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"All Eggs In One Basket" Goalscorer Log 2016

tinodz

I have been trying a few bets like this in the back half of 2015, so want put efforts into a log and see how well it work. The core idea here is to bet on one single player in any given match in four different markets - Anytime, 2 or more, Hat Trick and First Goal. The main bet is always the anytime with a lesser stake on the other 3.

I think the betting layout will be like this...

Anytime €10
First Goalscorer €5
Two or More 2 €3
Hat Trick €2

Starting Budget: €100

I realise this could get messy quick - if pick five bad "Anytime" bets in a row from the start I go bust - but I am willing to give it a shot.

First Round of Bets:

James Wilson Anytime @ 3.00
James Wilson FGS @ 6.50
James Wilson 2 or more @ 14.00
James Wilson HT @ 67.00

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tinodz

tinodz wrote: »

First Round of Bets:

James Wilson Anytime @ 3.00
James Wilson FGS @ 6.50
James Wilson 2 or more @ 14.00
James Wilson HT @ 67.00

Bad start...

Budget: €80

tinodz

Second Round of Bets | Budget: €80

Joe Lolley Anytime @ 4.33
Joe Lolley FGS @ 10.00
Joe Lolley 2 or more @ 26.00
Joe Lolley Hat Trick @ 151.00

Huddersfield

tinodz

tinodz wrote: »

Second Round of Bets | Budget: €80

Joe Lolley Anytime @ 4.33
Joe Lolley FGS @ 10.00
Joe Lolley 2 or more @ 26.00
Joe Lolley Hat Trick @ 151.00

Huddersfield

Profit!

Joe Lolley Anytime = €43.30
Joe Lolley FGS = €50

Budget: €153.30

tinodz

Third Round of Bets | Budget: €153.30

Fraizer Campbell Anytime @ 4.33
Fraizer Campbell FGS @ 10.00
Fraizer Campbell 2 or more @ 29.00
Fraizer Campbell Hatrick @ 151.00

Crystal Palace

tinodz

tinodz wrote: »

Third Round of Bets | Budget: €153.30

Fraizer Campbell Anytime @ 4.33
Fraizer Campbell FGS @ 10.00
Fraizer Campbell 2 or more @ 29.00
Fraizer Campbell Hatrick @ 151.00

Crystal Palace

No luck today.

I am enjoying this all or nothing approach though!

Budget: €133.30

chompdown

Pretty interesting approach! Never heard of this before... What reasoning goes into the selections?

Good start anyway!

tinodz

Fourth Round of Bets | Budget: €133.30

Nahki Wells Anytime @ 2.25
Nahki Wells FGS @ 5.50
Nahki Wells 2 or more @ 9.00
Nahki Wells Hatrick @ 41.00

Huddersfield

chompdown wrote: »

Pretty interesting approach! Never heard of this before... What reasoning goes into the selections?

Good start anyway!

There is no highly complex reasoning behind it. Most of my picks are just players that I think stand out from the rest as prolific goalscorers, so I am putting my faith in them. Most of these are from The Championship, or League 1 and 2 (as I know those leagues best). Most (not all) of the players I am picking are in the early years of their careers and should continue to get better.

I do a small bit of research on the likes of Soccerway before making the bets, and tonight I have noticed Charlton have the second worse Away form in the league so maybe that will help the bet.

I think the only other thing I pay attention to is to make sure the "Anytime" part of the bet is over Evens. Once it is Evens, if that comes in I am a bit in profit regardless. The other three bets are then just nice extras. I tried a few of these bets over the course of 2015, and the most I got was three out of four. If I ever luck into all four that would be great.

tinodz

tinodz wrote: »

Fourth Round of Bets | Budget: €133.30

Nahki Wells Anytime @ 2.25
Nahki Wells FGS @ 5.50
Nahki Wells 2 or more @ 9.00
Nahki Wells Hatrick @ 41.00

Huddersfield

Nahki Wells scored the second goal of the game = €22.50.

The match ended 5-0 and Charlton had a red card. Could have been one of those games to see a Hat Trick in - but there was actually five separate goalscorers. The tiniest of profit for the day.

Budget: €135.80

redzerdrog

Interesting approach, be interested to see how it gets on over time

tinodz

Fifth Round of Bets | Budget: €135.80

Abel Hernandez Anytime @ 2.60
Abel Hernandez s FGS @ 5.50
Abel Hernandez 2 or more @ 1.00
Abel Hernandez Hat Trick @ 51.00

Hull

Hernandez has scored in the last two home games after a bit of a drought. Hope he is getting back on track. Cardiff can be atrocious away.

redzerdrog wrote: »

Interesting approach, be interested to see how it gets on over time

I am just happy it did not take a nosedive from the start. :P

chompdown

Interesting indeed! Unlucky with Wells last night only getting one...

The reason I asked about how you make your selections is because I would use a different approach. I think the key to winning long term is to find selections which are higher priced than they should be.

I've just taken a quick look at the two 8pm Prem games tonight and my selection would be Nacer Chadli at 3.5, 8.5 and 19 and 101 with Bet365. I've no idea if he will score but Bet365 are a bit too generous with their odds so thats why I'd pick him.

Hope Hernandez scores for you. I was very close to having a few euro on him to be champ top scorer before realing he was always going to South America for the international games. V good player!

Edit: Chadli on the bench so scrap that

tinodz

tinodz wrote: »

Fifth Round of Bets | Budget: €135.80

Abel Hernandez Anytime @ 2.60
Abel Hernandez s FGS @ 5.50
Abel Hernandez 2 or more @ 1.00
Abel Hernandez Hat Trick @ 51.00

Hull

Hernandez has scored in the last two home games after a bit of a drought. Hope he is getting back on track. Cardiff can be atrocious away.

Profit!

Abel Hernandez Anytime = €26.00
Abel Hernandez FGS = €27.50

Budget: €169.30

tinodz

Sixth Round of Bets | Budget: €169.30

Kemar Roofe Anytime @ 3.50
Kemar Roofe FGS @ 8.00
Kemar Roofe 2 or more @ 17.00
Kemar Roofe Hat Trick @ 81.00

Oxford

Hopefully Roofe will be on fire tonight... sorry.

tinodz

tinodz wrote: »

Sixth Round of Bets | Budget: €169.30

Kemar Roofe Anytime @ 3.50
Kemar Roofe FGS @ 8.00
Kemar Roofe 2 or more @ 17.00
Kemar Roofe Hat Trick @ 81.00

Oxford

Hopefully Roofe will be on fire tonight... sorry.

3 out of 4 winners. Roofe scored the only two goals of the game. Both came in the first half. Lots of profit!

Kemar Roofe Anytime = €35
Kemar Roofe FGS = €40
Kemar Roofe 2 or more = €51

Budget: €275.30

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

Your flying man! Great thread

tinodz

Seventh Round of Bets | Budget: €275.30

Jay Simpson Anytime @ 2.25
Jay Simpson FGS @ 5.00
Jay Simpson 2 or more @ 7.00
Jay Simpson Hat Trick @ 29.00

Leyton Orient

Lower odds than usual across the board on all markets, but this guy is in great form.

tinodz

tinodz wrote: »

Seventh Round of Bets | Budget: €275.30

Jay Simpson Anytime @ 2.25
Jay Simpson FGS @ 5.00
Jay Simpson 2 or more @ 7.00
Jay Simpson Hat Trick @ 29.00

Leyton Orient

Lower odds than usual across the board on all markets, but this guy is in great form.

No luck today. Exeter actually ended up winning the match 3-1 which was super surprising too. I have an urge to go for Vardy in the 5:30 game but not sure yet.

Budget: €255.30

tinodz

Eight Round of Bets | Budget: €255.30

Andre Gray Anytime @ 2.80
Andre Gray FGS @ 5.50
Andre Gray 2 or more @ 10.00
Andre Gray Hat Trick @ 67.00

Burnley

redzerdrog

tinodz wrote: »

Eight Round of Bets | Budget: €255.30

Andre Gray Anytime @ 2.80
Andre Gray FGS @ 5.50
Andre Gray 2 or more @ 10.00
Andre Gray Hat Trick @ 67.00

Burnley

I have the same bets done only on Chris Martin, this thread definitely put it in my head to do it though

tinodz

redzerdrog wrote: »

I have the same bets done only on Chris Martin, this thread definitely put it in my head to do it though

Good luck!

Hopefully both score a bunch

tinodz

tinodz wrote: »

Eight Round of Bets | Budget: €255.30

Andre Gray Anytime @ 2.80
Andre Gray FGS @ 5.50
Andre Gray 2 or more @ 10.00
Andre Gray Hat Trick @ 67.00

Burnley

Just noticed I forgot to add this to the total from a while ago. Vardy scored one goal that night - the second goal

Andre Gray Anytime = €28

Budget: €263.30

tinodz

Having a go tonight too...

Ninth Round of Bets | Budget: €263.30

Jamie Vardy @ 2.50
Jamie Vardy FGS @ 6.00
Jamie Vardy 2 or more @ 10.00
Jamie Vardy Hat Trick @ 41.00

Leicester

Pool's pressing nature might just suit Leicester'a counter attacking style. Vardy deserves a hat trick before the end of the season.

tinodz

tinodz wrote: »

Having a go tonight too...

Ninth Round of Bets | Budget: €263.30

Jamie Vardy @ 2.50
Jamie Vardy FGS @ 6.00
Jamie Vardy 2 or more @ 10.00
Jamie Vardy Hat Trick @ 41.00

Leicester

That boy did good! Two goals. First and second goal.

Jamie Vardy Anytime = €25
Jamie Vardy FGS = €30
Jamie Vardy 2 or more = €30

Budget: €328.30

This is going too well

The Reservoir Dubs Anchorman

tinodz wrote: »

That boy did good! Two goals. First and second goal.

Jamie Vardy Anytime = €25
Jamie Vardy FGS = €30
Jamie Vardy 2 or more = €30

Budget: €328.30

This is going too well

great selections man well done

tinodz

Tenth Round of Bets | Budget: €328.30

Sam Winnall @ 2.75
Sam Winnall FGS @ 6.00
Sam Winnall 2 or more @ 10.00
Sam Winnall Hat Trick @ 67.00

Barnsley

Not a big fan of betting on cup games, but giving this a shot anyway. Winnall always puts in a solid showing. Also, seeing as the match is airing on Sky it might push him to give an even bigger effort

tinodz

tinodz wrote: »

Tenth Round of Bets | Budget: €328.30

Sam Winnall @ 2.75
Sam Winnall FGS @ 6.00
Sam Winnall 2 or more @ 10.00
Sam Winnall Hat Trick @ 67.00

Barnsley

Not a big fan of betting on cup games, but giving this a shot anyway. Winnall always puts in a solid showing. Also, seeing as the match is airing on Sky it might push him to give an even bigger effort

No luck this time. He had a few solid chances too.

Budget: €308.30

tinodz

Eleventh Round of Bets | Budget: €308.30

Andre Gray Anytime @ 3.00
Andre Gray FGS @ 6.50
Andre Gray 2 or more @ 17.00
Andre Gray Hat Trick @ 81.00

Burnley

There are too many players I like in this game. I could make the same bet on 4 different players. Went for Grey. I

tinodz

tinodz wrote: »

Eleventh Round of Bets | Budget: €308.30

Andre Gray Anytime @ 3.00
Andre Gray FGS @ 6.50
Andre Gray 2 or more @ 17.00
Andre Gray Hat Trick @ 81.00

Burnley

There are too many players I like in this game. I could make the same bet on 4 different players. Went for Grey. I

No luck again. Burnley won, but Vokes got the goal.

Budget: €288.30

tinodz

Twelfth Round of Bets | Budget: €288.30

Martin Samuelsen Anytime @ 3.80
Martin Samuelsen FGS @ 10.00
Martin Samuelsen 2 or more @ 23.00
Martin Samuelsen Hat Trick @ 151.00

Peterbrough

tinodz

Twelfth Round of Bets | Budget: €288.30

Martin Samuelsen Anytime @ 3.80
Martin Samuelsen FGS @ 10.00
Martin Samuelsen 2 or more @ 23.00
Martin Samuelsen Hat Trick @ 151.00

Peterbrough