SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING (Watch 2012-2013)

Luisport · 31-12-2012 10:06pm

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XH6RitqNJro

Luisport · 01-01-2013 6:45pm

current warming in progress http://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=150775

Luisport · 01-01-2013 7:40pm

2013Could The Polar Vortex Collapse Like January 1985?
By Andrew at 11:55 AM http://theweathercentre.blogspot.de/2013/01/could-polar-vortex-collapse-like.html

Blizzard 2010 · 02-01-2013 2:12pm

This SSW maybe on the same line as the SSW that occured in January 2009. Looks like it maybe the third and fourth week before we see anything that is if it occurs in the right place.

pistolpetes11 · 03-01-2013 10:19pm

Matt Hugo seems happy with tonights outputs

Matthew Hugo ‏@MattHugo81
Just using latest GFS model, thought it might be of worth to highlight what it's showing for the stratosphere...

Matthew Hugo ‏@MattHugo81
12Z GFS ENS for the AO really take it -ve now from 12th/13th as the signal for high pressure develops over N latitudes.

12Z GFS ENS 5 day avg 2m temp anom chart between 14-19th has most of the UK below average temp wise now. Cooling trend.

Another noteworthy GFS ENS 500mb height anom chart between 14th-18th with higher than avg pressure to the N and NW

pistolpetes11 · 03-01-2013 10:29pm

Matthew Hugo ‏@MattHugo81
Incredible conditions in the stratosphere right now. Temps at 10hPa <-80C N of the UK, yet are near +10C over Russia!

Redsunset · 04-01-2013 12:33pm

SSW forecast.
10hpa Zonal Wind dips below negative at 60n

The warming should filter down more to spike the 30mb chart.

A view of expected time lag. Note that depending on type of strat event, things can change fairly quickly and don't necessarily need the 3 week lag.

By the way anyone saying that this won't give us any cold is just guessing. We have no idea yet what will happen even when the actual event takes place. All models will chopping and changing until they figure out where to send the polar vortices energy. It is fairly possible we miss out on anything worth shouting about but to say nothing will happen at this stage is just being silly.

Jaffusmaximus · 04-01-2013 12:43pm

Redsunset wrote: »

SSW forecast.
10hpa Zonal Wind dips below negative at 60n

The warming should filter down more to spike the 30mb chart.

By the way anyone saying that this won't give us any cold is just guessing. We have no idea yet what will happen even when the actual event takes place. All models will chopping and changing until they figure out where to send the polar vortices energy. It is fairly possible we miss out on anything worth shouting about but to say nothing will happen at the stage is just being silly.

Here is a good quote over on NW by Ian Ferguson regarding reading to much into models pre strat warming be it mild/cold ramping!

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75444-winter-model-discussion-cold-hunting-12z-030113/page__st__20#entry2462809

Redsunset · 04-01-2013 12:53pm

Ah brilliant I'm glad that some folk are talking sense and to have them guys preach it is saying it all really. We will just have to wait until the effects filter down to trop levels so models can finally start piecing the parts of puzzle together.

Redsunset · 07-01-2013 11:42am

I want to congratulate the stratosphere on its hard fought SSW.

Now time to monitor next graphics with interest to see how much propagation we get.
First up is temp anomalies. We can already see the warming starting to filter down

Next up is Zonal wind anomalies. Negative fairly prominent so far and coming down well.
It's all to play for folks. If/when those stronger easterlies interact with the troposphere all models will change so anything there showing now for the long term is just rubbish. Bin them.
Whoever comes off the better of this I say well done. It's all just very fascinating to follow.

Nabber · 07-01-2013 1:12pm

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Matthew Hugo ‏@MattHugo81
Incredible conditions in the stratosphere right now. Temps at 10hPa <-80C N of the UK, yet are near +10C over Russia!

Is +10c possible that high up?

Current 10hp still looks amazing, almost a perfect split.

-68 down as far as Rome, covering almost all of Western Europe

gfsnh-10-6.png?6

BEASTERLY · 07-01-2013 1:12pm

Is it too early to speculate how long this will take to propogate?

Redsunset · 07-01-2013 1:25pm

The easterly upper winds will have a better chance of reaching lower levels because of the reduced westerlies throughout the atmosphere. So not much of a battle to get down. In saying that it's all very complicated up there and I don't like to say this is a walk in the park.

Keep watching and waiting with fingers crossed because as we all know anything that can go wrong normally does.

patneve2 · 07-01-2013 4:22pm

It's started, the pole is on fire! :rolleyes:

kwik · 07-01-2013 5:13pm

How often does an ssw occur?...is it every year or every few years. And does it make a difference what month it would happen in?

maquiladora · 07-01-2013 5:58pm

kwik wrote: »

How often does an ssw occur?...is it every year or every few years. And does it make a difference what month it would happen in?

Usually about every 2 years or so.

http://curriculum.pmartineau.webfactional.com/ssw-animations/

kwik · 07-01-2013 6:00pm

maquiladora wrote: »

Usually about every 2 years or so.

http://curriculum.pmartineau.webfactional.com/ssw-animations/

Cheers for that maquiladora

Redsunset · 08-01-2013 9:38am

Posting this again about comparison to 84-85 winter with a little extra info.

As regards the QBO, conditions now are extremely similar to 84-85 winter. It was a double winter easterly QBO where the previous autumn conditions were almost a match to now. Guess what happened next? Not saying same will happen mind.

QBO DATA

1983
10.85 11.40 12.17 13.81 11.93 3.12 -3.38 -6.53 -7.75 -10.12 -10.29 -11.42

1984
-10.65 -11.34 -12.98 -14.58 -15.05 -17.97 -25.39 -27.90 -25.44 -21.59 -13.19 -8.16

2011
9.18 10.05 10.44 10.71 10.02 3.90 0.44 -0.49 -2.30 -3.05 -9.09 -16.25

2012
-16.07 -15.25 -16.74 -17.62 -22.04 -25.89 -27.82 -27.93 -26.60 -24.51 -18.95 -10.02

Comparing the two sets we see in both that the easterly QBO only gets going midway into first year of the double.It takes many months for the westerly influence to clear before the ongoing easterly QBO can reach down and influence matters like now. Hope this helps.

Now the warming that took place especially at the 10 hpa level )was a record in Jan 85 so a bit to find yet on that one but not a million miles off and still climbing.

Once again this is just to satisfy my own curiosity and seeing if we can get a similar tropospheric response.

maw368 · 08-01-2013 12:39pm

I think it has alreay beaten the 1985 record. It appears on your graph that it hits about -30 and this morning it appears to be hitting -25.

Or am I misunderstanding something? I don't know anything about SSW.

http://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=core&module=attach§ion=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=151822

Redsunset · 08-01-2013 3:29pm

That's directly over the pole graph and different to the one I'm showing which is 90n to 65n.

maquiladora · 08-01-2013 3:34pm

The ongoing warming (still goin straight up) has now broken the 30 year record for this date.

Very impressive considering it started way down around the record low mark for that time!

Redsunset · 08-01-2013 3:41pm

Yes climb oh little one. I be happy with another 15c warming. Need every help we can get.

maw368 · 08-01-2013 4:14pm

I may have compared the wrong graph but it happened in the end anyway thank god. I need some snow, I still got winter gear from last year that hasn't been tested yet

Redsunset · 08-01-2013 4:19pm

Its only hitting about -37 at the moment. 1985 hit about -27. So not beating it yet even though it is a record for said date. CLIMB PLEASE.

maw368 · 08-01-2013 4:26pm

Sorry, was having a bit of a backward moment and incorrectly understood Maquiladora. Is there anyway to gauge if it is near peaking or if it still has energy to rise?

hotwhiskey · 08-01-2013 4:26pm

Redsunset wrote: »

Its only hitting about -37 at the moment. 1985 hit about -27. So not beating it yet even though it is a record for said date. CLIMB PLEASE.

Do you mind me asking Red are these readings taking daily or weekly and is measured by satellite.

Pangea · 08-01-2013 6:51pm

Met Uk latest facebook post

You may have heard talk of the UK possibly seeing some colder weather next week and that ‘things going on’ in the upper atmosphere may be playing a part.

The ‘thing’ happening in the atmosphere is known as Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) which we've explained in more detail in our latest blog...

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2013/01/08/what-is-a-sudden-stratospheric-warming-ssw/

andrioolis · 09-01-2013 10:53am

I understand that this is not a right forum to post it but does SSW has any effect on massive heat wave in Australia?

compsys · 09-01-2013 7:56pm

From the Daily Mail website of all places. In fairness, if it's correct, then it's the simplest and best explanation of SSW that I've read so far.

CHANGES TO UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING COLD WEATHER

The extreme cold weather which is forecast to affect much of Britain next week is linked to changes in the upper atmosphere.

This is known as Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) which always attracts interest in the UK because it is often linked to the onset of cold weather.

It involves rapid warming in just a couple of days in the stratosphere, about 10 - 50km up.

Whenever we are affected by an SSW it brings easterly winds which alter the UK weather patterns. This is because we normally expect our weather to come from the west.

The easterly winds weaken areas of low pressure and move our jet stream south. This creates high pressure over the North Atlantic and blocks mild Atlantic air.

This drags in cold air from the continent to the east. More often than not a cold period follows an SSW.

Full article here:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2259376/All-Britain-prepare-snow-weekend-warns-Met-Office-rare-weather-phenomenon-set-cause-freeze.html

Redsunset · 11-01-2013 2:41am

Hi there everyone, are we having fun or has the twisted models infected your minds so that you can barely fit in anything of normal daily life anymore.

Tick Tock, Tick Tock, are you ready for the block says the Stratospheric clock.

Mixing down well over the next 10 plus days. Strat conditions are currently modeled wonderfully to favour eventual height rises to the north. I'm beginning to think this could be Oh so memorable and go down as one of the classics. Could be alot of southern tracking lows if this does indeed go to plan. Sorry for not giving too much interest in the short term but I'm in my boat fishing for shark not trout.

The great white shark Siberian army are readying themselves for a conquest to conquer. The question is, how much of Europe's farm lands will they smother the life out of before the King of the Atlantic can once again banish them from his greedy hands.

Seriously though there is superb potential coming. This is a major ramp from me and the biggest I've ever done simply because the Strat Warming is strong and positions are beginning to look favorably on us. The 10hpa zonal wind at 60N is forecast to stay negative for quite some time and this keeps the official SSW ongoing. What madness can become of this?

Time will most certainly tell but I think the AO is likely to fall like a stone when things get really moving. Patience is needed folks, Rome wasn't built in a day.

Once again I stress the POTENTIAL of us staring down the barrel of this loaded gun.

Jaffusmaximus · 11-01-2013 10:46am

Thanks very much for you and Pistolpetes strat updates. I think its very safe to say that we are entering a UNIQUE phase in our weather and whatever way this pans out it will be very memorable (for some folk)

Redsunset · 11-01-2013 12:09pm

We don't want to see any more bumps in the road at 1000.
Slows progress to downwelling.

Redsunset · 11-01-2013 1:30pm

Forgot to post up the StratAlerts for ye.

Here's latest. Note the couple days lag.

STRATALERT TOKYO 11 JAN 2013 0500 UTC

30-HPA ANALYSIS 1200UTC 09 JAN

1. COLD MINUS 77 58N 102W, COLD MINUS 73 50N 52E, WARM MINUS 32 65N 138E, LOW 220 68N 92W, LOW 233 60N 77E, HIGH 370 48N 168W.

2. CONDITIONS AT 30-HPA HEIGHT FIELD,
POLAR VORTEX SPLIT INTO TWO OVER NORTHERN CANADA AND OVER WESTERN SIBERIA. COLD AIR LIES OVER NORTHERN CANADA AND NEAR WESTERN RUSSIA. WARM AIR LIES OVER EASTERN SIBERIA. IN THE ZONAL MEAN FIELD, EASTERLY WIND IS OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE STRATOSHPHERE OVER THE POLAR REGION.

3. STRATALERT EXISTS.
MAJOR WARMING HAS CONTINUED AT 30-HPA. TEMPERATURE NEAR THE ARCTIC COAST OF CENTRAL SIBERIA INCREASED WITH MAXIMUM 38 DEGREES FROM 2 JAN TO 9 JAN 2013. REMARK: THE HEIGHT DATA SHOULD BE READ IN DECAMETERS ADDING 20 KILOMETERS.=

patneve2 · 11-01-2013 2:41pm

Question: Was the cold spell of Feb. 2009 a result of stratospheric warming or not?

Redsunset · 11-01-2013 4:36pm

patneve2 wrote: »

Question: Was the cold spell of Feb. 2009 a result of stratospheric warming or not?

Yes was a record breaker and the vortex split. Energy was so great that it fought it's way during a westerly QBO.

Jaffusmaximus · 11-01-2013 4:38pm

Hi Red could we be on for another record breaker?

odyboody · 11-01-2013 4:39pm

Here's a question which has been worrying me.
My understanding is that SSW is a fairly recent observation with only historical data to look at i.e. we have not had a definite example of SSW being identified which has then led to extreme cold for this part of the world.
One of the reasons being proposed for the poor performance of the models recently is that they are not factoring in the SSW. My worry is that they are in fact including this data and it is this thats causing them to be all over the place.:(
Someone please reassure me all will be OK.

Redsunset · 11-01-2013 4:49pm

Think she might of peaked now however further warmings are forecast to keep temps running high enough to keep a disrupted Polar Vortex. Its all about where the daughter vortices spin off and where blocking can then set up.

Models should be picking up the Interference hence the confusion.

By the way Feb 09 snow for East while brief was a direct result of the warming.

odyboody · 11-01-2013 5:09pm

Cheers Red,
Suppose my question is , was the 09 SSW identified as an event which could bring cold and lived up to its billing, or is this the first identified event prior to cold and we are waiting for it to verify

Mr Bumble · 11-01-2013 5:33pm

Much easier to understand what's happening the SSW here I must say. The netweather SSW thread is extraordinarily complex reading for ordinary joes and I can't quite figure out whether the prediction that the SSW will be a staged feature which has three tries at killing the PV, is actually unfolding or not Red.
I know the first warming happened but what about the other two and if not, what's the timescale for this thing. If there is a distinct gap between each warming, does that mean that a potentially good scenario for cold in Ireland emerging from the initial stage could be trumped by the next one and so on? Or do subsequent warmings simply reinforce whatever conditions derive from the initial warming?
Also, is it possible that the various modelling systems haven't dealt with SSWs often enough to be able to predict the potential impact...hence the day to day shifting we're seeing?

Redsunset · 11-01-2013 5:54pm

odyboody wrote: »

Cheers Red,
Suppose my question is , was the 09 SSW identified as an event which could bring cold and lived up to its billing, or is this the first identified event prior to cold and we are waiting for it to verify

The 09 event was well flagged. I started a thread on it 4 years ago. Haven't time to look for it but we were all Green then. I presume it's useless now anyway as graphics were all live and will have changed.

Here is a link from my book marks.
http://m.earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=36972

Redsunset · 11-01-2013 6:01pm

@ Mr Bumble

All other additional warmings help to keep the PV reforming into its favourite state. It's always trying to reform so it can bottle up the cold. The polar night jet is not happy.

It's a waiting game in seeing where we come out in this. Perhaps Canada/parts of USA come out best but cold is leaking from the pole and is just looking for the gaps to pour through.
Hang fire for a while.

pistolpetes11 · 11-01-2013 6:46pm

Excellent Video here on SSW folks , fill your boots

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/20992173

Trotter · 13-01-2013 2:07am

Excellent video! I'll be using that one in the classroom next week. Thanks!

pistolpetes11 · 13-01-2013 2:50am

Trotter wrote: »

Excellent video! I'll be using that one in the classroom next week. Thanks!

have it as a youtube vid now

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gps2Q1n8oZE

markfla · 13-01-2013 5:37pm

anyone know if the SSW is causing the cold on the west coast of the US? Baltic in AZ, never seen it before.

downwiththatsor · 14-01-2013 9:43pm

Nice graphic of the ssw from matt hugos twitter
http://i50.tinypic.com/1zwgkmd.gif

Mr Bumble · 15-01-2013 12:51am

Remarkable thing.
After watching the chaos in models on the other threads here over the last few weeks why is something so big so predictable....ie once identified, the more learned among us seem to have been able to name dates for the SSW, predict three separate warmings with total confidence and everything has come to pass on schedule. This thread was kicked off again on November 10 and with a reasonably confident prediction that December would brings signs of an impending SSW. Long way of asking a question but if every other facet of weather is so unpredictable, why is an SSW less so....or am i surrounded by savants??:o

BEASTERLY · 15-01-2013 1:16am

Mr Bumble wrote: »

Remarkable thing.
After watching the chaos in models on the other threads here over the last few weeks why is something so big so predictable....ie once identified, the more learned among us seem to have been able to name dates for the SSW, predict three separate warmings with total confidence and everything has come to pass on schedule. This thread was kicked off again on November 10 and with a reasonably confident prediction that December would brings signs of an impending SSW. Long way of asking a question but if every other facet of weather is so unpredictable, why is an SSW less so....or am i surrounded by savants??:o

Tropospheric modeling is so unpredictable because the atmosphere interacts with oceans, landmasses and mountains among other things. Far more variables. Many of which are not possible to model. Due to the butterfly effect, small unpredictable changes on the surface can have big consequences.

The stratosphere doesn't have so may influences and is far more stable. As a result it is much less complex to model. It is also much easier to use your intuition to forecast if you know how the few variable there are interact. This in turn makes forecasts for changes in the stratosphere much more reliable and accurate.

Mr Bumble · 15-01-2013 1:30am

QED!...thanks for that....two more!....is an SSW a wild card event or are there specifics to look for months in advance. Do we know what triggers one? I note that they were first recognised in the 50s and wondered why everyone is so hot on them now?? SImple hype or are they potentially more profound in terms of future modelling??

SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING (Watch 2012-2013)

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