Potential Stormy Conditions 21st-23rd May

Storm to the north, high to the south, jetstream passing through the middle of the country. Does this not spell tornado potential for any spot between Galway and Dublin??

Deleted User wrote: »

where you?

wind gusting stronger here and with shorter intervals
West Dublin

Mayo.

M6 buoy was gusting to 54 knots at 0200h. The gradient looks quite fierce on the 3h forecast product on the met.ie website. Timing is unfortunately almost perfect for delivering the winds at maximum strength during the morning to mid-day hours. We didn't talk about this before, but one lucky thing is that we are almost midway from full moon to new moon and this would reduce possible storm surges on west coast bays and harbours. Even so, there could be some limited overtopping around Galway and Mayo at high tides.

Valentia is gusting to 40 knots, staying within 10 of Belmullet so far, which I think confirms my suspicion that the wind field would expand and be fairly intense across all regions.

The strongest winds are still 150-250 miles offshore and the system continues to develop. Further updates from me likely to be in the form of the next morning forecast, but I imagine some of our regular observers will be moved to post observations despite the late hour, as the wind is likely to keep some people awake tonight in the northwest especially.

Nothing happening here atm ...bit breezy

The record set on 7 May 2003 occurred with a similar looking low although at map times (00z 7th, 8th) it was 10 mbs less intense than today's. This suggests Belmullet could hit 70-75 kts for a peak gust later today.

Have seen gusts to 60 kts at M6 buoy several hours in a row as winds there have veered from SSW to WSW. Low is about 978 mbs and located near 56N 14 W or outer Donegal Bay heading northeast. Models suggest strongest gradient between 0900 and 1200h.

Now it's mainly a case of radar watching for any locally severe storm gusts.

There has been a major tornado disaster in the U.S. Sunday, in Joplin MO, and this alone may affect the Obama visit even if your weather doesn't.

(he might decide to stay in America)

I am pulling an "all-nighter" local time to watch this, at least until I feel like the risk of severe wind gusts has ended.

Really started to gust here now. Small branches already down. Goes completely calm for a few seconds and then BAM !!

Horrible conditions here, Co Laois, driving rain.

Bodes well for a good summer - but signs are it will be a bad winter.

G.

Was very windy between 5am & 7am here, has died down a little now.

At 0800h Belmullet reported 71 kt gust, this according to DE's post would be a new record for May (recent past anyway).

I think the central pressure has fallen to about 973 mbs despite all short-term models depicting closer to 980, based on 978 mbs at K4 buoy which is at least 100 nm from the centre (now at 57N 13W).

The system is travelling almost as fast as the maximum gusts, so if it manages to phase totally, it could increase to 80 kts or more for max gusts.

The big question now is what happens in 2-3 hours when squally showers start coming inland around Galway. This needs to be watched very closely for local storm development. Satellite shows a clear patch offshore between the frontal cloud inland and the developing CBs out to the west. At the rate the system is moving these will be able to cross Ireland in 2-3 hours.

Bucketing down now in Dublin 9, don't want to get off the bus....!