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Fiscal Treaty Referendum.....How will you vote?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,410 ✭✭✭sparkling sea


    While its very difficult to be sure with any degree of certainty what will happen in the future, I do know that if I was broke and someone was willing to lend me money, at a lower interest rate then I could get anywhere else and they asked me to sign an agreement to ensure, that neither my partners nor myself could walk ourselves into this typ of debt situation again - I would do it.

    If I was in very severe debt because I over-borrowed and over-spent, (I like the high life) and no one was prepared to bail me out - accept one person, who offered me a loan and good interest rates but added a caveat that; I must acknowledge I have a long history of being incapable of balancing my own books; I must sign an agreement that will mean I have to be accountable and responsible when I am dealing with other peoples money: and I will end up in sh*t creek if I don't face up to the facts - I know it would be in my best interest to sign rather than give them the finger ?

    If a party who always answer a question with a question; a party who vote no to everything almost all of the time; a party who talk out of one side of their face in one country and the other side in another country ie. they impose austire measure when they are actually in power in the North but claim they wouldn't do they same here;

    More important than that a party with an undeniable record in extreme cruelity, violence and torture; and a sole and explicite aim to acheive a United Island of Ireland at any cost - even one that will destroy this country for years to come - I would at the very least question why they were asking me to vote no -

    The logical conclusion I would reach is that a no vote is highly likely to throw this country into a further state of disarry - like Germany after the first world war - extremist parties like Sinn Fein are more likely to see their numbers rise even further as things get worse and worse for all of us - like Germany after the first world war - a rise in numbers is what Sinn Fein want, at any cost to any one.

    Businesses need to keep running if people are to keep their jobs - people need to keep their jobs to allow our social welfare system to remain effective - the banks have to be shored up to allow business to keep running -we have to vote yes to allow all this to happen

    The above reasons leave me with to choices; I can refrain from voting (which I wouldn't do) or I can vote YES which I will do.

    Again it never ceases to amaze me - how active Sinn Fein is - I doubt very much that the poll on boards will be in any way reflective of the actual voting in the treaty. Its very difficult to know what will happen but there is one certainty in life - reality is in short supply on this thread:confused:.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,675 ✭✭✭beeftotheheels


    Ok. Theyll pay us when they are ready.

    Not "recourse" in my book.

    Okay, so your book is different to the one that every one else uses, because to most normal people having a right of action under which you can recover monies lent constitutes "recourse".

    No amount of recourse in the world is worth anything if the debtor cannot pay, as opposed to will not pay.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    Why then is the Commission proposing that the ESM could be used to bail out other financial institutions?

    Would the ESM be engaging in criminal activity?

    That's different from making Germany assume them, though - it's an international spreading of the effects which recognises that modern banks are international. The current system, where they're free to operate in any jurisdiction under that jurisdiction's rules, but if anything goes wrong the bill comes back to their supposed "national" origin.

    The banking regulation that goes along with any such burden-sharing would have to be very tight, though, otherwise it's in a country's interest to regulate their banks very lightly, knowing that when it all goes pear-shaped, as light bank regulation seems inevitably to do, they won't be paying the full costs even though they will have reaped the benefits.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw


  • Registered Users Posts: 331 ✭✭Heads the ball


    Thats a nice article but it doesnt address a situation where a country runs out of money and is unable to repay.

    In that scenario we woul have no recourse.

    No, because in three, four, five years time when the country has money they have to start paying back (with interest).

    A default (i.e. not making a payment) is different from a repudiation, in that the defaulted on debt is still there, and has to be paid at some point in time, or negotiated down with the consent of both parties.

    Repudiations (saying you'll never pay the debt) are rare, and reserved for the likes of Cuba, North Korea and Bolsheveik Russia.

    Also you are missing a big point here.

    Th point of the current proposal is that the debts of the bank would not be the debts of the nation. The loan would go straight to the banks.

    Therefore if you bail out bankia, it is not the debt of the spanish government. If bankia goes bust i dont see how we have recourse under the current proposals.

    The article you cited applies to contracting states to the tfeu NOT to private enterprises


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,066 ✭✭✭✭Happyman42


    While its very difficult to be sure with any degree of certainty what will happen in the future, I do know that if I was broke and someone was willing to lend me money, at a lower interest rate then I could get anywhere else and they asked me to sign an agreement to ensure, that neither my partners nor myself could walk ourselves into this typ of debt situation again - I would do it.

    What if the person lending you the money is the same person that lent you the money that got you into the situation in the first place?:rolleyes:


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  • Registered Users Posts: 331 ✭✭Heads the ball


    Ok. Theyll pay us when they are ready.

    Not "recourse" in my book.

    Okay, so your book is different to the one that every one else uses, because to most normal people having a right of action under which you can recover monies lent constitutes "recourse".

    No amount of recourse in the world is worth anything if the debtor cannot pay, as opposed to will not pay.

    See my post that says "you are missing a big point"


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,675 ✭✭✭beeftotheheels


    Also you are missing a big point here.

    Th point of the current proposal is that the debts of the bank would not be the debts of the nation. The loan would go straight to the banks.

    Therefore if you bail out bankia, it is not the debt of the spanish government. If bankia goes bust i dont see how we have recourse under the current proposals.

    The article you cited applies to contracting states to the tfeu NOT to private enterprises

    You're behind the times. Commission said this morning that that is not possible so loans will continue to go via sovereigns.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,939 ✭✭✭goat2


    there are six in my house, four are not voting, they would rather not, as they are not sure what they are voting for, the other two of us, are thinking of abstaining also, as for all i read, and all the debating i watched, i cannot say for certainty that i understand what we really are voting for,


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,410 ✭✭✭sparkling sea


    Happyman42 wrote: »
    What if the person lending you the money is the same person that lent you the money that got you into the situation in the first place?:rolleyes:

    Like a credit union who realises what I am like and brings in new rules, with a board that makes me and all the other members accountible and responsible -as oppossed to a loan shark who will give me more money so that they can destroy me completely:rolleyes:


  • Registered Users Posts: 331 ✭✭Heads the ball


    Also you are missing a big point here.

    Th point of the current proposal is that the debts of the bank would not be the debts of the nation. The loan would go straight to the banks.

    Therefore if you bail out bankia, it is not the debt of the spanish government. If bankia goes bust i dont see how we have recourse under the current proposals.

    The article you cited applies to contracting states to the tfeu NOT to private enterprises

    You're behind the times. Commission said this morning that that is not possible so loans will continue to go via sovereigns.

    Currently its not happening but rte news reported last night that the commission was considering it. I would find it incongruous that tht proposal has now been dismissed in that space of time. Certainly not calling you a liar sir.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,308 ✭✭✭splashthecash


    goat2 wrote: »
    there are six in my house, four are not voting, they would rather not, as they are not sure what they are voting for, the other two of us, are thinking of abstaining also, as for all i read, and all the debating i watched, i cannot say for certainty that i understand what we really are voting for,

    I'm in the same boat as you here I think, I'm trying to understand but both sides seem to be contradicting each other.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,293 ✭✭✭StealthRolex


    While its very difficult to be sure with any degree of certainty what will happen in the future, I do know that if I was broke and someone was willing to lend me money, at a lower interest rate then I could get anywhere else and they asked me to sign an agreement to ensure, that neither my partners nor myself could walk ourselves into this typ of debt situation again - I would do it.

    If I was in very severe debt because I over-borrowed and over-spent, (I like the high life) and no one was prepared to bail me out - accept one person, who offered me a loan and good interest rates but added a caveat that; I must acknowledge I have a long history of being incapable of balancing my own books; I must sign an agreement that will mean I have to be accountable and responsible when I am dealing with other peoples money: and I will end up in sh*t creek if I don't face up to the facts - I know it would be in my best interest to sign rather than give them the finger ?

    If a party who always answer a question with a question; a party who vote no to everything almost all of the time; a party who talk out of one side of their face in one country and the other side in another country ie. they impose austire measure when they are actually in power in the North but claim they wouldn't do they same here;

    More important than that a party with an undeniable record in extreme cruelity, violence and torture; and a sole and explicite aim to acheive a United Island of Ireland at any cost - even one that will destroy this country for years to come - I would at the very least question why they were asking me to vote no -

    The logical conclusion I would reach is that a no vote is highly likely to throw this country into a further state of disarry - like Germany after the first world war - extremist parties like Sinn Fein are more likely to see their numbers rise even further as things get worse and worse for all of us - like Germany after the first world war - a rise in numbers is what Sinn Fein want, at any cost to any one.

    Businesses need to keep running if people are to keep their jobs - people need to keep their jobs to allow our social welfare system to remain effective - the banks have to be shored up to allow business to keep running -we have to vote yes to allow all this to happen

    The above reasons leave me with to choices; I can refrain from voting (which I wouldn't do) or I can vote YES which I will do.

    Again it never ceases to amaze me - how active Sinn Fein is - I doubt very much that the poll on boards will be in any way reflective of the actual voting in the treaty. Its very difficult to know what will happen but there is one certainty in life - reality is in short supply on this thread:confused:.

    If Sinn Fein where the only ones calling for a No vote you would have a point.

    They're not and you don't.

    This treaty is not about Ireland or the Euro. It is about Germany. It is Germany telling the rest of the Eurozone that if you don't start behaving like Germans you will get no more money. It is a guarantee for Germany that if they do put funds in to the ESM it will only go to countries that are prepared to adopt German laws.

    The reality is that if Spain and Italy need a bail out there will be no money for us. If the Dutch are as bad as they are not telling us we're in trouble. If the French and the Belgians need a dig out Germany may well reinstate the Deutsch Mark.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,675 ✭✭✭beeftotheheels


    Currently its not happening but rte news reported last night that the commission was considering it. I would find it incongruous that tht proposal has now been dismissed in that space of time. Certainly not calling you a liar sir.

    Yes, and Altafaj - the Commission spokesperson - this morning acknowledged that it is not possible at this time.

    Hopefully a pan European bank resolution regime will be implemented at some point in the future (and retrofitted for us), but not at this time.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,066 ✭✭✭✭Happyman42


    Like a credit union who realises what I am like and brings in new rules, with a board that makes me and all the other members accountible and responsible -as oppossed to a loan shark who will give me more money so that they can destroy me completely:rolleyes:

    The sensible and prudent would you suggest that you need to ask why you are borrowing in the first place.
    Nobody offering loans wants to destroy you, they want to keep you borrowing and paying back the interest. It all goes pearshaped when the person offering the loans makes it too cheap for you to borrow. That is lesson that was learned here, the solution you vote for when you vote YES is that you take all the pain and the person who made the cheap loans does not have any responsibility and ultimately doesn't lose...YOU DO.
    Can you spot a winner in that?


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,106 ✭✭✭antoobrien


    If Sinn Fein where the only ones calling for a No vote you would have a point.

    They're not and you don't.

    This treaty is not about Ireland or the Euro. It is about Germany. It is Germany telling the rest of the Eurozone that if you don't start behaving like Germans you will get no more money. It is a guarantee for Germany that if they do put funds in to the ESM it will only go to countries that are prepared to adopt German laws.

    The reality is that if Spain and Italy need a bail out there will be no money for us. If the Dutch are as bad as they are not telling us we're in trouble. If the French and the Belgians need a dig out Germany may well reinstate the Deutsch Mark.

    RBB called for a an extra 5% tax on incomes above 100k that would earn 5-10 billion in tax. If he had actually run his figures he'd know that it would require 50% on all earnings to achieve anywhere near that.

    There's the credibility of another no campaigner gone.

    Ganley - stands to gain from instability in the euro (he has a Swiss investment vehicle) - no credibility

    St. Joe & Clare Daly can't even call the treaty by its name - no credibility.

    Am I missing anyone?


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    antoobrien wrote: »
    RBB called for a an extra 5% tax on incomes above 100k that would earn 5-10 billion in tax. If he had actually run his figures he'd know that it would require 50% on all earnings to achieve anywhere near that.

    There's the credibility of another no campaigner gone.

    Ganley - stands to gain from instability in the euro (he has a Swiss investment vehicle) - no credibility

    St. Joe & Clare Daly can't even call the treaty by its name - no credibility.

    Am I missing anyone?
    Nobel economics laureate Paul Krugman


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,980 ✭✭✭meglome


    I'm in the same boat as you here I think, I'm trying to understand but both sides seem to be contradicting each other.

    Sadly that is very true. We have a situation where anyone can say pretty much anything. It doesn't have to be remotely true.

    The only thing I can really say to you is the far bigger liars are from the no camp... then I'm just some stranger on the internet.

    If you don't know you are better off abstaining.


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,980 ✭✭✭meglome


    Villain wrote: »
    Nobel economics laureate Paul Krugman

    ...who has given no explanation of how a country which already borrows one third of all government spending can then borrow far more for a stimulus, which would have very uncertain results.

    I'm not an economist but this is the most basic question to answer and he hasn't.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,293 ✭✭✭StealthRolex


    antoobrien wrote: »
    RBB called for a an extra 5% tax on incomes above 100k that would earn 5-10 billion in tax. If he had actually run his figures he'd know that it would require 50% on all earnings to achieve anywhere near that.

    Did he not say 500 million?
    antoobrien wrote: »
    Am I missing anyone?

    antoobrien


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,293 ✭✭✭StealthRolex


    meglome wrote: »
    ...who has given no explanation of how a country which already borrows one third of all government spending can then borrow far more for a stimulus, which would have very uncertain results.

    I'm not an economist but this is the most basic question to answer and he hasn't.


    The answer is probably in his book about ending the depression and he may be of the opinion that if you're good at something you don't give it away for free.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,939 ✭✭✭goat2


    I'm in the same boat as you here I think, I'm trying to understand but both sides seem to be contradicting each other.
    i was going to vote, until this morning, and knowing this is big, but not knowing how big, there should have been proper debating, people were evading questions in most of the discussions of television, when there is uncertainty like that by the people who are supposed to know,
    it is bound to rub of on us the people of the country watching it, there was nothing but evasion and evasion of important questions, which leads me to beleive that we dont know what we are voting for, so i would rather stay away from something i dont fully understand.


  • Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 28,792 Mod ✭✭✭✭oscarBravo


    Happyman42 wrote: »
    oscarBravo wrote: »
    Let's work on the assumption that even you don't believe the heads of government of the member states don't plan to kill themselves personally, and that instead you mean that those heads of state got together and agreed to kill their respective member states instead.
    Have you looked around Europe lately???? :D Seems to me that is precisely what is happening.
    OK, so we've established that you believe that the heads of government have conspired among themselves to destroy their respective countries. You think that this is a more reasonable explanation for their collective decision-making than the possibility that they have negotiated what they feel is the best compromise between their respective competing political agendas and in the collective best interests of the union as a whole.

    Now all you have to do is explain why all these people from their disparate national and political backgrounds are conspiring against the people who elected them.

    Not that you're going to, because that's not how you roll.


  • Registered Users Posts: 331 ✭✭Heads the ball


    Yes, and Altafaj - the Commission spokesperson - this morning acknowledged that it is not possible at this time.

    Hopefully a pan European bank resolution regime will be implemented at some point in the future (and retrofitted for us), but not at this time.


    Article 15 of the ESM Treaty provides that loans may be made to member states for the purposes of recapitalising their financial institutions


  • Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    meglome wrote: »
    ...who has given no explanation of how a country which already borrows one third of all government spending can then borrow far more for a stimulus, which would have very uncertain results.

    I'm not an economist but this is the most basic question to answer and he hasn't.

    I'm sure a Nobel economics laureate has given thought to such matters before advocating for a No vote!


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,980 ✭✭✭meglome


    The answer is probably in his book about ending the depression and he may be of the opinion that if you're good at something you don't give it away for free.

    Well he was very forthcoming with his opinion so I would have hoped that he might explain one of the most basic problems with it. Unless of course, as an American based economist, he doesn't fully understand Ireland's terrible financial position.
    Villain wrote: »
    I'm sure a Nobel economics laureate has given thought to such matters before advocating for a No vote!

    I'd draw your attention here... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_authority


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,410 ✭✭✭sparkling sea


    If Sinn Fein where the only ones calling for a No vote you would have a point.

    They're not and you don't.

    This treaty is not about Ireland or the Euro. It is about Germany. It is Germany telling the rest of the Eurozone that if you don't start behaving like Germans you will get no more money. It is a guarantee for Germany that if they do put funds in to the ESM it will only go to countries that are prepared to adopt German laws.

    The reality is that if Spain and Italy need a bail out there will be no money for us. If the Dutch are as bad as they are not telling us we're in trouble. If the French and the Belgians need a dig out Germany may well reinstate the Deutsch Mark.

    There is no easy way out of this crisis, no quick fix answer, its going to be really hard - its just how hard do we make it for ourselves - we need the lowest interest rate loan and someone to make sure we follow the right road, we are to easily lead astray when left to our own judgement - look at our politicans?

    The reality is if Spain and Italy need a bail out we are all in even more trouble anyway however to say there won't be any money for us is a nonsense, no country is going to receive all of the money at the one time.
    Also if the treaty is not passed we will be undermining the Euro so Spain, Italy, us, etc will be more at risk of contagion.

    I'll correct you there - I do have a point - also I' ll correct you again - the treaty is about Europe - however my post was focusing on certain aspects of why I will vote yes - its a big issue with lots of aspects

    Ah the world of black and white with no grey area - just because Sinn Fein are not the only ones calling for a no vote doesn't mean I don't have a point.

    Nigel Farage of UKIP is also calling for a no vote. His policies include ending multiculturalism and strictly limiting UK citizenship. They certainly cannot be expected to act in Ireland’s best interests.


  • Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    Villain wrote: »
    I'm sure a Nobel economics laureate has given thought to such matters before advocating for a No vote!

    One would then expect him to be able to summarise the answer in order to make the rest of his argument look more credible...

    I'm afraid it's perfectly possible to gain a Nobel prize in economics without having useful solutions to anything in the real world - the prize is given for academic contribution to the field, not for, say, single-handedly saving a major economy.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,675 ✭✭✭beeftotheheels


    Article 15 of the ESM Treaty provides that loans may be made to member states for the purposes of recapitalising their financial institutions

    Yes - to the States which then invokes Art 125 TFEU as I've already pointed out.

    A better answer would be to by-pass the sovereign, but that is not possible at this time.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,215 ✭✭✭carveone


    Rte reported last night that the commission is considering using the esm to bail banks.

    What you are citing is the ecb. Not directly related to what we are discussing but noted.

    Doh! Yes, sorry, that was my mistake. I'm seeing "esm" everywhere.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    oscarBravo wrote: »
    Now all you have to do is explain why all these people from their disparate national and political backgrounds are conspiring against the people who elected them.

    The same was said when Bertie and his cowboys guranteed all the bank debt......


This discussion has been closed.
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