Wind farms - ugly truths

fclauson · 16-11-2015 8:46am

So back to my OP and costs
At the mo 53% of Ireland energy is coming from renewable -is this a good thing

on the positive
Lower emissions
less fuel imports

on the negative
we are paying €80/Mw rather than €35ish which equates to at 4500Mwh demand and 2300Mwh from wind €260K vs €157K/hr if it came from gas - i.e. roughly €100K more per hour
we have doubled up our infrastructure to achieve this
most of the revenue to wind farms is going abroad and outside of the Irish tax base
even in high winds residents near wind farms (which are typically very rural) are being seriously acoustically impacted

and we are still importing via the inter connector

My view still stands as it did in post 1 that wind is a poor investment vs the many other ways of reducing energy demand and increasing energy efficiencies

djpbarry · 16-11-2015 11:43am

Birdnuts wrote: »

France has added a serious amount of wind/solar during that time as anyone who has visited the place in recent years can attest too.

The overwhelming majority of French electricity is generated by nuclear and hydro, yet prices are climbing, just like they are in virtually every other European country, regardless of how many wind turbines have been installed.

Birdnuts wrote: »

I find it amazing your conflating welfare cuts affecting pensioners to wind developers being out of pocket.

I find it amazing that you’re unaware of the Tories making massive spending cuts across the board.

djpbarry · 16-11-2015 11:43am

fclauson wrote: »

we are paying €80/Mw rather than €35ish which equates to at 4500Mwh demand and 2300Mwh from wind €260K vs €157K/hr if it came from gas - i.e. roughly €100K more per hour

What are you basing these figures on?

16-11-2015 2:01pm

fclauson wrote: »

So back to my OP and costs
we are paying €80/Mw rather than €35ish which equates to at 4500Mwh demand and 2300Mwh from wind €260K vs €157K/hr if it came from gas - i.e. roughly €100K more per hour

I'm not sure about the prices here (not saying they're wrong - I just am not sure where they're coming from - is it including some measure of associated transmission cost or something?).

Using REFIT for wind (the guaranteed price wind gets) would give €69.5-72 depending on size of farm. Split the difference and call it €71/MWh. 2300MWh@€71= 163k.

For the rest, it gets a bit more complicated. The Irish power market uses the marginal unit to set the price (the last unit to be switched on sets how much everyone gets paid - which means since generators have to bid in their real cost to generate power, the amount of profit they make is proportional to how much more efficient they are than the last necessary generator at a given time). Wind bids in zero into this market, which means that it pushes down the marginal system price (and so reduces the amount of money that has to be paid for the rest of the generation on the system).

So, using the other numbers from your example, you either have 2300*€71+2200*€35 (a fairly reasonable price for coal without carbon pricing or a bit low for high efficiency gas plant) or 4500*X. Solving that, it looks like so long as you'd have to have a marginal unit @ €53.5 (I'd say this is about where midmerit gas units would sit) without wind, wind is roughly cost neutral.

fclauson wrote: »

we have doubled up our infrastructure to achieve this

I'm not sure we have. We now have different power plant for different purposes as opposed to "one size fits all needs" setups. Our power system would look different without wind - but I'm not convinced it'd be half the investment cost.

fclauson wrote: »

most of the revenue to wind farms is going abroad and outside of the Irish tax base

No argument here - it's largely the same with the conventional plant though outside what's owned by ESB. Most of them are owned by non-Irish companies. I'd like to see more community ownership myself to keep the money here.

fclauson wrote: »

even in high winds residents near wind farms (which are typically very rural) are being seriously acoustically impacted

I don't know enough about this one to comment really. I'm curious to learn more about it though if you've got any good links on the subject?

fclauson wrote: »

and we are still importing via the inter connector

Well, it's more balanced import/export these days I think since GB introduced a carbon price floor. Either way, it's not a bad thing to see the IC being used. It means we're lowering Irish and GB prices by being able to have a more efficient dispatch. If it wasn't importing or exporting, then it'd be a pointless waste of money to have it.

A good acid test on it is what'd happen if it was unavailable - we wouldn't have blackouts but we would have higher prices as GB and Ireland's prices would decouple.

fclauson wrote: »

My view still stands as it did in post 1 that wind is a poor investment vs the many other ways of reducing energy demand and increasing energy efficiencies

I'm not sure - I suspect wind is broadly somewhere around cost neutral and should be cost negative in the longterm (when REFIT ends, the capital costs should be mainly paid off meaning the price wind needs to stay profitable given maintenance/replacement costs should be much lower).

That said, I do think we missed a trick by punting all our 2020 targets into electricity as opposed to trying to upgrade old housing stock to be more energy efficient and the like. Part of that though is the mismatch between the design of those EU targets and the reality on the ground in Ireland (decreasing energy use for heating wouldn't qualify for a percentage target while a low population density means we've trouble actually having any heating techs that'd qualify).

Macha · 16-11-2015 2:19pm

To point out the obvious - practically all the money from coal and gas goes outside Ireland. We spent on average E6 billion a year importing fossil fuels.

handlemaster · 16-11-2015 3:02pm

Should ireland just build a nuclear plant and forget about the wind projects altogether .

fclauson · 16-11-2015 3:12pm

Macha wrote: »

To point out the obvious - practically all the money from coal and gas goes outside Ireland. We spent on average E6 billion a year importing fossil fuels.

True - my point was that the argument that wind was good as it reduced external cash flow has to be countered by revenue being exported abroad to investors overseas

Macha · 16-11-2015 3:18pm

fclauson wrote: »

True - my point was that the argument that wind was good as it reduced external cash flow has to be countered by revenue being exported abroad to investors overseas

Do you have any figures on it? What percentage of revenue?

fclauson · 16-11-2015 3:31pm

Macha wrote: »

Do you have any figures on it? What percentage of revenue?

Unfortunately nothing impirical but if you look at wind farm ownership there are a lot by foreign investors

16-11-2015 4:16pm

handlemaster wrote: »

Should ireland just build a nuclear plant and forget about the wind projects altogether .

It's pretty difficult to get good information on their technical characteristics online. From memory, I think there's issues around getting them at a small enough size with a low enough minimum generation to suit the size of the Irish system.

Basically since the largest single power source on the power system will set the amount of spinning reserve required, getting a single big inflexible generator could force a lot more spinning reserve to be needed by the system which would force a lot more part loading of generators.

Macha · 16-11-2015 4:19pm

fclauson wrote: »

Unfortunately nothing impirical but if you look at wind farm ownership there are a lot by foreign investors

Any evidence on that?

fclauson · 16-11-2015 8:09pm

Macha wrote: »

Any evidence on that?

Yes - the four local wind farms near me are either owned by Germans or by Belgiums. SSE Airtricity is non Irish - the list goes on

Macha · 16-11-2015 8:11pm

fclauson wrote: »

Yes - the four local wind farms near me are either owned by Germans or by Belgiums. SSE Airtricity is non Irish - the list goes on

Yes but where does the revenue go and how much goes back into the local economy? As I suggested before, you also have to compare with the alternative - e.g. a gas plant.

I'm all for community renewables projects. As an aside - ever heard of a community gas plant? Thought not.

fclauson · 16-11-2015 8:18pm

Macha wrote: »

Yes but where does the revenue go and how much goes back into the local economy? As I suggested before, you also have to compare with the alternative - e.g. a gas plant.

I'm all for community renewables projects. As an aside - ever heard of a community gas plant? Thought not.

Community payments locally here are low or non existanct - few "sweeteners" when the projects where built

Why would the cash go back into the economy ?
There is a small maintenance outfit locally which I believe has 3 vans (so there for probably 6 to 10 people) supporting something like 100+ turbines

Community gas plant - like it

fclauson · 16-11-2015 8:24pm

L some great input - thanks

L wrote: »

I'm not sure about the prices here (not saying they're wrong - I just am not sure where they're coming from - is it including some measure of associated transmission cost or something?).

Using REFIT for wind (the guaranteed price wind gets) would give €69.5-72 depending on size of farm. Split the difference and call it €71/MWh. 2300MWh@€71= 163k.

you have to add the balancing payment of €9.90 or €10.48 as per the bottom of the page on your link - this brings it up to €80

For the rest, it gets a bit more complicated. The Irish power market uses the marginal unit to set the price (the last unit to be switched on sets how much everyone gets paid - which means since generators have to bid in their real cost to generate power, the amount of profit they make is proportional to how much more efficient they are than the last necessary generator at a given time). Wind bids in zero into this market, which means that it pushes down the marginal system price (and so reduces the amount of money that has to be paid for the rest of the generation on the system).

So, using the other numbers from your example, you either have 2300*€71+2200*€35 (a fairly reasonable price for coal without carbon pricing or a bit low for high efficiency gas plant) or 4500*X. Solving that, it looks like so long as you'd have to have a marginal unit @ €53.5 (I'd say this is about where midmerit gas units would sit) without wind, wind is roughly cost neutral.

I was using market price from http://smartgriddashboard.eirgrid.com/ when I took the figures this morning - so for the time of day I pick I think I had the right numbers

I'm not sure we have. We now have different power plant for different purposes as opposed to "one size fits all needs" setups. Our power system would look different without wind - but I'm not convinced it'd be half the investment cost.

No argument here - it's largely the same with the conventional plant though outside what's owned by ESB. Most of them are owned by non-Irish companies. I'd like to see more community ownership myself to keep the money here.

I don't know enough about this one to comment really. I'm curious to learn more about it though if you've got any good links on the subject?

I will not pollute this thread with the noise argument - but I am aware of at least 15 wind farms not meeting their noise compliance limits and which the local LA is doing nothing - leaving local residents to take their own PDA 2000 section 160 (and €50K for their efforts)

We should have a wind farm Zar who acts as an enforcer and mediator

Well, it's more balanced import/export these days I think since GB introduced a carbon price floor. Either way, it's not a bad thing to see the IC being used. It means we're lowering Irish and GB prices by being able to have a more efficient dispatch. If it wasn't importing or exporting, then it'd be a pointless waste of money to have it.

A good acid test on it is what'd happen if it was unavailable - we wouldn't have blackouts but we would have higher prices as GB and Ireland's prices would decouple.

I'm not sure - I suspect wind is broadly somewhere around cost neutral and should be cost negative in the longterm (when REFIT ends, the capital costs should be mainly paid off meaning the price wind needs to stay profitable given maintenance/replacement costs should be much lower).

That said, I do think we missed a trick by punting all our 2020 targets into electricity as opposed to trying to upgrade old housing stock to be more energy efficient and the like. Part of that though is the mismatch between the design of those EU targets and the reality on the ground in Ireland (decreasing energy use for heating wouldn't qualify for a percentage target while a low population density means we've trouble actually having any heating techs that'd qualify).

Macha · 16-11-2015 8:57pm

fclauson wrote: »

Community payments locally here are low or non existanct - few "sweeteners" when the projects where built

Indeed, there are many models of community renewables projects. Ireland isn't exactly a shining light of best practice. That doesn't mean we can't do better.

fclauson wrote: »

Why would the cash go back into the economy ?
There is a small maintenance outfit locally which I believe has 3 vans (so there for probably 6 to 10 people) supporting something like 100+ turbines

I'm still looking for some hard evidence (ie beyond anecdotal) that most of the money invested in Irish wind turbines goes abroad. And a decent comparison with alternative fuels like a gas plant.

fclauson wrote: »

Community gas plant - like it

Now, biogas I could get behind..

Capt'n Midnight · 16-11-2015 9:08pm

Birdnuts wrote: »

An energy system that has to pay big industrial users to shut down production is hardly one to inspire confidence.

It's cheaper than building power stations that are only used rarely. And for industrial users with small profit margins it can be more profitable than production. And reducing demand doesn't necessarily mean stopping production.

"Steelmakers argue the industry in the UK is faced with far higher energy costs than it can cope with and that the compensation packages promised in the March budget haven’t come soon enough.

IIRC Steel industry, apart from niche specialised steels, in the UK has been on it's knees since the 1970's with foreign competition, militant unions , Thatcherism and underinvestment , etc. etc. As a result of that and automation Jobs have fallen from 197,000 to under 20,00.

Capt'n Midnight · 16-11-2015 9:50pm

handlemaster wrote: »

Should ireland just build a nuclear plant and forget about the wind projects altogether .

As pointed out above it would need a lot of spinning reserve. Current and projected nuclear reactors are around 1.2 - 1.6 GW which isn't much above our summer night valley. In addition you also need large inertia generators near the main cities to provide frequency stability, so for much of the time it would be a white elephant.

Also the UK who have a lot more experience with nuclear than we do and a much bigger market are still having to promise to pay ridiculous rates for future nuclear.

Birdnuts · 17-11-2015 2:17am

Macha wrote: »

To point out the obvious - practically all the money from coal and gas goes outside Ireland. We spent on average E6 billion a year importing fossil fuels.

And wind has made very little difference to that spend. Plus many windfarms in this country are owned my foreign vulture funds.

Birdnuts · 17-11-2015 2:23am

djpbarry wrote: »

The overwhelming majority of French electricity is generated by nuclear and hydro, yet prices are climbing, just like they are in virtually every other European country, regardless of how many wind turbines have been installed.
.

Frances retail power prices are still half of Germany's as the latter is way ahead in terms of wind and solar capacity. My point is that France has embarked on a massive wind and solar expansion in recent years and its starting to see energy price rises as a result despite falling gas/oil prices. Yet you keep ignoring these facts with your constant/tiresome "wind is cheap" mantra:rolleyes:

Birdnuts · 17-11-2015 3:41am

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

IIRC Steel industry, apart from niche specialised steels, in the UK has been on it's knees since the 1970's with foreign competition, militant unions , Thatcherism and underinvestment , etc. etc. As a result of that and automation Jobs have fallen from 197,000 to under 20,000.

Energy is a huge cost in the making of steel. UK's rising energy costs look like being the final nail in the coffin of an industry that is still a major employer in certain parts of the UK as may earlier link showed. But I guess if your not affected by such job losses its easy to dismiss such concerns.

Similar issues in Germany too

http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21594336-germanys-new-super-minister-energy-and-economy-has-his-work-cut-out-sunny-windy-costly

"This subsidy is costly. The difference between the market price for electricity and the higher fixed price for renewables is passed on to consumers, whose bills have been rising for years. An average household now pays an extra €260 ($355) a year to subsidise renewables: the total cost of renewable subsidies in 2013 was €16 billion. Costs are also going up for companies, making them less competitive than rivals from America"

fclauson · 17-11-2015 9:26am

djpbarry wrote: »

What are you basing these figures on?

from http://smartgriddashboard.eirgrid.com/ and http://www.dcenr.gov.ie/energy/SiteCollectionDocuments/Renewable-Energy/Refit%20Reference%20Prices.pdf

fclauson · 17-11-2015 9:29am

something nasty happened - wounder what dropped off line

Macha · 17-11-2015 12:36pm

Birdnuts wrote: »

And wind has made very little difference to that spend. Plus many windfarms in this country are owned my foreign vulture funds.

That's not what the research shows: Renewable energy has saved Ireland over €1 billion in fossil fuel imports in past five years.

What is a foreign vulture fund and which Irish wind farms are they involved with?

17-11-2015 12:41pm

fclauson wrote: »

L some great input - thanks

Glad to contribute.

fclauson wrote: »

you have to add the balancing payment of €9.90 or €10.48 as per the bottom of the page on your link - this brings it up to €80

Huh. You're absolutely right - I thought that payment went the way of the dodo when the imbalance prices it was supposed to cover stopped being part of the market but it looks like it hasn't (it really should though). Probably closer to €81/MWh so.

That means the crossover price I was talking about earlier is somewhere around €58.5/MWh - still midmerit gas but probably one of the less efficient units.

fclauson wrote: »

I was using market price from http://smartgriddashboard.eirgrid.com/ when I took the figures this morning - so for the time of day I pick I think I had the right numbers

Yep, they seem reasonable to me at a glance.

For a fuller analysis, it'd be worth seeing can we find roughly equivalent windy/not windy days and running a rough cost comparison between them as there's a couple of peak hours during the day that'll contribute a big chunk of the cost differences. Also worth adjusting for interconnector flows as GB will either be paying for power or getting paid by Ireland.

fclauson wrote: »

I will not pollute this thread with the noise argument - but I am aware of at least 15 wind farms not meeting their noise compliance limits and which the local LA is doing nothing - leaving local residents to take their own PDA 2000 section 160 (and €50K for their efforts)

We should have a wind farm Zar who acts as an enforcer and mediator

That's pretty unfortunate (and illegal). Isn't the EPA supposed to be the noise pollution czar? (Feel free to PM me if we're sidetracking the thread).

Markcheese · 17-11-2015 12:52pm

fclauson wrote:

Yes - the four local wind farms near me are either owned by Germans or by Belgiums. SSE Airtricity is non Irish - the list goes on

Ownership - or even just tax residence is an issue with every company - the days when everything was owned by the state via ESB are long gone , if wind farms in the future become seriously profitable but export their profits out of the state then expect a very large charge or levy or tax of somesort :-)
Lookthe brits are desperately trying to get the chinese and the french to invest in their nuclear industry... guaranteed income for years ... and Edf are still wavering ...

djpbarry · 17-11-2015 12:57pm

Birdnuts wrote: »

And wind has made very little difference to that spend.

I demonstrated earlier in the thread that it’s made a fairly substantial difference. Maybe you’d like to counter with some figures of your own?

Birdnuts wrote: »

Frances retail power prices are still half of Germany's as the latter is way ahead in terms of wind and solar capacity. My point is that France has embarked on a massive wind and solar expansion in recent years and its starting to see energy price rises as a result despite falling gas/oil prices. Yet you keep ignoring these facts with your constant/tiresome "wind is cheap" mantra:rolleyes:

You keep ignoring the fact that energy prices are increasing steadily across Europe, when you earlier in the this thread claimed that there was a correlation between electricity prices and roll-out of wind generation.

Slovenia, Slovakia, Malta, Luxembourg and Latvia generate little or no electricity from wind, yet they have all experienced increases in electricity prices over the last ten years.

Birdnuts wrote: »

Energy is a huge cost in the making of steel.

Not really – provision of raw materials represents by far the biggest input cost.

Birdnuts · 18-11-2015 2:21am

Macha wrote: »

That's not what the research shows: Renewable energy has saved Ireland over €1 billion in fossil fuel imports in past five years.

What is a foreign vulture fund and which Irish wind farms are they involved with?

I'd take SEAI research on such things with a large dose of salt given there constant promotion of wind energy over the alternatives and ongoing failure to do a proper CBA on said system. The link below higlights some the issues concerned with SEAI "research"

http://irishenergyblog.blogspot.ie/2014/12/seais-quantifying-savings-from.html

plus the price of retail energy in Ireland continued to spiral during that time - so if such a large amount of money was saved, the question arises as to where the savings went and who benefitted??. Any time I've heard Motherway or the CER being questioned on this in the media, they have routinely failed to account for these supposed "savings".

PS: On the subject of foreign owned wind farms. Foreign Hedge funds and companies play a big role in the Irish wind farm scene with wind developers like Element power getting permission for projects and then quickly flipping them for a quick profit

http://www.elpower.com/media/news/element-power-closes-sale-45mw-irish-wind-farms-blackrock

http://www.avondhupress.ie/20140319/news/ballyduff-windfarm-sold-by-element-power-S60889.html

https://www.thetrustedinsight.com/investment-news/energy-fund-buys-wind-farm-in-ireland-for-173m-euros-20141204815/

Birdnuts · 18-11-2015 2:28am

djpbarry wrote: »

I demonstrated earlier in the thread that it’s made a fairly substantial difference. Maybe you’d like to counter with some figures of your own?
.

If it made such a substantial difference - then account for the fact that Irish retail energy prices rose sharply in that time??. And yet you also continue to claim that wind energy is cheap. You have provided no credible answer to any of these questions in this thread.

Birdnuts · 18-11-2015 3:02am

djpbarry wrote: »

You keep ignoring the fact that energy prices are increasing steadily across Europe, when you earlier in the this thread claimed that there was a correlation between electricity prices and roll-out of wind generation.

Well that's just not true now is it??

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_pricing#/media/File:Electricity-prices-europe.jpg

and that table also highlights that your constant denial that there is no link between the amount of installed wind/solar and energy prices, is laughable at this stage as anyone can see from the Countries heading up that retail prices league.

Plus interesting article here on the reality of wind/solar across the EU

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/07/31/european-renewable-energy-performance-for-2014-fall-far-short-of-claims/

and now even Denmark has had enough

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/10/09/green-reverse-denmark-abandons-climate-change-targets-scraps-electric-car-subsidies/

"Denmark’s move marks its latest retreat from measures that had once put the Scandinavian country at the forefront of policies designed to promote renewable energy. The three-month-old centre-right Liberal government led by Lars Løkke Rasmussen has already said it is abandoning ambitious CO2 emissions targets and dropping plans to become fossil-fuel free by 2050.
Denmark’s government has also flagged a pull back from decommissioning coal-fired power stations. That policy shift was revealed on Sept. 2, the same day U.S. President Barack Obama made a global appeal for urgent action to fight climate change.
Mr. Frederiksen argues that tough decisions need to be made against the backdrop of a widening budget deficit and subsidising green power projects is no longer financially viable".

Wind farms - ugly truths

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