Thunderstorm/Convective Watch - Spring/Summer 2012

Iancar29 · 13-03-2012 1:59pm #1

Thought i'd get this one started off.

Current model runs showing some slight potential for a view rumblies on Sunday [ MOTHER'S DAY ! ] .. Fairly far out yet still but will be interesting to see how it unfolds

Cape values varie with some models showing up some tasty 400j/kg !

But Then some more lower values too ..
viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120313;time=06;ext=102;file=mlcape;sess=046df07ac11df5901a13764a678ff362;

Lifted index ( the trigger mechanism ) is alright with some negative values in the NW.
viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120313;time=06;ext=102;file=ukcapeli;sess=046df07ac11df5901a13764a678ff362;

viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120313;time=06;ext=102;file=ukcapeli;sess=046df07ac11df5901a13764a678ff362;

And the South later on in the afternoon..

viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120313;time=06;ext=105;file=ukcapeli;sess=046df07ac11df5901a13764a678ff362;

viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120313;time=06;ext=105;file=ukcapeli;sess=046df07ac11df5901a13764a678ff362;

So ye, one to keep an eye on folks!

skipz · 14-03-2012 10:27am

This is more like it, never mind that snow lark

Redsunset · 15-03-2012 10:57am

St Patrick' s day is looking like becoming somewhat of a washout for many. There will be alot of parades around the country and some heavy thunder showers could be in the mix. Latest spanish hirlam suggest low pressure coming in to the west bringing lots of unpleasantness in the form of rain/hail.

Canadian model looking similar

There is still model uncertainty but whatever way we look at it, expect much cooler and wet conditions.

Iancar29 · 15-03-2012 1:55pm

Yeah looks like Sunday's potential has now moved to Saturday with the south as mentioned most at risk for any thundery showers.But still heavy showers elsewhere too .

Would be funny though... if this was to somehow UPGRADE Considerably what would they do for like the parades?... i know its a very very low chance , but the thought of it alone is interesting. Would they risk safety right up to when they hear thunder? ... hmmmmmm

Redsunset · 15-03-2012 9:16pm

Could be a very interesting day bar no downgrades of course. Hail watchers at the ready.

Iancar29 · 15-03-2012 9:40pm

redsunset wrote: »

Could be a very interesting day bar no downgrades of course. Hail watchers at the ready.

Feck it anyways!.... now i wish i had the day off work!!! ... Typical!

ITs looking interesting indeed, shall look forward to what Rte hav to say now... ill go for them saying.. " St.Patricks day will be very unsettled , with some heavy showers in places , with even some hail showers too . " THey wont scare us all with the thought of some thunder on a National holiday such as Paddys day! ha :rolleyes:

Redsunset · 16-03-2012 5:07am

Holding strong, if anything a slight upgrade, question is will it be gone in next run

Headlines

St Patrick's Day Thunderstorms create dazzling display parading across Ireland.

Iancar29 · 16-03-2012 1:55pm

I Dont know what to make of this buts its kinda scary! ha
HOpefully its the potential thundery showers!

:eek:

Iancar29 · 16-03-2012 11:40pm

THEY MUST BE WATCHING US!! haaha!
NOt a MENTION of Thundery showers only now...

Met Éireann:
St. Patrick's Day will start cold and sunny and while sunny spells will continue through the day there will be some heavy rain or hail showers as well scattered across the country with a risk of isolated thundery downpours. Highest temperatures 6 to 9 degrees in light breezes.

HOpefully now we dont ALL end up being wrong! ha

But seriously..... parades..... lightning?.... not a good mix...

Redsunset · 17-03-2012 1:44am

Tell you what, I think tomorrow has the makings of right good downpours across the southern part of the country then pushing into the Midlands and east which are capable of spot flooding in most intense cloudbursts. Parades could be disrupted so I'm whipping out the Warning Sign.

Iancar29 · 17-03-2012 11:22am

Looks like every is moving quite slow ,

Most of the potential along the south coast for the time being but as the day progresses, if enough land heating occurs , showers go grow further while moving easterly then..

Im off to works so ill shall be keep a close eye on the radar throughout the day.

HAPPY PADDYs DAY EVERYONE ... HAV A GOOD ONE!

highdef · 17-03-2012 12:17pm

Very heavy shower slow moving over the Leixlip/Celbridge and also clipping the Maynooth area, according to net weather radar which is showing oranges reds and pinks. Looking out my window in the direction and the sky is jet black. Seems to be moving very very slowly northwards. Can anyone out that way confirm some action?

MiNdGaM3 · 17-03-2012 12:22pm

The predicted skew t for Dublin.
Cape of 329J

17-03-2012 12:35pm

highdef wrote: »

Very heavy shower slow moving over the Leixlip/Celbridge and also clipping the Maynooth area, according to net weather radar which is showing oranges reds and pinks. Looking out my window in the direction and the sky is jet black. Seems to be moving very very slowly northwards. Can anyone out that way confirm some action?

its bucketing down here, parts of my garden are white from the hail. Was extremely heavy

Didnt think it was possible, but coming down heavier, lots of hail.

blackius · 17-03-2012 12:51pm

Very heavy hail sw of arklow, ongoing for 25 mins or so.
Flat calm and it doesn't look like wanting to clear in a hurry.
Saw plenty Cb's while this was coming in.
Pretty dark!

highdef · 17-03-2012 1:05pm

Well according to netweather radar, Lucan (especially the western end) appears to have been right under the core of that shower. It's so slow moving that it looks like it's probably only moving off now. If the radar is to be believed then a LOT of precipitation has fallen over the Lucan/Leixlip area in the past hour or so

17-03-2012 1:11pm

highdef wrote: »

Well according to netweather radar, Lucan (especially the western end) appears to have been right under the core of that shower. It's so slow moving that it looks like it's probably only moving off now. If the radar is to be believed then a LOT of precipitation has fallen over the Lucan/Leixlip area in the past hour or so

it was the most exciting weather Ive had for a while

thomasj · 17-03-2012 1:13pm

Wow! Thats some shower! Have had a heavy prolonged hail shower for the last 5-10 minutes! Only letting up now. Am in clonsilla.

17-03-2012 1:22pm

pretty sure Im hearing some thunder, any one else/?

Jim_Kiy · 17-03-2012 1:25pm

Rumble of thunder-hail stones

thomasj · 17-03-2012 1:27pm

Just saw a quick flash followed by the loudest rumble of thunder i have heard since the thundersnow we had last year. Alarms now going off.

thomasj · 17-03-2012 1:32pm

thomasj wrote: »

Just saw a quick flash followed by the loudest rumble of thunder i have heard since the thundersnow we had last year. Alarms now going off.

And again just now, hail getting heavy again!

Iancar29 · 17-03-2012 1:32pm

Feck it anyways!! I cannot believe I'm
Missing thiss!!!

highdef · 17-03-2012 1:33pm

A new cell has just popped up west of the Red cow and is also moving northwards. Looks like areas in a line from the M50 westwards (possibly building est of the M50 too) from around tallaght northwards towards Blanchardstown and beyond are at risk from extremely heavy precipitation in the next while. The parade is Dublin is missing out by only a few kilometres!!!

Currently lovely here in north Kildare with the sun beaming down and steam coming off the roads!!! lots of convection all round though.

RobbingBandit · 17-03-2012 1:35pm

Slight shower in Ballymun at the moment,but I did just hear thunder,damn I love thunder.

17-03-2012 1:36pm

I know nothing about this stuff, but I just saw what I think is fork lightning over blanchardstown, looked like it was over the blanchardstown centre looking at it from Hartstown direction.

Larbre34 · 17-03-2012 1:37pm

Not far from you Thomas J. the thunder is startling, closest i ever heard to hollywood sound effects outside of Florida. Moderate hail has given way to tropical torrents of rain. i see on TV the city centre us escaping

delw · 17-03-2012 1:38pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

Feck it anyways!! I cannot believe I'm
Missing thiss!!!

reports of thunder in finglas Ian,have you heard any?

Jim_Kiy · 17-03-2012 1:39pm

Hopefully the start of an interesting day-strike recorded over Dublin..
I heard 3 claps of thunder in all..seems to brightening up now.Missed most of the precip.

http://www.pjbartlett.co.uk/Sferics.htm

17-03-2012 1:40pm

yay, we got some interesting weather WOO HOO !!!! The monotony has been broken.

:D:D

thomasj · 17-03-2012 1:40pm

Another belt of thunder just now!

FunkSoulSista · 17-03-2012 1:44pm

Dark grey skies and a lovely rumble in Finglas!

thomasj · 17-03-2012 1:46pm

thomasj wrote: »

Another belt of thunder just now!

Its like a monsoon of hail falling at the moment!

Larbre34 · 17-03-2012 1:46pm

The hail is back and is now 2-3cms deep on the ground, falling off the cars like discarded slush puppies. seems to be easing a bit. The roads must be lethal, amazed its not melting faster

Iancar29 · 17-03-2012 1:47pm

In work can't hear much but just the blurred rumble

... I'm sneaking outside for a few mins now though! Hehe!

YOUS ALL BETTER BE GETTING SOME PHOtos!!! Ha

Iancar29 · 17-03-2012 1:48pm

The clouds are loving southwards ?! ...

... Rotation? Ha

Redsunset · 17-03-2012 1:50pm

Here's your lightning lads,
i_dag_na.html

17-03-2012 1:51pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

In work can't hear much but just the blurred rumble ... I'm sneaking outside for a few mins now though! Hehe!

YOUS ALL BETTER BE GETTING SOME PHOtos!!! Ha

thomasj · 17-03-2012 1:51pm

And as quickly as it started it stopped!

Nolimits · 17-03-2012 2:03pm

My driveway a few minutes ago

And the street in general

highdef · 17-03-2012 2:12pm

Jesus, that's crazy stuff there!!!

And here is a DCC traffic camera view of the M50/N4 interchange!!!

Wild Bill · 17-03-2012 2:24pm

Zip here yet in now cloudy Sandyford - I thought I heard some thunder in the distance earlier!

Have camera at the ready for a foot of hail

!

There is a (very light) breeze coming from the East

Iancar29 · 17-03-2012 2:24pm

Any cloud pics lads ? I got one or 2 from here in work but can post them
Till later at least when I get home .
Keep an eye out for Mammatus clouds on the underneath of the anvil clouds too!

nudger · 17-03-2012 2:35pm

Lashing down hail for 20 mins now it's pissing rain (Ashtown), Changed over to look at the parade to see what was happening there and the sun is shining.

Wild Bill · 17-03-2012 2:37pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

Any cloud pics lads ? I got one or 2 from here in work but can post them

Nothing very spectacular...but looking NW from here I can see the storm producing all that hail in Clonsilla!

Jim_Kiy · 17-03-2012 2:48pm

nudger wrote: »

Lashing down hail for 20 mins now it's pissing rain (Ashtown), Changed over to look at the parade to see what was happening there and the sun is shining.

For how long? Some dark clouds showing there ..the 'mini cloud maker' is rather unnecessary for today.
Pissing down here at the mo..

Wild Bill · 17-03-2012 3:08pm

Jim_Kiy wrote: »

..the 'mini cloud maker'

H2UMrsRobinson · 17-03-2012 3:38pm

looking very dark out there but no thunder, hail or anything interesting over here in D3.

Jim_Kiy · 17-03-2012 3:51pm

Wild Bill wrote: »

Was a float by some folks from inishowen that was on the parade coverage at the time of the storm..seems they drew inspiration from Kate Bushes Cloudbusting video!
They had a snow machine as well:eek:

ZX7R · 17-03-2012 4:59pm

There has been 3 or 4 rumbles of thunder i heard them while out walking in suncroft co kildare,they seem to be near athy i think very black clouds that direction.... Leading edge of cloud looks very anvil like in aperance...

Iancar29 · 17-03-2012 5:32pm

ZX7R wrote: »

There has been 3 or 4 rumbles of thunder i heard them while out walking in suncroft co kildare,they seem to be near athy i think very black clouds that direction.... Leading edge of cloud looks very anvil like in aperance...

Photos please!

...

Thunderstorm/Convective Watch - Spring/Summer 2012

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