Animals, Plants and the Weather, Natures Signs :MOD note 121

Joe Public · 02-02-2012 7:00pm

octo wrote: »

Interesting thread - thanks to all the contributors. I'm very much in the 'Su Campu' rationalist camp, I don't believe animals have access to special information that eludes us.

But is there evidence for my belief? I'd like to test it.

Does anyone know a good source of historical 'nature' data, preferably stretching back for a long peiod and preferably Irish? E.g. bird migration, tree budding, etc.

We could compare them against climate records and see if there's any predictive power. I'm sure its been done before - but maybe not.

Arguing by anecdote is pointless. This is supposed to be a 'science' forum after all.

Someone posted here either at the end of 2010 or start of 2011 and said he ( think it was a he ) had kept a yearly diary of the last 20 or 30 years that included details of things like time of budding leaves, falling leaves, bird migrations, spring flowers etc.
I had hoped he/she would have come back again with some sort of lists and/or patterns but I haven't noticed any posts since.

Joe Public · 02-02-2012 7:06pm

Cionád wrote: »

Punxsutawney Phil just predicted 6 more weeks of Winter

With all those flashing cameras he would have seen about 10 shadows

slowburner · 02-02-2012 8:22pm

octo wrote: »

Interesting thread - thanks to all the contributors. I'm very much in the 'Su Campu' rationalist camp, I don't believe animals have access to special information that eludes us.*

I'm not in any camp.

*This is a very broad statement if not qualified by 'special information...regarding weather prediction'.
If your statement is to stand as quoted, then I would have to argue that animals do indeed have access to a considerable amount of information which eludes us.
We don't have sonar - bats do, they can detect things in conditions we cannot.
We can barely see in the dark, unlike most nocturnal animals.
Just what is that dog sniffing? We can't smell it.
Can we detect the electrical field of prey fish? Sharks can.
Could a human find its way from a stream in Connemara to the Sargasso Sea without map and compass? Eels can.
We have to use a compass to detect the earth's magnetic field - the direction of many migrations are determined by the animals' ability to sense this effect.
There must be thousands of examples of the sensitivity of animals (and plants) to phenomena and physical forces which we cannot even detect without mechanical assistance.

And a most important question: how and what determines the timing and variability of annual migrations? It certainly isn't a calender.

But is there evidence for my belief? I'd like to test it.

Does anyone know a good source of historical 'nature' data, preferably stretching back for a long peiod and preferably Irish? E.g. bird migration, tree budding, etc.

We could compare them against climate records and see if there's any predictive power. I'm sure its been done before - but maybe not.

Arguing by anecdote is pointless. This is supposed to be a 'science' forum after all.

Yes meteorology is a science, and yes, this forum is under the category of science but it is not called the 'Meteorology forum'.
So just as your statement of belief above, is perfectly tolerable, so too is a belief in the possibility that animals may be able to detect and respond to atmospheric changes which we cannot.
If animals are capable of detecting things that we cannot and if their behaviour changes in advance of a forthcoming weather event, it is not unreasonable to suggest that the two are linked.

It is perfectly reasonable to concede that the possibility exists.

Here's a teeny bit of ''nature data".
(It is scarce so we might be stuck with anecdotal evidence)
Frogs and earthquakes

octo · 03-02-2012 7:37am

slowburner wrote: »

There must be thousands of examples of the sensitivity of animals (and plants) to phenomena and physical forces which we cannot even detect without mechanical assistance.

And a most important question: how and what determines the timing and variability of annual migrations? It certainly isn't a calender.

Yes meteorology is a science, and yes, this forum is under the category of science but it is not called the 'Meteorology forum'.
So just as your statement of belief above, is perfectly tolerable, so too is a belief in the possibility that animals may be able to detect and respond to atmospheric changes which we cannot.
If animals are capable of detecting things that we cannot and if their behaviour changes in advance of a forthcoming weather event, it is not unreasonable to suggest that the two are linked.

It is perfectly reasonable to concede that the possibility exists.

Here's a teeny bit of ''nature data".
(It is scarce so we might be stuck with anecdotal evidence)
Frogs and earthquakes

Yes. I concede your point. But I don't think long-term, or even medium term weather forecasting beyond 12-24 hours or so is theoretically possible using any data collected from a single location.

But my main point is that there's not much point in arguing about it without looking at data, which seems to be in short supply when it comes to signs of nature.

I tried your link to the Wiley paper, but unfortunately I no longer have access to Wiley journals....:(

Anyone know where to get the phenological data from Valentia?

slowburner · 03-02-2012 9:20am

Here's the abstract from the link above.

Abstract

The widespread belief that animals can anticipate earthquakes (EQs) is poorly supported by evidence, most of which consists of anecdotal post hoc recollections and relates to a very short period immediately before such events. In this study, a population of reproductively active common toads Bufo bufo were monitored over a period of 29 days, before, during and after the EQ (on day 10) at L'Aquila, Italy, in April 2009. Although our study site is 74 km from L'Aquila, toads showed a dramatic change in behaviour 5 days before the EQ, abandoning spawning and not resuming normal behaviour until some days after the event. It is unclear what environmental stimuli the toads were responding to so far in advance of the EQ, but reduced toad activity coincides with pre-seismic perturbations in the ionosphere, detected by very low frequency (VLF) radio sounding. We compare the response of toads to the EQ with the reported responses to seismic activity of several other species

cyclops999 · 06-02-2012 3:48am

02.45 and the birds singing so loud

kwik · 06-02-2012 3:56am

cyclops999 wrote: »

02.45 and the birds singing so loud

Yeah thats happening here aswell. Thought it was on the tele but muted it and its not. Dont think it means anything all the same but that just my opinion

Popoutman · 07-02-2012 12:08pm

kwik wrote: »

Yeah thats happening here aswell. Thought it was on the tele but muted it and its not. Dont think it means anything all the same but that just my opinion

Light pollution fooling the poor birds into thinking it's dawn...

kwik · 07-02-2012 2:15pm

Popoutman wrote: »

kwik wrote: »

Yeah thats happening here aswell. Thought it was on the tele but muted it and its not. Dont think it means anything all the same but that just my opinion

Light pollution fooling the poor birds into thinking it's dawn...

I would'nt be surprised poor little feckers

Joe Public · 08-02-2012 1:35am

Popoutman wrote: »

Light pollution fooling the poor birds into thinking it's dawn...

Do we not have light pollution every night?

Popoutman · 08-02-2012 3:52pm

exactly

That's why the birds are singing all of the time - they don't have much of a night to react to anymore in certain locations

Diamond Dust · 08-02-2012 8:41pm

There is an extreme amount of frogs and frog spawn near my house never see so much. does it mean anything? Probably from the mild, wet weather we've had I suppose

slowburner · 08-02-2012 9:05pm

Diamond Dust wrote: »

There is an extreme amount of frogs and frog spawn near my house never see so much. does it mean anything? Probably from the mild, wet weather we've had I suppose

It probably means that you have a lot of frogs and frog spawn, due to the mild wet weather we've had.
I wouldn't read anything into population fluctuations amongst animals or plants.
These fluctuations tend to be responses to recent environmental conditions rather than portents of future weather.
It's nature's way.
If a species produces a super abundance of progeny one year, you can be pretty damn sure that mother nature will do something to reduce that population, one way or the other.
I often hear people saying that a superabundance of Rowan berries in the Autumn is a sign of a bad Winter to come.
It's not, it's simply a product of the preceding Spring and Summer.

Now animal behaviour........that's a completely different matter

Wild Bill · 19-02-2012 11:59pm

Despite the abundance of bugs and insects the birds are hungrier this year than ever!

This was full just a week ago :eek:

Joe Public · 20-02-2012 2:01am

Bill, you have spoiled all the birds in your area and now they are only going for the easy pickings. Soon they'll be sending the young ones to get nuts and seeds for them.:)

Joe Public · 20-02-2012 2:06am

Diamond Dust wrote: »

There is an extreme amount of frogs and frog spawn near my house never see so much. does it mean anything? Probably from the mild, wet weather we've had I suppose

It means there will be a large number of new frogs this year if we don't get a cold spell. It is all the mild weather that has them spawning early and plentiful.

Einhard · 17-08-2012 5:35pm

Was walking home from town today, and it's very muggy and warm. There are clouds rising on the horizon, and it feels like one of those moments when a thunderstorm is imminent. I noticed that the birds were particularly clamorous, congregating in larger numbers than I would have noticed recently, and generally making an awful racket. This got me to thinking about the storie one hears about animals fleeing before storms, and birds anticipating the same. I always thought they were apocryphal, but then I'm a bit of a cynic in general. So I thought I'd turn to the to good denizens of the weather forum to inform me- can animals "forecast" the weather?

<insert jokes about birds predicting the weather on RTE here>

tomcosgrave · 17-08-2012 5:50pm

Not per se of course - but as I understand it, they can detect changes in the environment that we humans cannot.

delw · 17-08-2012 5:55pm

Did we not have a thread about this before?

pistolpetes11 · 17-08-2012 6:09pm

delw wrote: »

Did we not have a thread about this before?

We do , please continue all Animal,Nature and weather related discussions here

notnumber · 23-08-2012 4:07pm

Einhard wrote: »

Was walking home from town today, and it's very muggy and warm. There are clouds rising on the horizon, and it feels like one of those moments when a thunderstorm is imminent. I noticed that the birds were particularly clamorous, congregating in larger numbers than I would have noticed recently, and generally making an awful racket. This got me to thinking about the storie one hears about animals fleeing before storms, and birds anticipating the same. I always thought they were apocryphal, but then I'm a bit of a cynic in general. So I thought I'd turn to the to good denizens of the weather forum to inform me- can animals "forecast" the weather?

They can certainly nowcast..this video is a good example of the birds getting the flock out of dodge before the impending storm

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dOSIjoZnHwI

Caff Caff · 07-12-2012 10:24am

A Redwing was in my garden this morning... perhaps a sign for next week. Unusual to see just one though. I'll keep a close eye out for more but it was quite evident in 2010 when we had huge flocks of Redwings coming from Scandinavia

Spindle · 07-12-2012 11:13am

Caff Caff wrote: »

A Redwing was in my garden this morning... perhaps a sign for next week. Unusual to see just one though. I'll keep a close eye out for more but it was quite evident in 2010 when we had huge flocks of Redwings coming from Scandinavia

Not a bird expert but have some interest in the topic, just a few questions/thoughts on it.

Some Redwings migrate to southern Europe/North Africa over Winter. Could this bird just be following a southerly route and getting caught in an airflow and blown over this way?

As next weeks airflow will be from an East/North Easterly direction could this be a sign of the beginning of that movement of air??

Or is the bird just simply lost??

From the bit of reading I have done on these birds, they are able to get around, even managing to colonise the southern tip of Greenland.

It will be interesting to see if anymore numbers of Redwings appear over the next few days.

force eleven · 07-12-2012 11:48am

To be honest, we tend to get Redwings in the gardens and fields every winter mild or not. What I noticed in 09 and again in 2010, were Fieldfares, which are not as commonly seen around my neck of the woods. Didn't see any last year, very mild one of course. I haven't seen any this year, but since I'm working dawn to dusk - kind of unlikely - I will be looking this weekend though out in the fields,where they flock on the ground. Maybe they are a better 'barometer', if we look to the migrating birds for signs of cold weather.

Joe Public · 07-12-2012 12:36pm

I've heard from someone who watches nature that starling numbers have gone down a lot this year. He didn't suggest a reason or anything it might mean, just an observation.

TURRICAN · 07-12-2012 1:18pm

Joe Public wrote: »

I've heard from someone who watches nature that starling numbers have gone down a lot this year. He didn't suggest a reason or anything it might mean, just an observation.

I've noticed that too.
Usually I can't keep nuts in the feeders with them around. This year it's hardly any starlings.
But I have a load of black caps and yellow tits devouring sunflower seeds and I had very few last year.

slowburner · 07-12-2012 3:52pm

If gulls appear in my neck of the woods, bad weather is guaranteed, and the greater the number the worse the weather.

leahyl · 07-12-2012 4:11pm

slowburner wrote: »

If gulls appear in my neck of the woods, bad weather is guaranteed, and the greater the number the worse the weather.

And?...... have they?!

slowburner · 07-12-2012 8:44pm

Just two.

JJJJNR · 09-12-2012 11:31am

I don't know if this is a "sign" but the birds are lashing any food I put out for them, usually there is a few birds about but there are so many now the supplies need to be replenished every couple of hours.

Redsunset · 09-12-2012 11:40am

Yep same for the last few weeks here.

I'm horsing kilo bags of nut, seeds and fat balls into them.

Back garden is like an aviary. Big birds and small gathering together. No fear in them. They mean business.

perhaps January is when the manure hits the revolving air mover.

JJJJNR · 09-12-2012 11:59am

Great thread!

Going to pick up a 15kg bag off mix today in Aldi jut so were covered for the winter months, I dunno if I'm being crazy but half of me wants to prepare for a winter snow assault, esp when stuff like this is coming !

Caff Caff · 09-12-2012 12:50pm

I agree... the birds are frantic for the cheese. Each winter I put cheese out and they go crazy for it for keeping warm overnight (bar last year). I wouldn't have sren many red wing in Dublin in all my years. 2010 was a real treat for inordinate flocks of them. I have seen a small number now this year which is still not common for where I am. Although there are less fields(damn developers).
)
I've mentioned in the technical thread (although I think it is being ignored due to ramping) that next week will be cold but perhaps not enough for snow on lower levels. January will be a better bet as I've continued to say. We'll see iy after Christmas, a colder change and I see MT is saying it too and Redsunset here. We have Oyster Catchers on our green too in the last week with the geese and that happens for us when they move in from the east coast which we always take as a sign of stormy weather or severe cold.

I best stock up for the birds because they'll probably go for the rabbit if I don't keep up with their demand!

Joe Public · 09-12-2012 2:36pm

JJJJNR wrote: »

I don't know if this is a "sign" but the birds are lashing any food I put out for them, usually there is a few birds about but there are so many now the supplies need to be replenished every couple of hours.

The weather has been cold with many frosty nights and the birds use up more energy to stay warm, therefore they need to eat more to replenish the extra lost energy.
If we were going through a mild spell and the birds were lashing into the food then I'd be wondering if they knew something we didn't.

Mr Bumble · 10-12-2012 2:40pm

Redwings, fieldfares, lapwings, curlews and a lot of waders have been flooding into ireland for about six weeks now.....saw them first down in south Kerry in late October (they shared the air with swallows for a few days before they went south - strange sight!) but they may have just stopped in for a bit of nosh before flying further....plenty in north wicklow for three or four weeks now but nothing unusual....2010 saw ridiculous numbers of them after they all abandoned Scandinavia en masse because of cold. 2010 was very hard on all small birds but I'm not sure that starlings would have been any more vulnerable....saw a big flock doing a spectacular roosting flight in wexford a few weeks back.......most small birds are opportunists and will eat whatever they can find whenever they can find it...if they are getting stuck into food provided by kind folk, it's because it's there.....

TURRICAN · 12-12-2012 10:56am

Hi all.
I was putting out seed for the wild birds today and ive spotted 2 chaffinches.
So I went and did a bit of reading on them and this is what I've found:
From wiki

Popular belief holds that the chaffinch's song foretells rain, leading to the name wetbird.[31]

It also says it prefers to frequent cold climates in Europe.
Just thought I'd add it here

Joe Public · 14-12-2012 6:51pm

Lots of waxwings have been moving into Ireland and other parts of Europe mainly due to the shortage of berries up north where they usually reside. The berry crop here is now disappearing quickly.

TURRICAN · 14-12-2012 6:55pm

There's a tree out backof my place too and it's stripped of red berries.

There feasting on nuts and seeds now.

Joe Public · 15-12-2012 1:52am

The waxwings don't eat nuts or seeds so I presume you mean the chaffinches.

yellowlabrador · 19-12-2012 2:06am

Can somebody help here? We look after a flight pond in some woods. This year, the duckweed started dying back in early November. Today, the pond is absolutely covered, no clear water at all. I presume that we are not having enough frosts, the problem has got bigger in the past week. No ducks are flying in at all.
This is the first year this has happened. Has anyone else a similar experience?

slowburner · 19-12-2012 8:37am

yellowlabrador wrote: »

Can somebody help here? We look after a flight pond in some woods. This year, the duckweed started dying back in early November. Today, the pond is absolutely covered, no clear water at all. I presume that we are not having enough frosts, the problem has got bigger in the past week. No ducks are flying in at all.
This is the first year this has happened. Has anyone else a similar experience?

Wandering a bit off topic here.
It's unlikely that lack of frost is the problem - have you not had frosts?
The problem is enrichment of some sort (eutrophication).
The solution is to find the source of the enrichment. This could be fertiliser, or some such.
This kind of problem is sometimes treated by allowing a bale of barley straw to decompose in the pond. The decomposing bale produces enough hydrogen peroxide to control algae, which should clear the water.

It's very likely not a weather related problem.

Pangea · 08-01-2013 10:33am

Well at least the Postie is on board. :P
POSTMAN WARNS WINTER COULD STILL DELIVER A STING!
http://www.donegaldaily.com/2013/01/08/postman-warns-winter-could-still-deliver-a-sting/

gbee · 08-01-2013 11:51am

Joe Public wrote: »

I've heard from someone who watches nature that starling numbers have gone down a lot this year. He didn't suggest a reason or anything it might mean, just an observation.

Depends on the part of the country. My Starlings are doing fine, good populations and possibly three nestings.

What I see more than a lack of numbers is more periodic feeding, I might have one less family.

Pangea · 08-01-2013 3:36pm

Some rare birds visiting Donegal this week, sign of anything?

Waxwings
http://www.donegalnow.com/sp/article_manager/detail/unusual_birdlife_flocks_to_inishowen

Bittern
http://www.highlandradio.com/2013/01/07/video-of-rare-bittern-bird-spotted-in-inishowen/

Cattle egret
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/environment/bird-swaps-savannahs-of-africa-for-donegal-16258648.html

maquiladora · 08-01-2013 3:42pm

Pangea wrote: »

Well at least the Postie is on boards. :P

Fixed that for you, :P

sully2010 · 08-01-2013 4:54pm

I'm not totally convinced about nature signs but I have noticed a lot of birds in my garden today picking at the ground and bushes, something I haven't seen all winter. I did notice this before the 2010 cold spell but didn't believe the link. If we are in for another cold spell I think my opinion on this will change!

kingshankly · 08-01-2013 5:01pm

Just seen some daffodils early not in bloom but not far from it
Earliest I have seen them

fr wishy washy · 08-01-2013 9:41pm

Mine are up 3 inches already

Joe Public · 08-01-2013 11:13pm

Pangea wrote: »

Some rare birds visiting Donegal this week, sign of anything?

Waxwings
http://www.donegalnow.com/sp/article_manager/detail/unusual_birdlife_flocks_to_inishowen

Bittern
http://www.highlandradio.com/2013/01/07/video-of-rare-bittern-bird-spotted-in-inishowen/

Cattle egret
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/environment/bird-swaps-savannahs-of-africa-for-donegal-16258648.html[/QUOTE]

Waxwings are well covered already in this thread, bad crop of berries in the northern woods this season but it's very rare they hit the west of Ireland and have been spotted west of the Shannon.

Frog spawn was spotted in Cork last week which is really early, just proves the frogs know zilch or Cork is going to miss out.

Pangea · 08-01-2013 11:45pm

Joe Public wrote: »

Frog spawn was spotted in Cork last week which is really early, just proves the frogs know zilch or Cork is going to miss out.

Wouldn't worry about the frogs in Cork, sure they survived the Ice age!

L.perenne wrote:

It might be interesting to note here that in the past the south-west of Ireland may have been a glacial refugia in the past ice age. For example frogs in the SW of Ireland are gentically distinct & it is theorised that this is the cause. Here is a link to a recent paper on the issue. There are other examples of this too in the plant kingdom.

http://www.nature.com/hdy/journal/v1...y2008133a.html

Maybe Cork will never get snow!

Animals, Plants and the Weather, Natures Signs :MOD note 121

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