Republic and Northern Ireland will eventually be reunited, predicts Enda Kenny

smcgiff wrote: »

Looks like he forgot to mention the most likely reunification scenario - the ROI rejoining the UK

Not a chance. Unionism in the south is virtually non-existent.

I'm a Republican, and obviously this is something I aspire to see. I acknowledge however that it won't happen in the very near future. I do think it's inevitable at some point however. The economics of both states will need to improve, and cross-border co-operation will need to increase more and more, until it's united in most matters - all but in name.

I remember a Unionist poster posting on here a while back, stating that the southern state was built up to be a boogey man for him until he moved to Dublin - which eventually wiped out any negative notions he had. I think many Unionists have an unfair perception of the south, and don't understand that the majority of people have zero ill-will towards them. Unfortunately, knuckle-draggers are often see as the epitome of 'Irishness'.

More cross-community work, more respect of each other's culture and views... More cross-border operations, bodies, etc...

I believe it will happen but it's difficult to predict when. One thing is for sure - it will have to come with a big economic dividend for the north and that is at least a generation away.

smcgiff wrote: »

Looks like he forgot to mention the most likely reunification scenario - the ROI rejoining the UK

After Hours >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

thebman wrote: »

Yet to explain why it is more likely.

Presumably because you have no evidence...

Seriously?

I agree there is little active unionism in the ROI, but there is far from enough Nationalism in NI to support reunification with the south. There is strategic voting by catholics for the SDLP and SF to better their community, but they'd run a mile if there was a vote on whether to unite with the ROI politically. Economically the ROI is in a very bad condition. NI's economy is very much supported by GB, and the vast majority in the north will not upset the apple cart.

I presume everyone interested enough in this thread are aware of the polls in the north re constitutional preferences.

Enda is a politician - he said something he thought would be popular.

I don't think the island of ireland is likely to join the uk, but north south union is even less likely. The partition of ireland is coming up to its first century - it's bedded in.

smcgiff wrote: »

I agree there is little active unionism in the ROI, but there is far from enough Nationalism in NI to support reunification with the south. There is strategic voting by catholics for the SDLP and SF to better their community, but they'd run a mile if there was a vote on whether to unite with the ROI politically. Economically the ROI is in a very bad condition. NI's economy is very much supported by GB, and the vast majority in the north will not upset the apple cart.

I completely understand the northern nationalists not being interested in a united Ireland at the min. We have nothing to offer them. But i think that will change someday.

I think ultimately we will see reunification, but not until we reach a point when nobody cares.
Of course most people don't really care now and the difference in standard of living / lifestyle between Ireland and the UK is pretty minimal, so it might not be that far away.

People seem to be under the impression that reunification is a short-term goal. It's never a short-term thing, and shouldn't be thought of as a short-term thing. Economic issues are never long-term, so they are ultimately irrelevant. The economics of Ireland and Britain will strengthen again in time.

Reunification is a long-term goal, and would require support from both Ireland and indeed Britain to make it function, with some compromises to certain issues (Such as maintaining the ability to hold a British passport for Unionists). I don't really think being part of the Commonwealth (as often as it is suggested as a compromise) is actually something Unionists give a toss about in any meaningful way.

I could see the process working as follows.

Ireland would have two devolved parliaments. One in the north (potentially including the other 3 counties of Ulster - and one in the south.) This would ensure that Unionists would still have a say at local/regional issues, and wouldn't feel overwhelmed by the other 'side'. They could still ensure their culture and so forth is preserved and receives fair funding regionally. A national Government could have it's parliament in a generally neutral town or city. It wouldn't necessarily have to be in Dublin. The national parliament would manage issues of national security, economic issues, trade, public relations, defence, etc... All the other local/regional issues could be ironed out in the devolved parliaments.

The transition would have to be supported by Britain. Perhaps a 10 year transitional period, where both Britain and Ireland engage in dual-governance of the north and work very strongly together. Open dialogue during this period would be critically important.

So what sort of compromises could we expect to make?

Ireland and Britain could engage in a loosely-affiliated political union (Think EU-lite). Such a union might focus on trade, education, sporting games, cultural ties, and perhaps the economic stability of both nations. Common defence might also be part of the solution, but Ireland would absolutely need to maintain a neutral position with respect to war. Ireland would not be part of the UK, it would be it's own individual nation. Inter-governmental affairs would be worked out a much more efficient and fair way than the EU, but ultimately - a sort of EU-lite model as I previously mentioned could be the foundation for the political affiliation. (Notice I said affiliation, rather than union. That's critically important in order for it to work)

What would this do for Unionists? It would give them the assurance that they still maintain their cultural links with Britain, but also strengthen their links with the Irish nation.

Such a plan would need to be given seriously thought, and the specifics down to the finest detail would need to be ironed out.

No, I haven't. Republican Sinn Féin support a violent campaign, that would rid the British presence in Ireland. I support a peaceful campaign that seeks to listen to all communities involved. I only support two regional parliaments, not provincial parliaments. I have detailed some compromises that could be entertained - RSF do not contain the word compromise in their vocabulary. I'm a realist, not a dreamer. I'm putting forward what I feel is the best solution, that will have the greatest success of achieving unification while preserving independence.

gallag wrote: »

So you believe the loyalist paramilitary forces could not mirror the role the Ira played. What if loyalists started a boming campaign of civilian and economic targets like the ira did, could the Irish economy support a new "troubles"

It's very unlikely they could mirror the role the IRA played without significant support within the Unionist population, at least as strong as the IRA gained after Bloody sunday, the question is where would that support for a return to violence come from?
We can see today how limited and ineffective the remenants of the IRA have become when starved of community support for their actions.
Could Loyalist Paramilitaries function better without community support, its quite unlikely.

There may be atempts by extreamist factions to start a seperatist campaign of violence,but there is no reason to assume that it would be anything more than the current attempts by the RIRA/CIRA/I cant believe its not the IRA factions in the absence of support for a return to violence within Unionist communities.

gallag wrote: »

But still, and I realise I could be more eloquent here, a few arseholes with some semtex could do a lot of damage. I also think you might be underestimating the loyalist/unionist community's determination to remain British and their hate for all things Irish. Don't be fooled into thinking this will just be a rabble of fools falling from the bars, many years of military, think UDR, RUC and army service experience would be there.


I think it is more likely Ireland's security budget would need bolstered.

True, But again, disident republicen groups have plenty of semtex. And most of their leadership have plenty of exdperience of the IRA when it was at its height. Yet they lack the community support to carry out any kind of sustained campaign. The population do not want a return to violence, The disidents know they would quickly loose any support they have if they carried out attacks like were common in the 70's, Omagh was very nearly a death blow for the dissident movement.

The North was ready to erupt into violence in the 60's and Bloody Sunday was the spark that unleashed it. There are many reasons for this, and for why IRA were as strong as they were during the troubles, the Nationalist community had many greviances and suffered much descrimination, it was never simply about partition.
That is not the North today, In the case of a UI comming about through peaceful means, the place of Unionists in the new state would have to be negioated between both governments, along with the leading Unionist parties.
As long as the average Unionist feels they can make a life for themselves in the new state, while they might not be happy with the constitutional situation, they will not support violence.

In the absence of such support, it is very unlikely that Extreamist Loyalists will have any more success in starting a new troubles than the dissidents are.

Of course the security budget would need to increase, every budget would need to increase, you are dealing with a larger population in the case of a United Ireland. Reviniue would also increase, though there would need to be a period of adjustment to sort out the cost of duplication north and south.

To the person who asked why would the UK help with this period of adjustment, Ireland is one of their Major trading partners, and a United Ireland even more so, it is very much in their interest to ensure it is stable and successful.