BOI shares steadily rising... Worth a punt?

pocketdooz · 31-07-2009 12:01pm

retenzo12 wrote: »

It was actually a new build as opposed to a refurb and i think it was more near 20 million....The place holds approx 2500 and charge 15 euro in and only open fri sat and sun 10 - 3... so overheads are kept to a minimum..the place has been filled every night since it opened..only time will tell!!

According to the Irish Times weekend section it was €38 million.

Assuming this was debt financed at a conservative 7% per annum, the interest payments alone will amount to over €50,000 per week.

I'll give it 18 months before it goes into receivership.

Da Ross · 31-07-2009 12:07pm

Anyway. Back to Bank Of Ireland.... They've been flying up for the last few days!

ranger4 · 31-07-2009 12:52pm

Da Ross wrote: »

Anyway. Back to Bank Of Ireland.... They've been flying up for the last few days!

Nama feel good factor has kicked in, for now.

ranger4 · 03-08-2009 11:53am

Big day tommorow with o carrolls high court appeal, If case goes against him and aib-boi doint do deal to buy o carrolls debt from acc a firesale of this debt could occur before set up of nama which in turn could set market price for development assets and form basis of writedowns banks would have to take, we look set for a real rollercoster ride.

rugbyman · 04-08-2009 8:07am

Too right you are Ranger, re the situation. i have never seen such a situation where it is not easy/impossible to guess/predict where Bank shares are going and whether one should gamble/invest ones money.

The steam has long gone out of these threads, yet I still read them daily.
regards, Rugbyman

ranger4 · 04-08-2009 8:56am

rugbyman wrote: »

Too right you are Ranger, re the situation. i have never seen such a situation where it is not easy/impossible to guess/predict where Bank shares are going and whether one should gamble/invest ones money.

The steam has long gone out of these threads, yet I still read them daily.
regards, Rugbyman

Any word on what time o carrolls high court appeal is due to start today?

AARRRGH · 04-08-2009 4:45pm

From RTE:

The Supreme Court has given Liam Carroll temporary protection against creditors pending a full hearing next Tuesday.

The proceedings followed a High Court ruling on Friday when Mr Justice Peter Kelly refused to appoint an examiner to six companies, which owe eight banks €1.2bn.

The Supreme Court said it would allow a full hearing of the appeal against the High Court ruling next Tuesday at 11am.

Chief Justice John Murray said: 'I am satisfied that the petitioner has grounds for an appeal.'

At the Commercial Court on Friday, Mr Justice Kelly said he was not convinced the companies had proven that they met the legal test of having a reasonable prospect of survival.

The companies were seeking the court's protection after ACC Bank began proceedings to have them wound up because of €136m of unpaid debts.

Today, Senior Counsel for Mr Carroll's companies Michael Cush said the High Court judgment had not attached sufficient weight to the level of pre-planning that went into the application for examinership.

He said seven lenders had agreed to provide finance to discharge unsecured creditors and fund ongoing developments.

Mr Cush said the banks had agreed to a moratorium on repayment of debt for a number of years.

He added that the High Court had ignored the factor that the market could not absorb the amount of property, which would be made available if there was no examinership.

I will be shocked if ACC get their way. Even if ACC are right, too many important people want them to fail.

lucky-colm · 04-08-2009 5:03pm

what happened in court today?

jonnyj · 04-08-2009 8:57pm

Carrol got temporary protection until next tuesday. I would hate to be in his shoes now.

AARRRGH · 04-08-2009 9:15pm

jonnyj wrote: »

I would hate to be in his shoes now.

I'd happily swap my problems for his cause you just know he's got 100 million stashed somewhere.

jonnyj · 04-08-2009 9:24pm

Ya but he will be hunted for every red cent when NAMA kicks in and he will still have to deal with ACC and the english banks. Is bank of Ireland and AIB shares being affected by todays decision.

Fizman · 04-08-2009 11:32pm

jonnyj wrote: »

Ya but he will be hunted for every red cent when NAMA kicks in and he will still have to deal with ACC and the english banks. Is bank of Ireland and AIB shares being affected by todays decision.

Down €0.12 today (5.9%), so people are getting scared by the looks of it. Yoyo chart at the minute.

ranger4 · 05-08-2009 7:57am

I believe o carroll will either get his 100 days or there could be a possible debt purchaise of acc-o carroll soured Loans.

lucky-colm · 05-08-2009 8:27am

small rally in the shares this morning up 3 will be interesting to see if they will continue to climb

jonnyj · 05-08-2009 7:13pm

No change overall today. AIB went up today however, even though they announced a 900 million euro loss. Im still puzzled with the system!!

lucky-colm · 05-08-2009 9:19pm

jonnyj wrote: »

No change overall today. AIB went up today however, even though they announced a 900 million euro loss. Im still puzzled with the system!!

you are puzzled!!
you are puzzled!!
:eek:

sbsquarepants · 06-08-2009 9:29am

Well that makes 3 of us, up 12% today so far? WTF???

heno55 · 06-08-2009 9:47am

lucky-colm wrote: »

you are puzzled!!
you are puzzled!!
:eek:

looks like the market had allready factored in the bad news as it was well flagged,so when the bad news wasent as bad as expected including their polish bank doing better than expected it all adds up to better news ,even with a loss,strange thing these here markets

ranger4 · 06-08-2009 9:49am

sbsquarepants wrote: »

Well that makes 3 of us, up 12% today so far? WTF???

Commerzbank Q2 operating results beat analyst expectations, Also usualy see buying of banks on interest rate release dates.

jonnyj · 06-08-2009 10:14am

Some large volumes going through again today. Its just above the €2 for now.

Eglinton · 06-08-2009 12:07pm

Ratings upgrade for Irish Banks

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/0806/breaking30.htm

In a statement released late last night, Moody's said the financial strength rating of each Ulster Bank, Ulster Bank Ireland Ltd and First Active had been upgraded to D+ from D.

woodseb · 06-08-2009 12:31pm

Eglinton wrote: »

Ratings upgrade for Irish Banks

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/0806/breaking30.htm

D+ !!! break out the champagne:D

daveirl · 06-08-2009 1:02pm

This post has been deleted.

pocketdooz · 06-08-2009 2:05pm

Eglinton wrote: »

Ratings upgrade for Irish Banks

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/0806/breaking30.htm

Anything below C is generally considered to be in technical default so no real reason to celebrate here . . .

dotsman · 07-08-2009 12:02am

To be honest, I'd imagine the rise in price is to do with AIB's interim results. Yes, they made a loss due to write downs, but excluding the write downs, their underlying business is still very profitable.

Although bad, they came in inline/better than expected. The really low price of AIB/BOI shares since the start of the year is based on two things:

The chance of the banks being nationalised/part-nationalised
The unknown amount of time before these banks return to overall profitability

As the chance of nationalisation lessens and investors believe that AIB/BOI may ride the storm and return to profitability in years to come, you will see the share price rise.

There has also been a recent surge in global financial share prices. However, these rises did not carry through to the ISEQ as everyone wanted to see what AIB would report. Now that investors are satisfied that there was no shock in the report, the positive sentiment is beginning to seep through. I hope it lasts:D

Eglinton · 07-08-2009 11:33am

Day-to-day speculation aside, where do you folks see BoI shares settling at in the years to come?

Personally I'd say we'll be up around the 3 euro mark by spring 2010 and then levelling out at a 4-5 euro marker in 2-3 years. They may hit 6 euro eventually but I can't see them rising higher than that (ignoring inflation).

My rationale behind these figures lies in the fact that I believe BoI is a viable entity with more limited exposure to the current threats than other banks. It still has a lot to prove to get back on track but should get there. It is one of the two day to day banks for ordinary citizens and no matter what happens, the unemployment figures are unlikely to drop below 80% meaning there'll still be a significant daily banking requirement for everyone else. The bank will return to normal lending practices. Before the markets went crazy and inflated beyond realistic company value, they were around the 6 euro mark so this is where I think they will return.

pocketdooz · 07-08-2009 1:42pm

Eglinton wrote: »

Day-to-day speculation aside, where do you folks see BoI shares settling at in the years to come?

Personally I'd say we'll be up around the 3 euro mark by spring 2010 and then levelling out at a 4-5 euro marker in 2-3 years. They may hit 6 euro eventually but I can't see them rising higher than that (ignoring inflation).

My rationale behind these figures lies in the fact that I believe BoI is a viable entity with more limited exposure to the current threats than other banks. It still has a lot to prove to get back on track but should get there. It is one of the two day to day banks for ordinary citizens and no matter what happens, the unemployment figures are unlikely to drop below 80% meaning there'll still be a significant daily banking requirement for everyone else. The bank will return to normal lending practices. Before the markets went crazy and inflated beyond realistic company value, they were around the 6 euro mark so this is where I think they will return.

Bad loans will continue to escalate, the property market foreclosure rate will boom as the amnesty period will wear off - gobbling up the banks balance sheets.

Bank of Ireland will be nationalised by this time next year and its shares will be virtually worthless.

imo

.

jonnyj · 10-08-2009 1:43pm

Would I be right in saying that BOI is now at its peak before it drops back down. Its quite stagnant today.

jonnyj · 11-08-2009 9:08pm

Liam Carrolls appeal was refused. What do you think. Is it going to improve things?

daveirl · 11-08-2009 9:12pm

This post has been deleted.

jonnyj · 11-08-2009 9:20pm

The shareholder.

DJDC · 11-08-2009 9:28pm

AIB and BOI are going down tomorrow. By how much its impossible to say. They will do everything they can to stop the firesales from happening and setting market valuations for the loan book. It really could be a house of cards if things start unravelling. Think about how can NAMA possibly pay way over the odds for the junk on their books when only 2 hours ago the SC judged:

"In short there is a complete absence of any objective evidence or material in the affidavits filed by the petitioner (again leaving aside for the moment the independent accountant’s report) which could lead the Court to conclude that there were some underlying objective rationale or material supporting the petitioner’s contention that the market conditions would change in the short to medium term so as to permit the properties in question to be disposed of in an orderly manner so as to enable it to benefit from any enhanced value...

Against this background, in order to persuade the court that the companies have a reasonable prospect of survival, it is perfectly obvious that some evidence of likely improvement in the property market is absolutely essential. Neither the affidavit of Mr Carroll nor the accountant's report makes any attempt to supply this deficiency. The court has been informed that valuations exist. They have not been placed in evidence. In their absence, it is not possible for the court to reach any conclusion on the question of "reasonable prospect of survival.”

I would try offload them tomorrow morning but could be difficult if theres a slide in in the first 30mins. However I also feel that the majority of institutional investors pulled out last spring and havent returned meaning its unlikely for dramatic share price reductions in 1 day purely based on average trade orders.

lucky-colm · 11-08-2009 11:48pm

yes i to think that they will slide the trick is to be the first to unload at what time can you start selling as i have a few shares.

DJDC:there was an article on the independant today that gervias williams of gartmore investment management and they have £800 million invested in different funds is buying aib and boi shares since there lows in early march. this guy dosn't see them being nationalised and believes the shares are a bargain and that the banks are only trading at 20% of there asset value he is also buying into IL&P.

ranger4 · 12-08-2009 12:13am

lucky-colm wrote: »

yes i to think that they will slide the trick is to be the first to unload at what time can you start selling as i have a few shares.

DJDC:there was an article on the independant today that gervias williams of gartmore investment management and they have £800 million invested in different funds is buying aib and boi shares since there lows in early march. this guy dosn't see them being nationalised and believes the shares are a bargain and that the banks are only trading at 20% of there asset value he is also buying into IL&P.

Wonder could we see some kind of deal being made with other financials buying debt from acc and offloading debt through nama later, I am holding my aib-boi stake, probably will see panic selling from open tommorow but i feel sp will find support around 1.70-1.80 range and rise on news of some debt buyout plan and upon startup of nama.

lucky-colm · 12-08-2009 12:23am

yes there was talk a few weeks ago when the whole carroll thing started that aib and boi would buy out accs debt. but now the sc has given the go-ahead to any financial institution to collect their debts which could open the flood gates. it will be interesting to see.

i could see them dropping back to the 1.50 mark where upon i one could buy back in again and make a tidy sum.

lucky-colm · 12-08-2009 8:30pm

the whole carroll thing had very little effect on the markets today there was a slight dip earlier this morning but recovered by dinner time.
i wonder will the appointment of the liquidator have any bearing on the shares in the next few days?

ranger4 · 13-08-2009 11:44am

lucky-colm wrote: »

the whole carroll thing had very little effect on the markets today there was a slight dip earlier this morning but recovered by dinner time.
i wonder will the appointment of the liquidator have any bearing on the shares in the next few days?

I will be watching closely the latest development with the green party looking likely to put nama plan to a vote, This could be critical for gov to get nama passed in dail, any further negitive news could see sp plummet with boi-aib.

lucky-colm · 23-08-2009 11:40am

looks like the wheels could be about to come of the nama wagon now with FG and the greens looking like they might vote against it when the dail resumes

ranger4 · 24-08-2009 11:03am

lucky-colm wrote: »

looks like the wheels could be about to come of the nama wagon now with FG and the greens looking like they might vote against it when the dail resumes

Kenny didnt give good display on his "good" bank plan on radio interview over weekend, still feel nama plan only show in town, fg nama vote doesnt matter as long as no more ff resignations occur and greens stay onboard which i feel they will.

Tech3 · 24-08-2009 2:23pm

I'm just after reading the whole thread of gamblers and their run on the BOI shares. It can be entertaining to see these chaps trying to get some returns on the short term but the amount of money bought on day shares at high risk can be worryingly dangerous.

I have seen some posters mention they put €10,000 towards these. What these people don't know is that they could actually end up in debt if all goes wrong.

It will be interesting to see what shares prices will be like post NAMA.

Onikage · 24-08-2009 8:56pm

I don't understand this obsession with the irish banks. Look at Fannie Mae. If you want to be reckless, you should at least be reaping a big reward.

PYRO#1 · 25-08-2009 11:02am

Is now a good time to sell or are the masses waiting in the wings to flood in after NAMA?

pocketdooz · 25-08-2009 1:56pm

Sell BOI shares - they are really worth nothing. There is no equity value remaining in BOI. They have not marked their corporate, leveraged or property loans anywhere near down to where they should and the provisions for bad loans they are taking are not refective of reality in the slightest.

This bank will be nationalised in the next 18 months.

.

ranger4 · 25-08-2009 8:44pm

pocketdooz wrote: »

Sell BOI shares - they are really worth nothing. There is no equity value remaining in BOI. They have not marked their corporate, leveraged or property loans anywhere near down to where they should and the provisions for bad loans they are taking are not refective of reality in the slightest.

This bank will be nationalised in the next 18 months.

.

Do you also expect same fate for aib withinn next 18 months? I doint feel all our banks will be fully nationalised and delisted from se unless change of gov comes about withinn the next 6 months or so, If ff remain in gov they are likely to have large ownership stakes in aib-boi with both banks remaining on se, also cant see euroland agreeing to allow ALL our banks being nationalised.

pocketdooz · 25-08-2009 9:22pm

ranger4 wrote: »

Do you also expect same fate for aib withinn next 18 months? I doint feel all our banks will be fully nationalised and delisted from se unless change of gov comes about withinn the next 6 months or so, If ff remain in gov they are likely to have large ownership stakes in aib-boi with both banks remaining on se, also cant see euroland agreeing to allow ALL our banks being nationalised.

I don't have as much exposure to AIB's dealings as I do with BOI.

I'm pretty sure BOI will be gone soon.

.

pirelli · 25-08-2009 9:28pm

pocketdooz wrote: »

I don't have as much exposure to AIB's dealings as I do with BOI.

I'm pretty sure BOI will be gone soon.

.

LOL
You said that when it was .60 cents.

I got some money out of BOI. But has anyone who been watching IFG its flying. Almost up 100% from only a couple of weeks ago.

pocketdooz · 25-08-2009 9:56pm

pirelli wrote: »

LOL
You said that when it was .60 cents. I got some money out of BOI. But has anyone who been watching IFG its flying. Almost up 100% from only a couple of weeks ago.

Nothing has changed since it was 60 cents.

.

dirtynosebeps · 26-08-2009 10:26am

pocketdooz wrote: »

Sell BOI shares - they are really worth nothing. There is no equity value remaining in BOI. They have not marked their corporate, leveraged or property loans anywhere near down to where they should and the provisions for bad loans they are taking are not refective of reality in the slightest.

This bank will be nationalised in the next 18 months.

.

pocketdoz
i have read your posts over the last while with interest and the only thing i can come with is that your speculating on BOI being nationalised and that the shares are worth nothing. nobody is sure of which way things are going to go. you keep going on about sell, sell, sell. i sold first thing this morning and within 25 mins of selling i'd lost nearly €1k. i sold for 2.25 and within that 25 mins they were up to 2.35. BOI and AIB are slowly but surely rising. how high they'll go nobody knows not even brokers. i took a huge gamble of buying over 7500 BOI shares at just under 20c.
i'm sure if i asked your opinion months ago about buying at 20c you would've called me crazy or i'd would've been better off throwing my cash into the liffey.
i once asked my broker how high they'd go and his answer was if he knew he'd basically be able to retire. i'm sure the same could be said for you. as in, if you knew they'd reach 2.35 after selling some months ago for around 13c you'd be retired by now.
everyone is entitled to their opinions but as i said nobody knows whats going to happen.

bigeasy · 26-08-2009 10:43am

Dirtynosebeps I totally agree with what you said I dont think anyone knows what the bank shares will do. Did anyone expect them to go up 2 euro in 7 mnths. No

But as you said everyone is entilted to their opinion

ranger4 · 26-08-2009 10:52am

I feel biggest threat to nationalisation is with swift change of gov and not with loss of profit with loan losses etc etc, If ff can remain in power long enough post nama to see stabilisation of our banks then nomatter what gov comes to the fore they cannot justify full nationalisation of our banks.

BOI shares steadily rising... Worth a punt?

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