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Wind farms - ugly truths

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    #212
    ted1
    Registered Users Posts: 23,400 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    djpbarry wrote: »
    You know the cost of the wind turbine up front. You’ve got a pretty good idea what the maintenance cost will be and you can forecast over the long term how much power will be generated.

    So, if we say a cost of about £1 million per MW for installation, add say 20% for maintenance over a lifetime of 20 years and assume a capacity factor of say 30%, that works out at less than £0.02 per kWh.

    That’s pretty damn cheap.
    Care to elaborate?
    Name a form of power generation that does not require “back-up”?
    Ever? Really? Demand will never exceed 2006 levels?
    That statement makes no sense.
    They’re obviously not pointless – Ireland’s emissions from power generation are declining quite rapidly.
    Are these the “slightly more independent media”-educated UK consumers who aren’t entirely sure whether the UK is in the EU or not?

    I'm not sure I'd be quite so quick to trust their judgement.
    I didn’t ask for one – I just asked for the source of the raw data used to generate the plot.

    Gas turbines have a lower LCOE

    http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/electricity_generation.cfm


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    #213
    djpbarry
    Registered Users Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    visual wrote: »
    The intention was lots of wind energy and decommissioning of nucular plants reduction in CO2 plus Siemens are big player in turbines was a nice sweetener.
    Let’s not start bringing conspiracy theories to the discussion.


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    #214
    djpbarry
    Registered Users Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    fclauson wrote: »
    So I question your maths
    …
    @ 30% capacity output by 20 years -> 52.5 Gw -> 4.6c per Kwh
    Fine – that’s still pretty cheap, no? I mean, how much is the average Irish household paying for their electricity right now? A hell of a lot more than 4 or 5c per kWh, right?
    fclauson wrote: »
    And this takes no account of Grid25 which is costing (I think) €5B needed to support wind or the backup generation capacity that has to be built to cover when its not running
    Electricity distribution needs modernising right across the world, wind power or no wind power. Attributing those costs specifically to wind power doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.

    As for “back up”, as I’ve already said, it makes no more sense to claim that wind needs back-up than to claim that a gas-fired plant or a nuclear plant requires “back-up”.
    fclauson wrote: »
    and for another graph - source eurostat - note that irish is the most expensive in europe (baring cyprus and malta) and this price has ramped since wind was introduced compared to many other economies
    Has it? I’d like to see a source for that claim.

    As far as I’m aware, Cyprus has very little wind power and Malta virtually none. And yet, you’re trying to claim a correlation between wind power roll-out and electricity prices?


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    #215
    djpbarry
    Registered Users Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    fclauson wrote: »
    I'll accept the abuse this is not peer reviewed

    but it does show madness if its true...
    By the way, I'm still waiting for you to provide your raw data for this.


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    #216
    fclauson
    Registered Users Posts: 1,691 ✭✭✭fclauson


    djpbarry wrote: »
    Fine – that’s still pretty cheap, no? I mean, how much is the average Irish household paying for their electricity right now? A hell of a lot more than 4 or 5c per kWh, right?

    thats just the generation cost - not the profit and distribution costs

    and our old mate - backup costs x 2

    Electricity distribution needs modernising right across the world, wind power or no wind power. Attributing those costs specifically to wind power doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.
    but we do not need masses of HV cables from widely distributed wind farms if we had power generation in a small number of specific places - so it is a costs purely associated with wind
    As for “back up”, as I’ve already said, it makes no more sense to claim that wind needs back-up than to claim that a gas-fired plant or a nuclear plant requires “back-up”.

    You are still missing the point

    Wind needs backup when its running AND when its not running - if you read the US report previously linked to you will see that wind cannot be classed as dispatchable - and hence the need for the backup I keep going on about

    Gas only needs backup when its running

    So for every bit of wind you install you need 2 x backup - have I failed to make this clear - the RA Eng document linked to by me previously makes this point abundantly clear.


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    #217
    fclauson
    Registered Users Posts: 1,691 ✭✭✭fclauson


    djpbarry wrote: »
    By the way, I'm still waiting for you to provide your raw data for this.

    I have asked the graph creator to provide me with the source of the data but I believe if you trawl hard the Eirgrid site you will find all the data you need


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    #218
    visual
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,268 ✭✭✭visual


    djpbarry wrote: »
    Let’s not start bringing conspiracy theories to the discussion.

    Go play on eirgrid and semo web site with figures.

    This is the problem with this hole area self appointed experts who play science in a wind tunnel then go quite when the optistic data models fail.

    Was RTE researchers wrong has wind energy been placed hold in germany. Has Co2 increassed as claimed.

    Without Carbon tax and premium paid for wind power its not viable. No country so far has had the expected energy from their wind farms yet these are going up here without question.

    The devil is in the detail but sometimes too much detail only blinds everyone with science.
    X amount to build y amount to maintaining z amount of overhead vs power actually produced.

    If germany end user pays 229 euro extra to have wind energy and Co2 is increasing not dropping then its a failure


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    #219
    djpbarry
    Registered Users Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    fclauson wrote: »
    and our old mate - backup costs x 2
    Ah yes, the double back-up that doesn’t exist?
    fclauson wrote: »
    but we do not need masses of HV cables from widely distributed wind farms if we had power generation in a small number of specific places - so it is a costs purely associated with wind
    No, it isn’t. The idea of distributed generation is not specifically to cater for wind power, but for a variety of small-scale power sources.
    fclauson wrote: »
    You are still missing the point
    No, I’m not. You keep claiming that wind requires two backups, but you have produced nothing to support this statement. I have challenged you on the basis that if this backup nonsense were true, Ireland would have far, far more installed generation capacity than it actually does and so far, you’ve come back with nothing – you just keep repeating the same claim.
    fclauson wrote: »
    So for every bit of wind you install you need 2 x backup - have I failed to make this clear ..
    Yes, you have failed spectacularly, because there is no evidence to support your claim.


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    #220
    djpbarry
    Registered Users Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    visual wrote: »
    No country so far has had the expected energy from their wind farms...
    Ireland has?


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    #221
    djpbarry
    Registered Users Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    On the subject of distributed generation:

    http://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/the-smarter-grid/the-rise-of-the-personal-power-plant


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    #222
    Fabo
    Registered Users Posts: 225 ✭✭Fabo


    djpbarry wrote: »
    You know the cost of the wind turbine up front. You’ve got a pretty good idea what the maintenance cost will be and you can forecast over the long term how much power will be generated.

    So, if we say a cost of about £1 million per MW for installation, add say 20% for maintenance over a lifetime of 20 years and assume a capacity factor of say 30%, that works out at less than £0.02 per kWh.

    funnily enough, I have just worked out capacity factor for local windfarm in the 12 mths to April 2014. 8.5% I got. Yes, 8.5%. I thought it would have at least made 15 but no, its worth repeating again - 8 . 5 % capacity factor.
    That’s pretty damn cheap.

    I would dispute that its "cheap" but in any case value is the only thing that matters. And Ireland never worked out the value from windfarms. In fact they chose to leave that section blank in their NREAP. Ireland’s NREAP went from Section 5.2 to Section 5.4. There was zero information in relation to impacts, such as costs and benefits.
    Name a form of power generation that does not require “back-up”?

    the RATIONALE for wind farms is that it de-carbonizes power generation, not the opposite !!!
    Ever? Really? Demand will never exceed 2006 levels?

    you might not be aware of the Celtic Tiger and the carbon intensive industries (eg cement and concrete) that sprung up around the country that have now disappeared

    I didn’t ask for one – I just asked for the source of the raw data used to generate the plot.

    Look up Eirgrid Adequacy Reports and Generation Capacity Statements for the past few years. See Appendix 2 for dispatchable generation chart.


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    #223
    Old diesel
    Registered Users Posts: 5,790 ✭✭✭Old diesel


    Fabo wrote: »
    funnily enough, I have just worked out capacity factor for local windfarm in the 12 mths to April 2014. 8.5% I got. Yes, 8.5%. I thought it would have at least made 15 but no, its worth repeating again - 8 . 5 % capacity factor.



    I would dispute that its "cheap" but in any case value is the only thing that matters. And Ireland never worked out the value from windfarms. In fact they chose to leave that section blank in their NREAP. Ireland’s NREAP went from Section 5.2 to Section 5.4. There was zero information in relation to impacts, such as costs and benefits.



    the RATIONALE for wind farms is that it de-carbonizes power generation, not the opposite !!!



    you might not be aware of the Celtic Tiger and the carbon intensive industries (eg cement and concrete) that sprung up around the country that have now disappeared




    Look up Eirgrid Adequacy Reports and Generation Capacity Statements for the past few years. See Appendix 2 for dispatchable generation chart.

    How were you able to work out the capacity factor for your local wind farm????

    8.5 percent is definitely woeful though


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    #224
    fclauson
    Registered Users Posts: 1,691 ✭✭✭fclauson


    Old diesel wrote: »
    How were you able to work out the capacity factor for your local wind farm????

    8.5 percent is definitely woeful though

    Easy - go to www.sem-o-com - and go to market data/dynamic reports

    you can then run a report for your particular unit

    unit details can be found at http://www.sem-o.com/Publications/General/List%20of%20Registered%20Units.pdf


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    #225
    fclauson
    Registered Users Posts: 1,691 ✭✭✭fclauson


    Fabo wrote: »
    Look up Eirgrid Adequacy Reports and Generation Capacity Statements for the past few years. See Appendix 2 for dispatchable generation chart.

    A good summary is available http://www.windawareireland.com/economic-issues/irelands-back-generation-capacity-analysis/


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    #226
    djpbarry
    Registered Users Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    Fabo wrote: »
    funnily enough, I have just worked out capacity factor for local windfarm in the 12 mths to April 2014. 8.5% I got. Yes, 8.5%. I thought it would have at least made 15 but no, its worth repeating again - 8 . 5 % capacity factor.
    Meanwhile, on a national level, the capacity factor comes in at more or less the value we would expect – around about 30%.
    Fabo wrote: »
    the RATIONALE for wind farms is that it de-carbonizes power generation, not the opposite !!!
    You’re saying that Ireland’s power generation is becoming more carbon intensive? Because any figures I’ve seen suggest otherwise.


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    #227
    mikep
    Registered Users Posts: 925 ✭✭✭mikep


    I have been keeping an eye on this and am somewhat intrigued by it all...

    I think eveidence that wind energy works can be found by the fact that big pharma see it as a part of their plans for the future.
    From what I know of these companies they tend to avoid big investments that won't give any payback..

    http://www.thejournal.ie/wind-turbines-cork-lower-harbour-1492510-May2014/

    To the OP, is it just wind energy you are against? As we can see you have another thread going about the "health effects" of wind turbines.


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    #228
    fclauson
    Registered Users Posts: 1,691 ✭✭✭fclauson


    djpbarry wrote: »
    You’re saying that Ireland’s power generation is becoming more carbon intensive? Because any figures I’ve seen suggest otherwise.
    I think the nub of this part of the discussion is why is more carbon plant being built in parallel to wind when it should be just add on wind.


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    #229
    fclauson
    Registered Users Posts: 1,691 ✭✭✭fclauson


    mikep wrote: »
    I have been keeping an eye on this and am somewhat intrigued by it all...

    I think eveidence that wind energy works can be found by the fact that big pharma see it as a part of their plans for the future.
    From what I know of these companies they tend to avoid big investments that won't give any payback..

    http://www.thejournal.ie/wind-turbines-cork-lower-harbour-1492510-May2014/

    To the OP, is it just wind energy you are against? As we can see you have another thread going about the "health effects" of wind turbines.

    To answer the for/against question - I am neither
    I want to know does it make sense
    is it safe
    do we know the implications
    why are their so many hyper-pro people and hyper-anti people
    what is the effect of being subject to a profile of continuous noise/done

    I wanted to cause a discussion on this in open forum - its a shame that just few people have joined in (so welcome and please add you comment)

    To answer why a phama might put a turbine on its site has to be looked at in the context not only of the energy produced but also all the other financial benefits which they may be able to avail of by doing so. Obviously as I do with my PV I use as much of the power locally, I program my systems (heating, h/w, dishwashers etc ) to use as much as possible when its available and sell back what I do not need - but this model - and I appreciate this - would cause problems if everyone in the country does it.


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    #230
    Macha
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 6,376 Mod ✭✭✭✭Macha


    fclauson wrote: »
    I think the nub of this part of the discussion is why is more carbon plant being built in parallel to wind when it should be just add on wind.
    Which thermal plants are being built in Ireland right now? Genuine question because we have an over capacity of gas and I don't know of any coal or peat plants being built.


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    #231
    mikep
    Registered Users Posts: 925 ✭✭✭mikep


    I am in the pro camp, but not hyper pro. I think it needs to be used in conjunction with other renewables. Ireland has an abundant wind resource but as pointed out repeatedly here the wind does not provide a constant supply so I think we need to increase the use of boimass, pumped storage hydro, and waste to energy (this could make me a pariah) It seems our hydro resource from rivers is pretty much done, excluding micro generation.
    On the health effects I have done some research into subthreshold noise and it seems that machinery contributes way more to this than wind turbines. I don't know much about the shadow flicker issue..

    Finally OP, is all your electricity supplied by PV?


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    #232
    fclauson
    Registered Users Posts: 1,691 ✭✭✭fclauson


    Macha wrote: »
    Which thermal plants are being built in Ireland right now? Genuine question because we have an over capacity of gas and I don't know of any coal or peat plants being built.

    See http://www.eirgrid.com/media/Generation%20Capacity%20Statement%202014.pdf

    I may have used the term thermal which probably should have read fossil to cover net new gas


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    #233
    fclauson
    Registered Users Posts: 1,691 ✭✭✭fclauson


    mikep wrote: »

    Finally OP, is all your electricity supplied by PV?

    Unfortunately not - I produce 4000kwh/annum - and this matches my heating/hw demand (which is provided by a Heat Pump where I get around 3Kw out for every 1Kw approx.)

    I use the grid as an interseasonal store (and hence my comments that if every one did this they I would be adding to the problem but when I built the house I was not into understanding grid load balancing etc). I push around 1800Kwh onto the grid in the summer to suck it back in the winter. I get paid 9c for the units sold and around 9.8c to buy them back (night time rate). My payback will be around 8 to 10 years to cover the costs of the install assuming my original model holds true.


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    #234
    fclauson
    Registered Users Posts: 1,691 ✭✭✭fclauson


    djpbarry wrote: »
    Meanwhile, on a national level, the capacity factor comes in at more or less the value we would expect – around about 30%.

    I have not done extensive work on this just yet but looking at numbers from SEM-O inland wind farms seem to underperform and be supported by costal farms which perform much better. My research has only really looked at Wexford and has not covered whole year samples as yet but there is a trend which allows me to take this view. The very rough split is that inland farms around the 20% mark for the periods I have looked at.

    With the additional of more inland farms it will be interesting to see if the 30% sticks


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    #235
    djpbarry
    Registered Users Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    fclauson wrote: »
    I think the nub of this part of the discussion is why is more carbon plant being built in parallel to wind when it should be just add on wind.
    You keep making these sort of statements, when there is absolutely no evidence to support them. The Generation Capacity Statement you linked to actually shows a projected decrease of about 200MW in installed thermal capacity in Ireland over the next ten years.


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    #236
    fclauson
    Registered Users Posts: 1,691 ✭✭✭fclauson


    djpbarry wrote: »
    You keep making these sort of statements, when there is absolutely no evidence to support them. The Generation Capacity Statement you linked to actually shows a projected decrease of about 200MW in installed thermal capacity in Ireland over the next ten years.

    Check out http://www.eirgrid.com/media/TSOGate3StatusReportaspublished19thDecember2013.pdf

    You will see there is 710 of OCGT and 215 of CCGT either on its way or already connected

    the above link seems to not work - try http://www.eirgrid.com/gate3/


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    #237
    djpbarry
    Registered Users Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    fclauson wrote: »
    Check out http://www.eirgrid.com/media/TSOGate3StatusReportaspublished19thDecember2013.pdf

    You will see there is 710 of OCGT and 215 of CCGT either on its way or already connected
    The Generation Capacity Statement shows there is 591MW to be added over the next ten years, but 804MW is to be removed (decommissioned).


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    #238
    Fabo
    Registered Users Posts: 225 ✭✭Fabo


    djpbarry wrote: »
    Meanwhile, on a national level, the capacity factor comes in at more or less the value we would expect – around about 30%.

    yea the trick pulled there is that some wind farms reach 30% peak for a low number of hrs each year.

    You’re saying that Ireland’s power generation is becoming more carbon intensive? Because any figures I’ve seen suggest otherwise.

    no thanks to wind. the opening of gas plants is an isolated issue to that under discussion


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    #239
    fclauson
    Registered Users Posts: 1,691 ✭✭✭fclauson


    djpbarry wrote: »
    The Generation Capacity Statement shows there is 591MW to be added over the next ten years, but 804MW is to be removed (decommissioned).

    Not sure where you get the 591 from page 27 shows 1232 being added

    The 804 being removed is partly Tarbert which was due for decommissioning in 2012 (see the 2011 report where it drops to 0) is now only going to go on belching C02 upto 2021


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    #240
    Fabo
    Registered Users Posts: 225 ✭✭Fabo


    djpbarry wrote: »
    The Generation Capacity Statement shows there is 591MW to be added over the next ten years, but 804MW is to be removed (decommissioned).

    There are also connection agreements in place for a 445MW CCGT plant in Ballakelly along with 3 smaller OCGTs not included in this. See Table 3-2 of Eirgrid’s 2014 Capacity Statement.


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    #241
    djpbarry
    Registered Users Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    fclauson wrote: »
    Not sure where you get the 591 from page 27 shows 1232 being added
    Table 3.1. It states in the report that it is possible that not every plant in Table 3.2 will be commissioned:
    Of the plant in Table 3-2, only Great Island CCGT has a firm commissioning date in the next year. EirGrid has taken the prudent view that not all of the other planned plant in the table above will be commissioned.

    But anyway, regardless of which figure we use, we’re still a very long way off the level of new capacity that you’re claiming is required to “back up” wind.


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