NFL Betting Thread 2014/2015

Hulk Hands · 19-10-2014 2:20pm

Had a decent bet on Jonathon Stewart under 60.5 yards rushing. They picked that number straight outta the sky

Hulk Hands · 19-10-2014 2:23pm

padraig_f wrote: »

Had a crap season so far, and part of it has been poor discipline on my part. Trying to impose some new discipline by estimating lines in advance, and betting off that, which is actually what i used to do, but got out of the habit.

Anyway, what I think the lines should be:

Would you really have the Bengals as 3 points better than the Colts, and the Panthers as a point better than the Packers? I agree with most of them bar those, especially the Texans. Backed them +4 earlier in the week

Billy86 · 19-10-2014 2:25pm

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Had a decent bet on Jonathon Stewart under 60.5 yards rushing. They picked that number straight outta the sky

True and I reckon it should be good, but the Packers have been struggling a lot up front - if you're watching, keep an eye on Mike Pennel who is a UDFA rookie playing NT with Raji out. Struggled really badly at first but has slowly made some improvements against the run recently.

You also better pray Brad Jones doesn't see the field. :pac:

Hulk Hands · 19-10-2014 2:28pm

Have they moved on from Letroy Guion? Terrible he is. The Packers run D would be the worry alright but hopefully they'll be ok. Just a wrong number, should be over/under 40 or so

Billy86 · 19-10-2014 2:50pm

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Have they moved on from Letroy Guion? Terrible he is. The Packers run D would be the worry alright but hopefully they'll be ok. Just a wrong number, should be over/under 40 or so

They're kind of juggling between the two a bit - I just don't get why they didn't bring Jolly or Pickett back the moment Raji went down. Neither would be ideal, but are at least BIG guys and experienced, and both likely would have signed on a one year vet minimum deal. Jolly is still a FA and Pickett only went to the Texans a year or so back. I was half thinking about Newton getting the yards but I figure he will be scrambling a fair bit, something we are terrible at defending.

On that note - keep backing Newton, or at least most of the time. His line is consistently between 230 and 245 yards, and he has only passed for under 250 on one occasion all season, against the Ravens when the Panthers barely had the ball for the entire fourth quarter and subbed him out with 10 minutes left because he had rib/ankle injuries and the game was out of reach. What's crazy is if not for drops, he would be clearing 300 yards week in, week out. Their lack of a running game and defensive issues also mean he is passing a lot (35 attempts per game this season, despite missing the last 10 minutes of both the Ravens and Steelers games). Didn't back him this week because I don't like betting against GB and reckon he will be getting a good bit scrambling, but if his line is under 250 (which it has been every game this year) it is otherwise pretty much an automatic bet for me.

padraig_f · 19-10-2014 3:08pm

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Would you really have the Bengals as 3 points better than the Colts, and the Panthers as a point better than the Packers? I agree with most of them bar those, especially the Texans. Backed them +4 earlier in the week

The Panthers I have rated about the same as the Packers, I think I'm a good bit lower on the Packers than most people. Really should've lost last week to Miami, +3 in turnovers and needed a last second touchdown to win (which Miami kind of blew at the end with their clock management). I think the defense is poor and the offense not as good as people think....3.6 ypc in Miami, 5.5 yards-per-pass, very average numbers.

Indy...similar, below average defense, think the Bengals are a better rounded team.

I guess in general I'm fading QB hype. Not that I'm negative about Rogers and Luck, they deserve their accolades, but I'm more negative about the players/coaching around them.

Hulk Hands · 19-10-2014 3:18pm

Grand. Lambeau would generally get a 4 point homefield advantage from handicappers but thats as subjective as anything I suppose. I cant figure the Panthers out at all so im staying away from their games for now. I'm quite high on the Colts personally, they really should be 5-1 and their wins have generally been comfortable. Tough spot in Houston but they came out ahead. 10 days to prepare for today too, and the Bengals are off an overtime game. In saying that I havent backed anything in it yet.

padraig_f · 19-10-2014 4:15pm

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Grand. Lambeau would generally get a 4 point homefield advantage from handicappers but thats as subjective as anything I suppose. I cant figure the Panthers out at all so im staying away from their games for now. I'm quite high on the Colts personally, they really should be 5-1 and their wins have generally been comfortable. Tough spot in Houston but they came out ahead. 10 days to prepare for today too, and the Bengals are off an overtime game. In saying that I havent backed anything in it yet.

Yeah I just tend to give 3 to everything, but it probably is worth assigning some individual home field advantages.

e.g. Dallas seems to have a lot of road fans lately, so should probably be less than 3 points.

Atlanta had to go to silent count last week when the Bears fans were so loud (though they usually have quite a good home record).

Seattle you probably give 4.

Poorly supported teams like Jacksonville, you should probably give less than 3.

In mid-October I'm happy enough to give Lambeau 3 though, might be a bit different in December.

Hulk Hands · 19-10-2014 4:27pm

Cincy - 3.5
Dallas - 2.5
Denver - 4
Green Bay - 4
Houston - 2.5
Jax - 1.5
KC - 3.5
Miami - 2
New Eng - 3.5
New O - 4.25
NYG - 2.5
NYJ - 2
Philly - 2.5
SF - 2.5
Sea - 5
Tampa - 2

Above are the generally accepted points awarded for each teams homefield advantage. All other teams get the default 3. Those have been updated during the season (Pats started with 4 iirc). Some of them are debateable obviously. The constant positive homefields every year though have been Seattle and New Orleans mostly, with the Pats, Packers and Chiefs also. The Florida teams never really get the default 3, although Miami's was stronger in past. I found these very useful and interesting

skippymac6 · 19-10-2014 6:42pm

Packers on fire early doors

eagle eye · 19-10-2014 9:01pm

Antonio Gates anytime td scorer at evens seems an unreal value bet. I'm on it big.

Billy86 · 20-10-2014 12:48am

Billy86 wrote: »

€15 on each of the following 6pm games, all at 5/6 odds...
- Eddie Lacy over 66.5 rushing yards vs Panthers (worst run defence in the league)
- Flacco over 259.5 passing yards vs Falcons (worst pass defence in the league)
- Kyle Orton over 244.5 passing yards vs Vikings (I believe in you, Orton!)

Will be putting on these later on, just want to see how the first round of games goes as these are all 9 - 9.30 games
- Tony Romo over 258.5 passing yards vs Giants (just have to pray the Cowboys don't get a 20 point lead by half time and run it out!)
- Carson Palmer over 260.5 passing yards @ Raiders
- Larry Fitzgerald over 66.5 receiving yards @ Raiders

Also have a fiver on Lacy/Flacco/Orton/Romo/Palmer from the bets above at 19.7/1 (so €103.56 return if it comes off).

Well, balls.

Flacco finished on 258 yards and would have had plenty more if the Falcons offense had showed up. Lacy was on 63 yards midway through the 3rd quarter... and then got pulled from the game. Palmer wound up just 8 yards shy also, on 253 yards. Orton cleared, at least.

I did put €35 on the Cards -3.5 and Romo 258.5+ yards right before kickoff so wound up at least in profit on the night, but was so close to a cleaning up!

kryogen · 20-10-2014 12:53am

Is there an aftertiming thread around here anywhere?

eagle eye · 20-10-2014 1:32am

kryogen wrote: »

Is there an aftertiming thread around here anywhere?

No aftertiming thread, put up a copy of the betslip and you are ok I think.

skippymac6 · 20-10-2014 12:42pm

skippymac6 wrote: »

This week....

Colts (-3) -- Think that the Bengals will shore up their defence after giving up all those points last week against the bengals but Andrew Luck is playing very well and think they cover.
Jags (+5) -- I know the Browns are on a bit of a role but I can't forget that they were so far behind against Titans and the Jags are slowly improving and think they might keep this close.
Giants (+6.5) -- The Giants were completely embarrassed last week on national television and against their biggest rivals this week I think they bounce back somewhat this week as the Cowboys might be believing their own hype after the massive win last week.
Money Line Treble -- Ravens, Packers & Bills -- Three home teams that should win and they are laying at least 5 points on the handicap line so I'm going to just take the three of them straight up at around 6/4.

Very lucky on the Bills but nice after Geno cost me last week. Giants looked good for awhile but Cowboys just had too many gears for them.

Early look ahead to this week and it must be the highest over/under of the season so far in the GB vs NO game in New Orleans. It's 54.5 which is very high. One of those offences alone could put up that amount of points but that is very high.

Tonight looks a tricky little one. Things certainly point to the Steelers bouncing back but they've been very poor at home this year. I want to back the Texans +3 but I think the right play is the Steelers and because of that I'll sit it out I think.

Hulk Hands · 20-10-2014 2:38pm

Padraig's idea about pricing lines yourself in advance is a very good one, one you'd hope most people would be doing. Here's my (rough) ones in advance of them coming out. Some are very injury dependant and subject to change, namely the Lions, Titans, and of course what happens in tonights game between Texans and Steelers. But generally if there's a brave bookie that I can get on with, with lines up early in the week that is largely different to mine, I jump on it.

skippymac6 · 20-10-2014 3:14pm

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Padraig's idea about pricing lines yourself in advance is a very good one, one you'd hope most people would be doing. Here's my (rough) ones in advance of them coming out. Some are very injury dependant and subject to change, namely the Lions, Titans, and of course what happens in tonights game between Texans and Steelers. But generally if there's a brave bookie that I can get on with, with lines up early in the week that is largely different to mine, I jump on it.

I can't copy that but I've been doing this all year too and it does work well. Also it's good to take note of the earliest lines and compare them to Sunday just before the game. I did my outlook this morning and had this:

Note: I'm doing all full points

Chargers @ Broncos (-7)
Lions @ Falcons (+5) -- not giving ATL any benefit of home field adv
Vikings @ Buccs (-2)
Bills @ Jets (-2)
Bears @ Patriots (-7)
Seahawks @ Panthers (+5)
Dolphins @ Jags (+3)
Ravens @ Bengals (-2)
Texans @ Titans (+3)
Rams @ Chiefs (-6)
Eagles @ Cardinals (-2)
Colts @ Steelers (+2)
Raiders @ Browns (-6)
Packers @ Saints (-1)
Redskins @ Cowboys (-10)

matthew8 · 20-10-2014 4:57pm

Liking the look of Bills +3, Browns -7 and Falcons +3.5.

Bateman · 20-10-2014 5:25pm

I’ve been doing my own lines since Week 2 but I am not sure if it’s done me much good, we still have our biases. I’ve been trying to get at Seattle for a while but missed both Dallas and St Louis

kryogen · 20-10-2014 11:45pm

eagle eye wrote: »

No aftertiming thread, put up a copy of the betslip and you are ok I think.

Wasn't for me

kryogen · 20-10-2014 11:47pm

Handicapping the games yourself is what everyone should be doing. Its where you will spot the value or what you consider to be the value anyway.

UnitedIrishman · 22-10-2014 12:00am

Am I missing something in the Lions/Falcons line?

The line is Lions -3.5. Atlanta just haven't looked any ways functional this season bar the one game Hester ran amok against the Bucs. They've lost their LT, RT and now their backup center is gone to go with their starting center. And now they're up against the best ranked defense. Also Matty Ice's QBR indoor this year - 117.7; outdoor - 76.2. Stafford's stats are almost identical indoor and out.

There's a chance that Megatron will be back Sunday, albeit a small chance.

Might be wrong but I'd have the Lions at least at -6.

skippymac6 · 22-10-2014 10:13am

UnitedIrishman wrote: »

Am I missing something in the Lions/Falcons line?

The line is Lions -3.5. Atlanta just haven't looked any ways functional this season bar the one game Hester ran amok against the Bucs. They've lost their LT, RT and now their backup center is gone to go with their starting center. And now they're up against the best ranked defense. Also Matty Ice's QBR indoor this year - 117.7; outdoor - 76.2. Stafford's stats are almost identical indoor and out.

There's a chance that Megatron will be back Sunday, albeit a small chance.

Might be wrong but I'd have the Lions at least at -6.

Yeah that's what I was stating above, I'd have the line at +5 as I wouldn't be giving the normal 3ish point extra line to teh home team as it's in London. I suppose sometimes (like the Colts vs Texans last week) something can seem so obvious so you're trying to talk yourself out of it but I'd agree with you on backing the lions, the Falcons just seem in dissaray.

One line that I am very interested in and have already taken is Dolphins -4 at the Jags. The Jags have lost their best defensive player and captain Paul Posluszny for the year with a torn pectoral and also their defensive end Alan Branch is out for 6 weeks now too. Added to that their other vocal leader on defence, cornerback Alan Ball is very doubtful with a biceps injury. The Dolphins have looked very good since they went to London beating the Raiders and Bears and only losing to the Packers with a last second play despite being -3 in the turnover stakes that day. They have a top 5 defensive line and against that poor Jacksonville O-Line I think they will stop Robinson and make Bortles beat them which I don't think he is able to do just yet. Dolphins -4 for me.

Hulk Hands · 22-10-2014 1:30pm

Completely forgot the Lions game was on in London! That bet is scratched so. 1 bet so far, Vikings +3 at 10/11

matthew8 · 22-10-2014 9:30pm

1 unit Bills 2.3, 1 unit Texans 1.8 to win.

Bateman · 22-10-2014 11:39pm

Chargers at Broncos -7
Lions at Falcons +3
Rams at Chiefs -2.5
Texans at Titans +2.5
Vikings at Buccaneers +2.5
Seahawks at Panthers +4.5
Ravens at Bengals -2.5
Dolphins at Jaguars +6.5
Bears at Patriots -6.5
Bills at Jets -3.5
Eagles at Cardinals -3
Raiders at Browns -5
Colts at Steelers +2.5
Packers at Saints -1.5
Redskins at Cowboys -9.5

So far anyone who has put their own lines up agrees that the Rams getting a full TD is generous so we should all be backing them, unfashionable and all as they are. I am obviously out/wrong on the game but still couldn't have the Chiefs there.

The other "minor" (TD + FG isn't minor though, I always think there is a big difference between 9.5 and 10) difference I like is that I will probably take double figures against the Cowboys in their own place. Covering 2 games in a row as a home favourite seems too consistent for them.

TechnoPool · 23-10-2014 2:04am

ct 21, 2014
1:14 PM
Combination
Green Bay at New Orleans (Alternate Spread)
Green Bay +5 1.40 Open
Indianapolis at Pittsburgh (Alternate Spread)
Indianapolis +2.50 1.38 Open
Miami at Jacksonville (Alternate Spread)
Miami -2.50 1.45 Open 30.00

Oct 20, 2014
10:07 PM
Combination
Miami at Jacksonville (Alternate Spread)
Miami -2.50 1.50 Open
Green Bay at New Orleans
Green Bay +1 1.91 Open 50.00

My first two this weekend.

eagle eye · 23-10-2014 3:35am

How are you guys doing your own handicapping?

For example Kansas City. They have only played two games at home so far. They have faced three of the top ten teams in the league and they are 3-3. The most points that has been scored against them is 26 in the season opener, a home game, by the Tennessee Titans.

Basically when you look at their record the key to their losses has been the opposing D. They have lost to the Titans(20th), @Broncos(6th) and @49ers(2nd) in total defense.

The Rams are 23rd in total D and 13th in total Offense. if we just take the season opener as being too soon for them then this doesn't look like a good recipe for a close game in Kansas to me. They can pound the ball on the ground and even a good rushing D like the Rams is not going contain Charles and Davis. The real key is this game is keeping Alex Smith from putting up decent yardage and I don't see the Rams doing that.

I think this game could be very lopsided and I'd predict the Chiefs to score somewhere between 30 and 35. I don't see the Rams putting up anymore than 23 and that is the maximum I'd expect them to score with their range being 17-23.

I'd have that game as KC -11.5

TechnoPool · 23-10-2014 4:21am

depends on what site you use.

I use SportInteraction.

let me know if you wanna sign up ill give you my referral code

skippymac6 · 23-10-2014 9:55am

eagle eye wrote: »

How are you guys doing your own handicapping?

For example Kansas City. They have only played two games at home so far. They have faced three of the top ten teams in the league and they are 3-3. The most points that has been scored against them is 26 in the season opener, a home game, by the Tennessee Titans.

Basically when you look at their record the key to their losses has been the opposing D. They have lost to the Titans(20th), @Broncos(6th) and @49ers(2nd) in total defense.

The Rams are 23rd in total D and 13th in total Offense. if we just take the season opener as being too soon for them then this doesn't look like a good recipe for a close game in Kansas to me. They can pound the ball on the ground and even a good rushing D like the Rams is not going contain Charles and Davis. The real key is this game is keeping Alex Smith from putting up decent yardage and I don't see the Rams doing that.

I think this game could be very lopsided and I'd predict the Chiefs to score somewhere between 30 and 35. I don't see the Rams putting up anymore than 23 and that is the maximum I'd expect them to score with their range being 17-23.

I'd have that game as KC -11.5

I can see your point in that you obviously think that Kansas City are going to win easy but if you set the line at the points that you think that they are going to win by (in or around) then you don't leave yourself much wiggle room.

When pricing a game I'd generally look at the matchup of offence vs defence for both teams, take into account recent form and then obviously where the game is being played -- dome, outdoors etc -- and that effect it has on both teams (in this case a dome team playing outdoors).

I set this game at 6 points as I can see it either being a close win for the Chiefs or a mid to high range win. Since the chiefs have bombed in the first game they have been very consistent since beating the patriots, dolphins and Chargers and going down narrowly to the Broncos and the 49rs by a TD or less in both cases. That is really good form. However the Rams are playing hard for coach Fisher. After their own brutal loss at home to the Vikings they beat the panthers in Carolina, should have beaten the Cowboys when they threw away a 21 point lead, lost to the Eagles by 6 points when they allowed three TDs on special teams and defence and in their last two games they blew a 14 point lead against the 49rs and beat the reigning SB champions Seahawks last time up.

Unlike most 2-4 teams, I think they are definitely playing for their coach and after last weeks win their confidence will be high. The Chiefs are playing with massive confidence of their own so that's why I can see it being a "generic" 7 point line from the bookies. It's one of the harder games for me to call this week and probably one I will stay away from but again if you set the line at 10 or over, the correct play would be the Rams, even if they were beaten by 20 if that makes any sense!

NFL Betting Thread 2014/2015

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