Winter 2011/2012

Caff Caff wrote: »

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/nov/13/warm-autumn-wildlife-oddities?commentpage=1#start-of-comments

Check out this article and comments. Very interesting and absolutely true...

Looks a lot like December's expected pattern starting to make itself apparent in the modelling, with the exception of operational ECM and ECM mean which are marked outliers in my book.

Key to this is the westward shift of the main upper trough over Alaska pepping up the ridge over the Canadian Arctic (this has been over Hudson Bay for much of the autumn in various strengths). The Pacific ridge looks flat and the eastward shift in the Canadian ridge looks likley to nudge our trough further east resulting in a consequent nudge to the ridge over Scandinavia.

The concensus NAEFS H5 mean has been for a temporary weakening of the Scandinavian ridge as the pattern flattens out in response to the upstream change however it should be noted that the composite analogue package doesn't make much of the Canadian ridge in the longer term, prefering to shift this south into the Atlantic with a strengthening positive anomaly over Finland, something NAEFS is also hinting at the end of runs to rebuild heights over Scandinavia as the Canadian ridge wanes.

All of this does suggest a bit more emphasis on a westerly or south-westerly type pattern for the UK.

For anyone thinking the ECM might be onto something, I would advise a look at how the ECM models the MJO in the next 15 days (much the most progressive of all reliable global models) and ECM spreads for our part of the world.

Still absolutely no sign of anything remotely cold, quite the reverse in fact with the forecast flat upstream pattern not going to help things in the future either.

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Turning 'somewhat colder' from the present 10-12c brings us to average temps for this time of year. The charts beyond the 25th show transitions from current set-up to cooler weather and back to milder weather, hence why MT probably is uncertain about the timing. One thing is clear is that a pattern change is on the way come the 25/26. The Atlantic will lose its firm handle on our weather and there is a massive pool of cold air to our nw, nw and ne. The charts presently show high pressure holding its position over Greenland in late Nov into early Dec, with 1/2 Scandinavian highs forming. One to watch and see if the models stick to this set up. If they do then we could be heading toward our first proper wintry outbreak of the season sometime during second week of December.

Wild Bill wrote: »

Anyone know what has happened to Irish weather online?

http://www.irishweatheronline.com/

It seems to have stopped broadcasting on 31st October.

redsunset wrote: »

A glancing blow that develops into absolutely nothing unfortunately.

thetonynator wrote: »

Well with the 528 dam line right over my house, it could prove to be something . . .and it's not even extreme FI!

A million times better than anything we've seen over the last month!!!