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Extratropical Storm Ophelia - Technical Analysis Only - MOD NOTE post #1

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    #962
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,140 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Slight change of wording by ME

    "Hurricane Ophelia is expected to transition to a post tropical storm as it approaches our shores on Monday bringing severe winds and stormy conditions"


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    #963
    r93kaey5p2izun
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,962 ✭✭✭r93kaey5p2izun


    How many Red warnings have ME issued since that system was introduced here? And how long is that system in place?


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    #964
    jasper100
    Closed Accounts Posts: 455 ✭✭jasper100


    fraxinus1 wrote: »
    OK so Met Eireann have upped the warnings.... but I would be inclined to go with what's on the boards forum. Met E have shown themselves to be a bit slow with this one. Anyway I'm evacuating mother to the sisters house tomorrow. Her house is very exposed by the coast and she is 94.

    Great call by people on here.

    Bit confused at your met eireann bashing. They called red warning long before it was upgraded in the thread title here.

    Prior to issueing the warning met eireann have been flagging it for several days now, as has this thread.


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    #965
    touts
    Registered Users Posts: 6,459 ✭✭✭touts


    My local tesco has moved bottled water to beside the tills and has two pallets of 5l bottles dropped in the middle of the soft drinks section.

    That sort of thing is probably why RTE is hesitating to issue a warning.


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    #966
    Pintman Paddy Losty
    Registered Users Posts: 1,913 ✭✭✭Pintman Paddy Losty


    People are losing the run of themselves. It's not the end of the world. It'll just be windy and wet on Monday and if you're not by the sea you'll be fine.


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    #967
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    Slight change of wording by ME

    "Hurricane Ophelia is expected to transition to a post tropical storm as it approaches our shores on Monday bringing severe winds and stormy conditions"


    You mean there's a possibility it might not transition?

    What's the defining difference between a hurricane and a post tropical storm?


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    #968
    sdanseo
    Registered Users Posts: 9,233 ✭✭✭sdanseo


    Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »
    People are losing the run of themselves. It's not the end of the world. It'll just be windy and wet on Monday and if you're not by the sea you'll be fine.

    This is Ireland, a 200km wide island. Nearly everyone is by the sea.

    We have a red warning and recent evidence of still further intensification towards Cat 3. Yes, all it takes is a minor change of track to miss us completely, but that's no reason to be complacent. Current indications are for a direct hit and if you're wondering what that means, take a leaf out of Bastardi's book and read this:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Debbie_(1961)
    touts wrote: »
    My local tesco has moved bottled water to beside the tills and has two pallets of 5l bottles dropped in the middle of the soft drinks section.

    That sort of thing is probably why RTE is hesitating to issue a warning.

    Where's this?


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    #969
    km79
    Registered Users Posts: 48,170 ✭✭✭✭km79


    Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »
    People are losing the run of themselves. It's not the end of the world. It'll just be windy and wet on Monday and if you're not by the sea you'll be fine.
    Ridiculous statement
    If it goes as forecast there will be plenty of damage and disruption inland


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    #970
    server down
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,613 ✭✭✭server down


    Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »
    People are losing the run of themselves. It's not the end of the world. It'll just be windy and wet on Monday and if you're not by the sea you'll be fine.

    Thanks for your expertise.


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    #971
    Rikand
    Registered Users Posts: 20,348 ✭✭✭✭Rikand


    How are the Azores going to be affected by this ?

    A cat 3 hurricane passing near/through them will surely be pretty devastating


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    #972
    mirrorwall14
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,751 ✭✭✭mirrorwall14


    sdanseo wrote: »
    This is Ireland, a 200km wide island. Nearly everyone is by the sea.

    We have a red warning and recent evidence of still further intensification towards Cat 3. Yes, all it takes is a minor change of track to miss us completely, but that's no reason to be complacent. Current indications are for a direct hit and if you're wondering what that means, take a leaf out of Bastardi's book and read this:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Debbie_(1961)



    Where's this?

    Maynooth have done this. It was funny because we picked up torches in the euroshop and were debating whether to grab some water and I was like, whatever about electricity we’re probably safe for water. If we need it then we’re ****ed. Then I went up the escalator and there it was!


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    #973
    Irish Steve
    Moderators, Motoring & Transport Moderators Posts: 6,521 Mod ✭✭✭✭Irish Steve


    touts wrote: »
    My local tesco has moved bottled water to beside the tills and has two pallets of 5l bottles dropped in the middle of the soft drinks section.

    That sort of thing is probably why RTE is hesitating to issue a warning.

    If the Tesco is in Dublin, possibly true, if it's in Kerry, it may be very appropriate, as there will be a lot of people who have pumps attached to wells, and if this storm does come through with the intensity that now appears to be likely, there will be parts of the country that may not have power to run things like pumps for several days, so stocks of bottled water will be completely appropriate for them.

    In the same vein, not putting the red out on the 1300 forecast was leaving people in rural areas with less chance to get things like sandbags to hold down items and the like, some of these items are not "on the shelf" in local shops in rural areas, and there's not the same density of places open or available on a Sunday to get these sorts of items.

    Shore, if it was easy, everybody would be doin it.😁



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    #974
    Nettle Soup
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,312 ✭✭✭Nettle Soup


    3News just said Met Eireann are tracking this storm very carefully and will have more accurate warnings and metrics as the weekend progresses.

    Some people would have ME shout wolf too early at every given opportunity. I admire their restraint. They rarely get it wrong. People will be fully reminded and informed by Monday no matter what track or intensity the storm takes.


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    #975
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,133 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    It's worth noting for anyone outside the red warning zones that are in mountainous exposed areas to take care of themselves also.


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    #976
    mirrorwall14
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,751 ✭✭✭mirrorwall14


    Irish Steve wrote: »
    If the Tesco is in Dublin, possibly true, if it's in Kerry, it may be very appropriate, as there will be a lot of people who have pumps attached to wells, and if this storm does come through with the intensity that now appears to be likely, there will be parts of the country that may not have power to run things like pumps for several days, so stocks of bottled water will be completely appropriate for them.

    In the same vein, not putting the red out on the 1300 forecast was leaving people in rural areas with less chance to get things like sandbags to hold down items and the like, some of these items are not "on the shelf" in local shops in rural areas, and there's not the same density of places open or available on a Sunday to get these sorts of items.

    My guess it was a countrywide tesco decision, they usually have the same things on display towards the front of the stores so if the call went out for the red warning it was probably applied to everyone


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    #977
    server down
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,613 ✭✭✭server down


    jasper100 wrote: »
    Bit confused at your met eireann bashing. They called red warning long before it was upgraded in the thread title here.

    Prior to issueing the warning met eireann have been flagging it for several days now, as has this thread.

    Exactly 3 hours ago you called this a non event.


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    #978
    Hooter23
    Registered Users Posts: 1,507 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    Lia_lia wrote: »
    My brother is supposed to be flying out of Cork (on a plane :pac: ) on Monday. Wonder what will happen with flights..

    I think everyone will be flying out of Cork come Monday:pac:


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    #979
    Spanish Eyes
    Registered Users Posts: 15,919 ✭✭✭✭Spanish Eyes


    The flight radar forum on Aviation board could be interesting when the winds pick up.

    Go arounds, diversions. holds etc. I was on a plane into Dublin when a go around happened. Was very scary. The wings were flapping up and down in a terrific wind, but we got down in the end. Pilots are amazing, but as I understand it every airline has its own max wind speeds within which to attempt a landing.


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    #980
    firemansam4
    Registered Users Posts: 1,700 ✭✭✭firemansam4


    Nettle Soup wrote: »
    3News just said Met Eireann are tracking this storm very carefully and will have more accurate warnings and metrics as the weekend progresses.

    Some people would have ME shout wolf too early at every given opportunity. I admire their restraint. They rarely get it wrong. People will be fully reminded and informed by Monday no matter what track or intensity the storm takes.

    But ME have already shouted wolf on this, I think people are wondering why news channels are not reporting on it yet.
    Then again my thinking on it would be that it may take them a little time to get all the facts and details on it first before they can report on it themselves.


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    #981
    La.de.da
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,010 ✭✭✭La.de.da


    Just want to say thanks for all the relevant updates on this thread.

    Have the tealights and torches ready. Cigarettes and possibly some alcohol :) terrified of strong winds.

    Hopefully it will pass without too much disruption.


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    #982
    jasper100
    Closed Accounts Posts: 455 ✭✭jasper100


    server down wrote: »
    Exactly 3 hours ago you called this a non event.

    I didn't. But you keep up the bias.


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    #983
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,909 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »
    People are losing the run of themselves. It's not the end of the world. It'll just be windy and wet on Monday and if you're not by the sea you'll be fine.


    MOD NOTE Warning Recieved . Obey Forum Charter

    5. No trolling/goading posts which serve only to aggravate other users.


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    #984
    Nettle Soup
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,312 ✭✭✭Nettle Soup


    firemansam4 wrote: »
    But ME have already shouted wolf on this, I think people are wondering why news channels are not reporting on it yet.
    Then again my thinking on it would be that it may take them a little time to get all the facts and details on it first before they can report on it themselves.

    Yes they did when they absolutely knew it was a wolf. And fair play to them, I trust them completely. Hopefully the wolf is worn out from howling when it hits out shores :)
    I live in rural Galway so it will be interesting. I look forward to cleaning all the leaves out of the gutters on Tuesday :(


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    #985
    Pangea
    Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    For us In Donegal, do you think it will anything out of the ordinary?


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    #986
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,909 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    MOD NOTE:

    Lets get posts back on Topic.

    Refrain from personal attacks.

    If you have a problem with a post report it.


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    #987
    etselbbuns
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,848 ✭✭✭etselbbuns


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    Slight change of wording by ME
    "Hurricane Ophelia is expected to transition to a post tropical storm as it approaches our shores on Monday bringing severe winds and stormy conditions"
    O'Phelia, surely?


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    #988
    firemansam4
    Registered Users Posts: 1,700 ✭✭✭firemansam4


    Pangea wrote: »
    For us In Donegal, do you think it will anything out of the ordinary?

    I don't think we will get it much worse than what we can normally expect from a bad autumn storm up here, I think its the south that's going to get the brunt of this if it pans out.


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    #989
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 5,987 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/919186923767377920

    Ophelia more intense than expected, Will be interesting to see how the models interpret this on the next runs.


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    #990
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,909 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Mean speeds

    tempresult_qiz4.gif


    Gusts

    tempresult_vip8.gif


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    #991
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,566 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Weather Channel speculating that it is now a major Category 3 hurricane.


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