The Football / Soccer Tips Thread v2

MikeyGorse · 08-12-2011 10:31pm

I feel the team has come on a lot since last season,some great form lately,can see them winning this 2-0!

elefant · 08-12-2011 10:39pm

MikeyGorse wrote: »

I feel the team has come on a lot since last season,some great form lately,can see them winning this 2-0!

I know, I watch every game

I wouldn't be too confident, especially without Banega. It's been a struggle since he got injured, and I've never been too convinced with Tino Costa. Still, should have enough to beat Betis...

MikeyGorse · 08-12-2011 11:08pm

True Banega's a huge loss,some player but as you said they should still have enough to beat Betis!!

SteelyDanJalapeno · 08-12-2011 11:08pm

He was savage in Football Manager.....

elefant · 08-12-2011 11:09pm

TiltedBrain wrote: »

He was savage in Football Manager.....

A regular Freddy Guarin :pac:

Gillington · 08-12-2011 11:24pm

gar.ie wrote: »

Any tips for around england over the weekend ?

Im looking at Crawley,Falkirk and Barnsley meself

Smithwicks Man · 08-12-2011 11:28pm

Bologna vs Milan on Sunday:

Bologna look wrecked in their game atm and are bound to be fatigued for sunday after their coppa italia match going to extra time this evening. This combined with them being 17th in the league winning 2 games at home and losing 4, scoring 5 goals in the process and conceding 9 against weak enough opposition (siena, catania, atlanta, lecce.. as well as losing by 2 goals to both lazio and inter).

Milan on the other hand had the chance to rest players during the week, (ibra, abate, boateng, van bommel, nocerino played 40mins, thiago silva played 50 mins,) and so they should be flying about, Ibrahimovic in particular who always plays well after being rested.

This is combined with milan scoring for fun these days and although their home form is a lot better than their away form 5-2-0 compared to 3-1-2 they have played much stronger teams away from home (losses to napoli and juventus) and their away form is getting better and better.

Staking a large amount on Milan @ 1/2
Moderate amount on Milan -1 @ 6/4
and a moderate amount on Milan and Ibrahimovic wincast @ 7/5.

Sorry about the long post btw! :P

SteelyDanJalapeno · 08-12-2011 11:30pm

We loves long posts, justifying your selections go along way.

mike65 · 09-12-2011 12:02am

Lecce v Lazio, the away side have been in cracking away form (1 draw to Napoli and 5 wins) against the bottom side, they are about 1.8 which looks a decent price.

Yardie · 09-12-2011 12:11am

A big weekend for cards in La Liga this weekend lads:

We got some tasty matches like Levante/Sevilla and Getafe/Granada but they and most other matches are overshawdowed but what is the mother of all cardfests. El SuperClassico Real Madrid vs Barcelona.

The Ref is David Fernandez Borbalan and his stats are not overly harsh but he did ref the Super Cup match at the start of the season which saw 3 red cards and 9 yellows

Some bookies have their prices up early and most are Evens for over 80 points. However our good pals at victor chandler are giving 5/6 for over 65 points. I am going to smash into this for starters and will see what else presents itself on match day regarding time of first card,player bookings, red cards etc as options are slim on these at the minute

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/european-football/spain/la-liga-primera/real-madrid-v-barcelona/total-booking-points

Derek! · 09-12-2011 12:28am

Yardie wrote: »

victor chandler are giving 5/6 for over 65 points

Sold

cheers I'm on it straight away!

Shane St. · 09-12-2011 12:29am

taking the 15/8 on man city early. Chelsea are still not great, despite their impressive win in midweek. Every decent team Chelsea have come against in the league they've lost to. That price won't last

Yardie · 09-12-2011 12:40am

Derek! wrote: »

Sold cheers I'm on it straight away!

Its a great line, I don't see it lasting.

This match has cup final quality about it cause if Real win then the league is as good as theirs. Both sides have been gearing up to it for weeks and nothing will be left in the locker. It should be a great spectacle.

Derek! · 09-12-2011 12:48am

Yardie wrote: »

Its a great line, I don't see it lasting.

This match has cup final quality about it cause if Real win then the league is as good as theirs. Both sides have been gearing up to it for weeks and nothing will be left in the locker. It should be a great spectacle.

I agree, that's why I jumped on it so quick

Your pretty much guaranteed a load of cards in this particular game!

Hopefully we have a red or 2 to help our cause

Thanks again for findin that one, win or lose.

wp_rathead · 09-12-2011 12:51am

thanks for heads up Yardie, unfortunately im not on Victor to take advantage.

just looking at PP and "A Penalty to be awarded" is at 17/10. Could be worth a punt, this game seems to have a history of penalties in it

In the Bundesliga II, I like Paderborn 07 to beat Hansa @4/6, and -1 @ 15/8 looks very tempting as Hansa has been beaten by 2 or more in 4/5 of their away defeats

seanhynes · 09-12-2011 1:18am

whats the story with boylesports. when u sign up and place 20euro and then use their so called free 20 bet they give u the next day they just take back the 20 that you stake from the winnings that they supposedly give you for free,hoax free bet:rolleyes:

SteelyDanJalapeno · 09-12-2011 1:20am

Think most sites work like that now

seanhynes · 09-12-2011 1:26am

365 are good for giving them out,thats just a joke, u need to be placing an even money just to make it ur own money:rolleyes:

Headshot · 09-12-2011 1:34am

Iv a big treble relying on CA Tigre v Velez Sarsfield

Anyone got a decent preview of the match or tips.

SteelyDanJalapeno · 09-12-2011 1:37am

Fairly brief,

http://www.betrush.com/pick,Tigre___Velez,21327.html

Headshot · 09-12-2011 1:39am

TiltedBrain wrote: »

Fairly brief,

http://www.betrush.com/pick,Tigre___Velez,21327.html

Ya that made up my mind to do the treble in the 1st place but since im just one match away from 400 euro, I want to more info

hefferboi · 09-12-2011 3:47am

Did an accumulator. Hoping and praying my 2 week losing streak comes to an end.

Barnsley
Milan
Lazio
Arsenal
Az
Celtic
Udinese
Borrusia Dortmund
Lille

E5 @ 30/1

What do ye think?

kryogen · 09-12-2011 10:36am

I think I hate accums!!

good luck with it though

For anyone interested Barcelona can be got at 15/8 this weekend v Real Madrid, Madrid are playing some great stuff at the moment but Barcelona are Barcelona and simply cant be ignored at that price imo, how many times will you get the chance to back them at just under 2/1??

worth a small bet imo

Also the card index is 5/6 over 65 which is more then generous in a classico

gudede · 09-12-2011 11:14am

Good spot Yardie...I got on @ over 65 pity they don't have alternative one's up yet. The ref's last 9 games reffing either Bara or Madrid has produced 53 yellows and 6 reds.

keane2097 · 09-12-2011 11:23am

kryogen wrote: »

I think I hate accums!! good luck with it though

+1

All accumulators typically do is multiply the bookies edge, steer clear IMO unless you've got a low number of very short odds bets which have a clearly defined edge for you, that way you can multiply your edge instead of PP's.

Nodin_ · 09-12-2011 11:25am

wprathead wrote: »

Also tomorrow, Brisbane v Melbourne Heart. Brisbane doing bril in Oz league, unbeaten at home, winning 4 and drawing 1, scoring 16 goals and conceding only 2. Melbourne have away record of 1-2-2, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Brisbane -1 @ evens looks good

Hmm Melbourne is hammering Brisbane at the moment... I don't think anyone in this forum has a clue. Glad I didn't follow you into bankruptcy

kryogen · 09-12-2011 11:36am

Nodin_ wrote: »

Hmm Melbourne is hammering Brisbane at the moment... I don't think anyone in this forum has a clue. Glad I didn't follow you into bankruptcy

lol

quality

inforfun · 09-12-2011 11:42am

Nodin_ wrote: »

Hmm Melbourne is hammering Brisbane at the moment... I don't think anyone in this forum has a clue. Glad I didn't follow you into bankruptcy

Go away, troll.
In name and post.

gudede · 09-12-2011 11:50am

Nodin_ wrote: »

Hmm Melbourne is hammering Brisbane at the moment... I don't think anyone in this forum has a clue. Glad I didn't follow you into bankruptcy

This was your post yesterday

Can we expect many goals in tonight's Juventus V Bologna game? I'm thinking of putting a significant amount on over 2.5 goals to cover last night's losses (fcuking Utd....)

It seems you can find your own way to bankruptcy you twat. The stats given with regards the Brisbane were good and everything looked to be pointing towards a Brisbane win. Just because it didn't win doesn't mean it was a bad bet, more times than not following the stats will get you winners.

keane2097 · 09-12-2011 11:52am

gudede wrote: »

It seems you can find your own way to bankruptcy you twat. The stats given with regards the Brisbane were good and everything looked to be pointing towards a Brisbane win. Just because it didn't win doesn't mean it was a bad bet, more times than not following the stats will get you winners.

In fairness if the only reason for placing it was the two lines worth of a form guide there's no chance it was a good bet.

seanhynes · 09-12-2011 12:07pm

brisbane were on a 30 something game, record unbeaten streak up until last weekend,its strange the effect a defeat can have on a team,also i heard they were missing 1 or 2 key players for the game today..id stay away from them for a few weeks until they get another run of form going.. theyd be a solid shout any other weekend,they were never a bad bet

magherakid · 09-12-2011 12:14pm

One bet for tonight
Torquay v Barnet
Izale McLeod Anytime Goalscorer 11/5 Boylesports shorter everywhere else

He's top goalscorer in the league with 12 goals in 18 matches.

shocksy · 09-12-2011 12:22pm

€10 Mixed accum for today and tomorrow

Dave Chisnall V Alan Tabern - Over 3.5 180's @ 8/13
Hertha Berlin V Schalke 04 - Over 1.5 @ 2/9
Torquay V Barnet - BTTS @ 4/7
Sporting Braga V Pacos Ferreira - Over 2.5 @ 8/11
Real Madrid V Barcelona - Card Index 90 Points Or More @ Evens

Returns €107

gudede · 09-12-2011 12:23pm

Oh so you don't look at form when you pick out bets??? I didn't back the above bet because I have zero interest in Oz soccer, but if I was doing a bet I would look at form.

Brisbane doing bril in Oz league, unbeaten at home, winning 4 and drawing 1, scoring 16 goals and conceding only 2

That's strong home form and giving out to a guy because they lost is totaly unfair. He didn't make any of ye back the ****ing thing and he didn't ask to be abused for giving a bet recommendation

keane2097 · 09-12-2011 12:29pm

gudede wrote: »

Oh so you don't look at form when you pick out bets??? I didn't back the above bet because I have zero interest in Oz soccer, but if I was doing a bet I would look at form.

Brisbane doing bril in Oz league, unbeaten at home, winning 4 and drawing 1, scoring 16 goals and conceding only 2

That's strong home form and giving out to a guy because they lost is totaly unfair. He didn't make any of ye back the ****ing thing and he didn't ask to be abused for giving a bet recommendation

I didn't give out to anyone.

I'm just pointing out the fact that it's naive to think any bookmaker's price for that game was based on less information than that little snippet of form info.

Looking at a price and thinking "that looks like a good bet" based on information that's easily available on the BBC website is a long road to bustoville. How can you possibly have an edge on the bookie in assessing that line? At very best you've picked out a neutral EV bet, but if that's your long term method you are 100% guaranteed to gradually bleed away your bankroll over time.

inforfun · 09-12-2011 12:37pm

Word of warning for the Dutch Jupiler league tonight.
It is the last match of the 2nd period* so there is more at stake than the usual 3 points in the following matches

Eindhoven - Den Bosch
Emmen - Zwolle
Sparta - Maastricht

Current standings:
P w d l pts gf ga
FC Zwolle 7 7 0 0 21 17 - 1
FC Den Bosch 7 5 0 2 15 19 - 6
Sparta Rotterdam 7 4 2 1 14 19 - 7
FC Emmen 7 4 2 1 14 11 - 11
FC Eindhoven 7 4 1 2 13 12 - 8

Zwolle, having won the 1st period, can be ignored.

Goal difference will be the deciding factor if teams end up with the same amount of points.

Normally you wouldnt think 2x backing Zwolle (1st in the league) against Emmen (15th) but as you can see, Emmen have a lot to play for. So i stay away from that one.

Eindhoven choked when they should have won the 1st when a draw would have been enough away to Maastricht.

Sparta can only win and hope for the best (Eindhoven-Den Bosch/ Eindhoven win or draw)

My bet will be:
Sparta AH-1 / Den Bosch DC @2.72

* winning a period of 8 games qualifies the club for promotion play-offs at the end of the season.

gudede · 09-12-2011 12:50pm

keane2097 wrote: »

I didn't give out to anyone.

I'm just pointing out the fact that it's naive to think any bookmaker's price for that game was based on less information than that little snippet of form info.

Looking at a price and thinking "that looks like a good bet" based on information that's easily available on the BBC website is a long road to bustoville. How can you possibly have an edge on the bookie in assessing that line? At very best you've picked out a neutral EV bet, but if that's your long term method you are 100% guaranteed to gradually bleed away your bankroll over time.

Sorry I know you didn't give out about the bet and I didn't mean to imply it was you that gave out. I'm just annoyed that Nodin had a dig for no reason. I take your point about the snippet of information but it's still up to one's self to do more research and back the think if they want to.

keane2097 · 09-12-2011 12:57pm

gudede wrote: »

Sorry I know you didn't give out about the bet and I didn't mean to imply it was you that gave out. I'm just annoyed that Nodin had a dig for no reason. I take your point about the snippet of information but it's still up to one's self to do more research and back the think if they want to.

Ah sure you can't be listening to people like that!

I'm just trying to give people a bit of advice anyway - people placing bets and following bets, if it's taken on board and stops people losing their money I'm delighted, if not how bad.

Lasagna Diarra · 09-12-2011 1:21pm

Duisburg - Karlsruhe : under 2.5

Obolon Kiev - Tavriya : under 2.5 / Braga to win

SteelyDanJalapeno · 09-12-2011 1:27pm

keane2097 wrote: »

I didn't give out to anyone.

I'm just pointing out the fact that it's naive to think any bookmaker's price for that game was based on less information than that little snippet of form info.

Looking at a price and thinking "that looks like a good bet" based on information that's easily available on the BBC website is a long road to bustoville. How can you possibly have an edge on the bookie in assessing that line? At very best you've picked out a neutral EV bet, but if that's your long term method you are 100% guaranteed to gradually bleed away your bankroll over time.

I'd mostly agree with you, but its also naive to think that choosing the lower priced team will result in better success rates.

keane2097 · 09-12-2011 1:34pm

TiltedBrain wrote: »

I'd mostly agree with you, but its also naive to think that choosing the lower priced team will result in better success rates.

I'm not sure what you mean about backing lower priced teams and success rates - I obv gave off an impression I didn't mean to in my post somewhere along the way?

A price can be out regardless of it being a high price or a low price obv, my point is just that you probably (definitely in the long run) won't spot the incorrect prices with rudimentary analysis.

As an illustration, a bet like Yardie's El Classico cards bet is a good example of a good bet IMO. He's found a particular bookmaker (VC) who disagrees with the rest of the bookmakers fairly substantially. We obv know then that someone has got this wrong, it might be VC or it might be everyone else. By doing some analysis of the variables, it became fairly clear that it was VC who had made the mistake. That's a spot where you have an edge then, so you should bet on it.

EDIT:

To clarify a bit further, I'm not saying that looking at stuff like form and that isn't a decent way to pick winners, but picking winners isn't what's important. If you have a fantastic intuitive ability to pick winners you're still at best only going to have a <10% edge over the bookie.

If you give up this 10% by backing even money shots at worse than 10/11 you simply can't mathematically win, and most of us have a much smaller edge than 10% IMO.

Price is king, people just need to read a bit into why because when it sinks in you'll be a 10x more successful bettor.

PaddyTheNth · 09-12-2011 1:44pm

kryogen wrote: »

I think I hate accums!! good luck with it though

For anyone interested Barcelona can be got at 15/8 this weekend v Real Madrid, Madrid are playing some great stuff at the moment but Barcelona are Barcelona and simply cant be ignored at that price imo, how many times will you get the chance to back them at just under 2/1??

worth a small bet imo

Also the card index is 5/6 over 65 which is more then generous in a classico

Will Hill have a special on this:

Ronaldo anytime + Madrid win: 5/2
Messi anytime + Barca win: 11/4

Tempted by the Ronaldo bet.

Their cards market is crap.

Derek! · 09-12-2011 1:57pm

Nodin_ wrote: »

Hmm Melbourne is hammering Brisbane at the moment... I don't think anyone in this forum has a clue. Glad I didn't follow you into bankruptcy

I dont know how pricks like this can come on here and get away with sayin **** like this

Nodin_ · 09-12-2011 2:36pm

Look - we can post ludicrous bets here all day long and say things like Brisbane are a sure winner against Melbourne, but the truth is it's all a bunch of shiite talk. The pearls of wisdom from the so-called "experts" on this forum are no better than the opinion of the drunk guy at the bar.

This forum should be for giving out genuine advice to punters. Here is a 100% sure bet - Madrid will beat Barcelona in El Classico this weekend.You can put your house on it. If Madrid don't win or if it's a draw, I will leave this forum forever. But that won't happen. Deal?

SteelyDanJalapeno · 09-12-2011 2:42pm

I'm sure you could be banned right now for trolling.

Nodin_ · 09-12-2011 2:44pm

Explain how I'm trolling. The truth hurts, doesn't it? Read back over the suggestions on the last 5 pages. How many of them were successful? ZERO. Nobody here has a clue, gambling away their dole money. A bookies' dream.

Derek! · 09-12-2011 2:46pm

Nodin_ wrote: »

Look - we can post ludicrous bets here all day long and say things like Brisbane are a sure winner against Melbourne, but the truth is it's all a bunch of shiite talk. The pearls of wisdom from the so-called "experts" on this forum are no better than the opinion of the drunk guy at the bar.

This forum should be for giving out genuine advice to punters. Here is a 100% sure bet - Madrid will beat Barcelona in El Classico this weekend.You can put your house on it. If Madrid don't win or if it's a draw, I will leave this forum forever. But that won't happen. Deal?

I personally never seen anyone here claimin to be an expert.
People just post what they like really about the football and we dont abuse them when they get it wrong.

At the end of the day we all have the choice as to whether to bet or not with our money.
Nobody is givin any guarantees with their posts, it's not that easy!

Derek! · 09-12-2011 2:48pm

Nodin_ wrote: »

Explain how I'm trolling. The truth hurts, doesn't it? Read back over the suggestions on the last 5 pages. How many of them were successful? ZERO. Nobody here has a clue, gambling away their dole money. A bookies' dream.

troll.jpg&sa=X&ei=ZxHiTqaSGojRhAeT2ajwAQ&ved=0CAsQ8wc&usg=AFQjCNH65XZS4y1oMdZjT-a86CoTJnsTmw

Nodin_ · 09-12-2011 2:49pm

Fair enough then Derek. It's just that the way some posters go on you'd swear they were millionaires raking in the dough. Very low success rate on the advice given here I'm sure you'll admit. Apologies if I caused any offence. Everyone is entitled to an opinion.

gudede · 09-12-2011 3:07pm

Nodin_ wrote: »

Fair enough then Derek. It's just that the way some posters go on you'd swear they were millionaires raking in the dough. Very low success rate on the advice given here I'm sure you'll admit. Apologies if I caused any offence. Everyone is entitled to an opinion.

Also tomorrow, Brisbane v Melbourne Heart. Brisbane doing bril in Oz league, unbeaten at home, winning 4 and drawing 1, scoring 16 goals and conceding only 2. Melbourne have away record of 1-2-2, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Brisbane -1 @ evens looks good

That's what was posted...Looks good means that he taught given the home form of Brisbane and the away form of Melbourne he taught -1 @ evens looked a good value bet IN HIS MIND. He was nice enough to post up his taughts. It's up to us then to take what he said, review it and then MAKE UP OUR MINDS. He never once said this Brisbane are a sure winner against Melbourne, or called himself a so-called "expert"

Where you have stated This forum should be for giving out genuine advice to punters. Here is a 100% sure bet - Madrid will beat Barcelona in El Classico this weekend.You can put your house on it. If Madrid don't win or if it's a draw, I will leave this forum forever. But that won't happen. Deal? Do you realise that Bara are one of the best football teams ever to play the game, there not Galway UTD (Sorry Galway fan's but he had a hard year) To even come out with a 100% sure bet in this match is stupid. I hope Real don't win now so we can ban you

The Football / Soccer Tips Thread v2

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