Dublin to Cork Express Coach

jacko1 wrote: »

Passneger numbers are not declining - was on the 07.30 Cork - Dublin this morning - approx 280 passengers on board - we arrived at 10.01

Irish Rail themselves say they are, they published a consultants report into intercity rail just last month and it found that passenger numbers are down 20% over the last 3 years.

Ixflyer wrote:

I think I'd prefer to wait and see what happens rather than making very swift judgements.

Fair enough, but I think the writing is on the wall.

If you read the report that Irish Rail themselves published only a few weeks ago, the report clearly states that intercity rail would only remain competitive if the NTA didn't continue to license direct non stop bus services.

The report found that where such licenses where issued, it had a major negative impact on passenger numbers. Again this report found that the currently passenger trips look like so:

Cork - Dublin
Car 50%, Rail 40%, Bus 10%

Galway - Dublin
Car 50%, Rail 25%, Bus 25%

Now if Cork to Dublin (and also Limerick, Waterford, etc.) go the same way, then that would mean Irish Rail would lose 40% of their passengers on these routes, that is on top of recently losing 20% of their passengers!

Let me repeat that, if the Galway pattern is followed then Irish Rail could lose 40% of it's passengers!

Now I admit, Cork to Dublin is slightly different then Galway, Galway buses are faster then the train, where the Cork buses will be slightly slower then the train, so that will be an advantage to IR, but on the flipside, the cost difference between buses and trains is much greater on the Cork route (about 4 times) then the Galway route (about 2 times).

Either way I expect a 30% drop in passengers at Irish Rail and yes, that would be devastating.

Sure it won't happen over night and yes, people will continue to use the trains, but losing 30 to 40% of your customer will have a massive effect on your company, it will mean you either have to:

- Look for massive increase in subsidy (not going to happen in the current economic climate)
- Big increase in ticket prices (which will just widen the price gap with bus and drive more customers away)
- Our significant cost cutting.

Unfortunately I think the last is the most likely outcome. It really is the only feasible outcome.

BTW I'm not just attacking Irish Rail, this will also have a major impact on BE and Aircoach.

As has been pointed out, they currently survive on a combination of both direct and intermediate passengers. Now I don't know what the percentage mix is, but I would be very surprised if it isn't at least 50% direct, if not more. So this new service will take the majority of these passengers. Sure some people will still take what they are use to for whatever reason, but logically the majority will switch to a guaranteed scheduled service, specially if it has toilets onboard.

So it will also have a major impact on them both. However BE at least should be better prepared to weather this storm then Irish Rail, while the Cork route is important for them, it isn't as important as it is for IR. BE network is far more spread through the whole country. Also BE can respond to changes in passenger demand more quickly, they can reduce scheduled services more easily due to their heavy use of contractors.

It will be interesting to see if BE/Aircoach respond by introducing their own direct service (and thus perhaps reduce their stopping service frequency) as Citylink did in Galway when GoBus started their direct service to Galway.

Of course that would put even more pressure on Irish Rail.

One thing that I do think that all these coach services need, is dedicated bus stations in both Dublin and Cork. It is my opinion that the NTA should take ownership of the rail stations and develop them as integrated mutli operator, multi transport hubs.

dub_commuter wrote: »

No - I was replying to xOxSinéadxOx who suggested there was toilets.

Aircoach normally don't have toilets (and wouldn't make sense on their shorter Dublin routes), but it is possible they have one or two buses with toilets or perhaps they contracted in an extra bus from another company to cover breakdown etc.

Or perhaps they are preparing for competition with this new service.

devnull wrote: »

I'm not so convinced, if the Galway is 25% each between Bus and Train, I can only see the train percentage being higher on the Cork route than the Galway, because of the fact the train will still be quicker. Business people will still use the train for obvious reasons. Of course Irish Rail will be hit, but not to the degree on which they were hit by Galway.

I admitted that in my post, but I also pointed out that the difference in ticket prices is much greater on the Cork route, then the Galway route, so that will also have an effect.

The price of the train to Galway is only 2 times higher then the bus, but to Cork the train is 3 to 4 times higher. That will certainly also have an effect.

I was talking to a friend of mine last night about this new service, a Corkonian living in the Dublin who also often takes the train. He would jump at such a new service, he has found the recent price increases hard and goes to Cork less often as a result.

However he did make an interesting point, he felt that if the trains was guaranteed max 2h30mins at all times and €60 max (walk up return fair), that he might take it instead of this new bus service.

He felt 2h47m or even 2h30m for €80 versus 3h for €20/25 just wasn't competitive. He wouldn't mind sitting in a bus for an extra 30 minutes to save €60.

Just something interesting to think about.