Range Resources (RRL.L) tipped by RHPS

neil.p.b wrote: »

I will post a chart later tonight if i get a chance explaining it all if you are interested.

Always interested, a man can never know too much but im green around the gills on charts.

Neil,

Excellent analysis, many thanks..

Hi Neil,

Many thanks for your earlier charts, I haven't checked in here in a while. Encouraged to see you dip your toes back in here again so im guessing the stars are aligning on a charting basis. Interested to know if you have an exit point in mind and how flexible you are on it? are you happy to hit a set target or are you flexible enough to see how the dices roll in the short/med term?

My previous positive sentiment was purely based on upcoming news but you can never tell with that bollox PL, in saying that there are a number of things stirring so even if one or two things get stalled or don't come good there is enough in reserve to drive the sp forward.

Texas - line drawn under, deal within expected guidelines
New fiscals - agreed with significant upside on the net return per barrel (circa $50) this has a significant & immediate impact to cashflows
Guatemala - came from left field in Jan and within weeks we get an announcement of 300-400 bopd (sounds too good to be true and id love to know how this was secured or if it was an absolute punt) this bopd is from HALF the identified oip/zones and they are testing the other zones so this bopd could easily double, news very close I would have taught. Also second well is due to spud as son as this first well is finished flow testing so we could get news on both fronts in the same RNS. Nett back again is similar to T&T at circa $50 per barrel. On a per well basis this could kick ass in comparison to T&T so don't be surprised if PL goes spending his pot of money in this direction for a larger stake.
T&T - Currently where all the action is happening (I hope). Excellent news recently that QUN135 found a new reservoir after being deepened, testing currently underway as of 4 weeks ago so we should be expecting news imminently. As this is a new reservoir it has the capacity to be at a substantially higher bopd than neighbouring wells, also interested see if they decide to deepen any further wells in same locality. There is a number of other wells which were work in progress for a number of weeks/months which are due an update (hopefully flowing at this stage. The other strategic marker for Trinidad is MD248 which is our first drill targeting the lower cruse formation which has seen bopd rates of 200-300bopd so this is a v important drill and has been ongoing for some time, possibly news soon? in conjunction with the completion of MD248 we were due to spud a well targeting the Herrera formation, once again virgin territory for Range so another strategic well. I am sure we will also have a revised CPR for T&T with an increase in bookable reserves once our "new" reservoir has been analysed. Finally on T&T there are new licences up for grabs and possibly further concessions on the fiscals.
Georgia - further update on progress although we are not expecting our first spud until Q3.

Further out we still have Colombia & Puntland in the pot and both of these I believe have been completely discounted from current valuations (and rightly so), there is also the waterflood programme for T&T but I cant see that happening this year. Still loads of short term news and quite a lot of it is strategically VERY important. The one thing which I firmly believe has been a weight on the sp in recent months has been the uncertainty on cashflow, we have had a double kicker in this regard with the debt financing AND the texas funds and this has certainly helped set a new floor. Loads in the short term to kick this on albeit without the glitz and glam of a Puntland type play although I would love nothing more than to see us incease our stake in Guatemala but im slightly concerned that PL is burning a hole in his pocket right now lol

neil.p.b wrote: »

What are you making of the madhouse over you know where? Paranoia is getting crazy, i just wanna start a thread telling them all to stop being so stupid! They literally won't entertain any sort of negative slant, PI blinkers, heads in sand, etc...

I can't even read the nonsense any more. It's something of a devoted cult at this stage. If we get 100bopd on EB1 I 'd say we're quite lucky. I have a feeling it will be non commercial, or not quite commercial enough! I'm sure if it's bad, the possibility to return to it with data from EB2 will be mentioned. Brian never misses a trick.

Yes I tend to agree, I seen your little spat and was going to post but to be honest I knew it would be futile so didn't waste my energy, when it gets like that its easier sometimes to just step away fro the keyboard. Argue with a fool and he will bring you down to his level and beat you every time! I have figured that when there is something worth discussing it can be an excellent board but when there a lull (like now) it becomes more like a playground with an awful lot of immature people.

Xertpo I genuinely would not be surprised if this went one way or the other but the signs do look good (if you can trust them). What I am comfortable with is that news is held VERY tightly so it really is hard to read between the lines and you can reassure yourself that all the background noise and assumptions are simply that, draw your own conclusions!

Neil looks like your re-acquaintance with rrl is off to a bad start, for now anyway

Should have been more patient with my entry first time around but back in again today at 4.5, no stop atm. 4.4 was bought back up quickly

Some good folk over there, just ruined by a minority some of the time. Few hundred bopd and all will be forgotten. If not, well, it'll be an interesting board!

Grecco wrote: »

Production figures are out and barrels produced is lower than 1000 plus this company is doing a reversal in Trinidad , Production in some of the older wells is falling off rapid.
The SP is heading south and will go below 4p.
Just my opinion of course


RNS out today HERE
Doesn't make for inspiring reading, basically this is a bucket of $h!#

Absolutely nothing new in todays RNS, looks like the markets are trying to drive this lower based on what is HISTORICAL information. You quite rightly say that production is tailing off on some of the earlier wells but there is quite a number of wells due to come on stream (and should be producing right now) which will get this to approx. 1,500 nothing to scream from the rooftops but we are moving forward on these shallow wells but as I mentioned previously it was in the company's interest not to report this production in 2012 due to earnout payments & revised fiscals but you could argue that operationally they may not have been ready anyway before year end.

If you look at my post this week you will see T&T right now is all about QUN135 and MD248, one of which has found a new reservoir and both are aiming for targets in the hundreds of bopd, IF these are successful expect the 6 rigs in operation to shift focus away from the shallows to this potentially more lucrative area, if they DONT we still have the shallows to keep plugging away so there is limited downside and plenty of upside on where we are right now and don't forget this is just on T&T.

a bucket of sh^% well that's what the markets want you to believe with the sp based on OLD NEWS, the truth may be somewhere in the detail.

Interested to know why you think will fall below 4p, what exactly is your reasoning for this. Iv detailed my views and the reasoning behind them, whats yours other than a throw away remark?

I understand what you are saying but this is where we differ, you are basing your assumptions primarily on technical analysis whereas I am basing my analysis on core fundamentals some of which could dramatically change the outlook of the company. Investing Vs Trading!

Don't forget this stock was massively overvalued 12 months ago due to Puntland, this is the primary reason why the stock has been on a downward trend for the last 12 months and the outlook hasn't been as positive in a long time so I think you are wrong.

Down 15%, this is going to go down to 2.5p

Cute Hoor wrote: »

Aussie market appears to be underwhelmed overnight by the merger and inevitable 'share issue' news - the 'new shares' bit always seems to come at the end of the news feed.

Yep that's the PL way!!!! If there is some good to come from this deal (and I need to spend time to see whats in the detail) hopefully its PL taking a back seat.

As for the 'new shares' they were struck at a rate od 4.00c so its cash in the bank, not dilution in the truest sense as there is cash on the books from the issue, the only real dilution is the 6% fee.