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Range Resources (RRL.L) tipped by RHPS

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    #362
    Grecco
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,007 ✭✭✭Grecco


    I think its all rumours and pumping at the moment. I took some profit on 50% of my holdings on Thursday from RMP @ 24.12p
    The reason I think its all rumours is Horn Petroleum (which I also hold) hasnt moved one iota :rolleyes:
    Horn is the main operator in Puntland with 60% stake, but its not very liquid as there's only 75million shares in issue.
    Just wondering now will Horn rise as much as RMP on and oil find in Puntland ??


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    #363
    alanceltic
    Registered Users Posts: 790 ✭✭✭alanceltic


    As you alluded to Horn is very illiquid but even more than you would think. Half of the shares are held by Africa Oil and I wouldnt be 1 bit surprised if the Ludin family themselves have a sizeable chunk. I recall looking at AOI and there are a huge amount of warrants on the backburner waiting to be triggered (if things go well) and these are usually issued to institutional investors on initial share placement so I would figure the other half of the shares are held by a combination of the Ludin family & institutional investors....

    As a result of this I wouldnt pay too much notice to Horns SP to be honest!


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    #364
    Grecco
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,007 ✭✭✭Grecco


    alanceltic wrote: »
    As you alluded to Horn is very illiquid but even more than you would think. Half of the shares are held by Africa Oil and I wouldnt be 1 bit surprised if the Ludin family themselves have a sizeable chunk. I recall looking at AOI and there are a huge amount of warrants on the backburner waiting to be triggered (if things go well) and these are usually issued to institutional investors on initial share placement so I would figure the other half of the shares are held by a combination of the Ludin family & institutional investors....

    As a result of this I wouldnt pay too much notice to Horns SP to be honest!

    I take it you mean the Lundin family
    So what does this mean for my holdings of Horn?? Like I don't want to be holding them if there not gonna rise on an Oil find (then again if the lundin family are happy to invest then maybe I should be happy also ??)


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    #365
    alanceltic
    Registered Users Posts: 790 ✭✭✭alanceltic


    Sorry yeah meant to say Lundin. Well for a start the total fully diluted share cap is 125m shares if the warrants are exercised (rate is €1.50). So if they do strike then you can assume this will happen.

    I wouldnt be worried 1 bit about your investment in Horn "IF" there is a strike in puntland. Put it like this I would rather be invested in Horn than Range if they get lucky on the 2 drill programme.

    The company has very much been positioned for disposal if they can find oil with a preferential weighting to the original investors (which is fair enough), just dont expect the share to react as quickly or to be as volatile as RRL or RMP.


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    #366
    neil.p.b
    Registered Users Posts: 926 ✭✭✭neil.p.b


    alanceltic wrote: »
    As you alluded to Horn is very illiquid but even more than you would think. Half of the shares are held by Africa Oil and I wouldnt be 1 bit surprised if the Ludin family themselves have a sizeable chunk. I recall looking at AOI and there are a huge amount of warrants on the backburner waiting to be triggered (if things go well) and these are usually issued to institutional investors on initial share placement so I would figure the other half of the shares are held by a combination of the Ludin family & institutional investors.

    As a result of this I wouldnt pay too much notice to Horns SP to be honest!

    AOI 51% and the rest were taken up by sprott and one other insti, they may have sold a few but i'd imagine they are tightly held, there is barely any in free float and the reason i never bought. I think the warrants you refer to are horns - 45mil or something like that.
    Grecco wrote: »
    I take it you mean the Lundin family
    So what does this mean for my holdings of Horn?? Like I don't want to be holding them if there not gonna rise on an Oil find (then again if the lundin family are happy to invest then maybe I should be happy also ??)

    Of course it will rise. But its more of a waiting game than say RMP (who it is trading at a discount to at present). When HRN starts to move it will do so sharply, i'd imagine a major gap up one day as apposed to a gradual rise.


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    #367
    Thargor
    Registered Users Posts: 17,867 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    Anybody buying any MES? Im debating whether or not to, I wouldn't mind having a few in case they really take off when we hear about offshore, heavy volume today.


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    #368
    Grecco
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,007 ✭✭✭Grecco


    After doing another bit of research into Horn petroleum the happier I am with my investment.
    Anyway I came across this link which gives a good break down of the risks and exposures of all 4 companies involved in Puntland --
    African Oil corp, Range, Red Emperor and Horn Petroleum.
    What really struck me was the impressive record the Lundins have in Oil companies
    Heres an extract from the report

    PIC3-Management-History.png


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    #369
    neil.p.b
    Registered Users Posts: 926 ✭✭✭neil.p.b


    Exactly. The Lundins don't mess around, they know what they are doing and wouldn't have gone to all this trouble in Puntland without being highly confident of finding a substantial amount of oil. With Keith Hill and Peter Landau running the show on the ground i couldn't feel more comfortable.


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    #370
    Thargor
    Registered Users Posts: 17,867 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    Well it seems we have a strike in Puntland then, nobody got any thoughts? :D


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    #371
    neil.p.b
    Registered Users Posts: 926 ✭✭✭neil.p.b


    Not saying we haven't, but RMP probably wouldn't be at 22p if we had imo


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    #372
    cooperguy
    Registered Users Posts: 2,650 ✭✭✭cooperguy


    Thargor wrote: »
    Well it seems we have a strike in Puntland then, nobody got any thoughts? :D
    Haha, where did that come from?!


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    #373
    Thargor
    Registered Users Posts: 17,867 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    Have you not been reading the boards today? I know you're not supposed to pay attention to BBs but when every single one of the ones who've demonstrated inside knowledge in the past (accurate and inaccurate) come out and basically say we have oil something has to be up. GiftedGenie confirmed it on his board aswell. I know what people are going to say about rumors like this so don't bother typing it but in my unprofessional opinion this is it this time. JR predicts we'll be testing historical highs by this time next week so lets see what happens. Also listing on the new exchange and updates from all our prospects well overdue.


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    #374
    cooperguy
    Registered Users Posts: 2,650 ✭✭✭cooperguy


    Thargor wrote: »
    Have you not been reading the boards today? I know you're not supposed to pay attention to BBs but when every single one of the ones who've demonstrated inside knowledge in the past (accurate and inaccurate) come out and basically say we have oil something has to be up. GiftedGenie confirmed it on his board aswell. I know what people are going to say about rumors like this so don't bother typing it but in my unprofessional opinion this is it this time. JR predicts we'll be testing historical highs by this time next week so lets see what happens. Also listing on the new exchange and updates from all our prospects well overdue.
    Iv been playing with the idea of topping up, im guessing I have very little time to do it if I decide to! Iv the weekend to decide I suppose!


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    #375
    Thargor
    Registered Users Posts: 17,867 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    Then again Horn were down 1.6% so who knows, we could be waiting another month drifting sideways or down, just have to hold and see.


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    #376
    neil.p.b
    Registered Users Posts: 926 ✭✭✭neil.p.b


    Thargor wrote: »
    Then again Horn were down 1.6% so who knows, we could be waiting another month drifting sideways or down, just have to hold and see.

    I'm more interested in price and volume of AOI,RRL and RMP for signs. Horn is too illiquid to be used as a good measure, bulk of stock isn't in free float and the holding parties won't be selling for a 20% gain - in till the end.

    Regardless of the rumour and Puntland there is other news due and the chart is looking bullish, green day on Monday and we should have a breakout. Fingers crossed though, its been a long and tough wait.


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    #377
    Grecco
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,007 ✭✭✭Grecco


    More rumours again, Looks like the fat lady is about to sing :D


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    #378
    cooperguy
    Registered Users Posts: 2,650 ✭✭✭cooperguy


    Ya these are pretty strong rumours. JR has basically put his reputation on the line at this point. He couldnt be stating any more clearly that there has been a strike and these are "Testing Times". He is also predicting the price will reach our previous highs by next weekend.

    I suppose its time to sit back and see! Exciting times if its true


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    #379
    Seifer
    Registered Users Posts: 2,265 ✭✭✭Seifer


    cooperguy wrote: »
    Ya these are pretty strong rumours. JR has basically put his reputation on the line at this point. He couldnt be stating any more clearly that there has been a strike and these are "Testing Times". He is also predicting the price will reach our previous highs by next weekend.

    I suppose its time to sit back and see! Exciting times if its true

    Not many signs of oil this morning...


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    #380
    Thargor
    Registered Users Posts: 17,867 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    Strong feeling that somethings brewing you have to admit though.


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    #381
    cooperguy
    Registered Users Posts: 2,650 ✭✭✭cooperguy


    Thargor wrote: »
    Strong feeling that somethings brewing you have to admit though.
    Hopefully so! I reckon your prediction on RUM for share price by the end of the week will probably correct though!

    I did decide to go ahead and top up though (which Iv been thinking about for a while)


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    #382
    alanceltic
    Registered Users Posts: 790 ✭✭✭alanceltic


    Seifer wrote: »
    Not many signs of oil this morning...

    There was never gonna be an RNS this morning due to the US markets on a bank holiday. Dont forget that we are due to officially hear news that the shares will now be listed on the US market with an allocation of approx one third of the total shares being made available to the yanks, it would have been counter productive to issue a positive RNS before these shares are officially available for trading. Anytime from tomorrow to end of week is looking like a certainty for news.

    But the big question is what will be in the RNS. My guess is it will be updates on Texas & Trinidad and possibly spudding of Georgia, I doubt we will hear anything on Puntland at this stage as it has to come via Horn who are the operators. Exciting few weeks ahead and we are just on the cusp of finding out exactly how good but the omens look red hot


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    #383
    Thargor
    Registered Users Posts: 17,867 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    Motoring along this morning, lets see what the US open brings.


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    #384
    Thargor
    Registered Users Posts: 17,867 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    Nice 8% up, no sign of the US action yet either, RMP down though.


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    #385
    Seifer
    Registered Users Posts: 2,265 ✭✭✭Seifer


    Update out: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120223/pdf/424k5v3nhzhbcj.pdf

    So basically JR is full of ****e because he said in no uncertain terms that oil had been struck. Can't decide if he's a moron or someone clever enough to be making money out of it though.


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    #386
    neil.p.b
    Registered Users Posts: 926 ✭✭✭neil.p.b


    Seifer wrote: »
    Update out: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120223/pdf/424k5v3nhzhbcj.pdf

    So basically JR is full of ****e because he said in no uncertain terms that oil had been struck. Can't decide if he's a moron or someone clever enough to be making money out of it though.

    Yes he did - but why do you think we haven't? The RNS was just a standard progress update and completely neutral. Hill has already said results won't be released until they have finished testing. JR is obviously in the know and i think he is genuine in his posts and means well but i still wouldn't take anything from them, he is easily excited and a lot of his posts are just his own thoughts on what he knows (like highs to be tested this week), just his own opinion and should not be taken as fact.

    Great news on Texas - should shift bulk of P3 to P1. Pity about Georgia but its not really a big deal. Duchess DD is usually followed with a rise. ASX looking strong today.


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    #387
    Thargor
    Registered Users Posts: 17,867 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    Yeah that RNS is neutral leaning towards him being right rather than wrong, definitely not proof he was bullsh1ting. Looks like we still have weeks and months of waiting ahead of us as always though.


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    #388
    Seifer
    Registered Users Posts: 2,265 ✭✭✭Seifer


    Thargor wrote: »
    Yeah that RNS is neutral leaning towards him being right rather than wrong, definitely not proof he was bullsh1ting. Looks like we still have weeks and months of waiting ahead of us as always though.

    How exactly? He said something was going to happen and nothing did? People topped up on the ramp up rumours and others sliced their profits before the non-news was confirmed.


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    #389
    Thargor
    Registered Users Posts: 17,867 ✭✭✭✭Thargor


    Is that the last RNS the company is ever going to release? You just have to hold and wait, deadlines slip every single time practically.


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    #390
    Seifer
    Registered Users Posts: 2,265 ✭✭✭Seifer


    Thargor wrote: »
    Is that the last RNS the company is ever going to release? You just have to hold and wait, deadlines slip every single time practically.

    I think you're confusing what I'm highlighting with what the company is actually doing. All I'm saying is that no one on RUM knows anything more than any standard punter.


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    #391
    alanceltic
    Registered Users Posts: 790 ✭✭✭alanceltic


    neil.p.b wrote: »
    Yes he did - but why do you think we haven't? The RNS was just a standard progress update and completely neutral. Hill has already said results won't be released until they have finished testing. JR is obviously in the know and i think he is genuine in his posts and means well but i still wouldn't take anything from them, he is easily excited and a lot of his posts are just his own thoughts on what he knows (like highs to be tested this week), just his own opinion and should not be taken as fact.

    Great news on Texas - should shift bulk of P3 to P1. Pity about Georgia but its not really a big deal. Duchess DD is usually followed with a rise. ASX looking strong today.

    I agree completely on your JR comments, everything with a pinch of salt, he NEVER said anything about oil in Puntland, he did however mention Texas about 2 weeks ago.

    It is disappointing that the market has reacted so negatively to the RNS but there was a lot of expectation building up over the last week or so and all of these gains have been lost so we are not really any worse off.

    Texas... If you ask me they should never have given an update on texas without having reserve numbers because the markets will ignore it completely. I am very positive on the texas situation but we will have to wait a few more weeks until it is fully quantified and only then will we see this reflected in the sp but it is definately worth a few pence by the look of things.

    Georgia.... again no surprise that this has been kicked to touch for a couple of weeks given the abnormal weather in eastern europe and a sensible decision.

    Trinidad... would have liked an update but it obviously wasnt ready and as said above I would rather wait until we have firm numbers to report but the constant delays here are frustrating to say the least.

    Puntland... we were only ever going to get an operational update, now people are trying to second guess if there is a subliminal message with the testing gear on route!!!! Come on, you dont spend $50million to dig a hole in the ground and not expect to find something there, the testing has to be something that was always planned given the logistics of where they are drilling. It is positive to hear that the drilling is on track without any major problems/delays and I would try and desist from listening to the constant rumours which will only increase 10 fold over he coming weeks

    Share Dilution... I know it isnt much but you really do have to wonder why the company insists on diluting so often when there is cash in the bank. Hurry up and prove up texas fully and sell it and use the cash for future projects, the thoughts of a dividend have to be off the table now and I for one would rather see these funds used to prop up current operations with no more dilution.

    All in I think people (me included) were expecting better news or rather news that could be quantified, so we see a 10% retrace but still in a good position with plenty of news brewing, we are still a few weeks of it all coming together and April/May should be very telling on a number of fronts.


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