NFL Betting Thread 2015/2016

Hulk Hands · 08-01-2016 1:55pm

A straight up Sharp vs Mug battle in every game this weekend! The vegas bookie's aren't even trying to pretend it's anything else, such is the increased turnover of public money in every playoff game. Superb value on all the home teams this week. Weirdly enough, the one im hesitating slightly (having the smallest stake) on is the Redskins, and that's the one seeing the most sharp action supposedly.

skippymac6 · 08-01-2016 3:54pm

Have to agree on the home teams this week. I don't think I have ever seen the four road teams being favoured on a playoff weekend. I can see a low scoring round of games too but they are priced accordingly with the two more defensively minded games at only 40 points. I think that if there is an "upset" this weekend, then I'd be inclined to take the Bengals. I've backed Big Ben over 300 yards and Antonio Brown over 100 yards most games this year to good effect and I'll be continuing that trend again this weekend (weather permitting). That said, AJ McCarron is playing above average for the Bengals and I do fancy them to go very very close. The uncertainty around DeAngelo Williams is a big blow for the Steelers and I can see the all around talent of the Bengals having just enough come Saturday night.

adrian522 · 09-01-2016 2:53pm

Don't bet much on NFL but gave it a go for the weekend.

Didn't have any strong feeling on Pittsburgh or Green Bay games so went with this

Minnesota Vikings (+4.5) @ 1.9

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) @ 2.05

I think the Seahawks/Vikings game will be close, much closer than recent game in week 13. Lynch is not back but they still have good options in the run game.

When the Seahawks have lost recently the opposition has made hay in the ground game and the Vikings can find success here. One score game in the end I think, could go either way so I think the 4.5 for Vikings swings it for me.

The Chiefs I think are playing as well as anybody and Houston are just not very good and are lucky to be in the playoffs. Justin Houston is back and the Texans are struggling at tackle, I think the chiefs will cover this with a bit to spare.

helimachoptor · 09-01-2016 4:12pm

i had 15 left in my PP account, so went for chiefs to win and under 40.5 points, think this will be a defensive battle

2.80:1

ScummyMan · 09-01-2016 4:31pm

helimachoptor wrote: »

i had 15 left in my PP account, so went for chiefs to win and under 40.5 points, think this will be a defensive battle

2.80:1

Joined you on that.

Hulk Hands · 09-01-2016 9:06pm

A decent portion of the bankroll in play now at this stage, with the home teams in every sort of bet. Got the texans +3.5, Bengals +3, and Vikings +7 so ahead of the market thankfully anyway. Will be a lean weekend if they all lose, least plenty of others will be in the same boat. Can see tonight's results having a big effect on tomorrow's matches, so might be worth getting bets on for tomorrow during tonight's games

Bateman · 09-01-2016 9:24pm

I think the total on the Bengals game is on the low side. I think it goes over by the third quarter.

ScummyMan · 10-01-2016 1:42am

helimachoptor wrote: »

i had 15 left in my PP account, so went for chiefs to win and under 40.5 points, think this will be a defensive battle

2.80:1

Nice start to the weekend! I've put some of the profit on Steelers win and over 46.5 points, I'm feeling a shootout coming. 23/10.

helimachoptor · 10-01-2016 2:22pm

ScummyMan wrote: »

Nice start to the weekend! I've put some of the profit on Steelers win and over 46.5 points, I'm feeling a shootout coming. 23/10.

Bookie always wins :pac:

Though i was going to do the same but fell asleep

ScummyMan · 10-01-2016 3:24pm

helimachoptor wrote: »

Bookie always wins :pac:

Though i was going to do the same but fell asleep

Haha, yeah I'll never learn.

Don't fancy too much for tonight, definitely not going near the packers redskins game.

adrian522 · 10-01-2016 6:49pm

Threw a double on Vikings/Packers (+0.5) to keep things interesting.

Also have Vikings on the H/C. Decent profit from last night so hoping to improve on that

Paully D · 11-01-2016 10:52pm

Paully D wrote: »

Steelers did the job yesterday. 20-16 on the season.

A couple of playoff picks for this coming weekend:

Steelers (ML) @ Bengals (4/5, SkyBet)
Packers (ML) @ Redskins (24/23, Marathon)

A good weekend. 22-16 for the season. Just one bet for me next weekend:

Seattle (ML) @ Panthers (13/10)

Warper · 12-01-2016 6:25pm

Fancy over 43 pts in the Packers-Cardinals game @ 10-11 and under 44 pts in the Panthers-Seahawks game at 10-11

Bateman · 22-01-2016 10:15am

Looks like there will be some 3.5s available on Denver, has anyone played anything yet for this weekend?

I think the value is probably on both dogs but may take Arizona outright instead of the points

Bateman · 22-01-2016 10:15am

Looks like there will be some 3.5s available on Denver, has anyone played anything yet for this weekend?

I think the value is probably on both dogs but may take Arizona outright instead of the points

StringerBell · 22-01-2016 10:50am

I'm thinking of going with Arizona straight up, but won't be touching the AFC game, other then maybe some prop bets

Paully D · 23-01-2016 2:01pm

Paully D wrote: »

A good weekend. 22-16 for the season. Just one bet for me next weekend:

Seattle (ML) @ Panthers (13/10)

22-17.

All over the Patriots (4/6) and the Cardinals (6/4) this week.

2 singles and a double.

sportstar583 · 23-01-2016 2:24pm

I think Denver +3 is a decent bet. Denver beat New England earlier in the year. Of course, that was with Brock and the patriots were banged up but I don't believe Denver should be the underdog in this game.

StringerBell · 24-01-2016 3:17am

They shouldn't.

Morrison J · 24-01-2016 5:08pm

Denver who have a bottom 5 QB in the league against a healthy Brady and Belichick led Patriots should be favourites? Mental imo.

I'm all over the Pats -3 personally.

Also, Arians nearly always takes the ball to start, Rivera usually defers.

I'm backing Cards +1 to win the first quarter

Hulk Hands · 24-01-2016 7:44pm

Morrison J wrote: »

Denver who have a bottom 5 QB in the league against a healthy Brady and Belichick led Patriots should be favourites? Mental imo.

I'm all over the Pats -3 personally.

Broncos were projected to be favs before the last slate of games. To put this in perspective, this line would be 10 if the game was in Foxboro (-3.5, +3.5). I assume you were having your absolute mortgage on the Pats -4 at home to the Chiefs last week, if your all over the equivilant of the Pats -10 vs Denver this week?

Morrison J · 24-01-2016 8:32pm

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Broncos were projected to be favs before the last slate of games. To put this in perspective, this line would be 10 if the game was in Foxboro (-3.5, +3.5). I assume you were having your absolute mortgage on the Pats -4 at home to the Chiefs last week, if your all over the equivilant of the Pats -10 vs Denver this week?

Yep I had money on the Pats last week, I've money on them tonight and I've money on them to win the Super Bowl outright.

They are by far the superior team compared to the Broncos. They're the class of the AFC. People completely underestimated the importance of Edelman coming back. Allows Brady to get rid of the ball quickly.

Pats win by double digits tonight imo. Only worry I have is that big calls go against them. NFL will be pulling hard for Peyton to reach a last Super Bowl and to avoid a Goodell handing the Lombardi over to Brady scenario. I think the Pats are too good for this to be a possibility though personally. We will see.

StringerBell · 24-01-2016 8:55pm

Can't understand the confidence, and I'm a Pats fan!

We have a solid team, but will have to be at our best tonight, our very best.

I'm guessing the Pat's by 5 but with my fan goggles on

Hulk Hands · 24-01-2016 9:21pm

Morrison J wrote: »

Yep I had money on the Pats last week, I've money on them tonight and I've money on them to win the Super Bowl outright.

They are by far the superior team compared to the Broncos. They're the class of the AFC. People completely underestimated the importance of Edelman coming back. Allows Brady to get rid of the ball quickly.

Pats win by double digits tonight imo. Only worry I have is that big calls go against them. NFL will be pulling hard for Peyton to reach a last Super Bowl and to avoid a Goodell handing the Lombardi over to Brady scenario. I think the Pats are too good for this to be a possibility though personally. We will see.

Fair enough, but such is the difference in the spread, anyone who thinks the pats were a bet tonight must surely have had theyre life savings on the Pats last week, not just a normal bet. The pros are also on the Broncos big time. Good luck though. I thought about the Broncos but held off in the end

Morrison J · 25-01-2016 12:44am

Hold my hands up I've had a shocker!

Literally can't believe that result at all.

Hoping the Cards win next game as I love how they match up with the Broncos. Money to be made there.

Bateman · 26-01-2016 3:18pm

Early thoughts on the big one: it has the look, like so many games, of a “fav to cover or dog to win outright” kind of game.

If you really believe Denver can hang with Carolina, you just bet Denver on the ML because in the long run, enough teams in this bracket of less than 7pt underdogs will win. And even if you don’t believe Denver can hang with them, you realise you could be proven wrong (as you have been time and time again in this game), and you bet them on the ML anyway as some form of partial cover bet for a man-sized bet on Carolina to cover.

Beating the Pats was a fine achievement but sacking Brady so many times was such a big part of it. This Denver pass rush is frightening, but considering the Pats have now parted ways with their OL coordinator, and the Panthers are fairly handy in this department, one of Denver’s key strengths isn’t going to be enough on its own for them this time.

Bateman · 26-01-2016 3:24pm

Should also add, I’ve taken a small bit of the -3, only because it’s blatantly obvious which way this line is going to go. The public will have their say and I think the pro money for Denver (whatever amount of it there is, no doubt some groups will be on the fav) is going to wait in the wings for at least another week

adrian522 · 26-01-2016 5:50pm

I took Carolina -3.5. Line is up to 4.5 now on betfair.

Bateman · 28-01-2016 5:33pm

looking like -5.5

D9Male · 29-01-2016 11:29am

I would be interested in Denver if it gets to the 6 point mark. Carolina are good, but they are not that good.

PokeHerKing · 29-01-2016 5:36pm

D9Male wrote:

I would be interested in Denver if it gets to the 6 point mark. Carolina are good, but they are not that good.

I think they are good enough to cover 6.5, I'd be taking Carolina on anything up to that or Denver ML.

As a Denver fan I'll be taking the ML option close to kick off

TRS30 · 05-02-2016 1:28pm

PP offering Panthers at 4/1, seems generous for a two horse race where a lot of people have them favorites.

Bookie rarely loss though!

TRS30 · 05-02-2016 1:28pm

Duplicate post.

adrian522 · 05-02-2016 1:28pm

Presume that's a sign up offer and winnings will be in the form of a free bet?

TRS30 · 05-02-2016 1:30pm

adrian522 wrote: »

Presume that's a sign up offer and winnings will be in the form of a free bet?

Not sure, just saw on here a second ago.

Morrison J · 07-02-2016 7:49pm

Panthers -3.5
Thomas Davis under 6 tackles
Ronnie Hillman under 11.5 rushing attempts
Sanders over 5.5 receptions

And one speculative one for a bit of fun..

Mike Tolbert to score two TD's 50/1

Morrison J · 07-02-2016 7:49pm

Guffy · 08-02-2016 4:23am

Anyone know gatorade colour?

Arrow in the Knee · 08-02-2016 4:25am

gufc21 wrote: »

Anyone know gatorade colour?

Orange

adrian522 · 08-02-2016 3:14pm

Superbowl 51 Odds:

Patriots: 8-1
Seahawks: 8-1
Steelers: 8-1
Cardinals: 10-1
Packers: 10-1
Panthers: 10-1
Bengals: 14-1
Broncos: 14-1
Cowboys: 16-1
Chiefs: 20-1
Colts: 20-1
Vikings: 20-1
Bills30-1
Jets: 30-1
Ravens: 30-1
Bears: 40-1
Falcons: 40-1
Giants: 40-1
Lions: 40-1
Washington: 40-1
Saints: 40-1
Texans: 40-1
Buccaneers: 50-1
Chargers: 50-1
Dolphins: 50-1
Eagles: 50-1
Jaguars: 50-1
Raiders: 50-1
Rams: 50-1
Titans: 50-1
49ers: 60-1
Browns: 200-1

D9Male · 08-02-2016 4:56pm

Thanks, always interesting to look at this. If you are willing to spread your business, you can actually get better odds on a few of those teams.

The Eagles at 50/1 and the Bucs at 100/1 would strike as decent value at this vantage point. Lot of tarmac between now and September, though.

adrian522 wrote: »

Superbowl 51 Odds:

Patriots: 8-1
Seahawks: 8-1
Steelers: 8-1 (14/1 available)
Cardinals: 10-1 (14/1 available)
Packers: 10-1 (12/1 available)
Panthers: 10-1
Bengals: 14-1 (16/1 available)
Broncos: 14-1 (16/1 available)
Cowboys: 16-1 (25/1 available)
Chiefs: 20-1 (28/1 available)
Colts: 20-1 (25/1 available)
Vikings: 20-1 (25/1 available)
Bills 30-1 (50/1 available)
Jets: 30-1 (40/1 available)
Ravens: 30-1 (40/1 available)
Bears: 40-1 (80/1 available)
Falcons: 40-1 (50/1 available)
Giants: 40-1 (50/1 available)
Lions: 40-1 (50/1 available)
Washington: 40-1 (50/1 available)
Saints: 40-1 (80/1 available)
Texans: 40-1 (50/1 available)
Buccaneers: 50-1 (100/1 available)
Chargers: 50-1 (100/1 available)
Dolphins: 50-1
Eagles: 50-1
Jaguars: 50-1 (80/1 available)
Raiders: 50-1
Rams: 50-1 (66/1 available)
Titans: 50-1 (200/1 available)
49ers: 60-1 (100/1 available)
Browns: 200-1

kennyb3 · 08-02-2016 5:26pm

Always interesting. I'd much rather be backing the Vikes at 20-1 than the cowboys at 16-1 anyway.

Morrison J · 08-02-2016 9:27pm

D9Male wrote: »

Thanks, always interesting to look at this. If you are willing to spread your business, you can actually get better odds on a few of those teams.

The Eagles at 50/1 would strike as decent value at this vantage point. Lot of tarmac between now and September, though.

Why would you think that? I think they're very limited.

D9Male · 08-02-2016 10:17pm

Almost every single NFL team is limited. Even the Super Bowl champions.

I like the business they have done so far. Ertz, Curry and Johnson locked up on long-term deals.

Their defensive front is among the best into the league. Cox and Curry in particular.

I am not a big fan of Bradford, but if he improves on last season to a level close to his capabilities, the team rises with him. His receivers were droppy and the running game was a shambles at times. Given that the receivers are young, and a decent running back should be available, it is not too big a stretch to see the offense thrive in skills positions.

O-line was a problem, but it got better as the year progressed. A guard in the draft would help. not playing under Kelly seemed to have helped.

Secondary was poor and I think they might not have the best set of linebackers in the league.

They are in a really **** division.

Not sure who is hitting FA or what the cap space looks like. And I have only seen maybe half their games on condensed, so I could be talking out of my arse.

Bateman · 17-02-2016 12:24am

I'll be backing America's Team again. Romo stays fit and they surely piss the division

Morrison J · 03-05-2016 3:08pm

Paddy Power post draft division winners odds are up. Looks like some terrific value out there imo.

Jags are third favourites for the AFC South. 3/1

Redskins joint last favourites for the NFC East 3/1

Panthers 4/6 for the NFC South looks value given the state of that division too.

ScummyMan · 03-05-2016 4:17pm

Morrison J wrote: »

Paddy Power post draft division winners odds are up. Looks like some terrific value out there imo.

Jags are third favourites for the AFC South. 3/1

Redskins joint last favourites for the NFC East 3/1

Panthers 4/6 for the NFC South looks value given the state of that division too.

You can get 15/4 for that on Bet365, just had a decent wedge on myself.

Bet365 often have some serious value when it comes to NFL, I get the feeling its not a big market for them.

helimachoptor · 04-05-2016 5:23pm

Can easily see the Jags winning the division tbh, on paper anyway their team is excellent

adrian522 · 04-05-2016 5:33pm

I'd be wary of putting too much faith on rookies who've just been drafted. 3/1 sounds about right to be honest.

Beefy78 · 05-05-2016 11:07pm

It's not just the rookies - they made some solid free agency signings too. Third favourite for the division seems strange to me.

NFL Betting Thread 2015/2016

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