Tour de France Stage 5 – July 9th, Ypres - Arenberg **Unmasked Spoilers**

This will absolutely be the most feared flat stage in the Tour de France for many, many years. And it gets worse - there is about a 60% chance of rain. Regardless, this stage is going to be bananas.

The first 55km are relatively straight-forward, the forecasted winds are not particularly strong (below 30kph) so there should not be any splits at this point.

10 km after entering France, the peloton reaches Roubaix. 30 km later, the riders start on the first of nine pave sections. On the contrary to Paris-Roubaix, the first section today is the notorious Carrefour de l'Arbre. The riders will only do 1.1 km on these cobblestones compared to the 2.1 km in Paris-Roubaix. Still, it will be enough to make a huge selection already. The fight for positions before reaching this point will be furious and the speed extremely fast. All the GC riders will want to be near the front. The weather forecast shows rain, meaning it would be close to a miracle if everybody stayed upright on this difficult section.

The next very difficult pave section is Mons-en-Pévèle. In Paris-Roubaix, this section is 3 km long. Again, today, the riders will only have to suffer for 1 km. For the pure climbers, however, this one kilometer will probably feel like 10. Just a few minutes later, it’s time for the Bersée section. The peloton will most likely already be in pieces at this point. After this, there are only 40 km to go but the riders still have to overcome four difficult pave sections.

The most demanding one is Hornaing, starting with 15.5 km to go. In Paris-Roubaix, this section has the maximum five stars and the riders will have to do all 3.7 km. This is a key moment. The classic specialists without a GC rider to look after will most likely try to put in a strong attack here. However, don’t forget that this is a very short stage, only 155.5 km, meaning the riders will be much fresher than in Paris-Roubaix where they have another 100 km in the legs. Therefore, it will be much harder to drop your rivals.

GCN's excellent preview video show the difficulty of this route better than any words can



It is extremely likely that there will be separate battles for the stage win and the GC tomorrow.

For the stage win, Fabian Cancellara can go into tomorrow considering himself the favourite, but there will be many who will push him close. Peter Sagan, John Degenkolb and Aleksander Kristoff are all favoured by the bookies, but it would be senseless to look past Lars Boom for the stage win. Sep Van Marcke and Greg Van Avermaet are also guaranteed to be there or thereabouts.

In the GC, both Contador and Froome have a range of quality support to get them over the numberous difficult cobble sections. Bernie Eisel and Geraint Thomas will be excellent lieutenants for Froome tomorrow, while Contador has three quality cobbles riders in Michael Morkov, Daniele Bennati, and Matteo Tosatto. I think if either rider has the advantage tomorrow, it must be Contador. Froome's injuries picked up today, perceived lower bike handling skills, and Bjarne Riis's superior tactical nous will all count against the sky team.

Oddschecker: Cancellara 5/2, Sagan 11/2, Degenkolb 13/2, Kristoff 15/2, Vanmarcke 11/1, Van Avermaet 12/1, Boom 28/1


Have fun, and stay safe