UFC/MMA Gambling. NO AFTER-TIMING

mailburner · 29-08-2020 7:55pm

going for smith sub at 9/1 (888) just because I think it's a
bit too big

3 round fight, better again imo

mailburner · 29-08-2020 11:09pm

same with Viana sub 9/2 opponent has been subbed 3 times and poly likes subs

not brave enough to do a single on robbie but stuck him in a trixie with smith sub and robbie pts
Robbie some price even though I think he might get outpointed, still too big

ASOT · 29-08-2020 11:51pm

mailburner wrote: »

same with Viana sub 9/2 opponent has been subbed 3 times and poly likes subs

not brave enough to do a single on robbie but stuck him in a trixie with smith sub and robbie pts
Robbie some price even though I think he might get outpointed, still too big

Great shout on Viana

tinpib · 05-09-2020 7:16pm

Skimmed the card for my usual highly lucrative picks:

Not a huge amount of form to go on in the opening Smith/Azure fight but Smith at 2.9 seems big, they look like they might be fairly even to me.

Alexander Romanov is the closest thing to a hype train tonight but his price isn't short enough to truly qualify him as one. The fight has all the other hype train traits, he has an impressive record of quick finishes but they are outside the UFC and it's his UFC debut tonight against a vastly experienced De Lima who is 2.2.

I think De la Rosa/Araujo will be close so went with De la Rosa on pts at 3.5 for value.

Went for OSP at 2.1 but not terribly confident as he apparently had Covid only a week or 2 ago????

tinpib · 12-09-2020 2:11pm

An even weaker card on paper than Munhoz/Edgar on 22nd of August, which I scarcely believed was possible, however with 4 women's fights there is some possible value.

Went for Modafferi pts 5.0

Angela Hill pts 2.2

Justine Kish pts 5.0

Julia Avila pts 2.05

Also Ed Herman at 3.0 looks big.

As always just small stakes for interest, otherwise I wouldn't have much motivation to watch the card.

mailburner · 12-09-2020 10:29pm

romanov by sub might be a bit of value at 7/1 (betway) next best is 4s

has 6 sub wins and 5 ko wins yet the ko is odds on

alan patrick pts 9/2 pp can't have bobby green at odds on against anyone

azaitar ko 15/8 pp lots of ko wins and his opponent has been ko'd quite a few times

singles/treble

mailburner · 16-09-2020 8:03pm

cowboy surely overpriced at 11/8 to beat niko price?

He's a better all round fighter in my eyes so unless both start swinging for fences early (niko might try and get it done early) I really see cerrone outpointing or finishing price in the second or third round.
I think this fight is tailor made for cerrone who ought to be very motivated after his recent losses but for me even the performance against pettis will more
than suffice here.

The Floyd p · 17-09-2020 2:42am

mailburner wrote: »

cowboy surely overpriced at 11/8 to beat niko price?

He's a better all round fighter in my eyes so unless both start swinging for fences early (niko might try and get it done early) I really see cerrone outpointing or finishing price in the second or third round.
I think this fight is tailor made for cerrone who ought to be very motivated after his recent losses but for me even the performance against pettis will more
than suffice here.

I'd find it hard to back any fighter that's lost their last 4 fights in a row and been finished in three of them.

Homelander · 17-09-2020 3:37am

Yeah, I couldn't even imagine betting on Cerrone in this fight.

Stranger things have happened, but really, against Price, I can only see a stoppage that goes against him.

Cowboy was a great fighter, but he's one of those who just hasn't remained competitive in his later years.

Glad he's getting good paydays from it though, he's well earned it

mailburner · 17-09-2020 9:11am

The Floyd p wrote: »

I'd find it hard to back any fighter that's lost their last 4 fights in a row and been finished in three of them.

price has lost 3 of his last 5 and been finished in those 3

Thought cerrone got the better of pettis and losing the other three
to conor, tony and justin was inevitable

Price did well to go get as far as the third round with Luque, finished by al hassan and Neal so
recent form is similiar even if cerrone faced the very best out there

I suppose neither are good betting propositions but for me cowboy is value if nothing else

eagle eye · 17-09-2020 9:37am

Cerrone isn't a top three fighter but he's miles better than Price.

mailburner · 17-09-2020 9:26pm

colby pts
chimaev win

double at 2.16

Can anyone see this not coming in?

I know woodley can put anyone away and will hopefully be
more motivated for this but he will in my opinion have to
go five and there's no way on earth he can outpoint colby.

Darren Stewart at 21/10 looks a lively underdog to me, can't believe he's that big v Holland, both are closely matched for me.

al87987 · 18-09-2020 6:51am

mailburner wrote: »

colby pts
chimaev win

double at 2.16

Can anyone see this not coming in?

I know woodley can put anyone away and will hopefully be
more motivated for this but he will in my opinion have to
go five and there's no way on earth he can outpoint colby.

Darren Stewart at 21/10 looks a lively underdog to me, can't believe he's that big v Holland, both are closely matched for me.

Woodley doesn't make it past 3 rounds for me

mailburner · 18-09-2020 9:07am

al87987 wrote: »

Woodley doesn't make it past 3 rounds for me

Wow! Really?

After going 5 with Usman and Burns I'm not seeing how colby finishes tyron unless he taps with exhaustion.

mangobob · 18-09-2020 2:33pm

al87987 wrote: »

Woodley doesn't make it past 3 rounds for me

Well after his little stunt at the press conference, I would be delighted if that were the case.

But to be honest I am not sure about it. I would be pretty confident that he is up for this, given the history between these two. I also don't think Colby poses a significant knockout threat to him, which is what seems to make him hesitate and become gun shy.

Based on the combination of both of those factors I can see Woodley really coming forward and throwing bombs and if he connects it could be a short night for Colby.

On the other hand, the latter has a far superior engine and an incredible output so if he can avoid getting knocked out in the first few rounds, I would favour him over a 5 round fight to get his hand raised in a decision.

mailburner · 18-09-2020 5:18pm

colby and tyron not to touch gloves 2/11 betway :pac:

that's a safe enough bet though I don't think they'll accept a huge stake either

eagle eye · 19-09-2020 4:22pm

I like Cowboy via submission.

Meerschaert is a very dangerous opponent for Chimaev, definitely a big step up in opposition for him and not a guy you want to go to ground with either.
I like Chimaev and I think he's special but this is his first litmus test.

mailburner · 19-09-2020 9:13pm

Alpar pts 5/2
Dern pts 15/4
Spann sub 7/1

three small singles/treble

A lot of the pundits seems to think dern will get a quick enough sub even though markos has only been subbed once...at twice the odds I'll chance pts

Spann has 11 subs, he'll probably need to take Walker down to avoid a ko.

tinpib · 19-09-2020 9:15pm

Usual low stakes value bets.

I have actually done 2pts on Meerschaert, the prices absolutely scream hype train to me. He has bags of experience, 2 of his recent defeats were splits. His opponent has a perfect record, is fast tracked onto the main card, and this is a huge step up in class. Of course he may win easily but the 4.5 on Meerschaert is a crazy price.

My boy with the glass jaw Johnny Walker is 2.5 to win by KO.

Peer pressure on here made me go for Cowboy at 2.2

Marya Bueno Silva on pts 2.87

And I agree Darren Stewart looks too big at 3.3

A very good card IMO, the main card is similar standard to some recent PPV's.

tinpib · 20-09-2020 11:05am

tinpib wrote: »

I have actually done 2pts on Meerschaert, the prices absolutely scream hype train to me. He has bags of experience, 2 of his recent defeats were splits. His opponent has a perfect record, is fast tracked onto the main card, and this is a huge step up in class. Of course he may win easily but the 4.5 on Meerschaert is a crazy price.

:pac: :pac: :pac:

MUFC91CS · 22-09-2020 12:23am

Surely Jan Blachowicz in overpriced at 2/1 to beat Reyes at the weekend? Think it should be much closer than that

ASOT · 22-09-2020 12:55am

MUFC91CS wrote: »

Surely Jan Blachowicz in overpriced at 2/1 to beat Reyes at the weekend? Think it should be much closer than that

I said the same to a mate earlier, the bookies have the main closer odds wise than this, I think it should be the other way around. This fight is much closer in paper than the main event imo.

mailburner · 24-09-2020 10:57am

Took Adesanya on points at 7/2 betway was 4s yesterday with betfred

I fancy him to win and think this is the most likely way he'll get it done and for me it represents value compared to the ko which is 8/5
Adesanya also has an 8 inch reach advantage which will surely be used to good effect.

Costa hasn't gone five either so maybe there's a chance he'll tire late on and if so a late stoppage may be a possibility so a saver on Adesanya by ko in round 5 at 20s with paddy power
I do fear for costa if he goes trying to take the head off adesanya early on which he shouldn't really be doing if he follows a gameplan.

Porthallian · 24-09-2020 12:01pm

mailburner wrote: »

I do fear for costa if he goes trying to take the head off adesanya early on which he shouldn't really be doing if he follows a gameplan.

Dont you think this is his best shot at winning though? Can't see him outpointing or outlasting Izzy. His jiu-jitsu is probably pretty solid but better wrestlers have tried and failed to hold Adesanya down.

eagle eye · 24-09-2020 12:35pm

Yeah I can't see Costa staying calm if he's being outpointed. I can't see any other result except an Adesanya ko. Costa is dangerous though.

mailburner · 24-09-2020 4:57pm

Porthallian wrote: »

Dont you think this is his best shot at winning though? Can't see him outpointing or outlasting Izzy. His jiu-jitsu is probably pretty solid but better wrestlers have tried and failed to hold Adesanya down.

Yes and no
He'll have 10 mins and he'll be done with that approach if it doesn't pay off and the ko will surely come later for Izzy then.
Romero won 2 rounds v Izzy even though I thought 49/46 was more accurate but I'm not sure you can use romero as a gauge either.
I think he'll need to go for broke if the first two rounds don't go his way which is how I see it going but with costa my gut would be that'll he'll go after Izzy early and pay for it.

D.Q · 26-09-2020 12:30am

Gonna do izzy Rd 3 KO I think

mailburner · 26-09-2020 8:43pm

espino sub 8/5

eubanks pts 13/5

treble with izzy pts

more I look at costa fights the more I think izzy by points or by ko round 5 at the very earliest
He's failed to put much lesser fighters away so I'm thinking it'll very
hard to get costa outa there

tinpib · 26-09-2020 8:51pm

Value bets:

Dawadu 2.2

Ketlen Viera pts 2.0

I think Izzy on pts is the bet but I'll cheer on Costa by KO at 3.5, was a special with Hills.

Marques hasnt fought in UFC which normally means I back his opponent, but he is 0/3 in UFC so went with Marques at 2.5

Also did Espino by sub at 2.5

William Knight 2.3

Shane Young 2.1

Good luck all. I will prob end up catching a good chunk of main card live.

d00mk1n · 28-09-2020 10:59pm

Germaine de Randamie opened up evens, now 5/6 vs Julianna Pena.

GDR looks good to me

mailburner · 29-09-2020 9:38am

I fancy gdr also but she'll need to keep it standing which won't
be easy and penas striking although not on the same level is still decent
compared to most of the division

Pena had some success clinching with Valentina and taking valentina down before gettting armbarred and looks quite strong so I do think gdr could struggle early on so it'll be clinch from the start for pena I think and takedown after takedown attempt
If I remember right didn't Nunes even take gdr down for most of that fight which speaks volumes for gdr's striking.

I think it'll be a one sided beating if she can keep it standing though

Mellor · 04-10-2020 12:51am

Taking Josh Culibao win, 2nd sub and 2nd TKO

Mellor · 04-10-2020 12:52am

Taking Josh Culibao win, 2nd sub and 2nd TKO

eagle eye · 11-10-2020 1:57am

I don't understand and how Perez is the outsider in this one coming up. I'm backing him to win inside the distance at 11/4.

mailburner · 15-10-2020 9:44am

I'm a bit surprised Ortega is 13/8 to be beat Jung

He hasn't fought in almost two years but changed camps shortly
after the loss to holloway and has been cricitical of his previous team so
now he has a chance to show the world how much he has improved especially
regarding his striking.

The ko for me is way overpriced at 17/2 even if a sub might seem more likely.
His last 6 wins have been 3 of each and jungs last two losses have been by ko.
I think Jungs agressive style is tailor made for Ortega also.

mailburner · 17-10-2020 8:19pm

Ortega 7/4 main bet

Ortega by ko 10/1 (Betfred)

small bets on ortega to win by ko in rounds 1/2/3/4/5 22s/30/40/60/80/1

small bets on adrade ko 4/1 which probably won't be easy being so much smaller but I don't think she'll have any respect for chookagian's power and will just keep coming at her

almeida ko 11/5 anyones guess how this pans out, the old almeida came out swinging for the fences....probably the same tactics again so it'll probably be exciting while it lasts.

Card starts at 9 which I've just spotted

joeguevara · 18-10-2020 2:42am

mailburner wrote: »

Ortega 7/4 main bet

Ortega by ko 10/1 (Betfred)

small bets on ortega to win by ko in rounds 1/2/3/4/5 22s/30/40/60/80/1

small bets on adrade ko 4/1 which probably won't be easy being so much smaller but I don't think she'll have any respect for chookagian's power and will just keep coming at her

almeida ko 11/5 anyones guess how this pans out, the old almeida came out swinging for the fences....probably the same tactics again so it'll probably be exciting while it lasts.

Card starts at 9 which I've just spotted

Hopefully the KO bets didn’t make your Ortega win redundant. Thought the head strikes when zombie was on ground would have stopped it.

Does KO include TKO as rarely there is an actual KO in ufc. Different interpretation than boxing.

mailburner · 18-10-2020 2:47am

joeguevara wrote: »

Hopefully the KO bets didn’t make your Ortega win redundant. Thought the head strikes when zombie was on ground would have stopped it.

Does KO include TKO as rarely there is an actual KO in ufc. Different interpretation than boxing.

tko would have done, suprised it didn't come
ko bets were only small bets so no real harm done as
had close to my max bet on Ortega....rarely had less
to sweat about, much different fighter now

joeguevara · 18-10-2020 3:04am

mailburner wrote: »

tko would have done, suprised it didn't come
ko bets were only small bets so no real harm done as
had close to my max bet on Ortega....rarely had less
to sweat about, much different fighter now

Honestly thought zombie would win before the fight. Completely outclassed and never really got going. Even in the last two rounds when he new he had to finish he couldn’t do anything. But my god, how he didn’t get knocked out with some of those punches.

Fair play for your win. I know what it feels like to be sweating a result.

D.Q · 19-10-2020 11:49pm

150e on Gaethje to win.

Very possibly the stupidest money I've ever spent but sure listen.

Homelander · 20-10-2020 12:19am

D.Q wrote: »

150e on Gaethje to win.

Very possibly the stupidest money I've ever spent but sure listen.

Spent the same on Dustin to beat Khabib even though I knew it was incredibly unlikely.

Justin has a better chance, though still not a comfortable bet. I'll probably still throw €100 on him to win.

mailburner · 20-10-2020 9:35am

The price on Gaethje is huge now at 11/4 and has been drifting all the time.

It's too hard not to back him at those odds!

Mellor · 20-10-2020 10:23pm

mailburner wrote: »

The price on Gaethje is huge now at 11/4 and has been drifting all the time.

It's too hard not to back him at those odds!

What do you think his chances of winning are?
50%? 10%?

Dominant fighters/champions like Khabib become overvalued eventually.

eagle eye · 21-10-2020 12:36am

If a knockout wasn't possible then about 4/1 but it's a big part of MMA so realistically I'd say his odds should be about 2/1 when you consider he's won four in a row by knockout.
We keep hearing about his wrestling ability, if he can stay on his feet he's going to get the knockout.
Being able to hear his coach was a huge help to him in the last fight too and he'll have that advantage again.
I think he's too good of value at his current price not to back him.
If you were getting these odds on similar fighters you'd make a lot of money over time.

Mellor · 21-10-2020 1:35am

eagle eye wrote: »

when you consider he's won four in a row by knockout.

Plus 19 out of 22 wins by knockout overall.

mailburner · 21-10-2020 9:39am

Mellor wrote: »

What do you think his chances of winning are?
50%? 10%?

Dominant fighters/champions like Khabib become overvalued eventually.

I honestly don't know given how Khabib has dominated everyone he's faced but I'd be pricing Gaethje at around 7/4-2/1
He might take Justin down at will and he might struggle to take Justin down so it's very hard to know.

Gaethje does look like he could be his biggest test to date.
Can khabib take him down and keep him there?
My gut feeling tells me he may have to wrestle with Khabib for most
of this in order to win which doesn't bode well for him.

I think Khabibs striking will have improved so much since we last seen him also.

This is Khabibs last big test in the division really so everything after this
won't even be a contest as far as I can see.

Porthallian · 21-10-2020 10:00am

My 2 cents on the fight.
Not sure about other sites, PP have the same odds for a Gaethje win as a points victory for Khabib: 5/2
I know which one I'd prefer.

Justin's 2 losses were by KO/TKO but I see this one going the distance. Big test for Khabib but I think that relentless pressure will eventually tell, and he'll get Justin down enough times to breeze to another decision win.

IMO the only way Justin wins is by a KO or TKO, which is 7/2. It would shock the world and I'd like to see it, but I just can't see past Khabib

Will the year he's had have any effect on the mental side of his fight? Probably not.

Mellor · 21-10-2020 11:28am

mailburner wrote: »

My gut feeling tells me he may have to wrestle with Khabib for most of this in order to win which doesn't bode well for him.

That will tire Khabib out a lot too. If Justin has gas in round 4 and 5. It won’t be fun for Khabin

mailburner · 21-10-2020 1:56pm

Mellor wrote: »

That will tire Khabib out a lot too. If Justin has gas in round 4 and 5. It won’t be fun for Khabin

Wittman might just be the difference between the two.

He'll have the perfect game plan for khabib if there is such a thing

Fromvert · 22-10-2020 3:19pm

Whittaker vs Cannonier priced as a flip stands out when looking at the prices. Now Cannonier is good but when he's moved up a level he's lost (Jan, Reyes and Glover) albeit that was at LHW. Whittaker is one of the best at MW and I'll be backing him to get the win here.

UFC/MMA Gambling. **NO AFTER-TIMING**

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UFC/MMA Gambling. NO AFTER-TIMING