Are Fianna Fail FFinished?

Not finished no....

However, they are very much in a state of torpor though.
There was a slight rally in the years post the 2011 GE, but its sliding back.

In opposition they have suffered from being in the unenviable situation of being out-noised by the Shinners but when they do try their hardest at populism, they get hammered for it.

They have also been quite reasoned at times, especially at pre-budget submissions.... (However no one is interested in sensibility so its ignored)

Still too much old guard for the general public too.

I still reckon that when it comes down to it, standing there in the polling booth people will not vote for SF in any great numbers regardless of what pre-election polls may suggest. Too much baggage, Gerry being caught up in scandal after scandal, and too left-wing for most.

LAB it seems won't do a Greens and implode but I can't see them doing very well next year either. They've alienated too many of their core voters.

FF need to lose Martin, O'Dea and some of the rest of the old hangers-on if they're to progress anywhere meaningful at this point I think. Many still haven't forgiven them for the crash, but forget that FG in opposition wanted to spend even more.

Independents and left-wing parties will take a dive in popularity as the economy improves and the upcoming giveaway Budget (why else all the noise about how far we are ahead of predicted tax returns)

That leaves us with FG and they've proven themselves just as able at the cronyism, scandal, corruption and incompetence as FF - with added arrogance and a "leader" that was nearly overthrown himself a few years back. Achieved nothing of real note beyond implementing the FF/Troika plan and clapping themselves on the back for every job created via policies they had nothing to do with.

None particularly palatable IMO, but if I HAD to choose one of those choices, it'd probably be FF - let's face it, we're effectively a one-party State anyway. FG only get in when FF need a hiding and are so similar they might as well merge and get it over with.. which could also happen yet!

To the original question, simple answer, I hope so.

So I just read a thread over in Accommodation and Property that says the current Government are proposing to use tax payer's money to bail out people in mortgage arrears!

Aside from the kick in the teeth to responsible taxpayers who do pay their bills, it shows that there really is no difference between them and FF as they try to buy the next election with this stunt .. and thanks to the property-obsessed Irish it'll probably work too!

well I see that FG propose taking tens of thousands more out of the tax net, what a great idea :rolleyes: The vast majority here are either contributing far too little to the state if on lowish incomes or getting to much from it if on welfare...

For Reals wrote: »

Can we agree there are right wing nutcases too?

See Cowen/Ahern/Lennihan/Kenny/Noonan)

If you think the above as 'right wing nutcases, you frankly haven't the remotest clue what your talking about.

For Reals wrote: »

Can we agree there are right wing nutcases too?
It seems if the nut cases are making money for the right people* it's preferable to nut cases spending money on the poor.

(*See Cowen/Ahern/Lennihan/Kenny/Noonan)

Yes. There are right wing nut cases but they tend to get fewer than 100 votes so none of them are actually a concern and won't be elected in 2016.

The nuts currently in the dail are all left wing.

For Reals wrote: »

In the parameters of the Irish political scene, you find those gents of sound fiscal mind and communist?

Bertie Ahern, Ends Kenny etc.... Centrist.

"Right wing nutcases".... No & silly to suggest same.

hfallada wrote: »

here all parties are fairly social conservative and will alienate young voters, who want to live in a liberal 21st Century European country and not something on par with 1950s Southern State in the US regarding abortion, divorce, LGBT rights. Anything that is mildly controversial is ignored by the Government and any other party. This wont cut it with young voters. How many women here are pissed with ****ty abortion rights? How many high income earners are annoyed with huge taxes? There is tons, but no party to cater for them. If FF is that party, they will do well in election.

I think it was Churchill who said (heavily paraphrasing), if they'd missed their chance to implement the welfare state, it would be hard to see another opportunity arising for some time, but once it was done, it was immutable.

Abortion, Gay marriage and associated wedge issues are expected to progress with the passage of time.
Conversely, it seems the welfare state is stronger than ever.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2014/0728/633463-esri/
According to the ESRI, the policy of protecting those who are dependent on the social welfare system has contributed to an outcome where inequality in the distribution of income has actually fallen over the last five years.

Ireland, it says, differed from other EU countries where the gap between the richest and poorest increased significantly as a result of the crisis.

Economist John Fitzgerald said that the average income has fallen by 8% from the peak to today, while the welfare bill has risen from 13% of income before the crisis to 20% now.

So basically Ireland jacked up tax rates on middle income earners to maintain social welfare, and unlike the rest of the EU, income inequality actually decreased here despite a much more severe economic catastrophe, compared to other EU countries.

Many of us have been hoping for the scenario you outlined in your post, it has certainly been discussed on this forum as far back as I can remember, and while I don't know the specific reason why no party has emerged from the vacuum to fill what is a fairly standard role in most other democracies, I'm wondering whether it has become an immutable part of the Irish political DNA?
Presumably if a government cannot introduce welfare changes during a collapse, there is no hope for such changes during a revival?
.
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I've commented on this elsewhere before, but in Poland when many of the young people began emigrating after EU accession, the younger people who tended to be liberal & were required to balance out the system had emigrated, which meant the social conservatives were unusually strong and Kaczynski came to power with the Law & Justice party, and protectionist policies and anti-gay policies etc..

In the past in Ireland, it was primarily the unemployed and under-qualified who used to emigrate. Now it seems to be highly qualified people and 'apparently' those already in employment.
Does the perpetual emigration of this section of society mean Ireland will never achieve the critical mass required to establish a more typical left/right divide as you outlined in your post?

The last election should have been both a wake up call for the existing parties and for the electorate too, given the rise of the independents and the obliteration of FF in Dublin.

However the people voted in with a clear mandate to clean up the mess immediately stuck two fingers up at the electorate and proceeded to do nothing whatsoever apart from slide around in exactly the same cronyish corrupt swamp of money, privilige and power that FF did. Bondholders didn't get burned, bankers didn't get jailed and secrets weren't told.

While it would be nice to see FF to get totally obliterated at the next election, unfortunately there are still too many hidebound country "I'm a FF man" voters who will never change, and the electorate in Dublin have been shown that getting rid of FF changes nothing because the other main parties are exactly the same.

Now they must decide whether to obliterate Labour, FF or FG at the next election because all three deserve it. SF has a strong core of voters but will they pick up more votes when real power is being decided? The political classes are bricking it at the prospect, and for that reason I'm inclined to vote for them...

joe912 wrote: »

As much as F.F was corrupt F.G were cowardly (fitzgerald, bruton, Kenny)?

Can you please justify this statement ?