Peak Oil at 2014?

27-11-2014 8:26pm

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Technology marches on.

There are costs to extract fuel.

With fossil fuels energy is probably the biggest and should be carbon taxed imho. But new tech will reduce the energy needs and paradoxically the more fuel costs the more fuel you can use to extract it because the margins are bigger

I can see renewable energy being used to harvest fossil fuel , those large Bagger bucket wheel excavators are hooked up to the electricity grid, so in effect it's acting like a kinda sorta battery in a usage displacement view ,harvesting fuel while the sun shines

one cost that will go up is the environmental ones as more laws are passed to control this aspect

Most of these points also apply to nuclear especially now most of the easy ores have been mined and while there is a lot of uranium in some granite it takes a lot of energy to process hard rocks

EROEI is an important metric, we've all heard of the bio-diesel analysis in Germany where they found that it took nearly a litre of fossil fuel to provide all the extra fertilizer, transport and processing to produce a litre of bio-diesel and was only financially economic because of rebates, subsidies and lower vat/excise duty.

Yes, it's very important to remember that oil isn't the only fuel, it's just the best one for many of the tasks that it is used for, e.g. flight. It's use is also extremely wasteful in so many ways and it is this waste that the recent high prices have chipped away at.

The real fear is that with cheaper (less expensive) some of the more wasteful uses will return. In the US sales of larger vehicles that have higher fuel consumption have apparently started to increase relative to the more efficient vehicles.

Leave oil before oil leaves us should be the course of development because a lower flow rate of oil will be easier to maintain and will ultimately produce far more oil than fast extraction. Fracking produces a field extraction curve with a "long tail" so the oil will be around for a very long time and will remain relatively cheap to operate after the initial costs of starting the well are excluded. It is possible to manage the decline of supply without any drama, it just has to planned for.

06-12-2014 1:04pm

Looks like my theory that low prices will kill projects and quickly causing a decline of new oil coming on stream is being played out.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/12/05/uk-oil-investment-idUKKCN0JJ0D220141205
(Reuters) - Global oil and gas exploration projects worth more than $150 billion (£95.9 billion) are likely to be put on hold next year as plunging oil prices render them uneconomic, data shows, potentially curbing supplies by the end of the decade.

As big oil fields that were discovered decades ago begin to deplete, oil companies are trying to access more complex and hard to reach fields located in some cases deep under sea level. But at the same time, the cost of production has risen sharply given the rising cost of raw materials and the need for expensive new technology to reach the oil.

Now the outlook for onshore and offshore developments - from the Barents Sea to the Gulf of Mexico - looks as uncertain as the price of oil, which has plunged by 40 percent in the last five months to around $70 a barrel. [O/R]

Capt'n Midnight · 06-12-2014 6:05pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Looks like my theory that low prices will kill projects and quickly causing a decline of new oil coming on stream is being played out.

It won't kill them.

They will be put on hold until they become economic as new tech reduces costs or demand increases prices.

Markcheese · 15-12-2014 1:06am

But it may well kill a lot of the alternative energy field - start ups with great ideas or new technology go bust- governments stop funding research - then economies pick up, demand starts to near supply and we're off again- then price kills economies demand and price slumps , the yoyo continues

15-12-2014 6:40am

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

It won't kill them.

They will be put on hold until they become economic as new tech reduces costs or demand increases prices.

I don't hold out much hope for new tech making the extraction of hard to get oil any cheaper, it may make currently impossible fields possible but at an extremely high price. By the time the price has risen enough to restart many of the fracking sites, the companies running them will have already gone bust. Consistently high prices have proven to be a real drag on the economy, the lower prices now may kick-start things a bit.

15-12-2014 6:45am

So is it a yoyo or is it peak?

15-12-2014 8:22pm

Deleted User wrote: »

So is it a yoyo or is it peak?

A yoyo, that never exceeds the heights of 2014

Markcheese · 15-12-2014 9:10pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I don't hold out much hope for new tech making the extraction of hard to get oil any cheaper, it may make currently impossible fields possible but at an extremely high price. By the time the price has risen enough to restart many of the fracking sites, the companies running them will have already gone bust. Consistently high prices have proven to be a real drag on the economy, the lower prices now may kick-start things a bit.

I was thinking more energy saving and renewable energy tech rather than oil industry tech -
Also with the fracking firms- even if they go bust a lot of the oil and gas will keep flowing - a huge amount of the cost of production per barrel would be start up cost and debt servicing- if a small(ish) fracking company goes bang,someone else will buy it for a song and keep the wells producing - of course no one will drill new wells till the price is steadily high enough -

15-12-2014 9:20pm

Markcheese wrote: »

I was thinking more energy saving and renewable energy tech rather than oil industry tech -
Also with the fracking firms- even if they go bust a lot of the oil and gas will keep flowing - a huge amount of the cost of production per barrel would be start up cost and debt servicing- if a small(ish) fracking company goes bang,someone else will buy it for a song and keep the wells producing - of course no one will drill new wells till the price is steadily high enough -

Yes, I think there's plenty more to do on that front, plus a change of thinking when it comes to personal transport. Do you really need to drive to seven different shopping centres just for one dress!

15-12-2014 9:23pm

Deleted User wrote: »

A yoyo, that never exceeds the heights of 2014

In terms of price? Or in terms of production? Or in terms of a vague "cheap supply" whose definition can be changed to be correct afterwards?
There's no sign of a big pick-up in demand soon so the peak of production can be explained by changes in demand and price as much as availability as it can by changes in actually availability.

15-12-2014 10:30pm

Deleted User wrote: »

In terms of price? Or in terms of production? Or in terms of a vague "cheap supply" whose definition can be changed to be correct afterwards?
There's no sign of a big pick-up in demand soon so the peak of production can be explained by changes in demand and price as much as availability as it can by changes in actually availability.

In terms of production due to the "fracking frenzy" that has just happened, investors will be a bit more cautious about throwing money into high priced oil projects after the flaming they are now enduring. With the real risk of deflation, prices may also have peaked in 2008.

Capt'n Midnight · 16-12-2014 12:34pm

Deleted User wrote: »

I don't hold out much hope for new tech making the extraction of hard to get oil any cheaper, it may make currently impossible fields possible but at an extremely high price. By the time the price has risen enough to restart many of the fracking sites, the companies running them will have already gone bust. Consistently high prices have proven to be a real drag on the economy, the lower prices now may kick-start things a bit.

First of all Fracking itself was a new technology that proves that previously inaccessible resources could be utilised when the price / technology make it worth while.

Even if the companies go bust the fuel will still be down there.

In the future Microbes / enzymes / biotech may be use to break down long chain molecules into shorter ones. So the thick oil that's unrecoverable from existing fields might be broken down into lighter fractions or even gas.

And there's always methane cladates which the Japanese have started harvesting.

There is no shortage of fossil fuel.
liquid fractions suitable for transport uses are more expensive but could be made from gas/coal/etc. with higher energy and processing costs

but Peak Oil is not about lack of hydrocarbons, it's the peak of CHEAP OIL

If we went on a humungous recyclables / insulation / electrification / sequestration program we could sort out the carbon dioxide issue too. But it wouldn't be cheap.

28-12-2014 3:22pm

01-02-2015 7:25pm

Ron Patterson calls the peak! http://peakoilbarrel.com/peak-oil-right-now/

In this life nothing is certain. Therefore I am not declaring, absolutely, that we are at peak oil, only that it is a near certainty. But I am putting my reputation on the line in making the claim that the period, September 2014 through August 2015 will be the year of Peak Oil. Below are my reasons for making this claim.
First of all, Peak Oil is not a theory. The claim that Peak Oil is a theory is more than a little absurd. Fossil hydrocarbons were created from buried alga millions of years ago and they are finite in quantity. And as long as we keep extracting them in the millions of barrels per day, it is only common sense that one day we will reach a point where their extraction starts to decline. In fact most countries where oil is extracted are already in decline. So obviously if individual countries can experience peak oil then the world as a whole can also experience peak oil.

Waestrel · 02-02-2015 5:22pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Ron Patterson calls the peak! http://peakoilbarrel.com/peak-oil-right-now/

Oil companies will be laying off staff in thoudands over the next few weeksif they have not done so, including our own tullow oil. The days of the oil companies payingbig wages are over, and they have ****canned a lot of exploration - shareholders want cashflow. When oil prices return to the 8p-100$ mark in a year or so, oil companies will find themselves with a poor pipeline of prospects.

The oil age is in wind down.

Capt'n Midnight · 02-02-2015 7:16pm

Waestrel wrote: »

Oil companies will be laying off staff in thoudands over the next few weeksif they have not done so,

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-31087658

US union leaders have launched a large-scale strike at nine refineries after failing to agree on a new national contract with major oil companies.

It marks the first nationwide walkout since 1980 and impacts plants that together account for more than 10% of US refining capacity.

http://www.lancasterguardian.co.uk/news/heysham-1-on-shutdown-after-water-leak-1-7076174

The price of oil rallied on Monday as investors speculated that the falling cost of crude may have ended.
...
Monday's price rise extended the gains made last week, and boosted oil and gas share prices. Tullow Oil rose almost 7%, while BG Group climbed 5%.

02-02-2015 10:34pm

The speculation in oil prices sounds like a bear trap where speculators buy in bulk only to sell as soon as the flock pile in!
Judging by the wild swings in the price today, someone's made a killing.

22-03-2015 11:15pm

Oil price unlikely to rebound - Saudi official

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-32012062
The oil price is unlikely to reach again the record levels seen in the past few years, according to Saudi Arabia's representative at Opec.

Mohammed al-Madi, Saudi's Opec governor, told an energy conference that hitting the $100 to $120-a-barrel mark again would be "difficult".

Mr Madi also told the meeting in Riyadh that that his country's oil policy had no "political dimension".

Saudi is Opec's biggest producer and the dominant voice with the group.

On Friday, Brent crude closed at $55.2 a barrel, while US oil was $46.5.

Asked if the price could return to previous highs, Mr Madi said: "$100-$120 - I think it's difficult to reach $120 another time."

Meanwhile in Saudi America...

Watch Four Years of Oil Drilling Collapse in Seconds.

The crash in oil prices kicked off intense debate over when, and how, American producers would react. So far they’re still cranking out oil, but there are signs that a slowdown is looming. Chief among them: the record drop-off in drilling for new oil. The animation below shows the deployment of drilling rigs since 2011, culminating recently in a sudden collapse.

http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-oil-rigs/

robp · 23-03-2015 9:27am

Waestrel wrote: »

Oil companies will be laying off staff in thoudands over the next few weeksif they have not done so, including our own tullow oil. The days of the oil companies payingbig wages are over, and they have ****canned a lot of exploration - shareholders want cashflow. When oil prices return to the 8p-100$ mark in a year or so, oil companies will find themselves with a poor pipeline of prospects.

The oil age is in wind down.

Time will tell, but how far it falls could just heighten how sharp the recovery is too.

Waestrel · 27-03-2015 10:34pm

On a related note - how likely is it that the irish offshore will ever yield oil? I would imagine that oil would need to be above 100$ to make exploration and production in the Rockall etc profitable?

28-03-2015 1:34am

Waestrel wrote: »

On a related note - how likely is it that the irish offshore will ever yield oil? I would imagine that oil would need to be above 100$ to make exploration and production in the Rockall etc profitable?

I think that your cost guestimates says it all, as in never!

Unless the demand for $100+ oil (in today’s) money ever materialises again.

Markcheese · 28-03-2015 5:06pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I think that your cost guestimates says it all, as in never!

Unless the demand for $100+ oil (in today’s) money ever materialises again.

How " proven " are reserves in Rockall ..
Doubt it'll be too long before oil hits the $100 again -even then Rockall's a long way from anywhere ...

Waestrel · 30-03-2015 10:38am

Markcheese wrote: »

How " proven " are reserves in Rockall ..
Doubt it'll be too long before oil hits the $100 again -even then Rockall's a long way from anywhere ...

Oil might never again hot 100 for any serious length of time - economic substitution for oil in the economy is well under way with people shifting to electric cars/hybrids, the growth of solar, wind, biomass and geothermal in all parts of the energy mix and overall efficiency gains. These will all destroy demand for oil in the global economy, heading towards 100% green energy by 2050.

worth a read
http://www.singularity2050.com/2011/07/the-end-of-petrotyranny.html

30-03-2015 8:59pm

We're going to need a major change in the way people live and a huge change in their expectations if we're going to get anywhere near that goal.

Over 90% of all current energy is derived from fossil fuels and our current lifestyles are built around that "cheap & plentiful" fuel. When it gets expensive & scarce, a lot of things that are taken for granted will become the exception, rather than the norm.

omicron · 31-03-2015 12:37am

Deleted User wrote: »

We're going to need a major change in the way people live and a huge change in their expectations if we're going to get anywhere near that goal.

Over 90% of all current energy is derived from fossil fuels and our current lifestyles are built around that "cheap & plentiful" fuel. When it gets expensive & scarce, a lot of things that are taken for granted will become the exception, rather than the norm.

I think the point being made here is that oil at higher prices will soon (next 20 to 30 years) be more expensive than some renewable sources as the cost of renewables continues to fall and battery technology etc, continues to improve.

Markcheese · 31-03-2015 12:59am

But isn't part of the problem the whole yoyoing of oil prices ( and the other fossil fuels) . High oil price kills demand - and depresses economies. It encourages research into renewables - as demand for oil slows the price of oil drops. So investment in renewables slows -renewable and energy saving startups go bust -
Low oil price then stimulates economic activity encouraging use of oil - and here we go again -

Oregano_State · 31-03-2015 9:21am

Deleted User wrote: »

We're going to need a major change in the way people live and a huge change in their expectations if we're going to get anywhere near that goal.

Over 90% of all current energy is derived from fossil fuels and our current lifestyles are built around that "cheap & plentiful" fuel. When it gets expensive & scarce, a lot of things that are taken for granted will become the exception, rather than the norm.

Changes in the way people live happen gradually, continuously, and naturally. How many people you know had a smart phone ten years ago, for example? The relative cost of renewable energy sources is going down, and will keep doing so as interest in and acceptance of these technologies becomes more widespread. Solar-based technology alone has made massive advances in the past 5 years or so. The first grid-connected wave-powered station has been opened in Australia in the past few months.

The high price of oil, on average, over the past ten years has seen a big push for exploration and fracking, in particular, has opened up huge quantities of energy that potentially could be harnessed, if oil is at the right price. With the relatively low oil prices right now, that demand is not as strong, but it does not mean that the advances made in renewable tech have disappeared. Car manufacturers are continuing to move towards hybrid and plug-in type platforms, and this will only pick up pace over the next few years as the next generation of batteries becomes available, allowing EVs to have a comparable range to ICE vehicles.

The change in where we source our energy from will not happen overnight, but at the moment there's an over-supply of fossil fuels, which is at odds completely with what you've been saying here over the past year or more. The lay-offs in the oil industry are down to demand, not supply, and there are enough fields (oil and gas) out there that they're sitting on to cover an initial surge in demand, if and when that takes place, until they have time to roll out new large-scale exploration programmes. In short, I don't foresee a doomsday scenario with booming energy costs any time soon.

31-03-2015 9:27am

Yes, I tend to concur with most of that, what has happened is the convergence of several opposing trends that have resulted in the current surplus.

Capt'n Midnight · 31-03-2015 9:41pm

omicron wrote: »

battery technology etc, continues to improve.

We're still mainly using lead acid. The key breakthrough there was in 1880.

Lithium can compete on weight. But it's the same volume as NiMH. And Lead acid beats both on price. But there are cheaper technologies than Lithium out there and ones with greater longevity which don't need to be treated with kid gloves all the time.

recedite · 31-03-2015 9:53pm

Tesla seems to be at the forefront of battery technology.

Tesla was working on a battery that collects energy from the sun during the day and stores it for use at night when people are home

Presumably it would also work for wind turbines, which would allow people to bypass the ESB reluctance to reimburse people properly for exporting microgenerated power to the grid.

Capt'n Midnight · 31-03-2015 10:40pm

Markcheese wrote: »

But isn't part of the problem the whole yoyoing of oil prices ( and the other fossil fuels) . High oil price kills demand - and depresses economies. It encourages research into renewables - as demand for oil slows the price of oil drops. So investment in renewables slows -renewable and energy saving startups go bust -
Low oil price then stimulates economic activity encouraging use of oil - and here we go again -

I can see a point where we use renewable energy to recover fossil fuel for economic and carbon reasons. It's a strange way of storing renewable energy. But we already store fossil fuel energy in nuclear. It takes a long time, roughly 9 years of operation, for a nuclear power plant to even begin to approach carbon neutral when you take into account all the inputs during construction, operation and mining. And future ores will be take more energy to extract and process.

Impetus · 10-04-2015 8:45pm

“ It is well-known that the ultimate oil recovery of any field in the world is only determined when the production management decides to abandon the field for good. This does not occur until the projected oil revenues fall below expected costs and human ingenuity is unable to reverse this relationship.”

We have a massive over-supply (in terms of pumping and storing crude) at the moment... hyped up by American shale oil, which is problematic in terms of environmental damage and shelf life. And a declining oil output trajectory. This is deflecting the focus from sustainable sources. The powers that be who allow this trend to continue have a case to answer. Assuming they work in a democratic country.

10-04-2015 8:53pm

Impetus wrote: »

“ It is well-known that the ultimate oil recovery of any field in the world is only determined when the production management decides to abandon the field for good. This does not occur until the projected oil revenues fall below expected costs and human ingenuity is unable to reverse this relationship.”

We have a massive over-supply (in terms of pumping and storing crude) at the moment... hyped up by American shale oil, which is problematic in terms of environmental damage and shelf life. And a declining oil output trajectory. This is deflecting the focus from sustainable sources. The powers that be who allow this trend to continue have a case to answer. Assuming they work in a democratic country.

It was a classic case of opening all the taps at once, rather than one at a time, resulting in a short spurt as opposed to a decade of steady supply.

The decline when it comes will catch many unawares. Don't worry about those responsible, they've already cashed in and put it all in the bank or mattress/gold.

Capt'n Midnight · 10-04-2015 11:00pm

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32229203

There could be up to 100 billion barrels of oil onshore beneath the South of England, says exploration firm UK Oil & Gas Investments (UKOG).
...
The North Sea has produced about 45 billion barrels in 40 years.
...
"We believe we can recover between 5% and 15% of the oil in the ground, which by 2030 could mean that we produce 10%-to-30% of the UK's oil demand from within the Weald area."

11-04-2015 10:18am

It would be great if it was viable, but it would probably need oil to be in excess of $150 (in today's money) to make it worthwhile drilling.

The biggest hurdle will be the NIMBY's and as this is such a wealthy part of the country, the protesters are more likely to be wearing suits and taking legal action against the drilling companies than chaining themselves to the rigs.

Markcheese · 14-04-2015 4:54pm

[Deleted User] wrote: »

It would be great if it was viable, but it would probably need oil to be in excess of $150 (in today's money) to make it worthwhile drilling.

The biggest hurdle will be the NIMBY's and as this is such a wealthy part of the country, the protesters are more likely to be wearing suits and taking legal action against the drilling companies than chaining themselves to the rigs.

I was kind of horrified at how little of the oil down there is estimated to be recoverable - 5 to 15 % - is that normal for an oil field ?
Is this where the assumption comes from that new technology will rescue us from peak oil - new techniques will allow for much greater oil returns from spent or near spent fields -

14-04-2015 6:18pm

Markcheese wrote: »

I was kind of horrified at how little of the oil down there is estimated to be recoverable - 5 to 15 % - is that normal for an oil field ?
Is this where the assumption comes from that new technology will rescue us from peak oil - new techniques will allow for much greater oil returns from spent or near spent fields -

It really depends on the geology, tight fields usually need fracking as the oil simply won't flow out of the rocks without shattering them. To frack the whole field would require an enormous amount of drilling & fracking, simply too expensive, so they'll only do the best spots.

In a "normal" field 30% is typical before they start using enhanced methods of extraction then 70% is possible, but at a price.

Capt'n Midnight · 14-04-2015 11:15pm

Deleted User wrote: »

using enhanced methods of extraction then 70% is possible, but at a price.

That's when you have to pay attention to EROEI

You have to use a sizeable amount of energy to recovery the marginal oil. And that means a huge amount of excess CO2 too. I think renewables will play an increasing role in providing that energy.

The good news is that all those petrochemicals will be down there if we ever needed them for pharmaceuticals or plastics.

omicron · 15-04-2015 9:28am

Looking more and more likely that demand will peak before supply in the long term.

Renewables additions outnumber fossil fuels.

24-06-2015 10:36pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Ron Patterson calls the peak! http://peakoilbarrel.com/peak-oil-right-now/

In this life nothing is certain. Therefore I am not declaring, absolutely, that we are at peak oil, only that it is a near certainty. But I am putting my reputation on the line in making the claim that the period, September 2014 through August 2015 will be the year of Peak Oil. Below are my reasons for making this claim.
First of all, Peak Oil is not a theory. The claim that Peak Oil is a theory is more than a little absurd. Fossil hydrocarbons were created from buried alga millions of years ago and they are finite in quantity. And as long as we keep extracting them in the millions of barrels per day, it is only common sense that one day we will reach a point where their extraction starts to decline. In fact most countries where oil is extracted are already in decline. So obviously if individual countries can experience peak oil then the world as a whole can also experience peak oil.

Now EIA data is starting to show a peak (could still be false imho)

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/2015-Could-Be-The-Year-Of-Peak-Oil.html
The EIA has finally updated their International Energy Statistics with data through February 2015. All data in the charts below are Crude + Condensate and is in thousand barrels per day with the last data point February 2015.

World C+C dropped 477,000 bpd in January and another 65,000 bpd in February for a total decline of 542,000 bpd. World C+C stood at 79,160,000 barrels per day in February.

Markcheese · 25-06-2015 9:56pm

Ok so production dropped because the price tanked . largely, the price tanked because oil trading and oil speculating became less of a sure thing as supply equaled demand - so if demand suddenly took off in the morning would supply increase quickly to follow it - probably not - infrastructure that is already built is producing regardless of its capital cost as there's no point in turning it off ( unless it's actually costing more than sale price to extract and dispatch the oil )
I 'd always expected peak oil to be associated with high prices that kills demand - not so much with oil at a relatively reasonable 50/ 60 dollars a barrel -
I also assume that oil production could spike if the price goes consistently high for a year or 2 . Or did investors get so badly burned that all near future oil investment will be pared way back ?

11-09-2015 5:52pm

Possibly one of the worst kept secrets in the oil industry as the price of oil is still falling! (as of the time of this post)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34219144
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has predicted US oil output next year will see the steepest fall since 1992 thanks to low oil prices.

US oil production has increased to a record high in recent years as high prices made investment worthwhile.

Prices halved over the past year as demand fell in line with slower economic growth.

Meanwhile, Opec producers, particularly Saudi Arabia, have maintained high levels of production.

It was only a matter of time before the affects of reduced drilling & fracking started to show in the output figures.
Looks like the ME countries are winning the battle for market share and the US will be importing more instead of producing it themselves.
The high costs of fracking is too high to sustain the tight oil production system at these prices.

Impetus · 11-09-2015 6:14pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Possibly one of the worst kept secrets in the oil industry as the price of oil is still falling! (as of the time of this post)

It was only a matter of time before the affects of reduced drilling & fracking started to show in the output figures.
Looks like the ME countries are winning the battle for market share and the US will be importing more instead of producing it themselves.
The high costs of fracking is too high to sustain the tight oil production system at these prices.

gs.com came out today with yet another USD 20 per bbl forecast. Saudi Arabia has had to issue 25 billion in bonds on the market. Cash is running tight. Iraq has big potential, but is taking its time to increase output. Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world - the country is out of control at the moment with a murder every 21 minutes. Renewables are producing an increasing amount of energy - and PV panel prices and falling and energy conversion efficiencies are increasing rapidly. The electric transport industry - cars, trains, trams and buses are taking an increasing share of the people/merchandise mobility market in non-dozy countries.

Oil will become obsolete as an energy source, and will slowly become less needed as a raw material in chemicals etc - as pressure increases to come up with replacement technologies.

Gas is increasingly replacing oil as an interim source.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_proven_oil_reserves

Waestrel · 11-09-2015 6:59pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Possibly one of the worst kept secrets in the oil industry as the price of oil is still falling! (as of the time of this post)

It was only a matter of time before the affects of reduced drilling & fracking started to show in the output figures.
Looks like the ME countries are winning the battle for market share and the US will be importing more instead of producing it themselves.
The high costs of fracking is too high to sustain the tight oil production system at these prices.

How much oil does Saudi have? Have they peaked? If they have, surely they want to get as much $ as possible per barrell to prop up their huge welfare state? THis race to the bottom surely has not done them long term good.

Impetus · 11-09-2015 7:19pm

Waestrel wrote: »

How much oil does Saudi have? Have they peaked? If they have, surely they want to get as much $ as possible per barrell to prop up their huge welfare state? THis race to the bottom surely has not done them long term good.

They (SA) claim to have 268,350 MMbbl. To run a state a la Saudi, one has two variables - price per bbl and number of bbls exported. The fact that they had to resort to a bond issue makes me suspect that the reserves may be over-stated. If the reserves were unlimited, SA would just squirt as much oil as it requires cash into the market to cover running costs of the state. This to me is the opposite to the 1973 position when oil shot up from USD 3 to USD 12 per bbl (159 l), thanks of OPEC.

Capt'n Midnight · 12-09-2015 2:20pm

Impetus wrote: »

Gas is increasingly replacing oil as an interim source.[/URL]

http://www.eni.com/en_IT/media/press-releases/2015/08/Eni_discovers_supergiant_gas_field_in_Egyptian_offshore_the_largest_ever_found_in_Mediterranean_Sea.shtml

According to the well and seismic information available, the discovery could hold a potential of 30 trillion cubic feet of lean gas in place (5.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent in place) covering an area of about 100 square kilometres. Zohr is the largest gas discovery ever made in Egypt and in the Mediterranean Sea and could become one of the world’s largest natural-gas finds. This exploration success will give a major contribution in satisfying Egypt’s natural gas demand for decades.

Also Saudi is starting to diversify but the plans to generate 41GW of solar have been pushed back again. Saudi is now using more energy than the UK.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d08be460-3a06-11e5-bbd1-b37bc06f590c.html#axzz3lWvGmDlH[

20-09-2015 10:41am

Nice little chart to underline the affects that the financial crisis affecting the oil companies is having on the US production of tight (expensive) oil.

Oldblood · 21-09-2015 11:12pm

I am new to the idea of Peak Oil as I have always ignored the idea that recent low costs can lead to problems, but after reading a blog called "Our Finite World" by Actuary Gail Tverberg, especially her recent post called "Deflationary Collapse Ahead?", I have been wondering about how Ireland would cope in a situation where the oil supply was to peak due to the fact that oil has become too expensive to extract. I am aware that we have an advantage in terms of having a low population and a large amount of arable land, so I am confident that maybe Ireland could transition to a different type of society based on agriculture, similar to Cuba perhaps, but I also worry that violence will consume Ireland and it will descend into absolute chaos like the Middle East

02-01-2016 12:11am

Someone's calling "the peak", personally I think that they're calling it too quickly as we really need to see a period of high prices coupled with declining production for a couple of years first.
http://www.artberman.com/the-crude-oil-export-ban-what-me-worry-about-peak-oil/

Capt'n Midnight · 02-01-2016 1:28am

Deleted User wrote: »

Someone's calling "the peak", personally I think that they're calling it too quickly as we really need to see a period of high prices coupled with declining production for a couple of years first.

You are adding two commodities. Conventional oil is blue and that's one resource.

The un-conentional oil is in red and production depends on price.

And again it's not peak oil, it's peak cheap oil. Anyways unless we figure out what to do with carbon dioxide we can't keep burning fossil fuels. Exposing bed rock or dumping it into the oceans may be the safest option , but it isn't cheap or quick.

Peak Oil at 2014?

Comments