Football ranking table

• Kerry's bonus point win over Kildare moves them closer to Dublin, with less than 1 rating point now separating the sides
• Donegal overtake Monaghan into 3rd after they ground out a win against Galway (although Monaghan should pop back up to 3rd if they beat Tyrone)
• Tyrone move up one place to 6th, but that is as much due to Kildare's drop than Tyrone's win over Sligo, who drop one place to 16th
• No rating points were exchanged in the Dublin-Fermanagh game as more than 15 rating points separated the sides

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating points| Δ Rating
1| steady| Dublin | 104.31 | 0.00
2| steady| Kerry | 103.76 | 3.07
3| increase| Donegal | 101.11 | 2.70
4| decrease| Monaghan | 99.70 | 0.00
5| steady| Mayo | 98.12 | 0.00
6| increase| Tyrone | 94.28 | 0.95
7| decrease| Kildare | 92.84 | -3.07
8| steady| Galway | 89.70 | -2.70
9| steady| Fermanagh | 89.39 | 0.00
10| steady| Cork | 89.36 | 0.00
11| steady| Derry | 85.52 | 0.00
12| steady| Roscommon | 83.69 | 0.00
13| steady| Meath | 83.02 | 0.00
14| steady| Armagh | 82.64 | 0.00
15| increase| Westmeath | 80.56 | 0.00
16| decrease| Sligo | 80.53 | -0.95
17| steady| Tipperary | 78.99 | 0.00
18| steady| Longford | 78.23 | 0.00
19| steady| Down | 77.27 | 0.00
20| steady| Wexford | 75.78 | 0.00
21| steady| Cavan | 75.27 | 0.00
22| steady| Clare | 73.45 | 0.00
23| steady| Limerick | 72.30 | 0.00
24| steady| Laois | 71.80 | 0.00
25| steady| Antrim | 71.70 | 0.00
26| steady| Offaly | 71.24 | 0.00
27| steady| Louth | 70.45 | 0.00
28| steady| Leitrim | 64.56 | 0.00
29| steady| Wicklow | 61.29 | 0.00
30| steady| London | 61.07 | 0.00
31| steady| Carlow | 60.92 | 0.00
32| steady| New York | 57.17 | 0.00
33| steady| Waterford | 56.32 | 0.00

Full explanation of ranking system here.

And then there were 4........

• Mayo's bonus point win over Donegal means that they gain 5.40 rating points, and move up to 3rd, just behind Kerry
• Donegal drop out of the top 4 for the first time in 12 months
• Tyrone move into the top 4 after a 12 month hiatus, having increased their rating points by 4.08
• Monaghan drop back to a comfortable 6th position with an Ulster title their reward for this year's work

*Teams in bold still in championship
#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating points|Δ Rating
1| steady| Dublin | 104.31 | 0.00
2| steady| Kerry | 103.76 | 0.00
3| increase| Mayo | 103.52 | 5.40
4| increase| Tyrone | 98.36 | 4.08
5| decrease| Donegal | 95.71 | -5.40
6| decrease| Monaghan | 95.62 | -4.08
7| steady| Kildare | 92.84 | 0.00
8| steady| Galway | 89.70 | 0.00
9| steady| Fermanagh | 89.39 | 0.00
10| steady| Cork | 89.36 | 0.00
11| steady| Derry | 85.52 | 0.00
12| steady| Roscommon | 83.69 | 0.00
13| steady| Meath | 83.02 | 0.00
14| steady| Armagh | 82.64 | 0.00
15| steady| Westmeath | 80.56 | 0.00
16| steady| Sligo | 80.53 | 0.00
17| steady| Tipperary | 78.99 | 0.00
18| steady| Longford | 78.23 | 0.00
19| steady| Down | 77.27 | 0.00
20| steady| Wexford | 75.78 | 0.00
21| steady| Cavan | 75.27 | 0.00
22| steady| Clare | 73.45 | 0.00
23| steady| Limerick | 72.30 | 0.00
24| steady| Laois | 71.80 | 0.00
25| steady| Antrim | 71.70 | 0.00
26| steady| Offaly | 71.24 | 0.00
27| steady| Louth | 70.45 | 0.00
28| steady| Leitrim | 64.56 | 0.00
29| steady| Wicklow | 61.29 | 0.00
30| steady| London | 61.07 | 0.00
31| steady| Carlow | 60.92 | 0.00
32| steady| New York | 57.17 | 0.00
33| steady| Waterford | 56.32 | 0.00

Full explanation of ranking system here.

Tyrone (98.36) vs Kerry (103.76)

Kerry, the perennial favourites, against their arch nemesis (and the arch nemesis of all that is good about Gaelic football if the media were to be taken seriously) Tyrone.

Kerry have advanced relatively steadily through the championship, stuttering slightly over Cork before unleashing a tirade against a shell-shocked Kildare side in the quarter-final. It is said that their weakness is their defense, but perhaps that is a relative weakness compared to the strength of their midfield and attacking unit. David Moran is having an exceptional year and is keeping the supply flowing into a star-studded forward unit. It's really in the attack where Kerry have the potential to exploit any weaknesses in an opponent's defense. There might be a doubt over the fitness of O'Donoghue but Kerry are not lacking in this area. They have scored an average of 23 points per game (12-56) while conceding 13.5 points (6-36).

Tyrone's defeat of the Ulster champions grants them the opportunity to go all the way to the final, after what has been undoubtedly a long road through the qualifiers. However, the fact that they have played 6 games has really helped them come together as a team and they have shown excellent resilience in their games to date. Of course, Sean Cavanagh remains the main man, but approximately 60% of their scoring potential is shared between Cavanagh, McAliskey and McCurry. They have scored an average of 16.8 points per game (3-92) versus a concession rate of 11.7 points (1-67).

While one has take into account the opposition they have each encountered, it is amazing that Tyrone have not conceded a goal since their first round Ulster loss to Donegal. Kerry are the second highest goal scorers in the championship, so something has got to give in that respect.

The sides have met on 5 previous occasions with Tyrone coming out on top 3 times :

1986 All-Ireland final Kerry 2-15 Tyrone 1-10 Croke Park
2003 All-Ireland semi-final Kerry 0-06 Tyrone 0-13 Croke Park
2005 All-Ireland final Tyrone 1-16 Kerry 2-10 Croke Park
2008 All-Ireland final Kerry 0-14 Tyrone 1-15 Croke Park
2012 Qualifiers (Rd 3) Kerry 1-16 Tyrone 1-06 Killarney

However, the results themselves don't paint the full picture. If we look at the respective ratings before each of these games were played, we can see that Kerry were rated superior to Tyrone on each occasion that they lost to the Ulster men.



It is probably because of this that the prediction model is going for a much tighter game than that predicted by the bookies. Kerry by 1

• Kerry recapture number one position, last held in March 2015, and push Dublin down to second
• Tyrone will finish the year in 4th place, in what can be considered a successful year, despite relegation to Division 2

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating points|Δ ”Rating
1| increase| Kerry | 105.68 | 1.92
2| decrease| Dublin | 104.31 | 0.00
3| steady| Mayo | 103.52 | 0.00
4| steady| Tyrone | 96.44 | -1.92
5| steady| Donegal | 95.71 | 0.00
6| steady| Monaghan | 95.62 | 0.00
7| steady| Kildare | 92.84 | 0.00
8| steady| Galway | 89.70 | 0.00
9| steady| Fermanagh | 89.39 | 0.00
10| steady| Cork | 89.36 | 0.00
11| steady| Derry | 85.52 | 0.00
12| steady| Roscommon | 83.69 | 0.00
13| steady| Meath | 83.02 | 0.00
14| steady| Armagh | 82.64 | 0.00
15| steady| Westmeath | 80.56 | 0.00
16| steady| Sligo | 80.53 | 0.00
17| steady| Tipperary | 78.99 | 0.00
18| steady| Longford | 78.23 | 0.00
19| steady| Down | 77.27 | 0.00
20| steady| Wexford | 75.78 | 0.00
21| steady| Cavan | 75.27 | 0.00
22| steady| Clare | 73.45 | 0.00
23| steady| Limerick | 72.30 | 0.00
24| steady| Laois | 71.80 | 0.00
25| steady| Antrim | 71.70 | 0.00
26| steady| Offaly | 71.24 | 0.00
27| steady| Louth | 70.45 | 0.00
28| steady| Leitrim | 64.56 | 0.00
29| steady| Wicklow | 61.29 | 0.00
30| steady| London | 61.07 | 0.00
31| steady| Carlow | 60.92 | 0.00
32| steady| New York | 57.17 | 0.00
33| steady| Waterford | 56.32 | 0.00

Full explanation of ranking system here.

CrabRevolution wrote: »

Not sure how easy it is to extract the information for this, but I've a query.

What were Dublin and Meath's scores right before the 1991 series of draws in Leinster?

And did the 2 of their scores regress towards each other so that by the third draw they had the exact same points as each other?

Match|Date|Meath RT|Dublin RT| Rating difference*| Score difference
Draw|1991-06-02 |96.13 |97.38| -4.25| 0
1st replay|1991-06-09 |96.98 |96.53| -2.55| 0
2nd replay|1991-06-23 |97.49 |96.02| -1.53| 0
3rd replay|1991-07-06 |97.80 |95.71| -0.91| -1
|1991-07-07 |100.98 |92.53| |

*Rating difference is prior to the games and is calculated as: Meath RT - (Dublin RT + 3) - as Dublin were considered to have had home advantage

To answer your question, the ratings were regressing to a common point, but because Dublin were considered to have home advantage, the common point would have been 95.35 rating points for Dublin and 98.35 for Meath.

If the games were played at a neutral venue, then yes, they would regress to an identical number.

Dublin (103.55, at home) vs Mayo (104.28)

I don't have too much more to add to last week's preview, especially as I didn't get to see the game. Mayo have overtaken Dublin in terms of rating points but Dublin still maintain the upper hand due to home advantage. The prediction model says Dublin by 2.

All-Ireland final 2015

Dublin (107.37, at home) vs Kerry (105.68)

It seems like ages since the semi-finals were played and the early stages of the championship feels like last year – well to me anyways!

The dream final is delivered upon us and we can only hope that it lives up to it's billing. Dublin appeared to have improved their system of play since last year, at a time when they were proclaimed unbeatable (except nobody told Donegal). They did make hard work of Mayo's challenge in the semi-final, but showed plenty of determination to work their way through it. Prior to the Mayo game, though, Dublin were barely ruffled more than a Monaghan man's coiff.

Kerry have had arguably the easier route to the final, taking 2 turns to overcome a later-to-be-found-out Cork in Munster and then a decent win over a hard-working but ultimately limited Tyrone side. What was impressive in that game was Kerry's resolve in the final 10 minutes, where they effectively shut up shop and outscored Tyrone.

Both teams have some class operators scattered throughout their teams, but it is Dublin's attacking system which really catches the eye. Kerry's defense did not comprehensively answer all the questions put to them during this year's championship, so they know they still have work to do, but will it be enough ?

Kerry have scored 12-74 in 5 games this year and conceded 7-47 (average of 22.0 points for and 13.6 against) whereas Dublin have scored a whopping 18-106 in 6 games and conceded 4-74 (26.7 for, 14.3 against). What is remarkable is the spread of scorers in the Kerry team, i.e. no one player has scored more than 15% of their total score. Compare this to Dublin's scoring pattern, where Bernard Brogan (6-19) accounts for 23% of their scores, and Dean Rock (2-21) almost 17 %. Paul Geaney incidentally is top scorer for Kerry on 2-10.

The 10 previous meetings between the teams:
Year|Stage|Team|Score|Team|Score|Venue
1979 |All-Ireland final | Dublin |1-08 |Kerry |3-13 |Croke Park
1984 | All-Ireland final | Dublin |1-06 | Kerry | 0-14 |Croke Park
1985 | All-Ireland final| Dublin| 2 -08 | Kerry | 2-12 |Croke Park
2001 | All-Ireland quarter-final | Kerry | 1-14 |Dublin| 2-11 |Thurles
2001 | All-Ireland quarter-final replay |Dublin |1-12 |Kerry | 2-12 |Thurles
2004 |All-Ireland quarter-final |Dublin| 1-08 |Kerry |1-15 |Croke Park
2007 |All-Ireland semi-final | Dublin |0-16 |Kerry |1-15 |Croke Park
2009 | All-Ireland quarter-final |Dublin |1-07 |Kerry |1-24 |Croke Park
2011 |All-Ireland final | Dublin| 1-12| Kerry| 1-11 |Croke Park
2013 |All-Ireland semi-final | Dublin |3-18| Kerry |3-11 |Croke Park

If we look at these results in the context of each team's rating points at that particular time, we get the following which is frankly all over the place:



Concentrating on games since 2000, a much clearer pattern emerges:




So, based on these results and the current rating of the teams involved, the prediction model says that the winners of the All-Ireland final of 2015 will be: Dublin. By 2 points.

(Apologies in advance, the formatting options are gone haywire here and I'm not sure how this will turn out)

- Dublin's win over Kerry moves them to an all-time high in rating points and 1.7 points off the record set by Kerry in 1978
- Cork were the big winners in terms of rating points after their bonus point win over Mayo (+3.46)
- Offaly were the biggest movers, hopping 3 places to move up to 23rd

#|Δ Rank|Team|Rating points|Δ Rating
1| steady| Dublin | 110.36 | 0.93
2| steady| Kerry | 102.69 | -0.93
3| steady| Mayo | 97.00 | -3.46
4| steady| Tyrone | 96.45 | 0.01
5| increase| Monaghan | 96.23 | 0.61
6| decrease| Donegal | 95.71 | 0.00
7| steady| Kildare | 93.41 | 0.57
8| increase| Cork | 92.82 | 3.46
9| decrease| Galway | 89.71 | 0.01
10| increase| Derry | 87.90 | 2.38
11| decrease| Fermanagh | 87.01 | -2.38
12| increase| Meath | 84.18 | 1.16
13| decrease| Roscommon | 83.08 | -0.61
14| steady| Armagh | 81.48 | -1.16
15| steady| Westmeath | 79.99 | -0.57
16| increase| Tipperary | 78.62 | -0.37
17| decrease| Sligo | 77.68 | -2.85
18| increase| Down | 77.27 | 0.00
19| decrease| Longford | 76.33 | -1.90
20| increase| Clare | 76.31 | 2.86
21| decrease| Wexford | 75.86 | 0.08
22| decrease| Cavan | 75.27 | 0.00
23| increase| Offaly | 73.14 | 1.90
24| decrease| Limerick | 72.67 | 0.37
25| steady| Antrim | 72.42 | 0.72
26| decrease| Laois | 71.79 | -0.01
27| steady| Louth | 70.84 | 0.39
28| steady| Leitrim | 64.48 | -0.08
29| steady| Wicklow | 61.99 | 0.70
30| steady| London | 60.68 | -0.39
31| steady| Carlow | 60.19 | -0.73
32| steady| New York | 57.17 | 0.00
33| steady| Waterford | 55.62 | -0.70