NFL Betting Thread 2015/2016

matthew8 · 27-09-2015 11:43pm

Bit of a betting angle from today perhaps. Usually it's very tough to back teams on high handicaps because the head coach eases up, but Arians's Cardinals just refuse to stop playing, so you can be a lot more confident of backing them on a big handicap as you're less likely to get beaten in garbage time.

NFLBettingTips · 28-09-2015 5:38am

Went 5-0 on Main Plays on my Tipping Page this week.

skippymac6 · 28-09-2015 8:38am

skippymac6 wrote: »

Tonight I like the Redskins +3.5. Quite rightly a lot of pundits are leaning towards the Giants as it's a "must win" scenario for them but after the first two games, the redskins look the better team to me. Their defence is playing lights out with Jason Hatcher finally repaying the faith they showed in him and Kerrigan and Murphy looking good off the edges. The Giants have a very good offence but keep finding ways to lose close games and I think it might happen again this week.

Steelers -1.5 is one of those so called "obvious" bets that looks nailed on but the Rams are a different proposition in their dome. I just feel that with Bell back this week, their offence will step up to another level and they'll need it against that great defence. The Steelers offensive line has been quietly effective the first two games and I think they can continue to give Big Ben enough time to find Brown, Wheaton, Bell etc to get the win.

The Colts -3 would have been about -5/6 if they beat the Jets. The one big problem about the Colts is their offensive line. They don't generate enough sacks either probably and they seem from the outside as a bit of a "soft" team. However, I think they do enough in this one to get their first win of the year. Mariota came down to earth last week and I just feel that Luck might strap this game on his back and answer a few critics that have come out again about his top 5 QB status claims.

Last bet is Seahawks -12.5. Yes it's a big spread but the Bears with Jimmy Clausen as their starting QB might be heading into a buzz saw this Sunday. The Hawks are looking for their first win, they might have Chancellor back, and they are going to look to dominate this week and remind everyone that they are the two time defending NFC champs. I think they make life hell for Clausen and co. and get out of the blocks early and keep the pressure on for 60 minutes.

Steelers and Seahawks land but a late TD foils the Colts spread. 11/14 for the season.

skippymac6 · 28-09-2015 8:47am

matthew8 wrote: »

Bit of a betting angle from today perhaps. Usually it's very tough to back teams on high handicaps because the head coach eases up, but Arians's Cardinals just refuse to stop playing, so you can be a lot more confident of backing them on a big handicap as you're less likely to get beaten in garbage time.

I'd have to lump the Pats in there too, they look like they want to reset the record books from their 16-0 season. If Gronk can stay healthy, that offence is going to go very close to doing just that.

Also some of the form lines are starting to sort themselves out. The 49rs were completely overrated after their week 1 win and so too were the Chargers it seems. Their win over the Lions looks hollow too considering how poor they've looked in their opening matches were their offence just looks devoid of ideas. Stafford certainly doesn't seem 100%. The Dolphins look completely abject and there seems to be no fight in them, looks like they don't want to play for Philbin at all, complete wrong decision keeping him on this year.

It's going to be tough to catch a few of the teams without their starting QB as Big Ben, Cutler, Brees and Romo will all inflate the hcaps against them but teams are just so much worse without their starting QBs and I think you'd be better off backing against these teams until they prove otherwise. Ravens at Steelers on Thursday will be interesting as the Ravens are 0-3 but Vick looked awful when he came in yesterday. Granted he'll have this week in practice knowing that he's to start, but he hasn't done anything for the past few years in relief either.

StringerBell · 28-09-2015 10:56am

I think they will simplify the play book considerably for him, and as he wouldn't have been getting the reps in practice that he will be getting this week he should improve, if the Ravens D can pressure him he will tuck and run also. Looking forward to seeing the line for that one as I suspect Vick may surprise a few people

Ravens Steelers games are normally a nightmare to predict either way though tbh

PokeHerKing · 28-09-2015 8:26pm

GB line has moved to -5.5, THINK I'll be jumping on that. Lots of folks liking the chiefs by the looks of it!

StringerBell · 28-09-2015 8:50pm

I think it will be closer then people think, certainly then the -7.5 they opened at was too high for me, -5.5 is tempting though.

eagle eye · 29-09-2015 1:17am

StringerBell wrote: »

I think it will be closer then people think, certainly then the -7.5 they opened at was too high for me, -5.5 is tempting though.

I think the Packers win it by a big margin in the end. I'm taking them with an alternative handicap of -12.

I'm also on Randall Cobb for 2 or more td's tonight.

PokeHerKing · 29-09-2015 11:40am

Turned a nice profit this wknd, most of my Sunday winnings went on GB -5.5 last night. Surprised it got that low but happy days

StringerBell · 29-09-2015 12:55pm

Great weekend for me overall, could have been a disaster so delighted with how it turned out. Was impressed with the Green Bay O line last night

kennyb3 · 30-09-2015 8:07pm

StringerBell wrote: »

Great weekend for me overall, could have been a disaster so delighted with how it turned out. Was impressed with the Green Bay O line last night

The packers oline is vastly underrated because it doesn't have a 'name' or a star man. They get it done both on the ground and in pass pro. Rodgers mobility helps too but is possibly another reason it's underrated.

StringerBell · 30-09-2015 8:31pm

I wouldn't think they are underrated. They have a lot to prove and are maybe beginning to do it tbh. I would bow to Packers fans knowledge on this one more of course but from what I have seen they are certainly not vastly underrated

eagle eye · 02-10-2015 1:23am

Fancy the Ravens strongly tonight despite their awful start.

It's just I remember how bad the Steelers have been in the past sans Roethlisberger. I think this is exactly the wrong D for Vick to play against.

Also on Taliefero to score a td. He is healthy now and I'd expect him to see goal line work, he could even start or get a timeshare with a struggling Forsett.

Paully D · 04-10-2015 4:34pm

Bears +4 vs Raiders (5/6, Bet365)
Chargers -5.5 vs Browns (21/20, Bet365)

StringerBell · 04-10-2015 5:09pm

Chargers missing 3 or 4 O linemen?

matthew8 · 06-10-2015 6:18pm

Apparently the Bengals have only opened up as one point favourites this week (haven't seen odds on European bookies but some American websites have mentioned it). If true that is absolutely ludicrous. The Seahawks are heavily reliant on home advantage and have looked average while the Bengals have been one of the best teams in the league. Really I'd have thought they'd be favoured by 4.5 points or so.

D9Male · 06-10-2015 7:07pm

That jumped out at me, too. It's a belting bet if Lynch is out in particular.

MrKingsley · 06-10-2015 8:15pm

That and the rams +10 at GB will be a nice little double. I dont see GB walking it.

Put in the Cards -2.5 at the lions and its a 6/1 treble

matthew8 · 06-10-2015 8:31pm

MrKingsley wrote: »

That and the rams +10 at GB will be a nice little double. I dont see GB walking it.

Put in the Cards -2.5 at the lions and its a 6/1 treble

I like the Cards alright, everything went against them against the Rams, 3 fumbles in the red zone all recovered by the Rams and uncharacteristically had to settle for 5 field goals. Those things won't go against them every week. Conversely I though the Rams got all the breaks last week and will do well to be competitive at Lambeau. Foles might be eaten alive.

StringerBell · 06-10-2015 9:11pm

Got all excited by the thought of the Bengals being -1, went to check on bet365 and they have them -3

matthew8 · 07-10-2015 12:14am

I'm on at -2.5 and that is still absolutely cracking. The Seahawks could not have made a worse impression offensively last night. 5 turnstiles would do a better job than their line and the only reason they scored anything at all was because of an absolutely spectacular Wilson play as well as their kicker converting twice from a long distance. Wilson could be savaged by the Bengals pass rush. I'm a bit surprised the Cowboys are +10 also, they've looked pretty tidy even with Romo out. The offensive line is giving Weeden plenty of time and he's able to take advantage. Lee is potentially a big loss, but +10 at home is a best in the league vs. worst in the league sort of handicap, and even if the Patriots are the best team in the league, there's no way the Cowboys are anywhere near the worst.

Gregk961 · 07-10-2015 12:28am

Had a bet lined up on Betvictor, Bengals at 8/11 desposited funds and all and the odds changed as I tried to place the bet. Frustrating to say the least!!

StringerBell · 07-10-2015 10:36am

matthew8 wrote: »

I'm on at -2.5 and that is still absolutely cracking. The Seahawks could not have made a worse impression offensively last night. 5 turnstiles would do a better job than their line and the only reason they scored anything at all was because of an absolutely spectacular Wilson play as well as their kicker converting twice from a long distance. Wilson could be savaged by the Bengals pass rush. I'm a bit surprised the Cowboys are +10 also, they've looked pretty tidy even with Romo out. The offensive line is giving Weeden plenty of time and he's able to take advantage. Lee is potentially a big loss, but +10 at home is a best in the league vs. worst in the league sort of handicap, and even if the Patriots are the best team in the league, there's no way the Cowboys are anywhere near the worst.

Im on the Bengals early alright, haven't looked into anything else yet, busy week with grad ball and work

wardides · 07-10-2015 11:04am

Giants -6.5
Falcons -7
Bengals -2.5
Chargers - 3

Thoughts? Atlanta & Bengals I'm pretty solid about. More San Fran being woeful which has led to the Giants pick, and think Chargers will pip Steelers at home.

poldebruin · 07-10-2015 12:46pm

I can't believe the Patriots are only -8.5 against the depleted (on both sides od the ball) Cowboys this week. Best bet of the weekend imo. I think the Patriots will win in a canter, and they do not suffer from 2nd half coasting that we see from a lot of teams.

D9Male · 07-10-2015 4:37pm

Pats coasted a bit against the Bills, did they not?

skippymac6 · 07-10-2015 4:40pm

matthew8 wrote: »

I'm on at -2.5 and that is still absolutely cracking. The Seahawks could not have made a worse impression offensively last night. 5 turnstiles would do a better job than their line and the only reason they scored anything at all was because of an absolutely spectacular Wilson play as well as their kicker converting twice from a long distance. Wilson could be savaged by the Bengals pass rush. I'm a bit surprised the Cowboys are +10 also, they've looked pretty tidy even with Romo out. The offensive line is giving Weeden plenty of time and he's able to take advantage. Lee is potentially a big loss, but +10 at home is a best in the league vs. worst in the league sort of handicap, and even if the Patriots are the best team in the league, there's no way the Cowboys are anywhere near the worst.

If Dalton can keep the form he has showed so far this year then that Bengals -2.5 looks a good thing for sure. I'd be a bit worried about the Cowboys covering Gronk and the quick screens without Sean Lee there in the middle. They will have to establish the run better than they have in the last two games and Randle out is another loss that they will have to overcome. Weedan has been perfectly adequate but that's it. Teams are just stacking the box against him and he is not throwing it further than 7 or 8 yards on any play apart from when it is absolutely necessary like the Williams TD at the weekend on 4th down.

poldebruin · 07-10-2015 6:09pm

D9Male wrote: »

Pats coasted a bit against the Bills, did they not?

They certainly let them close the gap alright, but it was the Patriots aggression that let the Bills back into it. They were still throwing deep, up 21 in the 4th. Getting strip sacked, going 3 and out. Had they just shut up shop and run the clock the Bills would never have gotten close.

Belichick and Brady vs Garrett and Weeden - it's not fair.

JaMarcusHustle · 07-10-2015 11:24pm

Greg Hardy made some underhanded, albeit light hearted, comments about Giselle and her sister. Brady's reply: "I don't really care what his personal feelings are. I'm just getting ready to play. I'm focusing on my job."

Bet the house on Pats whenever the spread is.

eagle eye · 09-10-2015 1:23am

Same bet for this game for the third year in a row. T Y Hilton to score a td at a very generous 7/5.

You see Hilton doesn't really kick into action for the season until he goes to Houston. Last year he had one td but was unlucky not to have more, he had over 200 yards receiving ax well. He had three I think in 2013, but he has scored a td everytime he has played in this stadium.

StringerBell · 09-10-2015 1:25am

The QB position would give me stress for that bet, but certainly worth riding the run

Paully D · 11-10-2015 12:46pm

Patriots -8.5 (EVS, BetBright)
Broncos -4 (EVS, BetBright)
Packers -8.5 (10/11, BetVictor)
Cardinals -3 (19/20, Boylesports)
Chargers -4 (EVS, Marathonbet)

PokeHerKing · 11-10-2015 3:58pm

Rams +10
Pats -7
Cards -2.5
Bills -2.5
Bengals -2.5
Falcons -7
Saints/Philly o49
Broncos /Oakland u44

Paully D · 12-10-2015 12:30am

Paully D wrote: »

Patriots -8.5 (EVS, BetBright)
Broncos -4 (EVS, BetBright)
Packers -8.5 (10/11, BetVictor)
Cardinals -3 (19/20, Boylesports)
Chargers -4 (EVS, Marathonbet)

4/5 going into Monday Night Football. A big weekend.

9-3 overall for the season so far.

PokeHerKing · 12-10-2015 8:53am

PokeHerKing wrote:

Rams +10 Pats -7 Cards -2.5 Bills -2.5 Bengals -2.5 Falcons -7 Saints/Philly o49 Broncos /Oakland u44

5/7 with Indy in the bag as well, along with the rugby been a good wknd all round. Might see if I can find the chargers -3

PokeHerKing · 12-10-2015 9:53am

Bengals ML, might have to put the wknds winnings on that!

Titans -3 as well

eagle eye · 13-10-2015 1:29am

Three bets tonight, Keenan Allen to score a td @ 21/20, Chargers -3.5 @ 10/11 and Chargers -.5 in the first quarter @ evens.

I have been reigning in my eagerness to bet huge on the Chargers -3.5, just feel that this is going to be a big win for them.

PokeHerKing · 13-10-2015 6:32am

Couldn't find -3 so stayed away, lucky I did!

StringerBell · 13-10-2015 9:54am

Way ou dat

Paully D · 13-10-2015 3:08pm

Chargers lose to make it 4/5 for me this weekend. 9-4 overall.

I haven't looked at next week in any great depth yet, but Bengals (-2.5) and Bears (+3) jumped out at me. Any thoughts lads?

PokeHerKing · 13-10-2015 3:32pm

Paully D wrote: »

Chargers lose to make it 4/5 for me this weekend. 9-4 overall.

I haven't looked at next week in any great depth yet, but Bengals (-2.5) and Bears (+3) jumped out at me. Any thoughts lads?

I took the Bengals straight up @ 5/6 yesterday.

On the road after a tough Seahawks game and Watkins most likely back for the Bills tho, not the lock it might seem.

Cant bet the Bears myself ever. I'm liking Arizona as well.

matthew8 · 13-10-2015 9:49pm

Houston shouldn't be favoured away to Jacksonville. Frankly, the Jaguars have looked a bit better and have home field advantage. I also think the Titans should be favoured by more. Not crazy about the Bengals -3, Manuel is not a huge step down on Taylor and the Bills have shaped pretty well. Packers -10 too, the Chargers defense could be savaged. The second that Pittsburgh had to get aggressive yesterday they walked all over the Chargers. Chargers offensive line also looks shaky and will find life tough against the Packers. I think the Giants and Minnesota have slipped through the first few weeks underrated. Eli is playing out of his skin and Giants +3.5 looks good. Wheels have come off the Chiefs so Minnesota -3.5 looks good.

PokeHerKing · 14-10-2015 3:20am

Surprised to see the line moving against Tennessee, fins look awful so far and a week off ain't fixing that. Sorry I took the titans -3 early now.

On the pats -7.5, can't see Indy livinig with them at all, with or without luck

skippymac6 · 14-10-2015 11:34am

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Surprised to see the line moving against Tennessee, fins look awful so far and a week off ain't fixing that. Sorry I took the titans -3 early now.

On the pats -7.5, can't see Indy livinig with them at all, with or without luck

The Pats will have added incentive this week against the Colts with the wholl Deflategate nonsense and they usually handle the Colts pretty easily anyway. The Dolphins have that "new coach" lift after the sacking of Philbin and also a buy week so I can see why people might be leaning towards them. The Titans have failed to get the job done since week 1 but were arguably unlucky to lose to both the Bills and Colts at home. That would be a game I would stay away from if I was being honest.

Hulk Hands · 14-10-2015 2:38pm

I think the 7/2 Colts looks a decent bet if you can get it. Im going to stay away from the handicap given that its quite likely the Patriots blow them out once more, and its obviously not the kind of solid defensive and run team you usually like to be getting points with. However I find it hard to accept that the Colts have only a 22% shot at winning this one. Luck's back, they should be equally if not more motivated for this one given all factors, and at home obviously. They're still a team that can look magnificent, albiet on occasion. Patriots far more likely winners obviously but wrong price imo

StringerBell · 14-10-2015 3:24pm

7/2 is a bit too skinny for me funnily enough, the Pats have trounced the Colts every time they played for a while now and if Luck is back as expected I actually see that as more of a negative then anything

He has looked like a man taking steps back this year and the O line is going to get him killed. Always good for a pick or two aswell.

Tom is on a mission and I expect the Pats to cover that handicap quite well

StringerBell · 14-10-2015 3:25pm

7/2 is a bit too skinny for me funnily enough, the Pats have trounced the Colts every time they played for a while now and if Luck is back as expected I actually see that as more of a negative then anything

He has looked like a man taking steps back this year and the O line is going to get him killed. Always good for a pick or two aswell.

Tom is on a mission and I expect the Pats to cover that handicap quite well

eagle eye · 15-10-2015 1:40pm

Hulk Hands wrote: »

I think the 7/2 Colts looks a decent bet if you can get it. Im going to stay away from the handicap given that its quite likely the Patriots blow them out once more, and its obviously not the kind of solid defensive and run team you usually like to be getting points with. However I find it hard to accept that the Colts have only a 22% shot at winning this one. Luck's back, they should be equally if not more motivated for this one given all factors, and at home obviously. They're still a team that can look magnificent, albiet on occasion. Patriots far more likely winners obviously but wrong price imo

Ok so the way you really have to look at this is as follows.

Somebody pisses off Tom Brady and the Patriots run wild over that team the next time they meet. The most recent example of this was Greg Hardy getting all mouthy about Giselle and her sister and he even got a few sacks in but look what the Patriots did to Dallas.

Then you have the fact that Andrew Luck is by no means certain to play this game. The man has a sore shoulder and he will not be let play until it's healed because he is their franchise player, he is young and he is good.

You can talk about how the Colts might feel over this but I can tell you that no team is working harder this week than the Patriots who want to go to Indianapolis and beat their biggest ever win there.

Let's have a look at the key stats. The Patriots are 3-1 ATS and 2-0 on the road. The Colts are 1-4 ats and 0-2 at home.

The Patriots are flying high at 4-0 and look really, really good.

The Colts are 3-2 and struggling mightily.

I can only see this game going one way and that is an easy win for the Patriots.

D9Male · 15-10-2015 1:47pm

I think there is a very good chance that the Pats will hose the Colts.

However, I just don't trust the Pats' defence. Maybe I am wrong, I usually am.

Hulk Hands · 15-10-2015 9:20pm

eagle eye wrote: »

Ok so the way you really have to look at this is as follows.

Thats not the way I have to look at it whatsoever. What I "think" is going to happen, or what anyone else thinks, is completely irrelevant. I think the Patriots are far superior and will win fwiw. But the only thing relevant is whether the odds correctly reflect the Colts chances, however small they may be. For example I don't think the Bears have any chance of making the playoffs but if I got offered 100/1 on that id still be all over it like a rash. You haven't said how you would price this game yourself.

Its looking like 4s the Colts will soon become available, and in a league as unpredictable as the NFL, taking a home underdog with the talent of the Colts when they're been given a 20% shot of winning has to be a +EV play in the longrun

NFL Betting Thread 2015/2016

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