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Your Predictions for the Economy Post Lisbon

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2

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    #32
    johnathan woss
    Closed Accounts Posts: 410 ✭✭johnathan woss


    The economy is still absolutely FUBAR but at least now the EU will keep us from dropping into the 3rd world for longer.

    Where do you all the economic geniuses on the no-side think we'd be if
    1) we were forced to leave the Euro
    or
    2) the ECB stopped lending to us

    ???


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    #33
    granite man
    Closed Accounts Posts: 86 ✭✭granite man


    prinz wrote: »
    Yeah I did, could you point out the section establishing the secret reserve EU police though? I must've missed it.

    Ooops, apologies, the garda would sort any mass acts of insurrection out in the same way the old RUC managed to stem the disquiet up North in the 70's. They didn't beg for support from 'outside', did they? Wake up.


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    #34
    granite man
    Closed Accounts Posts: 86 ✭✭granite man


    johnathan woss wrote: »
    The economy is still absolutely FUBAR but at least now the EU will keep us from dropping into the 3rd world for longer.

    Where do you all the economic geniuses on the no-side think we'd be if
    1) we were forced to leave the Euro
    or
    2) the ECB stopped lending to us

    ???

    1/ Leaving the EU was not what Lisbon was about.
    2/ They wouldn't


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    #35
    johnathan woss
    Closed Accounts Posts: 410 ✭✭johnathan woss


    So you think that the elites in the EU have plans to turn it into a facist super state but that they wouldn't force us out and forge ahead with those plans without us ?

    Doesn't add up.


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    #36
    Min
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,550 ✭✭✭Min


    Maybe they work within project indect.


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    #37
    prinz
    Registered Users Posts: 14,598 ✭✭✭✭prinz


    granite man wrote: »
    Ooops, apologies, the garda would sort any mass acts of insurrection out in the same way the old RUC managed to stem the disquiet up North in the 70's..

    News shocker, the gardaí would sort out any riots/mass insurrections :eek:


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    #38
    granite man
    Closed Accounts Posts: 86 ✭✭granite man


    johnathan woss wrote: »
    So you think that the elites in the EU have plans to turn it into a facist super state but that they wouldn't force us out and forge ahead with those plans without us ?

    Doesn't add up.

    It makes perfect sense, we're on the most western boundary of Europe, in tactical terms it is essential for defence. Why do you think the Brits have hung on to the North for so long? Its hardly the blooming economy.


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    #39
    johnathan woss
    Closed Accounts Posts: 410 ✭✭johnathan woss


    Ireland is essential to the defence of the EU ?

    From whom ?

    A USA landing force ?


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    #40
    Fuhrer
    Registered Users Posts: 4,661 ✭✭✭Fuhrer


    johnathan woss wrote: »
    Ireland is essential to the defence of the EU ?

    From whom ?

    A USA landing force ?


    Iceland


    And possible Greenland


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    #41
    hatrickpatrick
    Registered Users Posts: 17,797 ✭✭✭✭hatrickpatrick


    The economy will improve very soon. But it won't have a damn thing to do with Lisbon.


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    #42
    RealityCheck
    Closed Accounts Posts: 695 ✭✭✭RealityCheck


    johnathan woss wrote: »
    Ireland is essential to the defence of the EU ?

    From whom ?

    A USA landing force ?


    Illegal drug traffickers ?


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    #43
    granite man
    Closed Accounts Posts: 86 ✭✭granite man


    johnathan woss wrote: »
    Ireland is essential to the defence of the EU ?

    From whom ?

    A USA landing force ?

    I'd take a guess at Russia.


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    #44
    Fuhrer
    Registered Users Posts: 4,661 ✭✭✭Fuhrer


    granite man wrote: »
    I'd take a guess at Russia.


    Arent they in the east?


    ugh, nevermind.


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    #45
    PaulieD
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 932 ✭✭✭PaulieD


    Sam Vimes wrote: »
    Wait I thought this was a referendum on an EU treaty but you seem to think it was a general election. I'm confused :confused:

    This would have been an electoral loss too many for Fianna Fail. If Lisbon was rejected, Cowen would have been pushed and they would have had to call an election. Willie O'Dea said as much during an RTE interview after the result. Instead, Cowen and Co will claim that they have a mandate to run the country and make the tough decisions. And continue they will, until the summer of 2012. You voted Yes for jobs alright, Fianna Fails.


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    #46
    Fuhrer
    Registered Users Posts: 4,661 ✭✭✭Fuhrer


    PaulieD wrote: »
    This would have been an electoral loss too many for Fianna Fail. If Lisbon was rejected, Cowen would have been pushed and they would have had to call an election. Willie O'Dea said as much during an RTE interview after the result. Instead, Cowen and Co will claim that they have a mandate to run the country and make the tough decisions. And continue they will, until the summer of 2012. You voted Yes for jobs alright, Fianna Fails.


    By that logic, a no vote is a vote for Sinn Fein?


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    #47
    granite man
    Closed Accounts Posts: 86 ✭✭granite man


    Fuhrer wrote: »
    Arent they in the east?


    ugh, nevermind.

    And their submarines have never got tangled with the odd fishing net. Plus they've no modern military capacity either. And the ruction about Georgia didn't happen either. They definitely haven't gone away, y'know?


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    #48
    PaulieD
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 932 ✭✭✭PaulieD


    Fuhrer wrote: »
    By that logic, a no vote is a vote for Sinn Fein?

    How did you work that one out?:confused:


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    #49
    Kidchameleon
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,482 ✭✭✭Kidchameleon


    vinylbomb wrote: »
    Paulie, have you any sources for your predictions?

    Read up on history mate


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    #50
    Fuhrer
    Registered Users Posts: 4,661 ✭✭✭Fuhrer


    granite man wrote: »
    And their submarines have never got tangled with the odd fishing net. Plus they've no modern military capacity either. And the ruction about Georgia didn't happen either. They definitely haven't gone away, y'know?

    Theres Russians under your bed and in your closet!


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    #51
    rumour
    Closed Accounts Posts: 836 ✭✭✭rumour


    free-man wrote: »
    How do you think the economy will fare after Lisbon.

    Are the mainstream parties right in that ratification of Lisbon will lead to economic recovery, a reduction in unemployment and more jobs?

    Unfortunately I think the economy will not be effected by ratification.

    Your thoughts?

    Being a sorely depressed person at the minute I hope this isn't clouded.

    1 Its going to get worse
    2 Sure it will as long as they don't say when and you believe them.
    3 You are right.


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    #52
    PaulieD
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 932 ✭✭✭PaulieD


    rumour wrote: »
    Being a sorely depressed person at the minute I hope this isn't clouded.

    1 Its going to get worse
    2 Sure it will as long as they don't say when and you believe them.
    3 You are right.

    -Nama will pass. Our grandchildren will pick up the tab.
    -Multinationals will leave for eastern europe and India/China.
    -By mid spring we will have 550,000 on the dole(which will be vastly reduced).
    -Fianna Fail will implement savage cuts in the next budget.

    *I will put my money where my mouth is.


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    #53
    prinz
    Registered Users Posts: 14,598 ✭✭✭✭prinz


    PaulieD wrote: »
    -Nama will pass. Our grandchildren will pick up the tab.
    -Multinationals will leave for eastern europe and India/China.
    -By mid spring we will have 550,000 on the dole(which will be vastly reduced).
    -Fianna Fail will implement savage cuts in the next budget.

    *I will put my money where my mouth is.

    NAMA or some equivalent is necessary anyway. If multinationals leave, they leave, not much can be done to keep them here except paying them to stay or offering tax breaks etc, either way the cost/benefit wouldn't weigh up. Our live register has been stabilising and many signs of the global economy starting to pick up have been seen. Finally cuts have to be made, doesn't matter who is in power, FF or anyone else.


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    #54
    free-man
    Closed Accounts Posts: 350 ✭✭free-man


    To expand on my first post.

    NAMA is passed
    This will be strongly opposed by the Irish public and luke warmly accepted by the opposition parties as the 'only game in town'.

    The banks will get their money and pay it straight back to the international markets. Even if the money wasn't owed offshore it makes absolutely no sense to lend to businesses in a recession.

    A floor will remain on the Irish housing market, while wages continue to drop, causing more hardship for hard working irish people. I can't seem them dropping to a competitive level needed if the MNCs are to stick around.

    FF will introduce a tough budget in December (which will be needed) but many of the soft or reluctant yes voters will begin to question why they supported the government on Lisbon as more of their pay packet goes towards interest on paying back the ECB - Rates will rise above the 1% over current market rate. It is still a loan that needs to be paid back and not as some have suggested an injection of free cash. If a No vote was delivered I couldn't see the EU not supporting Ireland and risking a problem with the Euro.

    The rest of the world economy will begin to pick up as the young people of Ireland emigrate in their droves to the "safety valves" of Britain, Canada and Australia from next year.

    I imagine Lisbon will be forgotten about very soon by the public and many will just be happy they don't have to hear about another treaty for a while (it might be quite a while alright!).

    Despite what some from the Yes side maintain I think there will be very little chance of economic recovery next year or even in 2011.

    I'm trying to look for positives here but I really can't see much.

    I'm not an economist and therefore I'll immediately be chastised for being "unqualified" but it seems pretty clear that there'll be no economic uptick due to Lisbon in the next 2 years.


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    #55
    kippy
    Registered Users Posts: 18,473 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    I really would love it if there was something similiar to boards.ie in the 70's when the first EU vote was held in this country.
    We could look back on what the no side were saying about the EU and how bad it was for us. The same people continue to be very anti EU and I dont think a single thing has changed in their attitudes towards the EU since then. Despite all the good joining the EU has done for us. Of curse there has been some bad however in the majority it has been good.
    While this hasnt been a vote for or against the EU, there were those who wanted to turn it such a way, on both sides.

    Anyway, the no side will no doubt link anything "negative" that happens this country with the yes vote, while the yes side will anything positve that happens this country with the yes vote.
    The reality, the treaty hasnt been ratified fully as of it and COULD still fall down, it will no doubt take years to see the results of this, but I think the whole thing, for the common man on the street was much ado about feck all really.
    Theres far more sinister things happening in boardrooms and meetings that the public have no vote on, no idea of and which will have a far bigger impact on them. NAMA, bank bailouts, golden circles, government/Union/Ibec talks etc.....


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    #56
    rumour
    Closed Accounts Posts: 836 ✭✭✭rumour


    prinz wrote: »
    NAMA or some equivalent is necessary anyway. If multinationals leave, they leave, not much can be done to keep them here except paying them to stay or offering tax breaks etc, either way the cost/benefit wouldn't weigh up. Our live register has been stabilising and many signs of the global economy starting to pick up have been seen. Finally cuts have to be made, doesn't matter who is in power, FF or anyone else.

    These are short term benefits brought about by quantitate easing otherwise known as printing money. The problem here is that only Europe and USA have been obliged to do this. This has kept interest rates low. However plans are afoot (Merkel Srakozy summit in September) to stop this policy for fear of inflation.

    On a global scale the whole western world is in deep ****. Printing more money does not increase your wealth it just means you've more pieces of paper to represent it. If your wealth is measured in paper it is being devalued. The USA has been giving dollars to the world for years which everyone was happy with until it became clear that we had nothing to back the dollars up with. As a result, wealth is in the process of moving east to ASIA. If you do some research, hedge funds and institutional investment funds are moving their capital to these countries. This is increasing the demand to create a fictional/notional global reserve currency as emerging economies are increasingly worried about being paid in our currencies. This will have the same effect/limitations on the economy of Europe as the introduction of the euro had in Ireland.

    Keep an eye on commodity prices across europe if they start to rise as we increasingly have to pay more money for goods inflation is not far behind. Now interest rates have to rise just to get them back on a normal playing field, if inflation creeps in they will go up further that will raise interest as well.

    That will mean a massive interest burden on our national debt coupled with increasingly high mortgage interest repayments. Its a spiral thats difficult to see any way out of.

    Thats a very simplistic view/explanation but I don't think I'm that far off the mark. In these circumstances the chances that Europe will continue lending indefinitely to Ireland are slim to zero. Our current spending is so far beyond or ability to pay we need miracles just to survive.

    We may not like Europe very much in the future as the economies of France and Germany do not often align with our own. When this happens I will be voting to stay in Europe.:)


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    #57
    prinz
    Registered Users Posts: 14,598 ✭✭✭✭prinz


    rumour wrote: »
    These are short term benefits brought about by quantitate easing otherwise known as printing money....

    The massive cuts which will have to be made are short term benefits :confused:


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    #58
    procure11
    Closed Accounts Posts: 421 ✭✭procure11


    prinz wrote: »
    NAMA or some equivalent is necessary anyway. If multinationals leave, they leave, not much can be done to keep them here except paying them to stay or offering tax breaks etc, either way the cost/benefit wouldn't weigh up. Our live register has been stabilising and many signs of the global economy starting to pick up have been seen. Finally cuts have to be made, doesn't matter who is in power, FF or anyone else.

    Prinz you have a fair point ,however your analysis in terms of the realistic economic overview is subjective.
    It would be disingenous for me to enlighten you that:

    1.Every government has 3 policy instruments at its disposal to control the economy
    a) Monetary policy
    b)Fiscal policy
    c) Exchange rates

    Ireland as a nation has lost autonomy over two of them i.e Monetary and excahange rates that is determined by the ECB,so your assertion about Nama is a bit false.While the govt has formulated plans for asset control/management,there are still a lot of huge extrinsic factors to be considered.

    2.The live register is "stabilising" due to emigration from both Irish citizens and EU nationals but we know that unlike previous experiences,there is a limit to the scope of emigration opportunities i.e you can only go a country where you would be better off...and there are very few of them these days.If the current level of loss of jobs continue(or escalate??) big problems ahead!!

    3.Multinationals do not have any allegiance to us(irrespective of their support of Lisbon treaty),decisions are made based on on several factors which include -low cost,innovation,created assets,intellectual property,infrastructure etc...most of which the recession has exposed Ireland not comaparatively competitive compared to eg..the BRIC countries,central eastern europe etc..

    4.Cuts have to be made(no doubt) but the question is
    a) To what extent?
    b) What sectors/depts would these cuts be made?
    c) How will these cuts be made to aviod stagflation?

    All these questions arise because of the need to balance recovery and social cohesion.

    In summary,the Yes vote today would in no way answer these questions or help foster recovery.The EU has helped the Irish economy for so long and they know for them to compete as an economic bloc ,there has to be a measure of economic equality between member states.Invariably what would happen is a reduction in EU contributions to Ireland and more funding to Poland,bulgaria,Latvia,Lithania etc .This is not neccesarily bad but in these dire times, Ireland could really face a lot of hardship.


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    #59
    nullzero
    Registered Users Posts: 16,517 ✭✭✭✭nullzero
    ****


    Its hard to see Ireland recovering anytime soon.
    It's sad to say but the days of relying on the EU to give us a helping hand are probably gone.
    We had it so good for so long, but we were relying on foriegn direct investment from footloose companies who's only allegiance is to their share holders.
    When we originally attracted these companies to our shores we were offering tax breaks, low wages memebership of the EEC and geographical proximity to the UK and Europe.
    These days we're no longer the only show in town for these companies and we're having to face up to stiff competition to other EU countries, particularly those with the lowest rates of pay as they can obviously offer a greater profit margin to these multi nationals.

    It's probably time for Ireland as a nation to start figuring out what our key natural resources are. We don't have oil reserves or gold mines to exploit so we have to start looking at a sustainable econmic model that can sustain or economy at a reasonable level internally and also gives us some level of exporting power also.

    Ideally Ireland should be able to figure out what we have to offer to the EU rather than relying on what the EU can do for us as we have in the past.
    We can't expect the EU to be giving us handouts indefinitely. We have to pull our own weight and be able to have some level of ability to stand on our own feet economically.

    As for what Lisbon will do to help us, I'd have to say nothing.
    It might make us look like team players, but we've been leaching off the EU for long enough for a lot of other members to feel we should start pulling our own wieght, especially in a time of crisis, we don't want to be the lame memeber holding everyone else back which is what we are becoming at the moment.


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    #60
    rumour
    Closed Accounts Posts: 836 ✭✭✭rumour


    prinz wrote: »
    The massive cuts which will have to be made are short term benefits :confused:

    Mc Carthy advises 5 Billion of cuts, no appetite whatsoever for this, but we need to find 20 billion of cuts. In the mean time were borrowing.

    I was referring in particular to the reports emanating all over the place that there are signs of the economy getting better, (USA and Europe). The evidence in the states is that printing money is going entirely to the wrong place. Its not unhinging the credit crises but is being driven back into equities.

    This is a confidence trick or good news if your really desperate, equities rise investors make gains in shares and we have a new bubble. But underlying in the so called real economy jobless numbers continue to rise in the USA. Something is not right.


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    #61
    constance tench
    Registered Users Posts: 862 ✭✭✭constance tench


    Liam Byrne wrote: »
    That's not what Lenihan & Co promised; did you not see the posters ?

    "Yes to jobs" was what they said, and the scum had better damn well deliver.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7sED3iApAvE


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