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Wind farms - ugly truths

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 6,376 Mod ✭✭✭✭Macha


    Please stop using retail prices as evidence of anything. They are made up of so many components and need so much explanation, they're practicaly useless in understanding any one part of the energy system


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,691 ✭✭✭fclauson


    interesting when there is too much wind and it get shut down what happens to the wholesale price

    368923.jpg


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    Birdnuts wrote: »
    If it made such a substantial difference - then account for the fact that Irish retail energy prices rose sharply in that time??.
    Why do you insist on using retail prices as an indicator of absolutely everything?
    Birdnuts wrote: »
    And yet you also continue to claim that wind energy is cheap. You have provided no credible answer to any of these questions in this thread.
    I presume by “credible answer” you mean “answer you agree with”?
    Birdnuts wrote: »
    Well that's just not true now is it??
    Yes, it is – I provided the link to the relevant Eurostat data a few posts ago. Prices across Europe have been on a general upward trend for the last ten years or so.
    Birdnuts wrote: »
    and that table also highlights that your constant denial that there is no link between the amount of installed wind/solar and energy prices…
    Please point out where I said there was no link.


  • Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 22,540 Mod ✭✭✭✭bk


    So the UK government has announced that they are going to phase out all coal plants by 2025:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34851718

    But by replacing it with more gas and nuclear, not wind.

    It seems the governments are coming to a realisation on the ugly truth about wind.

    Personally I'd love to see our own government make the same goal of closing all coal and peat generation by 2025. Probably replaced mostly with Gas and greater interconnection with the UK to use their Nuclear and indirectly Norwegian hydro.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,431 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    So if everyone switches to nice clean gas and nuclear ain't great what happens to the price of gas -

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,655 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Macha wrote: »
    Please stop using retail prices as evidence of anything. They are made up of so many components and need so much explanation, they're practicaly useless in understanding any one part of the energy system

    What a bizarre statement!! This thread is about having wind energy on national grids and its knock on affects. What other measure is there of the costs of operating such grids?? :confused:

    PS: On this subject, Very interesting admission by the former chief scientist in the UK department of energy recently admitting that the cost of wind/solar on their grid has been dramatically underestimated for years
    http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2015/11/18/decc-consistently-misled-public-over-electricity-costs.html

    I have been quite strongly against the use of levelised costs (LCOE), referring to it as "the great levelised costs lie". It's therefore gratifying to see Mackay publicly agreeing with me

    and tellingly further down

    "It's a pity that this use of whole system costs was not extended to, say, the regular statements on comparative costs of electricity generation that DECC has been putting out for years, including all the time that Mackay was in position as chief scientist. These have exclusively used levelised costs.

    But it's good that an insider has finally admitted that the government has been misleading us about electricity costs for years."



    "

    Some other very interesting stuff on that link I will go into more detail over the coming days


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,655 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Markcheese wrote: »
    So if everyone switches to nice clean gas and nuclear ain't great what happens to the price of gas -

    Natural gas production is rocketing across the globe with even the US now in surplus and vast new gas field discoveries in places like East Africa and Brazil. Many producing countries are now desperate to sell the stuff via LNG and still others are simply burning off vast amounts as a waste product from oil production. Taking these changes into account along with increasing energy efficiency technology in homes and businesses, gas powered systems will certainly play a big role in our energy futures. These are the major reasons CO2 emmissions have dropped so dramatically in the US in the last 10 years(Gas is displacing dirty coal in the energy mix) despite a recovering economy. Retail energy prices there are also lot lower compared to most leading European economies too.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 6,376 Mod ✭✭✭✭Macha


    Birdnuts wrote: »
    What a bizarre statement!! This thread is about having wind energy on national grids and its knock on affects. What other measure is there of the costs of operating such grids?? :confused:
    Costs and prices are two different things. I think I've said that statement about seven separate times on this form.

    For example, retail prices can go up when taxes go up. Retail prices can be kept artificially low through subsidies from general taxation. Retail prices can go up when network costs go up.

    See?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 6,376 Mod ✭✭✭✭Macha


    Birdnuts wrote: »
    I'd take SEAI research on such things with a large dose of salt given there constant promotion of wind energy over the alternatives and ongoing failure to do a proper CBA on said system. The link below higlights some the issues concerned with SEAI "research"
    That's a pretty obvious fallacy of argument to authority. If you find a flaw in the methodology of the research I quoted, please do let me know. Otherwise it stands valid.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,431 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    Birdnuts wrote:
    Natural gas production is rocketing across the globe with even the US now in surplus and vast new gas field discoveries in places like East Africa and Brazil. Many producing countries are now desperate to sell the stuff via LNG and still others are simply burning off vast amounts as a waste product from oil production. Taking these changes into account along with increasing energy efficiency technology in homes and businesses, gas powered systems will certainly play a big role in our energy futures. These are the major reasons CO2 emmissions have dropped so dramatically in the US in the last 10 years(Gas is displacing dirty coal in the energy mix) despite a recovering economy. Retail energy prices there are also lot lower compared to most leading European economies too.

    I get that natural gas production is increasing ... and most of those emerging economies are massively upping their use of energy . Fracking in the Us and elsewhere gives an inital glut of gas and drops steadily from then on. ( so very finite especially when taken in terms of the life of power stations and energy systems)
    On the plus side LNG has become a lot more flexible and cheaper with the new floating platforms...
    But demand for gas and electricity will seriously increase in the europe too if/when electric becomes the new diesel.. and coal is phased out..
    I cant see domestic electricity efficency making much difference ..

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    Birdnuts wrote: »
    Retail energy prices there are also lot lower compared to most leading European economies too.
    Even though there has been a massive expansion of wind generation in the US?


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,869 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Birdnuts wrote: »
    Retail energy prices there are also lot lower compared to most leading European economies too.
    indeed, retail petrol prices over there are a lot lower :rolleyes:


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,655 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Macha wrote: »
    That's a pretty obvious fallacy of argument to authority. If you find a flaw in the methodology of the research I quoted, please do let me know. Otherwise it stands valid.

    I already posted a link highlighting the flaws in SEAI "research" on that matter in that same post. You obviously didn't bother to read it. Neither have you offered any explanation as to where this supposed "billion euro saving" went??.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,655 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    djpbarry wrote: »
    Even though there has been a massive expansion of wind generation in the US?

    Only in some states - and with predictable results

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2014/10/17/electricity-prices-soaring-in-top-10-wind-power-states/


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,655 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Macha wrote: »
    Costs and prices are two different things. I think I've said that statement about seven separate times on this form.

    For example, retail prices can go up when taxes go up. Retail prices can be kept artificially low through subsidies from general taxation. Retail prices can go up when network costs go up.

    See?


    This thread is about the real cost of wind energy on a grid - and you now want to ignore the higher network costs, extra levies and taxes etc. associated with having wind energy on a grid. Next you'll be claiming that wind power is free!!:rolleyes: The facts are that there is a clear link between installed wind capacity and high power prices - in fact 84% of variation in energy costs across the EU are explained by costs associated with wind/solar.


    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/08/03/obama-may-finally-succeed/

    "That is a most interesting result. Per capita installed renewable capacity by itself explains 84% of the variation in electricity costs. "


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,655 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Markcheese wrote: »
    I get that natural gas production is increasing ... and most of those emerging economies are massively upping their use of energy . Fracking in the Us and elsewhere gives an inital glut of gas and drops steadily from then on. ..

    Theres a lot more to the US gas glut story than fracking. And they've only scratched the surface of that anyway. New technology is allowing vast new gas fields to be tapped in deeper continental shelf waters too. Indeed the outlook for a long lasting glut is such that the likes of SHELL and STATEOIL have now halted nearly all their Arctic drilling operations on the back of it as there are far more easier reserves to now tap


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 6,376 Mod ✭✭✭✭Macha


    Birdnuts wrote: »
    This thread is about the real cost of wind energy on a grid - and you now want to ignore the higher network costs, extra levies and taxes etc. associated with having wind energy on a grid. Next you'll be claiming that wind power is free!!:rolleyes: The facts are that there is a clear link between installed wind capacity and high power prices - in fact 84% of variation in energy costs across the EU are explained by costs associated with wind/solar.
    No, that's not what I said. But you need to demonstrate that's actually what's happening, not just claiming it's the case. Just stating retail prices are going up and there are more renewables, ergo renewables are increasing retail prices is correlation, not causation.

    To give another example, retail electricity prices have recently gone up in Greece. And renewables have been increasing on the grid. But what is the real reason why prices went up? They just deregulated retail electricity prices. Here's another: prices just went up in France. Why? The government regulates prices and just decided it has to go up to cover increased nuclear costs. See?

    If there's such a clear link, I'm sure you'll be able to provide some decent evidence. And you'll also be able to give an answer to the fact that Europe's generation and transition grid assets are ageing and have to be replaced anyway over the coming years.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    Birdnuts wrote: »
    Rather strange that neither Texas nor California, the two biggest investors in wind generation, are mentioned?


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,655 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    djpbarry wrote: »
    Rather strange that neither Texas nor California, the two biggest investors in wind generation, are mentioned?

    Energy poverty becoming a serious issue due to rising energy prices in California on the back of wind/solar

    http://www.cnsnews.com/commentary/cnsnewscom-staff/californias-green-energy-policies-are-driving-rising-numbers-energy


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,655 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Macha wrote: »
    No, that's not what I said. But you need to demonstrate that's actually what's happening, not just claiming it's the case. Just stating retail prices are going up and there are more renewables, ergo renewables are increasing retail prices is correlation, not causation.

    To give another example, retail electricity prices have recently gone up in Greece. And renewables have been increasing on the grid. But what is the real reason why prices went up? They just deregulated retail electricity prices. Here's another: prices just went up in France. Why? The government regulates prices and just decided it has to go up to cover increased nuclear costs. See?

    If there's such a clear link, I'm sure you'll be able to provide some decent evidence. And you'll also be able to give an answer to the fact that Europe's generation and transition grid assets are ageing and have to be replaced anyway over the coming years.

    I already provided a link showing that 84% of increased costs on such grids are down to adding wind/solar. And plenty more links in this thread showing similar outcomes. The Greek state can no longer afford the largesse of supporting wind developers via tax credits,subsidies etc. and is now passing the cost directly on to its hard pressed citizens. Nothing to celebrate there. In France it is notable that since Hollande came to power and his adoption of Germany's dubious energy policies, the price of power has started to rise significantly, just like what happened with its near neighbour that is a decade futher down the wind/solar road and already has power prices nearly twice France's.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,655 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    breakdown of Danish consumer electricity price
    dkk.png

    Denmark has high "green" energy taxes to support tax credits,incentives etc. aimed at the wind/solar industry ie. another type of support for the industry outside of direct tariffs, PSO levys' etc. This is a factor on many grids pushing so called "green" energy. Transmission costs are also higher in such grids for obvious reasons with sprawling wind farms often being remote from where the power demand actually is. Interesting discussion of these factors in the link below

    http://judithcurry.com/2015/05/12/true-costs-of-wind-electricity/

    a telling quote from no less than Warren Buffet on the matter

    "I will do anything that is basically covered by the law to reduce Berkshire’s tax rate. For example, on wind energy, we get a tax credit if we build a lot of wind farms. That’s the only reason to build them. They don’t make sense without the tax credit"

    That tax credit alone was costing US taxpayers billions of dollars every year


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 267 ✭✭OssianSmyth


    Fossil fuel generation does not pay the cost of the pollution damage it causes to society (the social cost of carbon). The freedom to pollute at no cost (untaxed externalities) is a subsidy from the state. By analogy, if you could get free permits from the state to throw your waste on the street that would be a similar subsidy.

    The US estimates this carbon subsidy at $40/tonne and uses this figure in cost benefit analysis where releasing more CO2 is part of the plan. The Stern review estimated $300/tonne while Richard Tol's estimate for ESRI was about $200/tonne. Whatever it is, it's not zero.

    Power generation in Ireland is covered by the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, whereby power plants need a permit for each tonne of CO2 emitted. However, most of these permits are allocated for free at the start of each year.

    If fossil fuel generation stops being subsidised, there would be little need for price guarantees for wind. The current price guarantee for wind is a 15-year term in Ireland, after which it competes freely. Compare that with 45yr inflation guaranteed price offered to nuclear in the UK.

    Onshore wind cannot be the answer alone for Ireland. We need a broad mix of clean energy sources from biogas to solar and tidal. We need more international interconnection and storage. We need to insulate our homes and make our transport more efficient and we need to reorder our electricity network to allow every home to generate its own power and sell the surplus back to the grid.

    We will also need peaking plants powered by biomass or gas. The idea of baseload is coming to an end.

    GET_en__2A14_renewables_need_flexible_backup_not_baseload.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,655 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Fossil fuel generation does not pay the cost of the pollution damage it causes to society (the social cost of carbon). The freedom to pollute at no cost (untaxed externalities) is a subsidy from the state. By analogy, if you could get free permits from the state to throw your waste on the street that would be a similar subsidy.

    The US estimates this carbon subsidy at $40/tonne and uses this figure in cost benefit analysis where releasing more CO2 is part of the plan. The Stern review estimated $300/tonne while Richard Tol's estimate for ESRI was about $200/tonne. Whatever it is, it's not zero.

    Power generation in Ireland is covered by the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, whereby power plants need a permit for each tonne of CO2 emitted. However, most of these permits are allocated for free at the start of each year.

    If fossil fuel generation stops being subsidised, there would be little need for price guarantees for wind. The current price guarantee for wind is a 15-year term in Ireland, after which it competes freely. Compare that with 45yr inflation guaranteed price offered to nuclear in the UK.

    Onshore wind cannot be the answer alone for Ireland. We need a broad mix of clean energy sources from biogas to solar and tidal. We need more international interconnection and storage. We need to insulate our homes and make our transport more efficient and we need to reorder our electricity network to allow every home to generate its own power and sell the surplus back to the grid.

    We will also need peaking plants powered by biomass or gas. The idea of baseload is coming to an end.

    GET_en__2A14_renewables_need_flexible_backup_not_baseload.png

    So your arguement is tax fossil fuel to levels that make wind seem compeditive?? How does that work when reneweables like wind/solar can't provide baseload and need to be backed up by conventional plant?? Does you plan take account of energy poverty or the fact that it will simply mean many industries moving to economies with cheaper energy prices??. Would it not make more sense to invest in energy saving measure like retrofitting houseing stock instead of further handouts for wind energy speculators. Are you aware that fossil fuels are already heavily taxed in this and other Western countries?? eg. Most of the price of a litre of petrol in this country is made up of tax.

    The problem with simplistic knee jerk energy policies is highligted in the piece below. Also highlights how many in the so-called "green" movement appear to think that forcing emmissions abroad is the same as "emmision reduction"


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/12009962/The-UKs-energy-policy-is-an-act-of-national-suicide.html





    "She seems wholly oblivious to the fact that, with the approach of that Paris climate conference, both China and India have announced that, over the next 15 years, they plan to double and triple their CO2 emissions by building hundreds more coal-fired power stations. They each plan to add more CO2 every year than the mere 1.2 per cent of global man-made CO2 emitted by Britain."


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    Birdnuts wrote: »
    Energy poverty becoming a serious issue due to rising energy prices in California on the back of wind/solar
    You keep shifting the goalposts.

    You originally stated that retail energy prices are far lower in the US than in Europe, on the back of increased gas production. Now you’re saying energy poverty is becoming an issue in the US on the back of increased investment in renewables.

    So which is it?
    Birdnuts wrote: »
    Are you aware that fossil fuels are already heavily taxed in this and other Western countries??
    They’re also heavily subsidised.


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,869 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Birdnuts wrote: »
    So your arguement is tax fossil fuel to levels that make wind seem compeditive??
    Nope. The argument is to remove the hidden subsidies on fossil and nuclear so it's a level playing field.

    Basics like exhaust scrubbing and covering the proven health costs of fossil fuel. It's making the polluters pay.

    Fossil fuels are cheap at the moment, but their side effects aren't.


    Fingers crossed for energy storage breakthroughs or improved energy to fuel or using mantle rocks to release hydrogen and adsorb carbon dioxide.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,655 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    djpbarry wrote: »
    You keep shifting the goalposts.

    You originally stated that retail energy prices are far lower in the US than in Europe, on the back of increased gas production. Now you’re saying energy poverty is becoming an issue in the US on the back of increased investment in renewables.

    .

    In general they are - My point was that states in the US that have added siginficant amounts of wind energy to their grid have seen costs rise sharply compared to states that haven't.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,655 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Nope. The argument is to remove the hidden subsidies on fossil and nuclear so it's a level playing field.

    .

    Hidden subsidies?? As I stated earlier most of the cost of petrol/diesel in this country is now tax. Can you point out the "hidden subsidies" in any of that??:confused:


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,869 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Birdnuts wrote: »
    My point was that states in the US that have added siginficant amounts of wind energy to their grid have seen costs rise sharply compared to states that haven't.
    Don't forget how the likes of Enron manipulated the market. Tricks like selling power back to the place they exported it from.

    The nice thing about renewables is reasonably predictable fuel costs into the future and very few future costs for decommissioning or storage or clean up.



    Meanwhile in Japan they are still arguing about a nuclear plant that only supplied power to the grid for one hour. I couldn't make it up. Overall project cost , including reprocessing , is about $20Bn
    http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/11/23/reference/fate-of-troubled-monju-reactor-hangs-in-the-balance/#.VlOsw-JDvDc


    And just to remind everyone that nuclear just isn't reliable. It's really between fossil and renewables.
    But it doesn't get that cold in Switzerland in winter does it ???
    http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/nuclear-power_radioactivity-measured-automatically-in-swiss-rivers/41783720
    Four of the country’s five reactors are temporarily offline for different reasons. Since August 14 block 2 at the nuclear power plant Beznau in canton Aargau has been offline. It will be out of service for four months while maintenance is carried out.

    Block 1 at the plant has been out of service since March due to irregularities in the pressure vessel. Weak spots were found in the 15cm steel covering of the vessel.

    Nuclear power plants in Leibstadt and Mühleberg are also currently not producing any energy due to annual maintenance service.
    Back in August they were all offline.


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 90,869 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Birdnuts wrote: »
    Hidden subsidies?? As I stated earlier most of the cost of petrol/diesel in this country is now tax. Can you point out the "hidden subsidies" in any of that??:confused:
    Our power stations run on petrol / diesel and pay retail cost ? :confused:



    http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/resources/energysubsidies/
    The IEA’s latest estimates indicate that fossil-fuel consumption subsidies worldwide amounted to $548 billion in 2013, $25 billion down on the previous year, in part due to the drop in international energy prices, with subsidies to oil products representing over half of the total. Those subsidies were over four-times the value of subsidies to renewable energy and more than four times the amount invested globally in improving energy efficiency.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,655 ✭✭✭Birdnuts


    Don't forget how the likes of Enron manipulated the market. Tricks like selling power back to the place they exported it from.

    The nice thing about renewables is reasonably predictable fuel costs into the future and very few future costs for decommissioning or storage or clean up.



    Meanwhile in Japan they are still arguing about a nuclear plant that only supplied power to the grid for one hour. I couldn't make it up. Overall project cost , including reprocessing , is about $20Bn
    http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/11/23/reference/fate-of-troubled-monju-reactor-hangs-in-the-balance/#.VlOsw-JDvDc


    And just to remind everyone that nuclear just isn't reliable. It's really between fossil and renewables.
    But it doesn't get that cold in Switzerland in winter does it ???
    http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/nuclear-power_radioactivity-measured-automatically-in-swiss-rivers/41783720Back in August they were all offline.


    Reneweables are predictably unreliable - how is that an asset on a grid??. At the end of the day you can't run a grid without baseload, as the UK found out recently when wind/solar was producing FA at a time of peak demand. It is indeed interesting how Japan is putting many of its nukes back online after a big push with regards wind/solar. Just goes to show that reality has to be faced, something which those who push wind/solar prefer to ignore, and on the evidence of certain contribitors here, not even discussed.


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