Dublin West General Election - SEE MOD NOTE POST 19.

Grudaire · 24-02-2015 2:14pm

chucknorris wrote: »

Not at all. It's local democracy. 8 people who live in Hollystown and who were always in Dublin west, were moved to Dublin Fingal after the boundary change, unbeknownst to them, and after repeated requests for over 15 months to stay in Dublin west.

I would consider Chambers effectively threatening legal action against FF pretty dramatic..

Also allegedly McGuinness's election manager tweeted that they'd be running either way.. Also pretty definite statement.

Godge · 24-02-2015 2:42pm

chucknorris wrote: »

None of what you say is or can be true.

There is already a decision that Dublin west will be a one candidate election in terms of FF.

Mary Fitz is not running in Dublin west and neither is anyone from the Lenihan family.

It's quite simple really. The local Dublin west FF members will decide tomorrow who'll represented FF in the G.E. It'll be either McGuinness or Chambers.

Have seen this before.

Local constituency members select one candidate and party adds on another centrally.

The gender quotas mean that at least 30% of a party's candidates must be female. Selecting McGuinness tomorrow will allow FF to add a woman from the other end of the constituency with the excuse of having to meet the gender quota because the other selection conventions didn't do enough.

Adrian Kavanagh lists three possibilities for Dublin West in the attached interesting analysis.

http://adriankavanaghelections.org/2015/01/15/fianna-fails-markiewicz-report-where-could-fianna-fail-run-female-candidates/

chucknorris · 24-02-2015 2:59pm

Grudaire wrote: »

I would consider Chambers effectively threatening legal action against FF pretty dramatic..

Also allegedly McGuinness's election manager tweeted that they'd be running either way.. Also pretty definite statement.

I've seen that being peddled myself. It's rubbish. McGuinness has no campaign manager as there is no campaign, yet.

The tweet was a wind-up three months ago about the same sex referendum, but don't let that get in the way of a good yarn. .

Grudaire · 25-02-2015 1:52pm

Just tweeted by thejournal journalist;
@msaoife I’m told that none of the Hollystown 9 voted in Dublin Fingal selection convention.

I wonder does that mean McGuinness has the numbers!?

chucknorris · 25-02-2015 3:06pm

Grudaire wrote: »

Just tweeted by thejournal journalist;
@msaoife I’m told that none of the Hollystown 9 voted in Dublin Fingal selection convention.

I wonder does that mean McGuinness has the numbers!?

Of course they didn't. It was requested on three occasions in the last year to be automatically kept in Dublin west as their Cumann was originally in an area that was literally been divided by the boundary commission.

Hollystown is in Dublin west. Why select a candidate in Dublin Fingal when you're going to be voting in Dublin west in the next general election.

Had they been disenfranchised with their stated wish to vote in Dublin west, that in its self would have been gerrymandering.

PS: That Tweet is by Joan Burton's daughter.

Arciphel · 25-02-2015 3:27pm

I found this tweet by her to be even more illuminating...

chucknorris · 25-02-2015 3:38pm

Arciphel wrote: »

I found this tweet by her to be even more illuminating...

'If" being the operative word.

Grudaire · 25-02-2015 5:23pm

chucknorris wrote: »

Of course they didn't. It was requested on three occasions in the last year to be automatically kept in Dublin west as their Cumann was originally in an area that was literally been divided by the boundary commission.

Hollystown is in Dublin west. Why select a candidate in Dublin Fingal when you're going to be voting in Dublin west in the next general election.

Had they been disenfranchised with their stated wish to vote in Dublin west, that in its self would have been gerrymandering.

PS: That Tweet is by Joan Burton's daughter.

Totally quoted the wrong tweet..
"Fianna Fáíl HQ upholds decision to move nine party members from Dublin Fingal to Dublin West ahead of tonight’s selection convention"

Godge · 26-02-2015 12:24am

http://www.thejournal.ie/jack-chamber-brian-lenihan-1960101-Feb2015/

Well, well, well.

Jack Chambers? That puts the cat among the pigeons.

A number of questions.

Will FF HQ add McGuinnness?
Can they afford two male candidates in a constituency they could only get one seat max?
If they run a female as a second, to up the quota, all the likely females are from the Chambers end of the constituency so where will they get one from - unless Mary Fitzpatrick?
Will McGuinness run as an independent?

For the wider contest, assuming FF don't run anyone else, it is Donnelly and Coppinger for the two Mulhuddart seats, with Varadkar a certainty for the Castleknock end with Burton, O'Gorman, Chambers and an independent (Hall or mcGuinness if they run) all in the scrap for the last seat.

Edit: Don't know how the smiley got in the title, wasn't meant to be there.

athtrasna · 26-02-2015 12:34am

Surprised and not surprised at the same time. McGuinness has put all the hard work in over the last decade and has been screwed over by his own Party. Yes there's the argument that he had two chances but the fact is, Santa Claus could have run for FF in the last two contests and still wouldn't have taken the seat. Just when memories are starting to fade (average voter's memory appears to be 4-5 years according to recent election results) along comes the squeaky clean new kid on the block.

I'm not a left leaning voter and vote tactically against the left in elections (I think the left are over represented in the Dáil for this Constituency) but Chambers is costing FF a preference from me. Squeaky clean, no connection to the past. But no connection to the voter, less than a year on the council and he's the Messiah? Thanks but no thanks!

Kiwi_knock · 26-02-2015 1:06am

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/fianna-f%C3%A1il-select-jack-chambers-to-contest-general-election-in-dublin-west-1.2117612

“There’s no doubt about it. There’s a class divide in Fianna Fáil and I’m clearly on the wrong side of the tracks. That was clearly evident in Dublin West.
“I am now doing a lot of soul searching and Fianna Fáil and me may part ways.”

Hardly the united front FF would want going into an election. Not sure if it means that McGuinness will go as an independent but I say he will have his supporters after the perceived way FF treated him. I say FF HQ got what they wanted, a Lenihan replacement. Chambers youth and relative inexperience will count against him, a strong independent candidate has a great chance of taking a seat.

Larbre34 · 26-02-2015 8:12am

McGuinness should certainly go as an independent. Leaving Fianna Fáil will only go in his favour.

January · 26-02-2015 8:29am

The only reason ever stopping me voting for McGuinness was his links to Ff. If he ran as an independent he would most probably get my no. 1.

chucknorris · 26-02-2015 8:55am

That's politics for you. It's ruthless.

David will need to take stock of a few things before making any rash decisions. Running in a general election is not only demanding, it's also expensive.

Essentially the work he does and did day to day since he was elected to the local council in 2009, at the age of 22, was basically him and him alone from a day to day point of view. In the by-election last year, none of the Castleknock FF membership (Or the Deerpark mafia as we know them :-), would assist the by-election campaign. They played the long game, by only canvassing and dropping leaflets for JC in the locals, with the hope that a strong enough vote in the Castleknock LEA would set-up a situation that happened last night at convention.

What occurred last night is something that was feared might happen.

There was and still is an opinion that Humpty Dumpty could run in castleknock for FF and command 2500 to 3000 votes. Outside Castleknock is a different proposition and that's where the real battle ground will be won and lost.

Personally I think a strong Independent would be in demand in large swaths of Dublin west, so who knows.

Zaph · 26-02-2015 9:09am

I wouldn't be an FF voter, but I do recognise the amount of work that McGuinness has put in locally and it's disappointing to see the efforts of a local candidate being ignored like this. Chambers hasn't been around long enough to build up a track record, so it's baffling to see him getting the nod. Like January, if he ran as an independent McGuinness would be someone I'd strongly consider voting for.

chucknorris · 26-02-2015 9:14am

Zaph wrote: »

I wouldn't be an FF voter, but I do recognise the amount of work that McGuinness has put in locally and it's disappointing to see the efforts of a local candidate being ignored like this. Chambers hasn't been around long enough to build up a track record, so it's baffling to see him getting the nod. Like January, if he ran as an independent McGuinness would be someone I'd strongly consider voting for.

Appreciate those comments.

The other lad is in college, but you must understand, his father is the top pain consultant in the country and the chairman of FF in Dublin west, so you see how the Deerpark mafia operate. :cool:

It wasn't a vote for the lad, it was a vote for the chairman.

Gaspode · 26-02-2015 9:46am

I know I should be more interested in politics but that sort of crap ^^ reminds me why I'm not.
Nepotism, backhanders, backstabbing, lies and deceit are part and parcel of the 'game' politicos play, and see as the norm.
Then we're expected to trust these goons to run the country? There are not many jobs out there where the candidates have no training to do the job, no qualifications are expected of them, and if they make a balls of it (which they generally do) there are no consequences for them. Even the ones with a known track record of messing up or taking bribes can still be put up for election. And yet being a TD supposed to be the one of the most important jobs in the country?

The way I see it, it doesn't matter who is in government, they don't give two hoots about me or this country, they're there to line their own pockets and sort out their buddies/family as well. Nothing changes when the government changes so picking faces on a ballot sheet may as well be done blindfolded from what I've seen since I started voting in the 80s.

BTW, I'm only reading this thread because I'm a mod here - I know it's of great interest to a lot of you, but it's just getting me annoyed!

chucknorris · 26-02-2015 9:55am

The one positive about last nights result is that it is a burden off the family that David is not under the FF banner.

None of his family are from ANY political lineage. None of them were even registered to vote last night, when they could have been easily lumped in to boost votes. He didn't

He has the lowest claim for any expenses in Fingal co co in the last 6 years and deals with people every day from every part of the constituency. No disrespect to the others, but very few operate outside of their own support base.

So generally there has to be a demand for a middle of the road, all rounder.

Arciphel · 26-02-2015 10:50am

Behind the scenes I would say that he is delighted, now he can say that he is running as an Independent and won't have to put up with the negative FF sentiment on the doorsteps, but if I was him I wouldn't be playing the victim too much.

One thing that I was surprised about was that the margin of the victory for Chambers was 2:1 - "Mr Chambers is understood to have received 88 out of the almost 130 eligible votes, with Mr McGuinness trailing with 48 votes." Now that to me sounds like there has been for a while a knowledge that they were never going to back McGuinness to be the candidate in the elections.

The stuff about Castleknock mafia etc is all pure hyperbole however - candidates in Mulhuddart use this line all the time, "vote for me, shur why would you vote for the lads in Castleknock". The hard done by lines about being from the wrong side of the tracks etc as an attempt to get some support also rankle with me, if you are good enough then it doesn't matter where you from.

Correct me if I am wrong but as I understand it David no longer works in the Corduff area and no longer lives there either, now the fact that he has done a lot of work in the area and represents the people there is fine - but I think nowadays people want more from their TDs than just parish pump politics, that is what county councillors are for.

The stuff about the daddy doesn't surprise me in the least, Ireland in 2015 still the same as it ever was... would now fully expect McGuinness to capture a higher vote as an independent and get a seat.

Toto Wolfcastle · 26-02-2015 10:53am

Pity. I'm not generally a FF voter but I voted for McGuinness last time around and would vote for him again. He seems decent and hard working and comes across as someone who (as far as I can see) is in politics for the right reasons. He's the only politician I've ever contacted over something (something small) and I was impressed with his response.

Chambers, on the other hand, has proven himself in no way to me. He just doesn't have any experience and as a result won't be getting my vote.

I think it's a mistake on FF's part.

chucknorris · 26-02-2015 11:09am

Arciphel wrote: »

One thing that I was surprised about was that the margin of the victory for Chambers was 2:1 - "Mr Chambers is understood to have received 88 out of the almost 130 eligible votes, with Mr McGuinness trailing with 48 votes." Now that to me sounds like there has been for a while a knowledge that they were never going to back McGuinness to be the candidate in the elections.

Correct. In fact in 2011 after Brian Lenihan died, David was 25 votes and so was Edward Mcmanus. David won on the flip of a coin to contest that by-election where he took 22% of the vote. So nothing has ever been easy.

Arciphel wrote: »

The stuff about Castleknock mafia etc is all pure hyperbole however - candidates in Mulhuddart use this line all the time, "vote for me, shur why would you vote for the lads in Castleknock". The hard done by lines about being from the wrong side of the tracks etc as an attempt to get some support also rankle with me, if you are good enough then it doesn't matter where you from.

Correct. The term is used by people who are in political circles. No one else outside of those curcles would know or care about that stuff.

Arciphel wrote: »

Correct me if I am wrong but as I understand it David no longer works in the Corduff area and no longer lives there either, now the fact that he has done a lot of work in the area and represents the people there is fine - but I think nowadays people want more from their TDs than just parish pump politics, that is what county councillors are for.

Correct. David bought a house and lives in Tyrrelstown with his partner and son. He works in Donaghmede.

He does a lot of representative work for people in Corduff, Blanchardstown, Hartstown, castleknock Mulhuddart, Clonee, Clonsilla etc. He would have to now take on commitments for the Navan road also.

Arciphel wrote: »

The stuff about the daddy doesn't surprise me in the least, Ireland in 2015 still the same as it ever was... would now fully expect McGuinness to capture a higher vote as an independent and get a seat.

Correct. I believe there is a hugh middle of the road vote there to be earned and worked for.

dodzy · 26-02-2015 11:13am

Gaspode wrote: »

I know I should be more interested in politics but that sort of crap ^^ reminds me why I'm not.
Nepotism, backhanders, backstabbing, lies and deceit are part and parcel of the 'game' politicos play, and see as the norm.
Then we're expected to trust these goons to run the country? There are not many jobs out there where the candidates have no training to do the job, no qualifications are expected of them, and if they make a balls of it (which they generally do) there are no consequences for them. Even the ones with a known track record of messing up or taking bribes can still be put up for election. And yet being a TD supposed to be the one of the most important jobs in the country?

The way I see it, it doesn't matter who is in government, they don't give two hoots about me or this country, they're there to line their own pockets and sort out their buddies/family as well. Nothing changes when the government changes so picking faces on a ballot sheet may as well be done blindfolded from what I've seen since I started voting in the 80s.

BTW, I'm only reading this thread because I'm a mod here - I know it's of great interest to a lot of you, but it's just getting me annoyed!

Jeez Gaspode, why don't you just say how you feel and stop beating around the bush

ThisRegard · 26-02-2015 11:15am

athtrasna wrote: »

Surprised and not surprised at the same time. McGuinness has put all the hard work in over the last decade and has been screwed over by his own Party.

This I agree with, I've no idea who Chambers is, his name has never come up on my radar locally. I know McGuinness has done a local work in the community and wasn't he runner up last time around ? It's bizarre.

oblivious · 26-02-2015 11:20am

Wow I can't believe they went with chambers, David was the only possible reason I would ever vote FF again. He works hard in the community with a good track record.

chucknorris · 26-02-2015 11:24am

Is there an appetite for a strong independent representative?

Some T.D's are hands off representatives. They go to the Dail and do what ever it is they do in there,

Would it be good, bad or indifferent to have a T.D who is hands on locally as a T.D?

ThisRegard · 26-02-2015 11:25am

oblivious wrote: »

David was the only possible reason I would ever vote FF again. He works hard in the community with a good track record.

I would think this is true for a lot of people, and I think it has been massively underestimated by the party.

January · 26-02-2015 12:38pm

chucknorris wrote: »

Is there an appetite for a strong independent representative?

Some T.D's are hands off representatives. They go to the Dail and do what ever it is they do in there,

Would it be good, bad or indifferent to have a T.D who is hands on locally as a T.D?

I think everyone is looking for a hands on TD sure what's the point otherwise.

chucknorris · 26-02-2015 1:03pm

January wrote: »

I think everyone is looking for a hands on TD sure what's the point otherwise.

I might offend some people by asking and suggesting otherwise, but here goes regarding existing TDs.

Leo is not hands on locally, although I think he is an excellent and honest politician. He does not do the constituency stuff and doesn't wander in to local authority estates. he has his base and he'll stick to the hands off approach.

Joan is definitely not in to the local stuff. She has been a career politician for a long time, but certainly not hands on.

The two socialist TDs in Dublin west are also hands off the individual stuff. They do the big ticket protest items as opposed to the 101 day to day items, but again, they have a support based on the big protest agenda.

January · 26-02-2015 2:29pm

chucknorris wrote: »

I might offend some people by asking and suggesting otherwise, but here goes regarding existing TDs.

Leo is not hands on locally, although I think he is an excellent and honest politician. He does not do the constituency stuff and doesn't wander in to local authority estates. he has his base and he'll stick to the hands off approach.

Joan is definitely not in to the local stuff. She has been a career politician for a long time, but certainly not hands on.

The two socialist TDs in Dublin west are also hands off the individual stuff. They do the big ticket protest items as opposed to the 101 day to day items, but again, they have a support based on the big protest agenda.

I don't think that's necessarily true of Ruth Coppinger anyway (and what I'm about to say doesn't mean I support her either), I know she helped a friend greatly in getting a house from the council when she was made homeless before Christmas. I will preface that by saying it was during the time coming up to the by-election so there could have been some hidden agenda there but she helped.

I haven't heard anything from her since then though.

ThisRegard · 26-02-2015 3:41pm

January wrote: »

I don't think that's necessarily true of Ruth Coppinger anyway .........was during the time coming up to the by-election so there could have been some hidden agenda there but she helped.

I haven't heard anything from her since then though.

I think you answered your own question. She was forever around telling people in my area not to pay their management fees, come election, I don't think the idea of them even crossed her mind.

She's as self serving as they come, in my opinion.

Dublin West General Election - SEE MOD NOTE POST 19.

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