARLOW|65.44
15th |(15)|WESTMEATH|61.87
16th |(16)|DOWN|60.90
17th |(17)|DERRY|60.64
18th |(18)|WICKLOW|59.11
19th |(19)|LONDON|59.09
20th |(20)|MEATH|57.44
21st |(21)|KILDARE|56.31
22nd |(22)|MAYO|51.87
23rd |(25)+|DONEGAL|48.40
24th |(23)-|ARMAGH|47.72
25th |(24)-|FINGAL|45.42
26th |(26)|ROSCOMMON|44.68
27th |(27)|TYRONE|40.73
28th |(28)|LOUTH|38.53
29th |(29)|FERMANAGH|38.44
30th |(30)|MONAGHAN|37.15
31st |(31)|WARWICKSHIRE|33.32
32nd |(32)|LONGFORD|32.82
33rd |(33)|SLIGO|29.91
34th |(34)|LEITRIM|28.75

Hanalei · 15-04-2014 11:51am

Victory for Galway in this weekends semi finals will see them move in to the top two, and Kilkenny move out of the top three- they have always been 1st or 2nd from day one way back since 2005.

Like Kilkenny, defeat for Clare will see them too move out of the top two and see Tipperary move in to the top three. A margin of defeat greater than 8 points for Tipp would see them move a place below Cork.

Taking the points gap as a translation of the margin of victory, the rankings at present predict a 2 point win for Kilkenny over Galway and 2 point win for Clare over Tipperary; results which would put a bit of breathing space between Kilkenny and Clare, and the chasing pack of Galway, Dublin, Tipperary and Cork.

Both Waterford and Limerick have dropped away slightly from the chasing pack as the league has progressed.

The points margins at the top are so tight, that the winner of the NHL will be guaranteed to head in to the championship as the number 1 ranked team.

Hanalei · 21-04-2014 11:12am

Position|(last week)|Team|Rating Point
1st |(1)|KILKENNY|90.64
2nd |(5)+|TIPPERARY|88.10
3rd |(2)-|CLARE|87.91
4th |(3)-|GALWAY|87.18
5th |(4)-|DUBLIN|87.07
6th |(6)|CORK|85.77
7th |(7)|WATERFORD|83.73
8th |(8)|LIMERICK|82.57
9th |(9)|WEXFORD|77.86
10th |(10)|OFFALY|75.19
11th |(11)|LAOIS|73.47
12th |(12)|ANTRIM|71.33
13th |(13)|KERRY|67.61
14th |(14)|CARLOW|65.44
15th |(15)|WESTMEATH|61.87
16th |(16)|DOWN|60.90
17th |(17)|DERRY|60.64
18th |(18)|WICKLOW|59.11
19th |(19)|LONDON|59.09
20th |(20)|MEATH|57.44
21st |(21)|KILDARE|56.31
22nd |(22)|MAYO|51.87
23rd |(23)|DONEGAL|48.40
24th |(24)|ARMAGH|47.72
25th |(25)|FINGAL|45.42
26th |(26)|ROSCOMMON|44.68
27th |(27)|TYRONE|40.73
28th |(28)|LOUTH|38.53
29th |(29)|FERMANAGH|38.44
30th |(30)|MONAGHAN|37.15
31st |(31)|WARWICKSHIRE|33.32
32nd |(32)|LONGFORD|32.82
33rd |(33)|SLIGO|29.91
34th |(34)|LEITRIM|28.75

Tipperary's victory over Clare sees them rise from 5th place up to 2nd.
Defeat in the final will see Tipperary move down to third, defeat by an 8 point margin would see them return to 5th.
Provided they avoid defeat by an 8+ point margin, Kilkenny will enter the championship in the number 1 spot. A big win for Tipp would see them claim top spot.

Hanalei · 29-04-2014 10:49am

Position|(last week)|Team|Rating Point
1st |(1)|KILKENNY|90.64
2nd |(2)|TIPPERARY|88.10
3rd |(3)|CLARE|87.87
4th |(4)|GALWAY|87.17
5th |(5)|DUBLIN|87.07
6th |(6)|CORK|85.77
7th |(7)|WATERFORD|83.72
8th |(8)|LIMERICK|82.57
9th |(9)|WEXFORD|77.86
10th |(10)|OFFALY|75.19
11th |(11)|LAOIS|73.47
12th |(12)|ANTRIM|71.33
13th |(13)|KERRY|67.61
14th |(14)|CARLOW|65.11
15th |(15)|WESTMEATH|61.87
16th |(16)|DOWN|60.90
17th |(17)|DERRY|60.64
18th |(19)+|LONDON|59.42
19th |(18)-|WICKLOW|59.11
20th |(20)|MEATH|57.44
21st |(21)|KILDARE|56.31
22nd |(22)|MAYO|51.87
23rd |(24)+|ARMAGH|47.72
24th |(23)-|DONEGAL|47.33
25th |(26)+|ROSCOMMON|45.75
26th |(25)-|FINGAL|45.42
27th |(27)|TYRONE|40.73
28th |(28)|LOUTH|38.53
29th |(29)|FERMANAGH|38.44
30th |(30)|MONAGHAN|37.15
31st |(31)|WARWICKSHIRE|33.32
32nd |(32)|LONGFORD|32.82
33rd |(33)|SLIGO|29.91
34th |(34)|LEITRIM|28.75

London's draw against superior ranked Carlow earned them enough points to move up a place.
Roscommon's victory over Donegal resulted in the Roscommon moving up a place and Donegal moving down a spot.
Antrim's victory over Westmeath had no effect on the ranking points.

laoisman11 · 10-05-2014 5:35pm

It appears that Hanalei has closed up shop, which is an awful shame as he had put a lot of work into this thread as well as into other topics.

If anyone is willing to continue his work on the hurling rankings, l can share an Excel template which makes the calculations of future rankings very easy.

laoisman11 · 12-05-2014 8:02am

Hanalei has contacted me from the after-life and has asked me to post his updated rankings and commentary, which I'm more than happy to do.

So........

*Week ending May 4th 2014*
Position|(last week)|Team|Rating Point
*1st *|(1)|KILKENNY|91.69
*2nd *|(3)*+*|CLARE|87.87
*3rd* |(4)*+*|GALWAY|87.17
*4th* |(5)*+*|DUBLIN|87.07
*5th* |(2)*-*|TIPPERARY|87.05
*6th *|(6)|CORK|85.77
*7th* |(7)|WATERFORD|83.72
*8th* |(8)|LIMERICK|82.57
*9th* |(9)|WEXFORD|77.86
*10th *|(10)|OFFALY|75.19
*11th* |(11)|LAOIS|73.61
*12th* |(12)|ANTRIM|72.01
*13th* |(13)|KERRY|67.61
*14th* |(14)|CARLOW|64.43
*15th *|(15)|WESTMEATH|61.87
*16th* |(17)*+*|DERRY|60.64
*17th* |(16)*-*|DOWN|59.85
*18th* |(18)|LONDON|59.42
*19th* |(19)|WICKLOW|59.13
*20th *|(20)|MEATH|58.49
*21st* |(21)|KILDARE|56.29
*22nd* |(22)|MAYO|52.16
*23rd* |(23)|ARMAGH|47.43
*24th* |(24)|DONEGAL|47.33
*25th* |(25)|ROSCOMMON|46.41
*26th* |(26)|FINGAL|45.43
*27th* |(27)|TYRONE|40.73
*28th* |(29)*+*|FERMANAGH|39.23
*29th* |(28)*-*|LOUTH|38.52
*30th* |(30)|MONAGHAN|36.49
*31st* |(32)*+*|LONGFORD|33.71
*32nd* |(31)*-*|WARWICKSHIRE|32.54
*33rd* |(33)|SLIGO|29.91
*34th* |(34)|LEITRIM|27.86

The only remarkable thing about last weekends was Tipperary's defeat somewhat harshly costing them three positions and dropping them from 2nd to 5th. As it was in Semple, I gave Tipp the home advantage points, so that made it a game Tipp were "expected" to win. Had I treated it as a neutral venue they would only have moved to third with Clare moving back to second. Again though, the points difference from 2nd to 5th is minimal

bren2001 · 12-05-2014 9:23am

laoisman11 wrote: »

The only remarkable thing about last weekends was Tipperary's defeat somewhat harshly costing them three positions and dropping them from 2nd to 5th. As it was in Semple, I gave Tipp the home advantage points, so that made it a game Tipp were "expected" to win. Had I treated it as a neutral venue they would only have moved to third with Clare moving back to second. Again though, the points difference from 2nd to 5th is minimal

I don't know if it was you or Hanalei but the game was in a neutral venue. I think we should let the GAA decide whether it is home or away. The fact that Tipp also play their home games in Semple should be irrelevant. Stuff like this will make it very hard for Tipp to reach the top since most of their championship games will be there.

Martin567 · 12-05-2014 9:34am

bren2001 wrote: »

I don't know if it was you or Hanalei but the game was in a neutral venue. I think we should let the GAA decide whether it is home or away. The fact that Tipp also play their home games in Semple should be irrelevant. Stuff like this will make it very hard for Tipp to reach the top since most of their championship games will be there.

If the same teams meet in the final again next year, it will be held in Nowlan Park. As this is the very definition of a home & away agreement, I don't know how anyone can claim that the venues are neutral.

bren2001 · 12-05-2014 9:39am

Martin567 wrote: »

If the same teams meet in the final again next year, it will be held in Nowlan Park. As this is the very definition of a home & away agreement, I don't know how anyone can claim that the venues are neutral.

Could have sworn it was on in Semple every year. Don't know where I got that notion. (in fairness more often than not it is). In which case, disregard what I said.

Realt Dearg Sec · 12-05-2014 10:03am

bren2001 wrote: »

Could have sworn it was on in Semple every year. Don't know where I got that notion. (in fairness more often than not it is). In which case, disregard what I said.

A few years ago the President of the GAA suggested that every year, regardless of who's in the final, the League final should be in Thurles. It was a stupid idea, I think, but the idea that the final SHOULD always be in Thurles is out there. But in the case of KK V Tipp it's a home and away agreement.

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