The Football / Soccer Tips Thread v2

Headshot · 09-12-2011 1:39am

TiltedBrain wrote: »

Fairly brief,

http://www.betrush.com/pick,Tigre___Velez,21327.html

Ya that made up my mind to do the treble in the 1st place but since im just one match away from 400 euro, I want to more info

hefferboi · 09-12-2011 3:47am

Did an accumulator. Hoping and praying my 2 week losing streak comes to an end.

Barnsley
Milan
Lazio
Arsenal
Az
Celtic
Udinese
Borrusia Dortmund
Lille

E5 @ 30/1

What do ye think?

kryogen · 09-12-2011 10:36am

I think I hate accums!!

good luck with it though

For anyone interested Barcelona can be got at 15/8 this weekend v Real Madrid, Madrid are playing some great stuff at the moment but Barcelona are Barcelona and simply cant be ignored at that price imo, how many times will you get the chance to back them at just under 2/1??

worth a small bet imo

Also the card index is 5/6 over 65 which is more then generous in a classico

gudede · 09-12-2011 11:14am

Good spot Yardie...I got on @ over 65 pity they don't have alternative one's up yet. The ref's last 9 games reffing either Bara or Madrid has produced 53 yellows and 6 reds.

keane2097 · 09-12-2011 11:23am

kryogen wrote: »

I think I hate accums!! good luck with it though

+1

All accumulators typically do is multiply the bookies edge, steer clear IMO unless you've got a low number of very short odds bets which have a clearly defined edge for you, that way you can multiply your edge instead of PP's.

Nodin_ · 09-12-2011 11:25am

wprathead wrote: »

Also tomorrow, Brisbane v Melbourne Heart. Brisbane doing bril in Oz league, unbeaten at home, winning 4 and drawing 1, scoring 16 goals and conceding only 2. Melbourne have away record of 1-2-2, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Brisbane -1 @ evens looks good

Hmm Melbourne is hammering Brisbane at the moment... I don't think anyone in this forum has a clue. Glad I didn't follow you into bankruptcy

kryogen · 09-12-2011 11:36am

Nodin_ wrote: »

Hmm Melbourne is hammering Brisbane at the moment... I don't think anyone in this forum has a clue. Glad I didn't follow you into bankruptcy

lol

quality

inforfun · 09-12-2011 11:42am

Nodin_ wrote: »

Hmm Melbourne is hammering Brisbane at the moment... I don't think anyone in this forum has a clue. Glad I didn't follow you into bankruptcy

Go away, troll.
In name and post.

gudede · 09-12-2011 11:50am

Nodin_ wrote: »

Hmm Melbourne is hammering Brisbane at the moment... I don't think anyone in this forum has a clue. Glad I didn't follow you into bankruptcy

This was your post yesterday

Can we expect many goals in tonight's Juventus V Bologna game? I'm thinking of putting a significant amount on over 2.5 goals to cover last night's losses (fcuking Utd....)

It seems you can find your own way to bankruptcy you twat. The stats given with regards the Brisbane were good and everything looked to be pointing towards a Brisbane win. Just because it didn't win doesn't mean it was a bad bet, more times than not following the stats will get you winners.

keane2097 · 09-12-2011 11:52am

gudede wrote: »

It seems you can find your own way to bankruptcy you twat. The stats given with regards the Brisbane were good and everything looked to be pointing towards a Brisbane win. Just because it didn't win doesn't mean it was a bad bet, more times than not following the stats will get you winners.

In fairness if the only reason for placing it was the two lines worth of a form guide there's no chance it was a good bet.

seanhynes · 09-12-2011 12:07pm

brisbane were on a 30 something game, record unbeaten streak up until last weekend,its strange the effect a defeat can have on a team,also i heard they were missing 1 or 2 key players for the game today..id stay away from them for a few weeks until they get another run of form going.. theyd be a solid shout any other weekend,they were never a bad bet

magherakid · 09-12-2011 12:14pm

One bet for tonight
Torquay v Barnet
Izale McLeod Anytime Goalscorer 11/5 Boylesports shorter everywhere else

He's top goalscorer in the league with 12 goals in 18 matches.

shocksy · 09-12-2011 12:22pm

€10 Mixed accum for today and tomorrow

Dave Chisnall V Alan Tabern - Over 3.5 180's @ 8/13
Hertha Berlin V Schalke 04 - Over 1.5 @ 2/9
Torquay V Barnet - BTTS @ 4/7
Sporting Braga V Pacos Ferreira - Over 2.5 @ 8/11
Real Madrid V Barcelona - Card Index 90 Points Or More @ Evens

Returns €107

gudede · 09-12-2011 12:23pm

Oh so you don't look at form when you pick out bets??? I didn't back the above bet because I have zero interest in Oz soccer, but if I was doing a bet I would look at form.

Brisbane doing bril in Oz league, unbeaten at home, winning 4 and drawing 1, scoring 16 goals and conceding only 2

That's strong home form and giving out to a guy because they lost is totaly unfair. He didn't make any of ye back the ****ing thing and he didn't ask to be abused for giving a bet recommendation

keane2097 · 09-12-2011 12:29pm

gudede wrote: »

Oh so you don't look at form when you pick out bets??? I didn't back the above bet because I have zero interest in Oz soccer, but if I was doing a bet I would look at form.

Brisbane doing bril in Oz league, unbeaten at home, winning 4 and drawing 1, scoring 16 goals and conceding only 2

That's strong home form and giving out to a guy because they lost is totaly unfair. He didn't make any of ye back the ****ing thing and he didn't ask to be abused for giving a bet recommendation

I didn't give out to anyone.

I'm just pointing out the fact that it's naive to think any bookmaker's price for that game was based on less information than that little snippet of form info.

Looking at a price and thinking "that looks like a good bet" based on information that's easily available on the BBC website is a long road to bustoville. How can you possibly have an edge on the bookie in assessing that line? At very best you've picked out a neutral EV bet, but if that's your long term method you are 100% guaranteed to gradually bleed away your bankroll over time.

inforfun · 09-12-2011 12:37pm

Word of warning for the Dutch Jupiler league tonight.
It is the last match of the 2nd period* so there is more at stake than the usual 3 points in the following matches

Eindhoven - Den Bosch
Emmen - Zwolle
Sparta - Maastricht

Current standings:
P w d l pts gf ga
FC Zwolle 7 7 0 0 21 17 - 1
FC Den Bosch 7 5 0 2 15 19 - 6
Sparta Rotterdam 7 4 2 1 14 19 - 7
FC Emmen 7 4 2 1 14 11 - 11
FC Eindhoven 7 4 1 2 13 12 - 8

Zwolle, having won the 1st period, can be ignored.

Goal difference will be the deciding factor if teams end up with the same amount of points.

Normally you wouldnt think 2x backing Zwolle (1st in the league) against Emmen (15th) but as you can see, Emmen have a lot to play for. So i stay away from that one.

Eindhoven choked when they should have won the 1st when a draw would have been enough away to Maastricht.

Sparta can only win and hope for the best (Eindhoven-Den Bosch/ Eindhoven win or draw)

My bet will be:
Sparta AH-1 / Den Bosch DC @2.72

* winning a period of 8 games qualifies the club for promotion play-offs at the end of the season.

gudede · 09-12-2011 12:50pm

keane2097 wrote: »

I didn't give out to anyone.

I'm just pointing out the fact that it's naive to think any bookmaker's price for that game was based on less information than that little snippet of form info.

Looking at a price and thinking "that looks like a good bet" based on information that's easily available on the BBC website is a long road to bustoville. How can you possibly have an edge on the bookie in assessing that line? At very best you've picked out a neutral EV bet, but if that's your long term method you are 100% guaranteed to gradually bleed away your bankroll over time.

Sorry I know you didn't give out about the bet and I didn't mean to imply it was you that gave out. I'm just annoyed that Nodin had a dig for no reason. I take your point about the snippet of information but it's still up to one's self to do more research and back the think if they want to.

keane2097 · 09-12-2011 12:57pm

gudede wrote: »

Sorry I know you didn't give out about the bet and I didn't mean to imply it was you that gave out. I'm just annoyed that Nodin had a dig for no reason. I take your point about the snippet of information but it's still up to one's self to do more research and back the think if they want to.

Ah sure you can't be listening to people like that!

I'm just trying to give people a bit of advice anyway - people placing bets and following bets, if it's taken on board and stops people losing their money I'm delighted, if not how bad.

Lasagna Diarra · 09-12-2011 1:21pm

Duisburg - Karlsruhe : under 2.5

Obolon Kiev - Tavriya : under 2.5 / Braga to win

SteelyDanJalapeno · 09-12-2011 1:27pm

keane2097 wrote: »

I didn't give out to anyone.

I'm just pointing out the fact that it's naive to think any bookmaker's price for that game was based on less information than that little snippet of form info.

Looking at a price and thinking "that looks like a good bet" based on information that's easily available on the BBC website is a long road to bustoville. How can you possibly have an edge on the bookie in assessing that line? At very best you've picked out a neutral EV bet, but if that's your long term method you are 100% guaranteed to gradually bleed away your bankroll over time.

I'd mostly agree with you, but its also naive to think that choosing the lower priced team will result in better success rates.

keane2097 · 09-12-2011 1:34pm

TiltedBrain wrote: »

I'd mostly agree with you, but its also naive to think that choosing the lower priced team will result in better success rates.

I'm not sure what you mean about backing lower priced teams and success rates - I obv gave off an impression I didn't mean to in my post somewhere along the way?

A price can be out regardless of it being a high price or a low price obv, my point is just that you probably (definitely in the long run) won't spot the incorrect prices with rudimentary analysis.

As an illustration, a bet like Yardie's El Classico cards bet is a good example of a good bet IMO. He's found a particular bookmaker (VC) who disagrees with the rest of the bookmakers fairly substantially. We obv know then that someone has got this wrong, it might be VC or it might be everyone else. By doing some analysis of the variables, it became fairly clear that it was VC who had made the mistake. That's a spot where you have an edge then, so you should bet on it.

EDIT:

To clarify a bit further, I'm not saying that looking at stuff like form and that isn't a decent way to pick winners, but picking winners isn't what's important. If you have a fantastic intuitive ability to pick winners you're still at best only going to have a <10% edge over the bookie.

If you give up this 10% by backing even money shots at worse than 10/11 you simply can't mathematically win, and most of us have a much smaller edge than 10% IMO.

Price is king, people just need to read a bit into why because when it sinks in you'll be a 10x more successful bettor.

PaddyTheNth · 09-12-2011 1:44pm

kryogen wrote: »

I think I hate accums!! good luck with it though

For anyone interested Barcelona can be got at 15/8 this weekend v Real Madrid, Madrid are playing some great stuff at the moment but Barcelona are Barcelona and simply cant be ignored at that price imo, how many times will you get the chance to back them at just under 2/1??

worth a small bet imo

Also the card index is 5/6 over 65 which is more then generous in a classico

Will Hill have a special on this:

Ronaldo anytime + Madrid win: 5/2
Messi anytime + Barca win: 11/4

Tempted by the Ronaldo bet.

Their cards market is crap.

Derek! · 09-12-2011 1:57pm

Nodin_ wrote: »

Hmm Melbourne is hammering Brisbane at the moment... I don't think anyone in this forum has a clue. Glad I didn't follow you into bankruptcy

I dont know how pricks like this can come on here and get away with sayin **** like this

Nodin_ · 09-12-2011 2:36pm

Look - we can post ludicrous bets here all day long and say things like Brisbane are a sure winner against Melbourne, but the truth is it's all a bunch of shiite talk. The pearls of wisdom from the so-called "experts" on this forum are no better than the opinion of the drunk guy at the bar.

This forum should be for giving out genuine advice to punters. Here is a 100% sure bet - Madrid will beat Barcelona in El Classico this weekend.You can put your house on it. If Madrid don't win or if it's a draw, I will leave this forum forever. But that won't happen. Deal?

SteelyDanJalapeno · 09-12-2011 2:42pm

I'm sure you could be banned right now for trolling.

Nodin_ · 09-12-2011 2:44pm

Explain how I'm trolling. The truth hurts, doesn't it? Read back over the suggestions on the last 5 pages. How many of them were successful? ZERO. Nobody here has a clue, gambling away their dole money. A bookies' dream.

Derek! · 09-12-2011 2:46pm

Nodin_ wrote: »

Look - we can post ludicrous bets here all day long and say things like Brisbane are a sure winner against Melbourne, but the truth is it's all a bunch of shiite talk. The pearls of wisdom from the so-called "experts" on this forum are no better than the opinion of the drunk guy at the bar.

This forum should be for giving out genuine advice to punters. Here is a 100% sure bet - Madrid will beat Barcelona in El Classico this weekend.You can put your house on it. If Madrid don't win or if it's a draw, I will leave this forum forever. But that won't happen. Deal?

I personally never seen anyone here claimin to be an expert.
People just post what they like really about the football and we dont abuse them when they get it wrong.

At the end of the day we all have the choice as to whether to bet or not with our money.
Nobody is givin any guarantees with their posts, it's not that easy!

Derek! · 09-12-2011 2:48pm

Nodin_ wrote: »

Explain how I'm trolling. The truth hurts, doesn't it? Read back over the suggestions on the last 5 pages. How many of them were successful? ZERO. Nobody here has a clue, gambling away their dole money. A bookies' dream.

troll.jpg&sa=X&ei=ZxHiTqaSGojRhAeT2ajwAQ&ved=0CAsQ8wc&usg=AFQjCNH65XZS4y1oMdZjT-a86CoTJnsTmw

Nodin_ · 09-12-2011 2:49pm

Fair enough then Derek. It's just that the way some posters go on you'd swear they were millionaires raking in the dough. Very low success rate on the advice given here I'm sure you'll admit. Apologies if I caused any offence. Everyone is entitled to an opinion.

gudede · 09-12-2011 3:07pm

Nodin_ wrote: »

Fair enough then Derek. It's just that the way some posters go on you'd swear they were millionaires raking in the dough. Very low success rate on the advice given here I'm sure you'll admit. Apologies if I caused any offence. Everyone is entitled to an opinion.

Also tomorrow, Brisbane v Melbourne Heart. Brisbane doing bril in Oz league, unbeaten at home, winning 4 and drawing 1, scoring 16 goals and conceding only 2. Melbourne have away record of 1-2-2, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Brisbane -1 @ evens looks good

That's what was posted...Looks good means that he taught given the home form of Brisbane and the away form of Melbourne he taught -1 @ evens looked a good value bet IN HIS MIND. He was nice enough to post up his taughts. It's up to us then to take what he said, review it and then MAKE UP OUR MINDS. He never once said this Brisbane are a sure winner against Melbourne, or called himself a so-called "expert"

Where you have stated This forum should be for giving out genuine advice to punters. Here is a 100% sure bet - Madrid will beat Barcelona in El Classico this weekend.You can put your house on it. If Madrid don't win or if it's a draw, I will leave this forum forever. But that won't happen. Deal? Do you realise that Bara are one of the best football teams ever to play the game, there not Galway UTD (Sorry Galway fan's but he had a hard year) To even come out with a 100% sure bet in this match is stupid. I hope Real don't win now so we can ban you

The Football / Soccer Tips Thread v2

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