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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

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    #1052
    MJohnston
    Registered Users Posts: 10,561 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    LaVail wrote: »
    Do we have any sort of idea as to roughly when this storm would hit? Monday morning AM or more towards Monday night?

    Add 5 hours to these AST times:

    144425_most_likely_toa_34.png


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    #1053
    LaVail
    Registered Users Posts: 1,619 ✭✭✭LaVail


    My name is URL wrote: »
    Probably gonna hit land in the AM

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?cone#contents

    Thanks! Have hospital appointment in CUH Monday morning and it's a 200 mile round trip for me. Wouldn't be back in Kerry until around 3pm Not sure as to what I should do now.


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    #1054
    uck51js9zml2yt
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,268 ✭✭✭✭uck51js9zml2yt


    enricoh wrote: »
    Will there be good surfing to be had Monday?! Dont want to take a day off monday n trek west for nothing!

    Just make sure you are identifiable when the rescue services recover your body...a beacon would also be of help to save on time!


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    #1055
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,133 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    Wow, a 15% strengthening when everyone expected a levelling or slight decrease in intensity. The sea temps in its current position are slightly below marginal so I guess Ophelia is JUST in that zone.

    Very interesting 24hrs to come.


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    #1056
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,142 ✭✭✭pad199207


    So thats a hurricane with 225KPH gusts not a million miles away from ourshores :eek::eek:


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    #1057
    chris2007
    Registered Users Posts: 313 ✭✭chris2007


    How bad is Dublin likely to get hit?


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    #1058
    star gazer
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,706 Mod ✭✭✭✭star gazer


    144425.png
    Beaufort scale of Wind force. Storm force = 48 knots plus. The probabilities will start to increase as the timeframe narrows assuming current forecasts are accurate.

    The cone is narrowing over Ireland indicating improved forecast track certainty.
    144425_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

    Ophelia's(ex) coming into view on tomorrows Atlantic Charts from Met Eireann Here


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    #1059
    Rougies
    Registered Users Posts: 2,675 ✭✭✭Rougies


    Historical position of hurricanes when they transitioned to cat3 or higher.

    01VViGo.jpg


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    #1060
    patneve2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    According to the HWRF model, the extra tropical cyclone will make landfall somewhere between Clare and Galway. Could be nasty on the E coast as well - if the wind is SE or even SSE coastal Wicklow and Dublin could get a hammering.

    hwrf-p_mslp_wind_17L_19.png

    Interesting model: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf-p&region=17L&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2017101406&fh=57&xpos=0&ypos=0


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    #1061
    Storm 10
    Registered Users Posts: 5,905 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    Still nothing on RTE radio news


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    #1062
    Cantona's Collars
    Registered Users Posts: 33,709 ✭✭✭✭Cantona's Collars


    Storm 10 wrote: »
    Still nothing on RTE radio news

    They copied and pasted the Met Eireann warning on their website and that's it,many older people listen to the radio and won't be checking online for weather warnings,surely RTE and the regional stations would have something by now.All I heard so far was a professor being interviewed by Matt Cooper yesterday before these upgrades.


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    #1063
    MJohnston
    Registered Users Posts: 10,561 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    The three latest wind speed probability charts. Tropical storm level winds almost certain for the entire country at this point:

    144425.png

    More intense 50kt winds looking more and more likely in the southwest:

    144425.png

    And starting to see hurricane force winds becoming quite likely in those areas too:

    144425.png


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    #1064
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    star gazer wrote: »
    Beaufort scale of Wind force. Storm force = 48 knots plus. The probabilities will start to increase as the timeframe narrows assuming current forecasts are accurate.
    ]

    "Storm" force on that chart refers to 34+ knots.


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    #1065
    spookwoman
    Registered Users Posts: 9,922 ✭✭✭spookwoman


    mickger844posts wrote: »
    Anyone who suggests this will just be another windy day are in for a shock. This is looking like a once in a lifetime event. Its a stronger storm than Debbie in 1961.Be ready and prepared and hopefully it wont be as bad as its looking now.

    I have a live Youtube stream set up for the event here in Waterford City. You can also check live data on my website www.waterfordweather.com


    Looking at some of the models waterford might get a hammering.


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    #1066
    MJohnston
    Registered Users Posts: 10,561 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    "Storm" force on that chart refers to 34+ knots.

    It doesnt, there are 3 charts and that was the 50kt one.


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    #1067
    star gazer
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,706 Mod ✭✭✭✭star gazer


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    "Storm" force on that chart refers to 34+ knots.
    The Chart is for 50 knot-plus wind, roughly storm force wind on the Beaufort scale.


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    #1068
    star gazer
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,706 Mod ✭✭✭✭star gazer


    Rte
    School buses operated by Bus Eireann in Cork, Kerry, Clare, Mayo and Galway will not run on Monday due to the expected arrival of the remains of Hurricane Ophelia.


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    #1069
    shmaupel
    Registered Users Posts: 186 ✭✭shmaupel


    star gazer wrote: »
    Rte

    Guess the Limerick kids are just gonna have to battle on :)


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    #1070
    sdanseo
    Registered Users Posts: 9,233 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    Let's just take a moment: there is a Category 3 Major Hurricane with sustained winds of almost 200km/h hurtling directly towards Ireland. This is unprecedented - it has never happened before.

    And RTÉ have broadcast absolutely nothing about it of any substance since yesterday.


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    #1071
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,910 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Rte playing catch up now with bus Eireann news. Quickly becoming a major story


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    #1072
    Titain
    Registered Users Posts: 12 ✭Titain


    Since this is a cat 3 now, what will it reduce to, and what are the chances of it shifting before hitting us (ireland)?


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    #1073
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 5,987 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    TBH I think that red warning should include the entire southern coast.


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    #1074
    dashoonage
    Registered Users Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭dashoonage


    shmaupel wrote: »
    Guess the Limerick kids are just gonna have to battle on :)

    ill never understand that...any time there is a warning for that side of the island limerick is always left out :P


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    #1075
    RobbingBandit
    Registered Users Posts: 18,105 ✭✭✭✭RobbingBandit


    Seen some info saying the winds would track quite badly to the east of the storm path so will exposed areas of Dublin be hit bad by the winds and what's the likely hood of thunder storms?


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    #1076
    ellieh1
    Registered Users Posts: 638 ✭✭✭ellieh1


    Can't understand why Co. Limerick isn't covered under the Red warning. I presume that could change before Monday????


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    #1077
    star gazer
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 1,706 Mod ✭✭✭✭star gazer


    https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/919224875000238080
    Plenty of cloud on the forecast track.


    wv0.gif


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    #1078
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,566 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    First of the 12z models

    ICON

    icon-0-48.png?14-12

    icon-0-51.png?14-12


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    #1079
    PLL
    Registered Users Posts: 893 ✭✭✭PLL


    9


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    #1080
    M.T. Cranium
    Registered Users Posts: 14,389 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    This cat-3 development means very little to the forecast model performance since it was expected to be a strong cat-2 anyway and the extratropical storm depictions on most models have been near theoretical peak intensity anyway (referring to positions south of Ireland).

    This is really just one more cherry in a cherry pie situation, it has no direct implication on the outcome, that is mostly going to be a matter of the dynamics of the upper low forming in the trough by late Sunday and into Monday. Ex-Ophelia will rapidly phase with this upper low, and the dynamics will determine the details but I can't see much variation from what most on here have concluded, level 3 conditions for southwest and some west coast areas, possibly extending some distance into the south-central inland counties.

    ME have their warnings out but I think it might be possible to see Limerick, Waterford, and even Carlow, Kilkenny and Tipps (south) added to red status.

    As always the boundary between levels will not neatly coincide with county boundaries anyway, if I lived in a well-exposed area of any county I would assume the risk of level 3.


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    #1081
    JanuarySnowstor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,910 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    You will all laugh at this but is this an evacuation situation for Southwestern coasts


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