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Winter 2011/2012

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    #3122
    vickers209
    Registered Users Posts: 1,462 ✭✭✭vickers209


    Uk Met office
    Monthly Outlook

    Monday 2 January Published at 10:00
    Monthly Outlook

    Monday 16 January—Sunday 29 January
    Generally unsettled

    The second half of the month looks similar to the first with predominantly unsettled conditions the main theme. Atlantic weather systems are likely to bring quite mild but quite wet conditions to many parts. Between those Atlantic systems there will probably be some short lived colder spells with some snow showers, mainly over northern hills. More settled spells are also expected, these most likely in more southern areas. While it may be generally unsettled, daytime temperatures should be near to, or a bit higher than, average but there is still potential for some overnight frost.


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    #3123
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Double post from the Strat Warm thread just in case some of you don't bother with it. Could get really exciting


    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=76275014&postcount=57


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    #3124
    derekon
    Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    redsunset wrote: »
    Double post from the Strat Warm thread just in case some of you don't bother with it. Could get really exciting


    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=76275014&postcount=57


    Thank you Redsunset - probably the most promising post for snowlovers on these boards in the past number of weeks. It would appear that the experts are now confirming stratospheric warming and the real possibility that the AO will go negative over the coming 7-14 days. Can only help our quest for snow in Ireland - my only fear is that any blocking High Pressure would be centred over or just slightly to the west of Ireland, giving most of Europe the cold while Ireland would be locked in dry cold weather and frosty nights. Fingers crossed that any significant blocking takes place over Greenland or Scandinavia :D:D

    D


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    #3125
    mcriot29
    Registered Users Posts: 386 ✭✭mcriot29


    redsunset wrote: »
    Double post from the Strat Warm thread just in case some of you don't bother with it. Could get really exciting


    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=76275014&postcount=57

    Maybe we will end up on a 47 type event this winter , i feel the cold air just avoids ireland andclips the uk , i fear the true cold may not hit ireland but east europe will no doubt get a deep cold spell before jan ends worse then last year, due to the build up over the artic due to the ao been at record heights for past 6 weeks


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    #3126
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    Another interesting pattern is starting to show in the models...one dominated by LOWS not HIGHS. While fairly FI at present they appear to be Polar Lows...which are explained very well here.

    Unlike the setup in recent months where Lows have generated around 40-50n and bombed across the Atlantic on occasion ....followed by the Azores High poking back north over Ireland in their wake...these are powerful systems that generate in Northern Latitudes.

    Anyway here are two examples to watch out for if they persist in the models. First of all the Polar lows develop and then they expand. Classic Polar Lows in our part of the world develop where the Gulf Stream gets past Norway into the Barents Sea or around Svalbard Island. They are often pinned into the Northern Oceans and of no great import to us down around here.

    6034073

    Cumulatively they are shown later in this particular model run expanding and pushing the Azores High southwards as they expand and with no Azores High in place ....bye bye warmth. :cool:

    186922.png

    186924.png

    Life ain't all Highs Guys :D More here.

    http://www.geo-web.org.uk/PolarLow.pdf

    The example system mentioned there ( 2003) happened to hit London one day as ole Sponge Bob flew into Heathrow.


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    #3127
    nilhg
    Registered Users Posts: 5,118 ✭✭✭nilhg


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    Another interesting pattern is starting to show in the models...one dominated by LOWS not HIGHS. While fairly FI at present they appear to be Polar Lows...which are explained very well here.

    Unlike the setup in recent months where Lows have generated around 40-50n and bombed across the Atlantic on occasion ....followed by the Azores High poking back north over Ireland in their wake...these are powerful systems that generate in Northern Latitudes.

    Anyway here are two examples to watch out for if they persist in the models. First of all the Polar lows develop and then they expand. Classic Polar Lows in our part of the world develop where the Gulf Stream gets past Norway into the Barents Sea or around Svalbard Island. They are often pinned into the Northern Oceans and of no great import to us down around here.

    6034073

    Cumulatively they are shown later in this particular model run expanding and pushing the Azores High southwards as they expand and with no Azores High in place ....bye bye warmth. :cool:

    186922.png

    186924.png

    Life ain't all Highs Guys :D More here.

    http://www.geo-web.org.uk/PolarLow.pdf

    The example system mentioned there ( 2003) happened to hit London one day as ole Sponge Bob flew into Heathrow.


    The problem with extreme FI stuff like this though SB is that it has a tendency to dissappear in the next run or two:D

    Rtavn3722.png

    Rtavn3725.png

    Bye bye cold;);)


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    #3128
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    nilhg wrote: »

    Bye bye cold;);)

    You are right Nil, of course you are, but the interesting thing I thought was a putative cold setup dominated by Lows not by a High over Scandinavia or Greenland which is what has often delivered lots of cold to Ireland.

    And it was the first eruption of cold in the models this winter ...which models have tended to look like generally what you just posted for the past 3 months.

    Thanks


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    #3129
    youngblood
    Registered Users Posts: 1,768 ✭✭✭youngblood


    that darkman was a bit of a legend there


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    #3130
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    you won't see him in this thread, he needs to have a few on the go himself.


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    #3131
    nilhg
    Registered Users Posts: 5,118 ✭✭✭nilhg


    Sponge Bob wrote: »
    You are right Nil, of course you are, but the interesting thing I thought was a putative cold setup dominated by Lows not by a High over Scandinavia or Greenland which is what has often delivered lots of cold to Ireland.

    And it was the first eruption of cold in the models this winter ...which models have tended to look like generally what you just posted for the past 3 months.

    Thanks

    Yeah it was an interesting scenario alright, and would be even more interesting if it was 3 days away rather than 15.:D:D

    It would have all depended (as always) on where those lows finished up.


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    #3132
    jirafa
    Registered Users Posts: 2,353 ✭✭✭jirafa


    Tuesday's 10-14 day outlook 3/1/12
    From: WeatherSchool


    Link................ http://youtu.be/5oRDLwVaI1I




    It is early squeaky bum time .... :p:p:p:p


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    #3133
    Wine Goddess
    Registered Users Posts: 550 ✭✭✭Wine Goddess


    jirafa wrote: »
    Tuesday's 10-14 day outlook 3/1/12
    From: WeatherSchool


    Link................ http://youtu.be/5oRDLwVaI1I




    It is early squeaky bum time .... :p:p:p:p

    ??? From what I saw until mid-month it's the same old same old, and then very little chance of the lows dropping to give us some, some, some, (licks dry lips in anticipation of possible hex on it...) SNOW!!!!
    So everyone please put on your dancing shoes.
    Thanks.


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    #3134
    Nabber
    Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    It might get cooler was what I seen in that video.

    I'd prefer it to be mild and dry than cold and wet.


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    #3135
    jirafa
    Registered Users Posts: 2,353 ✭✭✭jirafa


    Valid from 14/01 to 10/02 2012

    Colder late January

    The forecast period from late-autumn into the beginning of this winter has been 'particularly challenging' both in terms of pinning down sufficient confidence in a sustainable pattern. There has been a good deal of cold Arctic air piling up the north, the 'deal' was attempting to see whether the pattern conditions would be favourable to 'trigger' this air to come south into the UK? This has been a winter period the like of which I have not seen for some time, that said, with some reservations I have had this 'feeling' that winter 201-12 would always be late. This is not the winter of the previous two years, when it arrives it will be notable, such will be the contrast to present conditions. I believe that it'll be the mid-late January period when this arrives?

    *14/01/12*

    After a brief taste of winter in the short term, conditions will revert to an Atlantic flow with generally mild conditions establishing across all areas of the UK. There'll be periods of wind and rain for all of us, gales in exposed areas to the west and north, some of this rain will be heavy at times with blustery showers following as brighter and cooler conditions pass through on a brisk west to north-westerly flow. There will be some drier and brighter intervals between the main rain bands, the more southern and south-eastern areas of Britain favoured to see this, sheltered from the mainly west to north-westerly flow. There is the hint that these more southern areas will become largely dry later as pressure begins to rise.

    *15/01/12 - 20/01/12*

    It is through this period that the patterns do suggest a rise in pressure, where this takes place is 'debatable' at the moment, also the threat that it may turn substantially colder. On current evidence a rise in pressure will take place, a suggestion that this'll be to the northwest or northwest a much colder outbreak of Arctic air moving south through all areas on a northerly to north-easterly flow. Much of the available precipitation turning wintry in nature, frost becoming widespread overnight as high pressure slips across the UK and winds fall light, a less cold flow across the north and northwest as a light south-westerly establishes here. As high pressure slips further east a light southerly to south-easterly flow becomes established through all areas, so mainly dry, broken cloud and chilly for most.

    *21/01/12 - 25/01/12*

    High pressure once again takes control as it drifts in the UK, the mainly dry settled and chilly conditions maintained through most areas. Some indication of a strengthening westerly flow over the northern half of Britain, so expect more in the way of cloud and rain here from time to time later, as high pressure drifts westward, the flow turns more north-westerly through all areas, allowing this more unsettled weather to extend south and east through the bulk of the UK.

    *26/01/12 - 05/02/12*

    This period sees the Atlantic once again take control with a brisk westerly establishing across all areas bringing wet and windy conditions. Turning mild for a time, drier across the south as pressure builds. High pressure begins to dominate to the west a colder north-westerly then northerly digs in, wintry showers extending south as temperatures begin to fall back.

    Simon & Capn Bob

    http://www.weatheron...ad&DAY=20120102


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    #3136
    Musicman2000
    Registered Users Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    jirafa wrote: »
    Valid from 14/01 to 10/02 2012

    Colder late January

    The forecast period from late-autumn into the beginning of this winter has been 'particularly challenging' both in terms of pinning down sufficient confidence in a sustainable pattern. There has been a good deal of cold Arctic air piling up the north, the 'deal' was attempting to see whether the pattern conditions would be favourable to 'trigger' this air to come south into the UK? This has been a winter period the like of which I have not seen for some time, that said, with some reservations I have had this 'feeling' that winter 201-12 would always be late. This is not the winter of the previous two years, when it arrives it will be notable, such will be the contrast to present conditions. I believe that it'll be the mid-late January period when this arrives?

    *14/01/12*

    After a brief taste of winter in the short term, conditions will revert to an Atlantic flow with generally mild conditions establishing across all areas of the UK. There'll be periods of wind and rain for all of us, gales in exposed areas to the west and north, some of this rain will be heavy at times with blustery showers following as brighter and cooler conditions pass through on a brisk west to north-westerly flow. There will be some drier and brighter intervals between the main rain bands, the more southern and south-eastern areas of Britain favoured to see this, sheltered from the mainly west to north-westerly flow. There is the hint that these more southern areas will become largely dry later as pressure begins to rise.

    *15/01/12 - 20/01/12*

    It is through this period that the patterns do suggest a rise in pressure, where this takes place is 'debatable' at the moment, also the threat that it may turn substantially colder. On current evidence a rise in pressure will take place, a suggestion that this'll be to the northwest or northwest a much colder outbreak of Arctic air moving south through all areas on a northerly to north-easterly flow. Much of the available precipitation turning wintry in nature, frost becoming widespread overnight as high pressure slips across the UK and winds fall light, a less cold flow across the north and northwest as a light south-westerly establishes here. As high pressure slips further east a light southerly to south-easterly flow becomes established through all areas, so mainly dry, broken cloud and chilly for most.

    *21/01/12 - 25/01/12*

    High pressure once again takes control as it drifts in the UK, the mainly dry settled and chilly conditions maintained through most areas. Some indication of a strengthening westerly flow over the northern half of Britain, so expect more in the way of cloud and rain here from time to time later, as high pressure drifts westward, the flow turns more north-westerly through all areas, allowing this more unsettled weather to extend south and east through the bulk of the UK.

    *26/01/12 - 05/02/12*

    This period sees the Atlantic once again take control with a brisk westerly establishing across all areas bringing wet and windy conditions. Turning mild for a time, drier across the south as pressure builds. High pressure begins to dominate to the west a colder north-westerly then northerly digs in, wintry showers extending south as temperatures begin to fall back.

    Simon & Capn Bob

    http://www.weatheron...ad&DAY=20120102

    Take this update with a pinch of Salt, I dont know how many times they have changed their outlook's. It will be something else next week when the models change


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    #3137
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    Latest GFS keeps temps around average or slightly above for the time of year for much of the next 2 weeks at least.


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    #3138
    davidsr20
    Registered Users Posts: 768 ✭✭✭davidsr20


    Guys is this cold event really going to happen as mixed comments are huge this last few weeks ;(


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    #3139
    Musicman2000
    Registered Users Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    Good to see the vortex move to scandi on the Ecm, still at 240hrs, This would allow heights build into greenland. Hopefully the Ecm will stick to this in the next few runs which would allow the change come towards the end of January. The only problem it would give a Northerly blast rather than an easterly.

    ECM1-240.GIF?03-0


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    #3140
    Joe Public
    Registered Users Posts: 1,777 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    davidsr20 wrote: »
    Guys is this cold event really going to happen as mixed comments are huge this last few weeks ;(

    It's too far out yet for anyone to be confident and not helped by the volatility of the current systems.


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    #3141
    oisingeogho
    Registered Users Posts: 54 ✭✭oisingeogho


    over the past few days the 13th of January has always had a nice chart hopefully that will mean something?


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    #3142
    Wild Bill
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,129 ✭✭✭Wild Bill


    oisingeogho wrote: »
    over the past few days the 13th of January has always had a nice chart hopefully that will mean something?

    I fear it will simply mean more disappointment for snow groupies :(


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    #3143
    Nabber
    Registered Users Posts: 2,855 ✭✭✭Nabber


    Musicman2000 wrote: »
    Good to see the vortex move to scandi on the Ecm, still at 240hrs, This would allow heights build into greenland. Hopefully the Ecm will stick to this in the next few runs which would allow the change come towards the end of January. The only problem it would give a Northerly blast rather than an easterly.

    GFS has us in a Westerly set up even with the Vortex over Scandi. We still seem to get an onslaught of low after low.


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    #3144
    Harps
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,548 ✭✭✭Harps


    Interesting GFS tonight, very similar to the ECMWF around mid-month with heights building over Greenland and a blast of cold air moving towards us. GFS control also showing it. Neither build towards anything too exciting but increasing signs of the vortex losing its dominating influence


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    #3145
    Duiske
    Registered Users Posts: 3,087 ✭✭✭Duiske


    Harps wrote: »
    Interesting GFS tonight, very similar to the ECMWF around mid-month with heights building over Greenland and a blast of cold air moving towards us. GFS control also showing it. Neither build towards anything too exciting but increasing signs of the vortex losing its dominating influence
    Noticed that myself. Glimmer of hope for the snow/cold lovers, but only a glimmer @ 10 days away.


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    #3146
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,334 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Get ready for an unstable period for model runs even in 3-6 day "reliable" time frames as a pattern change seems imminent over the Atlantic. I think there will be model runs coming along next 3-4 days with much better winter synoptics but they may continue to flip-flop until we can actually split the vortex.

    I mentioned in my forecast today that I have low confidence in mild pattern output as early as this weekend but certainly by Monday 9th, watch for larger energy peaks to show up soon in model output with a NW to SE theme developing.

    Despite the recent mild two week period, the thermocline to the north of Faeroes is situated well south of Jan Mayen to eastern Iceland in comparison to other recent winters, which argues for a rather fast pattern change if one does develop.

    This recent deep storm appears to have decoupled from the jet already and is setting up in the Baltic from where it could become a vortex attracting dead low that will pull down vortmaxes from the Norwegian Sea into the Balkan region. If that were to start to retrograde at all, then very rapid pattern change as in Jan 1987 could follow.


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    #3147
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Oh yes all indices have been hinting the drop.
    I feel the Ice Queen has been gathering her troops and shall send forth once again
    The might of the Great White Siberian Army.:D:D:D:eek::eek::eek::eek:

    For the answer my friends is,

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6tAFV1irG2E


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    #3148
    only one
    Registered Users Posts: 130 ✭✭only one


    What was jan 87 like?


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    #3149
    leahyl
    Registered Users Posts: 14,244 ✭✭✭✭leahyl


    only one wrote: »
    What was jan 87 like?

    3969885668_6caaf71e94_z.jpg?zz=1
    :eek::eek::D


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    #3150
    only one
    Registered Users Posts: 130 ✭✭only one


    leahyl wrote: »
    only one wrote: »
    What was jan 87 like?

    3969885668_6caaf71e94_z.jpg?zz=1
    :eek::eek::D
    Lol looks lovely! Fingers crossed for the south east what ever happens


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    #3151
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    only one wrote: »
    What was jan 87 like?

    Original post from Red
    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=76167778&postcount=41


This discussion has been closed.
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